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  • FertilityandtheLatinoThreatNarrative

    LeoR.ChavezUSCSCAGAnnualDemographicWorkshop

    June1,2015

  • Stanford Univ. Press

    For information or to purchase go to:

    www.sup.org

  • DowellMyerscalledforanewnarrativeaboutdemographicrealityofCalifornia.

    Oldnarrativedatingfrom1990semphasizedastatebesiegedbyinvaders,especiallybypeoplefromothercountries.

  • ThreeThemesintheLatinoThreatNarrative

    Theinvasion ALatinoReconquest oftheSouthwest Latinafertility:

    Fertilityoutofcontrol Latinasimmutable

  • PaulEhrlichThePopulationBomb:PopulationControlortheRacetoOblivion?1968

  • Leonard F. Chapman, Jr., Commissioner of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, U.S. News & World Report June 22, 1974:30

    Were very close in this country to a zero population growth through births. As we get closer to that zero growth, immigration will become an even larger percentage of the population increase.

  • August6,1984

  • TheNewYorkTimes,Dec.18,1984

    HISPANICFERTILITYINU.S.FOUNDABOVENORM

    ''ThefertilityrateforwomenofHispanicoriginwas97.5livebirthsper1,000womenaged1544years,50percenthigherthantheratefornonHispanicwomen,''theNationalCenterforHealthStatisticsreported.

  • The social science literature has often portrayed Mexican-American women as sacrificed to childbearing. An assumption behind these evaluations of Mexican-American women is that traditional cultural values and religious traditions promote attitudes favorable to continuous childbearing, opposition to contraception, and opposition to abortion.

    Hortencia Amaro 1988

  • TheLatinOnslaught

    Willthepresentmajoritypeaceablyhandoveritspoliticalpowertoagroup(LatinAmericanimmigrants)thatissimplymorefertile?Onthedemographicpoint:Perhapsthisisthefirstinstanceinwhichthosewiththeirpantsuparegoingtogetcaughtbythosewiththeirpantsdown!

    JohnTanton,pastPresidentZeroPopandfounderofFAIR

  • U.S. Population1970 and 2050 (Projected)

    black11.0%

    API1.0%

    White83.0%

    Latino5.0%

    Black 13.0%

    API10.0%

    White52.0%

    Latino25.0%

    1970 2050

    1990sandTheBrowningofAmerica

  • SamuelP.Huntington,ForeignPolicy2004

    Inthisnewera,thesinglemostimmediateandmostseriouschallengetoAmericastraditionalidentitycomesfromimmenseandcontinuingimmigrationfromLatinAmerica,especiallyfromMexico,andthefertilityratesofthoseimmigrantscomparedtoblackandwhiteAmericannatives.

  • JohnGibsonFOXNewsMakemoreWhitebabies.

  • PopulationControl?

    Oldslogan: RECREATEBUTDONTPROCREATE

    NewSlogan: PROCREATEDONTJUSTRECREATE

  • DEMOGRAPHICREALITIES

  • Declines in FertilityMexican-origin Women and Anglo Women, ages

    18-44

    Source: U.S. Census

    3.5

    1.27

    4.4

    1.81

    1970 20000

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Mexican-origin women Anglo women

  • Total Children Ever BornMexican-origin Women and Anglo Women

    20-40 Years of age in Greater Los Angeles Area by Generations in U.S.

    Source: IMMLA 2004--05

    2.3

    1.5 1.5

    1.2

    1.5

    0.7

    Mex 1.0 Mex 1.5 Mex 2nd Mex 3rd Mex 4+ Anglo0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    CEB

  • Total Children Ever BornLatinas and Anglo Women in Orange County

    Source: CRLGS 2006 Survey

    2.38

    1.631.78

    2.21

    1.91

    1.28 1.271.16

    Latina immig 2nd Gen 3rd Gen Anglos0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    All ages

  • LosAngelesTimesOctober4,2004

  • U.S.BirthRateNotRecessionproof:DeclinesforSecondYear

    BySusanBradyHEALTHNEWSSunday,29August2010

  • What happens 18 years from now?

    Demand for immigrant labor?

  • Mexican Immigrationand Fertility Decline

  • 2.22in2012

  • NewNarrative

    TheLatinoThreat Timetoputittorest Counterproductive Newnarrative?

  • CENTER FOR IMMIGRATION STUDIES Washington DC 3/12/15

    Immigration Is No Fix for an Aging SocietyReport finds immigrants 'fertility dropping faster than natives'

    "Those, like Jeb Bush, who assert that 'immigrants are more fertile' and as a result they will 'rebuild the demographic pyramid' are grossly exaggerating the impact of immigration," stated Dr. Steven Camarota, the Center's Director of Research.

    "Immigration's impact on the aging of American society is actually quite small, and the rapid decline in immigrant fertility means it's getting even smaller."

  • LATIMES5/24/2015

    CAPGroupsaysCaliforniaimmigrationpoliciescontributedtodrought

    http://www.latimes.com/local/california/lameimmigrationdrought20150524story.html

    Lessimmigration=lesspopulationgrowthandwateruse

    Immigrantsproblemratherthanresource

  • Fertiltiy Ratesin Selected Countries

    Source: Population Reference Bureau's 2002 Population Data Sheet

    1.6

    1.5

    1.3

    1.2

    1.3

    1.3

    1.3

    1.3

    1.3

    1.2

    1.2

    1.2

    1.1

    Northern Europe

    Western Europe

    Southern Europe

    Eastern Europe

    Japan

    Italy

    Germany

    Austria

    Russia

    U.S.

    Spain

    Romania

    Czech Republic

    0 0.5 1 1.5 2

    % Foreign-born

  • Stock of Foreign-born PeopleAs Percentage of Total Population

    Source: EuroStat, 2006

    2322.5

    1912.512.312.1

    10.510.2109.9

    8.57

    65.2

    4.53

    1.9

    AustraliaSwitzerland

    CanadaGermany

    U.S.SwedenIrelandGreece

    NetherlandsFrance

    UKNorway

    PortugalSpain

    Czech RepHungary

    Poland

    0 5 10 15 20 25 30

    % Foreign-born

  • Germanparentsnoweligibleforbenefitsaimedatreversingfallingbirthrate

    BySTEPHENGRAHAMTheAssociatedPressOCREGISTERJan.3,2007

  • TheGuardianFebrurary12,2015

    Italyisa'dyingcountry'saysministerasbirthrateplummets

    Newfigures[for2014]showthelowesttotalnumberofbirthssincetheformationofthemodernItalianstate[in1861]

  • SexEducationinEuropeTurnstoUrgingMoreBirths

    DannyHakim,NYTimesApril8,2015 ItisallpartofanotsosubtlepushinEuropetoencouragepeopletohavemorebabies.Denmark,likeanumberofEuropeancountries,isgrowingincreasinglyanxiousaboutlowbirthrates.Thoseconcernshaveonlybeenintensifiedbytheregionsfinancialandeconomiccrisis,withhighunemploymentratesamongtheyoungviewedasdiscouragingpotentialparents.

  • Students at a Copenhagen school during a discussion of sex led by a group seeking to raise Denmark's birth rate. Credit Sofie Amalie Klougart for The New York Times