FertilityandtheLatinoThreatNarrative

LeoR.ChavezUSCSCAGAnnualDemographicWorkshop

June1,2015

Stanford Univ. Press

For information or to purchase go to:

www.sup.org

DowellMyerscalledforanewnarrativeaboutdemographicrealityofCalifornia.

Oldnarrativedatingfrom1990semphasizedastatebesiegedbyinvaders,especiallybypeoplefromothercountries.

ThreeThemesintheLatinoThreatNarrative

Theinvasion ALatinoReconquest oftheSouthwest Latinafertility:

Fertilityoutofcontrol Latinasimmutable

PaulEhrlichThePopulationBomb:PopulationControlortheRacetoOblivion?1968

Leonard F. Chapman, Jr., Commissioner of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, U.S. News & World Report June 22, 1974:30

Were very close in this country to a zero population growth through births. As we get closer to that zero growth, immigration will become an even larger percentage of the population increase.

August6,1984

TheNewYorkTimes,Dec.18,1984

HISPANICFERTILITYINU.S.FOUNDABOVENORM

''ThefertilityrateforwomenofHispanicoriginwas97.5livebirthsper1,000womenaged1544years,50percenthigherthantheratefornonHispanicwomen,''theNationalCenterforHealthStatisticsreported.

The social science literature has often portrayed Mexican-American women as sacrificed to childbearing. An assumption behind these evaluations of Mexican-American women is that traditional cultural values and religious traditions promote attitudes favorable to continuous childbearing, opposition to contraception, and opposition to abortion.

Hortencia Amaro 1988

TheLatinOnslaught

Willthepresentmajoritypeaceablyhandoveritspoliticalpowertoagroup(LatinAmericanimmigrants)thatissimplymorefertile?Onthedemographicpoint:Perhapsthisisthefirstinstanceinwhichthosewiththeirpantsuparegoingtogetcaughtbythosewiththeirpantsdown!

JohnTanton,pastPresidentZeroPopandfounderofFAIR

U.S. Population1970 and 2050 (Projected)

black11.0%

API1.0%

White83.0%

Latino5.0%

Black 13.0%

API10.0%

White52.0%

Latino25.0%

1970 2050

1990sandTheBrowningofAmerica

SamuelP.Huntington,ForeignPolicy2004

Inthisnewera,thesinglemostimmediateandmostseriouschallengetoAmericastraditionalidentitycomesfromimmenseandcontinuingimmigrationfromLatinAmerica,especiallyfromMexico,andthefertilityratesofthoseimmigrantscomparedtoblackandwhiteAmericannatives.

JohnGibsonFOXNewsMakemoreWhitebabies.

PopulationControl?

Oldslogan: RECREATEBUTDONTPROCREATE

NewSlogan: PROCREATEDONTJUSTRECREATE

DEMOGRAPHICREALITIES

Declines in FertilityMexican-origin Women and Anglo Women, ages

18-44

Source: U.S. Census

3.5

1.27

4.4

1.81

1970 20000

1

2

3

4

5

Mexican-origin women Anglo women

Total Children Ever BornMexican-origin Women and Anglo Women

20-40 Years of age in Greater Los Angeles Area by Generations in U.S.

Source: IMMLA 2004--05

2.3

1.5 1.5

1.2

1.5

0.7

Mex 1.0 Mex 1.5 Mex 2nd Mex 3rd Mex 4+ Anglo0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

CEB

Total Children Ever BornLatinas and Anglo Women in Orange County

Source: CRLGS 2006 Survey

2.38

1.631.78

2.21

1.91

1.28 1.271.16

Latina immig 2nd Gen 3rd Gen Anglos0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

All ages

LosAngelesTimesOctober4,2004

U.S.BirthRateNotRecessionproof:DeclinesforSecondYear

BySusanBradyHEALTHNEWSSunday,29August2010

What happens 18 years from now?

Demand for immigrant labor?

Mexican Immigrationand Fertility Decline

2.22in2012

NewNarrative

TheLatinoThreat Timetoputittorest Counterproductive Newnarrative?

CENTER FOR IMMIGRATION STUDIES Washington DC 3/12/15

Immigration Is No Fix for an Aging SocietyReport finds immigrants 'fertility dropping faster than natives'

"Those, like Jeb Bush, who assert that 'immigrants are more fertile' and as a result they will 'rebuild the demographic pyramid' are grossly exaggerating the impact of immigration," stated Dr. Steven Camarota, the Center's Director of Research.

"Immigration's impact on the aging of American society is actually quite small, and the rapid decline in immigrant fertility means it's getting even smaller."

LATIMES5/24/2015

CAPGroupsaysCaliforniaimmigrationpoliciescontributedtodrought

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/lameimmigrationdrought20150524story.html

Lessimmigration=lesspopulationgrowthandwateruse

Immigrantsproblemratherthanresource

Fertiltiy Ratesin Selected Countries

Source: Population Reference Bureau's 2002 Population Data Sheet

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

Northern Europe

Western Europe

Southern Europe

Eastern Europe

Japan

Italy

Germany

Austria

Russia

U.S.

Spain

Romania

Czech Republic

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

% Foreign-born

Stock of Foreign-born PeopleAs Percentage of Total Population

Source: EuroStat, 2006

2322.5

1912.512.312.1

10.510.2109.9

8.57

65.2

4.53

1.9

AustraliaSwitzerland

CanadaGermany

U.S.SwedenIrelandGreece

NetherlandsFrance

UKNorway

PortugalSpain

Czech RepHungary

Poland

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

% Foreign-born

Germanparentsnoweligibleforbenefitsaimedatreversingfallingbirthrate

BySTEPHENGRAHAMTheAssociatedPressOCREGISTERJan.3,2007

TheGuardianFebrurary12,2015

Italyisa'dyingcountry'saysministerasbirthrateplummets

Newfigures[for2014]showthelowesttotalnumberofbirthssincetheformationofthemodernItalianstate[in1861]

SexEducationinEuropeTurnstoUrgingMoreBirths

DannyHakim,NYTimesApril8,2015 ItisallpartofanotsosubtlepushinEuropetoencouragepeopletohavemorebabies.Denmark,likeanumberofEuropeancountries,isgrowingincreasinglyanxiousaboutlowbirthrates.Thoseconcernshaveonlybeenintensifiedbytheregionsfinancialandeconomiccrisis,withhighunemploymentratesamongtheyoungviewedasdiscouragingpotentialparents.

Students at a Copenhagen school during a discussion of sex led by a group seeking to raise Denmark's birth rate. Credit Sofie Amalie Klougart for The New York Times