Fereidoon Sioshansi Menlo Energy Economics · Behind & beyond the meter How new BTM services will...
Transcript of Fereidoon Sioshansi Menlo Energy Economics · Behind & beyond the meter How new BTM services will...
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Behind & beyond the meterHow new BTM services will disrupt utility business model
3rd AIEE Energy Symposium11 Dec 2018Milan, Italy
Fereidoon SioshansiMenlo Energy Economics
San Francisco CAwww.menloenergy.com
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Thank you
Pleased to be back to Milan Thanks to AIEE organizers Present personal views Keen on your feedback
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Premise
Balance of power shifting to consumers Future of electricity is behind-the-meter Innovation & disruptions from new players
Intermediaries/orchestrators/aggregators Platforms brining buyers & sellers together
Peer-to-peer (P2P) sharing & trading Virtual power plants (VPPs)
Adding flexibility, integration of variable renewables Blockchain
No need for an intermediary or clearinghouse?
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Questions
What actually lies BTM? What is exciting about BTM? What can be done with BTM assets? How can individuals, groups, or communities of consumers be
aggregated so that the entire portfolio of BTM assets can be better utilized/optimized?
Critical for balancing load & demand in a future increasingly supplied by variable renewable resources
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Context
Energy transition 3Ds
What’s exciting? Opportunities behind-the-meter (BTM) The rise of aggregators, platforms, VPPs, P2P trading
Future? Storage => Better integration of supply & demand Consumers => prosumers => prosumagers => nonsumers
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Last 3 volumesrelevant to today’s discussions
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Next?
Behind & beyond the meter: How aggregation & optimization of loads, distributed generation & storage will disrupt utility business
Organize symposia Silicon Valley 6 Feb Florence, Italy 14-15 Feb Sydney/Melbourne 20-21 Feb London/Oxford 14-19 Mar Cambridge/Boston 28 May Berlin/Freiburg TBD
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FirstEnergy transition
3Ds De-carbonization Low carbon energy future Decentralization Distributed generation & storage Digitalization Harnessing value of data
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De-carbonization
179 countries have renewable “aspirations” 57 have 100% renewable electricity targets
25% of EU budget devoted to climate Solar exceeds coal/gas/nuclear combined
$280 billion invested in renewables in 2017
Renewables 20% of US generation Wind output exceeded hydro for first time in 2017
Germany totally renewable on some days California carbon-neutral by 2045
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Carbon neutral California by 2045Gov. Brown signing SB 100, 10 Sept 2018
Source: LA Times
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Decentralization700,000 solar homes in CA and counting
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Decentralization is real
Germany Millions of small generators
Australia Over 1 million rooftop PVs
California/Hawaii Both going 100% renewable
Puerto Rico Pair solar PVs + storage
Sub-Saharan Africa No grid? No problem
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Totally off grid… where there is no grid
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EV shadingDistributed, dis-connected & mostly self-sufficient
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Cut the cord!
Source: SolarPad.com
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Solar “augmentation”Exterior surface as energy source
c
Jaguar solar concept car, The Energy Post, 26 Oct 2017
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DigitalizationRemote monitoring & mgmt.: Compelling
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Most exciting?
Opportunities behind-the-meter (BTM) Historically ignored & under-appreciated No incentive to go behind-the-meter Nor could you do much even if you tried
Aggregators, platforms, VPPs, P2P trading New generation of players entering market Enabled by technological innovations Monitoring & managing BTM assets
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Add BTM to pictureHistorical business model stopped at the “meter”
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Source: LCOE: Renewable energy technologies, Fraunhofer Inst., Mar 2018
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What is BTM?
Electricity using devices Lights, HVAC washers/dryers, TVs/electronics, pumps, motors
Distributed generation Rooftop solar PVs
EVs Expected to take off
Distributed storage Batteries, hot/cold water tanks, other storage media
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BTM is big & getting bigger
Source: Annabel Wilton, BNEF, presented at Australian Clean Energy Summit, Sydney, July 2018
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Consumer => Prosumer
Source: Evaluating the benefits and costs of NEM laws in California, prepared for Vote Solar, Jan 2013
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EVsEnd of ICE?
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Driverless: Sooner or later
Source: Google’s Waymo self‐driving car
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Prosumer => ProsumagerJust add storage
Source: The Wall Street Journal 2 May 2015
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Distributed storageTesla’s $5 billion gigafactory near Reno, NV
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New electric company: Your homeWall Street Journal 21 Jan 2015
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Zero Net EnergyNew CA building code starting 2020
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ZNE officeApple’s new headquarter going beyond ZNE
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ZNE campus: Why not?Office parks, shopping malls, hospitals, universities, whole cities
Source: NREL
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BIPVsTurning exteriors of buildings into powerhouses
Source: Onyx
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CBD as powerhouseEntire surface of buildings generates power
Source: Skanska
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Solar tilesIn any color you like
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Solar window”Clearly electric”
Source: solarwindow.com
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Solar block, solar sidewalk
Source: Univ. of Exeter
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Integrated energy servicesTesla energy: PVs, EVs & storage
Source: Tesla unveils residential solar roof and new Powerwall battery, Utility Dive, 28 Oct 2016
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Buckingham Palace
Source: Aurora Solar
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Solar fit for the queen
Source: Aurora Solar
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Optimally designed
Source: Aurora Solar
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Beyond ZNE: Solar ordinanceCity of Lancaster, CA: 2 W per sq. ft. living space
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Next?Innovations in aggregation, platforms, VPPs
Why now? Technological advancements Compelling business case
What makes them exciting? Service innovation Ability to scale up at speed Disruptive as in Uber, Airbnb or worse
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Disruptors hard at workOr hardly working?
Source: http://www.yeloha.com/about
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BTM technologies
Zero Net Energy (ZNE) buildings Energy Storage Systems (ESS) EVs/electrified transport Trading platforms Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) Micro-grids, grid-parallel, grid-assisted Integrated energy services Aggregation, intermediation, optimization
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PlatformsMillions of proactive prosumers with complex interactions
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Value is in the platform
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Virtual power plantsGermany’s Next Kraftwerke: 4.5 GW, 5,400 participants
Source: Next Kraftwerke
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Micro-gridsWhere grid is unreliable as in Puerto Rico
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Storage value proposition?Use it or lose it!
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550 MWTopaz Solar Farm, San Luis Obispo, CA
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Proposed 2 GW CSPStorage, not generation, makes it attractive
Source: SolarReserve
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Mid-day sun = “over-generation”In many networks mid-day peaks have turned into troughs
Source: ISO
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CA Duck CurveMid-day dip instead of peak
Source: CAISO
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“California Duck” arrived early2020 projections realized in 2016
Data taken from CAISO website. Graph summarizes hourly data, 28 March – 3 April, 2013‐16Source: Blog posted by M. Fowlie, 2 May 2016
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Baseload becomes a problemVariable generation makes baseload a “nuisance”
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California over-generationRPS Curtailment in 2024 under a hypothetical 40% RPS Scenario
Source: Notice of ex parte communication by CAISO, CPUC, 3 Dec 2014
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StorageShave the peak, fill the valley
Source: CAISO
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Storage is more than batteriesFrom MWs & multiple MWhrs to kW & milliseconds
Source: World Energy Council, E-Storage: Shifting from cost to value, 2016
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Observations?
What actually lies BTM? Billions of devices Worth trillions of dollars Infrequently & poorly utilized, not integrated
What can be done with these assets? Enabled to play a proactive role in balancing load/demand
How? With great deal of difficulty Daunting scale, razor thin margins “Transaction costs will eat you alive”
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Customer stratification Over time, consumers will self-select what works best
Off-GridOff-Grid
MicrogridMicrogrid
ProsumageProsumage
Status QuoStatus Quo