Fernandes - Towards Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Synergies and Trade-offs
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Towards Climate Change Adap4on and Mi4ga4on: Synergies and Tradeoffs Erick CM Fernandes Adviser, Natural Resource Management and Climate Change, [LCSAR] The World Bank, Washington DC.
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Erick Fernandes (World Bank) Towards climate change adaptation and mitigation: Synergies and trade-offs (presentation from CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)
Transcript of Fernandes - Towards Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Synergies and Trade-offs
Towards Climate Change Adap4on and Mi4ga4on:
Synergies and Trade-‐offs
Erick CM Fernandes Adviser,
Natural Resource Management and Climate Change, [LCSAR] The World Bank, Washington DC.
75% of the world’s poor are rural and most are involved in farming
Source: World Bank, WDR 2008
In the 21st century, agriculture remains fundamental for poverty reduc4on, economic growth and environmental sustainability (WDR 2008)
Growing popula4on to 9 billion by 2050 Agricultural produc4vity needs to grow by ~2% per yr
CC Impacts on Ag and Food Security
• Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. • Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops
while encouraging weed and pest prolifera4on. • Changes in precipita4on paYerns increase the likelihood of short-‐
run crop failures and long-‐run produc4on declines. • Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the
world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be nega4ve, threatening global food security.
• Popula4ons in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are likely to be the most seriously affected.
• In 2005, nearly half of the economically ac4ve popula4on in developing countries—2.5 billion people—relied on agriculture for its livelihood.
• Today, 75 percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas.
Human well-‐being will be nega.vely affected by climate change
• In developing countries, climate change will cause yield declines for the most important crops. South Asia will be par4cularly hard hit.
• Climate change will result in addi.onal price increases for the most important agricultural crops–rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Higher feed prices will result in higher meat prices. As a result, climate change will reduce the growth in meat consump4on slightly and cause a more substan4al fall in cereals consump4on.
• Calorie availability in 2050 will not only be lower than in the no–climate-‐change scenario—it will actually decline rela.ve to 2000 levels throughout the developing world.
• By 2050, the decline in calorie availability will increase child malnutri.on by 20 % rela4ve to a world with no climate change. Climate change will eliminate much of the improvement in child malnourishment levels that would occur with no climate change.
• Thus, aggressive agricultural produc.vity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion are needed to raise calorie consump4on enough to offset the nega4ve impacts of climate change on the health and well-‐being of children.
IFPRI, 2009
% change in runoff by 2050
• Many of the major “food-‐bowls” of the world are projected to become significantly drier
• Globally there will be more precipita.on • Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run off • A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America, northern
Brazil, west and south Africa)
Projected Change in Frequency of Extreme Events in next 20 years
“Minnesota’s state climatologist, Jim Zandlo, has concluded that no fewer than three “thousand-‐year rains” have occurred in the past seven years in our part of the state.” Jack Hedin, farmer southern Minn – op ed piece in NY Times, Nov 27, 2010
Tipping Elements in the Earth System
(Lenton, Held, Kriegler, Hall, Lucht, Rahmstorf, Schellnhuber, NATURE, 2008)
Examples of Local to Global Impacts of Land Cover and Land Use Changes
Impac4ng and Impacted by Climate Variability and Change
Lake Chad Bodelle depression
NASA Earth Observatory
Local Impacts of Dust
Dust from the Bodelle depression around shrinking Lake Chad
North America
South America
Europe
Global Impacts of Dust
Smoke/dust inhibits local rainfall
Impact from Indonesian Fire Stretching to Africa
Far Field Impacts of extensive agriculture
• Severe nega4ve impacts on human health • Reduced local rainfall & increased lightning! • Nega4ve impacts on biodiversity (most pollinator species “perish or flee”)
• Reduc4on in photosynthesis and Net Primary Produc4vity (NPP)!
Impacts of Smoke?
Poten.al Ecosystem & Livelihood Threats
Congo Rainforest Amazon
Rainforest
Dust
Smoke/CO/Black Carbon
CC Adapta.on-‐Mi.ga.on & Integrated NRM
• Market and policy failures • Externali4es and inter-‐linkages (land values?) • Long term dynamics (mul4ple asset poroolios!)
• Decisions across mul4ple ac4vi4es – Baselines (adequate for land and linked assets?) – Evalua4on approach given baselines and dynamics
– What hope for real 4me evalua4on & decisions? – Mul4ple agencies …seamless data interface??
• Climate Change & Resilience – Mi4ga4on & Adapta4on …feedback on (failed?) markets!!
– Spa4al data, spa4al analysis, differen4al synergies/tradeoffs
Corn domes4cated in Mexico 9000 yrs ago! – today a global crop backed by science!!
Source: NASA Earth Observatory, Nov. 27, 2010
In 2010, 819 million tons of corn were produced around the world, and the U.S. Midwest produced more than 300 million tons (cit. USDA), Corn, wheat, and rice provide 60 percent of the world’s energy intake.
What future for our best Crops?
Towards a Strategic Framework on Development for Climate Change (SFDCC)
Climate change “is a development, economic, and investment challenge. It offers an opportunity for economic and social transformaKon that can lead to an inclusive and sustainable globalizaKon. That is why addressing climate change is a criKcal pillar of the development agenda.”
Robert Zoellick -‐ United NaKons Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia, December 2007
World Development Reports
Why climate change may provide the s.mulus for change and encourage socie.es to adopt new techniques, and undertake difficult reforms:
1. Climate change will increase food prices
2. Rising energy prices might provide the s4mulus for reforms in water since they will increase costs of pumping/transporta4on and thus put a premium on efficient alloca4on
3. A carbon market might buy-‐down risk to farmers and help aggregate a large number of small disparate ac4ons. It might give the right incen4ves to protect the natural systems on which our agriculture and much else depends
WDR 2010: DEVELOPMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
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Sources and uses of grain
20 Source: The Regional Institute, Australia 2004, based on USAID data
The Prevalence of Food Inadequacy (PFI) focuses on major micronutrient challenges
Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD), Iodine Deficiency Disorder (IDDs), Iron Deficiency Anemia (IDA)
Basis for Food Security in an Uncertain Future?
• The world has over 50 000 edible plants. Just three of them, rice, maize and wheat, provide 60 percent of the world's food energy intake. Just 15 crop plants provide 90 percent of the world's food energy intake, with three rice, maize and wheat -‐ making up two-‐thirds of this.
• Although there are over 10 000 species in the Gramineae (cereal) family, few have been widely introduced into cul4va4on over the past 2 000 years. Rice feeds almost half of humanity.
• Large, untapped poten4al to harness improved nutrient sources from adapted annual and perennial food but as yet unimproved species (e.g. quinoa, amaranth, peach palm).
Food Security Paradigms! Improved, Produc4vity Enhancing Technologies Accessible to Farmers
Cropping System Diversifica4on for risk minimiza4on
Enhanced Environmental Services of agricultural landscapes
NRM can improve the produc.vity and resilience of
agricultural landscapes and increase food security while
reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
AgricultureLand-‐Use Change & Forestry 31%
Waste 3%
Other Energy Sector 13%
Transporta.on 12%
Manufacturing & Construc.on
11%
Electricity & Heat 27%
Industrial Processes
3%
Agricultural Landscapes have the
poten.al, through beeer
management to reduce up to 88% of
agriculture’s total annual emissions -‐
70% of this from developing
countries.
Sources of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Data from CAIT, WRI)
The Agricultural Landscape is Part of the Challenge and Part of the Solu.on
Good Science-‐Based Tech for Accessing Land… but absent tenure, ins4tu4ons, appropriate policies?
Crop produc4on… absent local knowledge, extension, appropriate technologies, markets??
Ag Mi.ga.on and Adapta.on Are linked –> Triple Dividend
Mi4ga4on in agriculture (reduce emissions) could have either: • (a) posi.ve adapta.on consequences (such as carbon sequestra4on
projects with posi4ve drought preparedness aspects) or • (b) nega.ve adapta.on consequences (for example, if heavy dependence
on biomass energy encourages large-‐scale reforesta4on with fast-‐growing species and reduces hydrological flows or increases the sensi4vity of energy supply to clima4c extremes).
Adapta4on (survive shocks) -‐driven ac4ons also have both • (a) posi.ve mi.ga.on consequences (as when residue returned to fields
to improve nutrient and water-‐holding capacity also sequesters carbon) or • (b) nega.ve mi.ga.on consequences (for example, an increased use of
nitrogen fer4lizer to overcome falling yield that leads to increased nitrous oxide emissions).
Improved and sustainable Ag Produc4vity!!
• Measures to increase the produc4vity of land and water (Adapta4on)
• Measures to protect land, water and biological resources from overexploita4on (Mi4ga4on)
• Ac4ons to ensure that trade can smooth consump4on between areas of surplus and areas of deficit (Adapta4on)
• Informa4on to help people at all levels manage resources beYer
Reducing pressures on land and water requires
WDR 2010: DEVELOPMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
Accelerate smallholder produc.vity increases for food security
Enhance sustainability and environmental services from
agriculture & market mechanisms for payments for
environmental services
Pursue mul.ple pathways out of poverty: smallholder farming,
farm labor market, rural non-‐farm employment, migra4on
Improve the quality of governance in sustainable land use
management at local, na4onal, and global levels.
Suggested Ac.ons
Integrated Natural Resource Management
• What is it?..more than assets, factor markets, ins4tu4ons?
• Mul4ple roles & contexts of land use… – NRM and ecosystem services (local to global footprints)….water?
– Produc4on landscapes (Rural, Peri-‐urban, Urban: issues & linkages)…………..water??
– Climate impacts +/-‐ (local, na4onal, regional and short to long term)……………………….WATER!!
– Governance (decentraliza4on, indigenous, poor and power, new business – land acquisi4ons)……WATER!!!
Payment for Environmental Services (PES)
• A mechanism to improve the provision of indirect environmental services in which: – Those who provide environmental services get paid for doing so (‘provider gets’)
– Those who benefit from environmental services pay for their provision (‘user pays’)
– Payments are condi4onal – Par4cipa4on is voluntary
Why & How -‐> PES?
Generates it’s own financing:
• Brings new financing not previously available for conserva4on Efficient:
• Focuses efforts where benefits of conserva4on highest and costs lowest
Poten4ally very sustainable: Not based on whims of donors, NGOs, but self-‐interest of service users and providers
For this to work, need to: • Base payments to providers on payments by users
• Actually deliver services: ge{ng the science right is cri4cal • Tailor mechanism to specific local condi4ons
Source: Pagiola, S. 2006
World Bank Support to PES
Source: Pagiola, S. 2006
Landscape Restora.on: Reforesta.on & Afforesta.on (WRI, 2010)
Fix the Billion Degraded ha!!
Understand & Build Upon Local Knowledge
Examples of World Bank support to Adapta4on-‐Mi4ga4on Ac4ons in Development Programs
Eastern Anatolia Watersheds, Turkey
Tradi4onal Grazing
• Access to common grazing land
• Impact on regenera4on of local forests/woodland
• Community-‐driven watershed planning and management to ensure sustainability of rehabilita4on impacts
Loess Plateau – China: From Degraded to Produc4ve & Resilient Landscapes
Examples of World Bank support to Adapta4on-‐Mi4ga4on Ac4ons in Development Programs
Photo: [email protected]
Madagascar: Crop Residue & Manure Management
for Reduced Nitrogen Losses
Pit to capture Crop Residues + Manure
Beginning of Cropping Season – pit empty
End of Cropping season – pit full
Nitrogen-‐rich compost back to fields Photos: [email protected]
Climate Change, Livelihoods & Risk
Important to assess & address: • Legal risk • Governance risks • Financial risks
Example of a Synergy-‐Tradeoff Synthesis Matrix for Land Use Types (Source: ASB Program)
Future of REDD+ Absent Sustainable Ag Component??
“Reducing emissions from deforesta4on and degrada4on (REDD) may curb carbon emissions, but the consequences for fire hazard are poorly understood…
In the Brazilian Amazon, fire occurrence increased in 59% of the area that has experienced reduced deforesta4on rates.
fire-‐free, agricultural land-‐management can substan4ally reduce fire incidence by as much as 69%. “
If sustainable fire-‐free agricultural land-‐management (e.g. AFOLU) areas is not adopted alongside the REDD mechanism, then the carbon savings achieved by avoiding deforesta4on may be par4ally negated by increased emissions from fires origina4ng on farms.
[Aragão and Shimabukuro, Science June 2010]
Tradeoff: Need to harness Forest Mi.ga.on – Ag Adapta.on Synergies e.g. In the Amazon, Forest Fires increased by ~60% in Areas of decreased deforesta4on!!
The Big Picture – Optimizing synergies and tradeoffs at the landscape scales – Hydrology!
Source: Calder, 2005
Optimizing synergies and tradeoffs from field to landscape scales
Example of a Cross-‐Sector Measurement and
Modeling Approach from Bhutan
Photo: [email protected]
Evapotranspiration
E
y 0 1 2
Rs
RL
S L
Es
E1
Q
Q
tG
R
B
Source: Richey, J. 2010
Provide improved platforms and tools for MRV of Carbon &GHG, vegetation and landcover, digital hydrology and biodiversity.
Support/provide community assessment and monitoring of multiple ecosystem services
Equip agencies with tools to evaluate environmental conditions, particularly in a changing world.
Support to regions which are internally data limited , and constrained by band-width (literally, but especially capacity)
Issues of concern (C stocks, dynamics, services) are intrinsically linked, in a geospatial, scaled world (where mass is conserved)
Data from multiple sources can serve to constrain, not confuse
Embedded models that couple sector information layers, integrate key drivers, and “bring data to life.”
Capable of evaluating multiple options and scenarios, what-if, and so what?”
To be relevant, must can convey information in accessible, even compelling , manner, to multiple audiences .
To enable a functional DIF - • Base data layers; • Directed data layers, focused on synthetic objectives; • Geospatially-explicit, process-based, cross-sector simulation models (requiring
data from the directed data layers). • Facilitated input/output (including visualizations); • Decision support system and scenario testing capabilities.
Hydrological Modeling Variable Infiltra.on Capacity (VIC)
Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegeta.on Model (DHSVM)
Photo: [email protected]
Simula4ng evapotranspira4on (ET) from local to na4onal scales using earth systems models
Source: J. Richey, U. of Washington
CC-‐related Ac4on Steps (1)
• Design and implement good overall development policies and programs -‐ the best climate-‐change adapta4on investments.
• Increase investments in agricultural produc4vity. Even without climate change, a major challenge is to meet the demands of 9 billion by 2050
• Reinvigorate na4onal research and extension programs and support partnerships (rural with research, public with private,
CC-‐related Ac4ons (2)
• Improve global data collec4on, dissemina4on, and analysis on the spa4al nature of agriculture need to be strengthened.
• Recognize that enhanced food security and climate-‐change adapta4on go hand in hand.
• Support community-‐based adapta4on strategies. -‐ strengthen their capacity to cope with disasters, improve their natural resource management skills, and diversify their livelihoods.
Pro-‐Poor Instruments
• Integrated Land & Water Management (Soil carbon, avoided deforesta4on, Rehabilita4on of degraded lands)
• Capacity strengthening (regional, na4onal, local) • Methodologies and transac4on costs
– New science and new technologies – Improved temporal and spa4al resolu4on
– BeYer handle on assessing synergies and tradeoffs – Empowering communi4es with knowledge and access to technologies (early warning, decision support, reloca4on, infrastructure…)
World Bank CC-‐related Lending Results • Climate proofing of the development poroolio: In fiscal year 2010,
88 percent of all country strategies discussed at Board mee4ngs substan4vely addressed climate-‐related issues, reflec4ng a steady growing trend (up from 15 percent in 2000-‐05, 32 percent in 2007, and 63 percent in 2009).
• Making development climate resilient has emerged as a major theme in suppor4ng poverty reduc4on and economic growth in Sub-‐Saharan Africa. From addressing drought risk in Ethiopia (second phase US$175 million) to watershed management in Kenya and Malawi (US$75.5 million)
• The La4n America and the Caribbean Region’s poroolio includes 170 ac4vi4es for just under US$3 billion in adapta4on and mi4ga4on; encompassing regional studies, country assessments, IBRD investment, and development policy lending
• There is a new genera4on of lending opera4ons that address policy and ins4tu4onal needs to tackle climate change. Over US$7.7 billion was provided in such Development Policy Opera4ons addressing climate change considera4ons to Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Morocco and Indonesia.
Climate Investment Funds • Deploying the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), a collabora4ve effort
among five mul4lateral development banks, developed and developing countries, and a broad range of stakeholders: – With over US$6 billion in pledges, the CIF have s4mulated innova4ve
work in more than 40 countries in renewable energy and other low-‐carbon technologies, climate-‐resilience and forestry. Fourteen Investment Plans have been endorsed under the CIF Clean Technology Fund (CTF), for a total of US$4.6 billion, leveraging about US$37 billion in addi4onal investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency and transporta4on.
– The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) approved in November 2008, raised US$1 billion, iden4fied nine pilot countries and two regions, and began disbursing funds in mid-‐2010.
– The other two programs under the CIF Strategic Climate Fund (SCF), • the Forest Investment Program (US$602 million in pledges) and • the Program for Scaling Up Renewable Energy in Low Income Countries (US$323 million in pledges), have now selected pilot countries.
Mobilizing Finance & Markets Mobilizing and facilita.ng client access to mul.ple sources of finance
for adapta.on, including catastrophe risk financing: • Weather Deriva4ves to protect farmers against adverse weather
events. IBRD intermediated first weather deriva4ve in a developing country: in 2008/09, about 2,600 farmers in Malawi were insured (US$2.5 million). Other examples include Cameroon, India and Nicaragua (crop-‐related) and Mongolia and Ethiopia (livestock).
• Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Op4on (CAT DDO), a con4ngent loan to provide immediate liquidity up to US$500 million to IBRD countries. Colombia and Costa Rica requested CAT-‐DDOs in 2008―for US$150 million and US$65 million. Guatemala used a Cat DDO approved in 2010 to finance reconstruc4on and other expenses a�er two major natural disasters struck that year (US$85 million).
• www.climatefinanceop4ons.org
Innova.ons in carbon finance
• The Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), to assist developing countries in reducing emissions from deforesta4on and forest degrada4on as well as through sustainable forest management (REDD+) (€165 million). The FCPF has 37 par4cipa4ng countries, of which 11 have already received grant alloca4ons for readiness work.
• The Carbon Partnership Facility (CPF), opera4onal in May 2010 with Euro 100 million, aims to scale up the use of carbon finance to accelerate mi4ga4on ac4vi4es post 2012.
Green Bonds for Adapta4on & Mi4ga4on
• The World Bank raised US$1.6 billion Green Bonds (25 issues in 16 currencies), specifically to support adapta4on and mi4ga4on ac4vi4es in client countries. This builds on the earlier Cer4fied Emissions Reduc4on (CER)-‐linked “COOL" bonds (a total of US$31.5 million was raised through two bonds with coupons 4ed to CERs generated by specified GHG-‐reducing projects in China and Malaysia) and notes linked to special equity indices that support clean energy and/or other eco-‐friendly sectors (approximately US$856 million was raised through five transac4ons).
• The IFC partnered with Standard & Poors to develop the first Global Emerging Market Carbon Efficiency Index. Launched in December 2009 at COP-‐15 in Copenhagen, the new index aims to encourage carbon-‐based compe44on among emerging-‐market companies and give carbon-‐efficient companies access to long-‐term investors.
On-‐Going WBG Adapta.on & Mi.ga.on Opera.ons
Empowering local ins4tu4ons and communi4es with geospa4al and 4me referenced knowledge, tools and incen4ves for:
• Conserving, beYer understanding, and using tradi4onal and cultural knowledge.
• Sustainable Intensifica4on of Agriculture and Improved NRM approaches,
• Mainstreaming Adapta4on and Mi4ga4on in Development
• Prepara4on to deal with climate variability, extreme events, and disaster
• Objec4ve results-‐based monitoring based on quan4ta4ve indicators, and
• BeYer and more resilient agriculture and rural livelihoods.
Challenges/Opportuni4es • The WBG is complemen4ng development assistance with
specialized grant-‐based resources to address addi4onal climate risks.
• The inclusion of agriculture in the post 2012 agreement on climate change is important due to strong linkages with food security and poverty allevia4on. BeYer understanding of methodologies on carbon soil management, emission accoun4ng and MRV is needed.
• Capturing Co-‐benefits ― economic, social, environment, local to global. More work needed to capture the urban, water, natural resource management, and transport co-‐benefits.
• Evolving the green growth agenda in agriculture and other sectors. Climate change policy can be linked to development to facilitate low carbon growth.
Suggestions for CCAFS Action • CCAFS comparative advantage is to summarize, synthesize,
and make accessible the considerable CGIAR “inter agroecological zone” experiences on improved technologies for adaptation and mitigation. See for example the modest WBG attempt HERE
• Organize and couple the above agriculture and natural resource management (NRM) components it to climate model (GCM, RCM) projections and higher resolution Landuse, hydrology, NRM models to provide Decision Support to Policy Makers. (<<-click)
• Synthesize the considerable empirical measurements and modelling outputs available to provide “synergy-tradeoff matrices” for major agroecozones and relevant landscape positions. The lack of “spatially relevant syntheses” is currently a major knowledge gap for harnessing DYNAMIC adaptation-mitigation synergies and minimizing tradeoffs in agroecosystems in the face of climate change.
