Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook
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Transcript of Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook
Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook
Matt HourihanOctober 9, 2013for the Science Diplomats Club
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
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5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
DefenseDiscretionary
NondefenseDiscretionary
Mandatory
Net Interest
Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1962 - 2018
Source: Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014.© 2013 AAAS
Defense Discretionary
$120
[Defense R&D]$15
Nondefense Discretionary
$126
[Nondefense R&D]$16
Social Security$117
Medicare$31
Medicaid$14
Other Mandatory$100
Net Interest$53
Composition of the FY 1980 Budgetoutlays in billions of dollars
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.© 2012 AAAS
Defense Discretionary
$515[Defense R&D]
$66
Nondefense Discretionary
$517
[Nondefense R&D]$63
Social Security$1,026
Medicare$633
Medicaid$423
Other Mandatory$714
Net Interest$566
Composition of the FY 2017 Budget?outlays in billions of dollars
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.© 2012 AAAS
Emergent Budget Tendencies
Discretionary spending tends to be constrained… Early 1980s: nondefense constraints under Reagan
Late 1980s/early 1990s: spending caps
2011 Budget Control Act caps
While mandatory spending tends to grow Health care costs
Expanding beneficiaries, aging population
Medicare Part D, Affordable Care Act…
…versus failed efforts at control/constraint/reform
And, of course, anti-tax politics
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0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Federal R&D in the Budget and the EconomyOutlays as share of total, 1962 - 2014
R&D as a Shareof the FederalBudget (LeftScale)
R&D as a Shareof GDP (RightScale)
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2014. FY 2013 data do not reflect sequestration. FY 2014 is the President's request.© 2013 AAAS
*Keep in mind… Department of Defense technology development
activities have declined a little more than everything else
Enter FY 2014: Admin R&D Priorities Clear shift from D to R
And from Defense to Nondefense
Science + Innovation COMPETES Agencies
Advanced Manufacturing
Translational Medicine
Clean Energy + Environment
Defense technology cuts
STEM education
-14.8%
-8.2%
-7.8%
-7.3%
20.2%
66.5%
88.4%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Defense Activities
Agriculture
Health (NIH)
Environment Agencies
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
Commerce (NIST)
Applied Energy Programs
R&D Changes by Function Since 2004percent change from FY 2004 to FY 2014, in constant FY 2013 dollars
Source: AAAS Research and Development series, OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.© 2013 AAAS
The biggie for R&D: Returning discretionary spending to pre-sequester levels Every agency would receive major increases above FY13
Approps: What Have We Learned? Everybody still mostly likes science
and innovation funding… Though to varying degrees
But again, fiscal politics trumps all
Current Politics: The “Pong” Model?
Cut nondefense spending!
Raise revenues!
The science and innovation budget
Obviously, a very facile oversimplification…!
Some concluding thoughts… If increasing aggregate R&D is the goal…
Should the sci & innovation community take broader fiscal view?
Science as % of discretionary? Discretionary as % of total?
Social spending is popular. Responsible taxation is unpopular How to grapple with tradeoffs
If we’re to ask more of the taxpayer: Should science programs more directly tie to public outcomes?
Temporal problem: allocative spending and tax policy is about past & present, science and innovation spending is about future
The alternative: Glide along happy with what we’ve got?
Notes about shutdown… Intramural vs. extramural vs. contractors
i.e. ARS/NIH vs. universities vs. JPL
Impacts: radio telescopes; Antarctic station; meetings and symposia
Clock is ticking for some big-ticket items
A transient event, one hopes