Federal Aviation Administration Valuation of NextGen Capacity Benefits A Consumer Surplus Approach...
-
Upload
hannah-hensley -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
2
Transcript of Federal Aviation Administration Valuation of NextGen Capacity Benefits A Consumer Surplus Approach...
Federal AviationAdministrationValuation of NextGen
Capacity Benefits
A Consumer Surplus Approach to the Monetization of NASPAC Results
For: INNOVATIONS IN NAS-WIDE SIMULATION Conference
By: Michael Wells,NextGen Business Case Integration
Date: January 28, 2010
2Federal AviationAdministration
One Goal of NextGen is Increased Throughput
3Federal AviationAdministration
Defining the Benefits of Increased Throughput
NextGen
Current Throughput
Delay per Flt
Flights
Current System
Current Operating Point
Future Delay, with NextGen
Future Throughput,
without NextGen
Future Delay, without
NextGen
Future Throughput,with NextGen
CurrentDelay
Future Operating Point,with NextGen
Future Operating Point without NextGen
Avoided Delay
Additional Flights
4Federal AviationAdministration
Designing the Experiment in NASPAC
Three scenarios are modeled
1. "Do Nothing“ Case
– 2007 airport capacities, technologies, and procedures
2. “Runways Only“ Case
– New runways, runway extensions, and airport configurations included as they are projected to occur
3. “NextGen” Case ( = Runways + ATM Improvements )
– New runways, runway extensions, and airport configurations included as they are projected to occur
– NextGen technologies and procedures also included
5Federal AviationAdministration
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
45
67
89
1011
1213
1415
1617
1819
2021
2223
24
Loc
al H
our
Operations (/15 min. epoch)
2007
Bas
elin
eC
ap20
15_B
asel
ine
2015
-Trim
med
020
40
60
8010012
0140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dep
artu
res
(/hr)
Arrlivals (/h
r)
VM
CM
MC
IMC
0
20
40
60
80100
120140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Departures (/h
r)
Arr
lival
s (/h
r)
VMC
MMC
IMC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Depar
ture
s (/h
r)
Arrliv
als
(/hr)
VMC
MM
CIM
CModeling…
01020304050607080 45
67
89
1011
1213
1415
1617
1819
2021
2223
24L
ocal
Hou
r
Operations (/15 min. epoch)
2007
Bas
elin
eC
ap20
15_B
asel
ine
2015
-Trim
med
Weather CapacitiesDemand
FAA’s NASPAC is used to produce metrics for each scenario
6Federal AviationAdministration
0
50
100
150
200
250
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
Mil
lio
ns
To
tal M
inu
tes
of
Del
ay
Baseline
Runways Only
NextGen (Runways + ATC)
Less Delay in 2019 compared to the Baseline
v5d
21% delay reduction in 2019 compared with the baseline
21% delay reduction in 2019 compared with the baseline
Total Delay = Push-Back Delay + Taxi-Out Delay + Airborne Delay
7Federal AviationAdministration
More Flights in 2019 compared to the Baseline
v5d
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
JFK EWR ATL FLL PHX ORD SFO LGA MCO BUF
Ad
dit
ion
al O
per
atio
ns
Rel
ativ
e to
Bas
elin
e
NextGen
Runways
66,000 more flights in 2019 compared with the baseline
66,000 more flights in 2019 compared with the baseline
8Federal AviationAdministration
D
We Consider Delay as a Cost to the Passenger
Flights
$ per Flight
Baseline Delay Cost
9Federal AviationAdministration
Generalized Cost includes both Fare and Delay
Cost of Delay (ADOC + PVT)
Flights
LRMC
Note: We define “Long Run Marginal Cost” (LRMC) as the equilibrium cost of providing a flight in the absence of delay
Consumer Surplus
$ per Flight
LRMC +Delay Cost
$$
Direct Cost of Unimpeded Flight
D
10Federal AviationAdministration
Reducing Delay Increases Consumer Surplus
$
Flights
LRMC +Delay Cost
Note: We define “Long Run Marginal Cost” (LRMC) as the equilibrium cost of providing a flight in the absence of delay
$ per Flight
LRMC + NextGen Delay
$$
Increased Consumer
Surplus
LRMC
D
11Federal AviationAdministration
Change in Consumer Surplus Can be Calculated
$
Flights
Note: We define “Long Run Marginal Cost” (LRMC) as the equilibrium cost of providing a flight in the absence of delay
$ per Flight
LRMC + NextGen Delay
$$
LRMC
D
Increased Consumer
Surplus
LRMC +Delay Cost
12Federal AviationAdministration
Our Formula Assumes a Linear Demand Curve
$
Flights
Note: We define “Long Run Marginal Cost” (LRMC) as the equilibrium cost of providing a flight in the absence of delay
$ per Flight
$$
LRMC
D
Benefits = ( ∆ Delay Cost x Flights Base )
+ ½ ( ∆ Delay Cost x ∆ Flights )
Benefits = ( ∆ Delay Cost x Flights Base )
+ ½ ( ∆ Delay Cost x ∆ Flights )
13Federal AviationAdministration
Applying this Formula to NASPAC Results
Value of Avoided Delayfrom NASPAC (2019) = $ 4 Billion
Inputs
CategoryDelay Cost per minute
Delay Minutes per Flight
Delay Cost per Flight
Delay Minutes per Flight
Delay Cost per Flight
Push-Back Delay $29 1.8 $51 1.6 $46Taxi-Out Delay $35 6.1 $209 5.2 $178Airborne Delay $69 2.7 $183 1.5 $102
PVT (for avg flight ) $41 10.5 $434 8.2 $341
Changes($210) Cost per Flt $877 $667
66,065 Flights 18,913,726 18,979,791
Rectangle: Triangle:0.5
18,913,726 x 66,065x ($210) x ($210)
($3,981,110,152) ($6,952,941)
= $3,981 million = $7 million
Baseline NextGen2019
14Federal AviationAdministration
We Also Included Supplemental Estimates of Programs Not Modeled in NASPAC
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
An
nu
al B
enef
its
(FY
10$B
)
CDA Fuel Savings
Program Office Studies
NASPAC Delay Savings$ 2 Billion from other
studies
$ 4 Billion from
NASPAC
15Federal AviationAdministration
Summary of our Assumptions
• Long Run Marginal Cost is constant over time (i.e. – the airlines’ supply curve is flat)
• There is no “producer surplus”
• Cost-per-minute of delay is the same for all flights
• Our demand function is not explicit, but implied– Flights are trimmed (or added) based on capacity constraints
– Assume a linear demand curve for calculating consumer surplus
16Federal AviationAdministration
Thank you !
17Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Improvements Modeled in NASPAC
Solution Set Capability/Activity
Trajectory Based Operations
Delegated Responsibility for Horizontal Separation
Initial Conflict Resolution Advisories
Increase Capacity & Efficiency Using RNAV/RNP: RNAV Routes
Increase Capacity & Efficiency Using RNAV/RNP: Arrival/Departure Procedures
ADS-B Separation: Gulf High Altitude
DataComm Segment 1: Increased En Route Capacity
High Density
Improved Parallel Runway Operations: PRM-A
Improved Parallel Runway Operations: Closely-Spaced Parallel Operations
Time-Based Metering Using RNAV/RNP Route Assignments
Airspace Redesign: NY
Airspace Redesign: Chicago
Airspace Redesign: Houston
Flexible Terminal Areas Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures
18Federal AviationAdministration
Program Office Studies Used
• ADS-B
• DataComm Segments 1 and 2
• Oceanic In-Trail Climb and Descent
• Integrated Arrival/Departure Airspace
• Surface Traffic Management
• CATM - Work Package 2
• AIM Modernization
• NextGen Network-Enabled Weather (NNEW)
• SWIM Segment 1
• AJP CDA Fuel Savings