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Towards an integrated model of management and quality control for

population and housing censuses, at the local administrative level

Fernando Casimiro, INE/NSI - Portugal E-mail: fernando.casimiro@ine.pt

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Main historic features

• Modern set since 1864, almost every ten years;• 2 censuses at the same time since 1970, with a

larger content on housing;• Specific legislation for every one of them with

special emphasis on the local government’s involvement;

• Model of traditional census;• Growing concern with quality assurance and

demonstration, mostly in the recent decades.

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Why the role of local governments?• Since 1976 local governments restarted to be elected on political

elections every 4 years;• Main source of funding of local governments is the transfer of funds

made by central government and census data play a key role on it ;• Municipal Directive Plans (PDMs) constitute the most important

instrument on planning and management for their territory;• More and more the local authorities are very concerned about their

population and territory management either because they are losing population or they need to increase the investment attraction of their territory on the basis of sustainability;

• And … census data still remain the most important source of statistical data at the local level.

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Fieldwork organization/Territory and statistical areas

• Portugal (92.090 km2)• NUTS I – 3 regions (Mainland- 88.967 km2; Azores-

2.322 km2; Madeira- 801 km2)• NUTS II – 7 regions• NUTS III – 30 regions• NUTS IV/LAU1 – 308 municipalities• NUTS V/LAU2 – 4.241 parishes• Statistical section (it corresponds to the working area for

an enumerator, containing about 300 housing units) – 16094

• Statistical subsection – 177.893• Locality – 26.898

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Fieldwork organization/Census

• National, assured by INE-Census Department– Regional, assured by Regional Directorates

(7)• Local/Municipalities assured by Municipal

Delegates (450)

–Local/Parishes – assured by Parish Coordinators(4.241)

» Enumerators- Statistical Section (16.094)

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Quality Assurance and Control Programme

• Basic assumption: If we control the quality at the lower levels, results at the upper levels are much more consistent;

• Control of the execution process:– Selection, training and technical evaluation of the

regional and local participants;– Delivery and collection of questionnaires;

• Analysis of indexes and alternative data sources:– Contribution to the “Alert System”;

• Post Enumeration Survey (PES), as source of final results on the quality.

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Quality control on delivery and collection of questionnaires

• Permanent control throughout the building cover sheet;

• Systematic sample of 5% with some core questions (occupancy status and number of rooms in the housing units and number of resident persons in the private household) and linked to specific payment;

• Alert system, installed in the laptop of the municipal delegate.

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Alert System results on improving additional controls

• About 74% of the parishes had additional chekings:– 457 (11%) parishes whose results, on population and

housing units, were outside the estimated interval;– 1.259 (30%) parishes whose results, on population

only, were outside the estimated interval;– 1.434 (33%) parishes whose results, on housing units

only, were outside the estimated interval.

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Monitoring system for management and quality control

• Integration on the basis of:– Physical results achieved and checked;– Payments connected and depending on

physical results;– Software available (AOCTC) at the local level

( Laptops of Municipal Delegates) and connected to the upper levels;

– Obligation to explain the reasons why such deviations occur.

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Main results and conclusions

• Main results and conclusions:– Net coverage rates very well accepted

by the users;– Final assessment, very positive, made

by Local Governments;– For the first time, final results of PES on

coverage and content analysis, disseminated on an autonomous publication.

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Appointments for 2011

• Keeping and improving the role of local governments;• Alert system with more updated and better weighted

indicators in order to reduce substantially the control burden, using several and more precise intervals to decide additional checks;

• Internet response must be incorporated into the local alert system as soon as it arrives to the central system;

• User friendly software is being evaluated in order to turn the AOCTC even more friendly and reliable on data transmission;

• Final data quality indicators must be produced and kept at the NUTS II level.

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Thank you very much for your attention!