Februaryy, 8, 2011 AC&M – 3Q10 Report, Mayson Analysis – Voice Quarterly Metrics, Nov 8th 2010...
Transcript of Februaryy, 8, 2011 AC&M – 3Q10 Report, Mayson Analysis – Voice Quarterly Metrics, Nov 8th 2010...
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FOURTH QUARTER 2010
February 8, 2011y ,
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Agendag
About Q4 2011
Financial review
G id d C l di kGuidance and Concluding remarks
2010-10-202
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Highlights Q4• Group
– Total customer base amounting to almost 31 million customers.
g g
Total customer base amounting to almost 31 million customers. Net customer intake for the group 803,000
– Net sales grew by 2 percent. Currency-adjusted net sales grew by 8 percent driven by mobile sales8 percent, driven by mobile sales
– EBITDA grew by 10 percent. Currency-adjusted EBITDA grew by 18 percent. EBITDA margin amounted to 25 (23) percent
• Russia• Nordic• Central Europe & Eurasia• Western Europe p
2010-10-203
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Highlights Tele2 Russiag g
• 755,000 (1,149,000) new755,000 (1,149,000) new customers in Q4 2010
• Revenue grew by 24 t i Q4 2010percent in Q4 2010
2010-10-204
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Tele2 Russia: Mobile market overviewbe
rs (m
illion
)
Pene
tratio
n
Prep
aid
shar
e
Mob
ile s
ubsc
ri P
100%
NET ADDITIONSShare of adds (%) MTS Vimpelcom MegaFon Tele2
QUARTERLY CHURN PERCENT Tele2
40%
60%
80%
100%
10%
13%
Net
add
ition
s
Qua
rterly
chu
rn
‐20%
0%
20%
40%
4%
7%Q
2010-10-205
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Source: AC&M – 3Q10 Report, Mayson Analysis – Voice Quarterly Metrics, Nov 8th 2010
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Tele2 Russia: Mobile market overviewMOBILE MARKET SHARESPERCENT OF ACTIVE SUBSCRIBERS
MOBILE MARKET SHARESPERCENT OF RETAIL REVENUES
30%
35%
40%
PERCENT OF ACTIVE SUBSCRIBERS
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
mar
ket s
hare
s
mar
ket s
hare
s
15%
20%
25% Mobile TeleSystems
VimpelCom
MegaFon
T l 2 10 0%
15,0%
20,0%
,
Mobile TeleSystems
VimpelCom
MegaFon
T l 2
Mob
ile m
Mob
ile m
0%
5%
10%
2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Tele 2
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Tele 2
2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Average TELE2 share (old regions) – 38.5%Average TELE2 share (new regions) – 14%Average TELE2 share (total 37) – 28%
2010-10-206Source: AC&M Consulting – 3Q10 Report, Mayson Analysis – Voice Quarterly Metrics, Nov 8th 2010
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Tele2 Russia: Mobile data market
14%
BIG4 DATA REVENUE BREAKDOWN*TELE2 REGIONS, PERCENT, 3Q10
29%
22%
МТС
МегаФон
ВымпелКом
35%
Tele2
3%
BIG4 DATA TRAFFIC BREAKDOWN*TELE2 REGIONS, PERCENT, 3Q10DATA REVENUE
MTS Vimpelcom MegaFon Tele2
21%18%
3%МТС
МегаФон
ВымпелКом
Tele2
87
9
7
58%Data Rev, % of total Revenues
2010-10-207* Tele2 regions internal, BIG 3 – J’son & Partners, 2011, otherwise AC&M, 2010
Data Rev, % of total Revenues
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Highlights Tele2 Sweden g g• Increased mobile revenue growth to 12 percent
• Adding 20,000 (20,000) mobile customers, of which 65,000 (51,000) postpaid
• Mobile EBITDA margin 30 (33) percent due to a larger intake• Mobile EBITDA margin 30 (33) percent, due to a larger intake of smart phone customers and increased costs to JVs
• 4G launch in five major cities
2010-10-208
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Smart phones change the customers’ behavior
1 iPhone4
• Switching to a smartphone changes the customer’s behavior
– A customer used to a regular phone quickly increases its usage of voice, text and data.
Top 10 phone sales (Oct-Dec)
2 iPhone 3GS
3 Sony Ericsson X8
g– ASPU increases with almost 20%
4 HTC Desire
5 HTC Desire HD
6 Samsung E1080
7 Samsung Galaxy S
Smartphone user, who previously used a regular phone
Minutes* SMS MMS Data ASPU**8 HTC Wildfire
9 Nokia 1208
10 Sony Ericsson X10 Mini Pro
Up-lift 13% 21% 26% 975% 19%
* Out-going minutes** ARPU excluding operator revenue and installments
2010-10-209
10 Sony Ericsson X10 Mini Pro
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4G roll out
NETWORK AND TERMINALS COMMERCIALLY LAUNCHEDNETWORK AND TERMINALS PLAN ON TRACK
• 4G Core network installed and operational
COMMERCIALLY LAUNCHED15-11-2010
• Roll out started of new combined 2G and 4G network in Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö, Lund & Karlskrona
• >350 sites swapped to date
• 30 – 50 sites will be swapped each week
• Quality and speed improvements in the 2G network
• Emphasis on 2G quality and coverage• Emphasis on 2G quality and coverage
2010-10-2010
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Highlights Tele2 Western Europe
• The Netherlands
g g
The Netherlands- BBned acquisition completed
• Germany- Continued strong EBITDA contribution
in fixed telephony of 42 percent- Sold shares in Plusnet
• AustriaContinued good progress in- Continued good progress in restructuring program leading to sequential improvement of EBITDA contribution
2010-10-2011
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Tele2 Netherlands: Revenues, segments & focus areas
Share of total revenue 2010
Corporate Fixed & BB (22%) SME Fixed & BB (7%) Wholesale (10%)Tele2 NL network
LeeuwardenGroningen
Assen
IRU
Own Build
AlkmaarL d
• Tele2 Business is the largest competitor to KPN. That position will be developed & strenghtened by acquisition of BBned
&
• Big potential in addressing SME segment by building indirectchannel.
• Improved offering and
• Shift from voice to more data.
• Focus on Ethernet portfolio
UtrechtThe Hague
Arnhem
LelystadZwolle
Amsterdam DeventerEnschede
Nijmegen
Haarlem
Amersfoort
Rotterdam
London • Focus on Fixed Data & Telephony, strong position in the corporate & governmental segment.
market position via BBned(‘BBeyond’) with a strong indirect channel
Residential Fixed & BB (46%) Mobile (15%)Middelburg
Den Bosch
MaastrichtHeerlen
VenloEindhoven
Breda
BrusselsAntwerp
Frankfurt
Paris
Residential Fixed & BB (46%)
Focus on Broadband 3P bundles
Develop Best Deal position
Mobile (15%)
Currently MVNO based
Maastricht
2010-10-2012
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Highlights Tele2 Baltic Regiong g g
• Stabilizing economy leading to better operational environment
• Improved demand for postpaid services
• Investment in network capabilities, as demand for mobile internet increases
- Tele2 Estonia was awarded 4G license
2010-10-2013
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Highlights Tele2 Croatia
• Goal to deliver positive free cash flow
g g
Goal to deliver positive free cash flow 2H 2011 on track
• Solid customer intake despite high seasonal churn
• Tele2 launched 21 Mbps in its 3G networknetwork
2010-10-2014
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Highlights Tele2 Kazakhstang g
• During the quarter, Tele2 added 114,000 newDuring the quarter, Tele2 added 114,000 new customers in Kazakhstan, a sequential improvement of the total customer stock by 52 percent.
• Focus on widening the distribution network throughout the country
• Interconnect lowered as of 2011 with good• Interconnect lowered as of 2011 with good support from NRA
2010-10-2015
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Agendag
About Q3 2010
Financial review
G id d C l di kGuidance and Concluding remarks
2010-10-2016
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Q4 2010 group resultsg
SEK million Q4 10 Q4 09 Change %Net Sales 10,109 9,953 2%EBITDA 2,488 2,263 10%
EBITDA margin (%) 25% 23%- EBITDA margin (%) 25% 23%Depreciation and joint venture -975 -888- Depreciation of Net sales (%) 10% 9%O ff itOne-off items -157 -64
EBIT 1,356 1,311Normalized EBIT 1,513 1,375- Normalized EBIT margin (%) 15% 14%Financial items -155 -124Taxes -102 -267102 267Net result, continuing operations 1,099 920Net result, discontinued operations 404 184
Net result 1 503 1 104
2010-10-2017
Net result 1,503 1,104
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TaxesTaxes in income statement Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010
Normal -277 -441 -348 -339One-Off 175 1049 -73 -Total -102 608 -421 -339
Taxes in cash flow Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010
Normal 160 152 195 233
• Administrative Court of Appeal approved Tele2’s claim for a deduction of capital loss of SEK 13 3 billion which was associated with the liquidation
Normal -160 -152 -195 -233
capital loss of SEK 13.3 billion, which was associated with the liquidation of SEC SA in 2001
2010-10-2018
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Currency movements (vs SEK)y ( )
YoY Difference in Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010YTD Ave FX Rates, 2010 vs 2009EUR -10% -10% -10% -9%RUB 1 5% 0 5% +/ 0 2%RUB -1.5% 0,5% +/- 0 -2%
End of Quarter Spot rate Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010pvs 31/12-2009EUR -13% -12% -8% -6%RUB 6% 7 5% 3% 1%RUB -6% -7,5% 3% 1%
• EUR/RUB pegged currencies approximately:62% f l d– 62% of sales and
– 67% of EBITDA
2010-10-2019
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Cash flow for Q4 2010
SEK million Q4 10 Q4 09OPERATING ACTIVITIESCash flow from operations, less paid taxesTaxes paid
2,311-160
2,560-205
Changes in working capital -374 346CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 1,777 2,701
INVESTING ACTIVITIESCAPEX -1,163 -1,048Cash Flow after CAPEX 614 1,653Acquisition and sale of shares and participations, net -323
291344
1,997
2010-10-2020
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Group financial profile
Net debt Net debt incl. JV
1,4012
SEK
Net debt/ EBITDA 2010 Net debt incl. JV/ EBITDA 2010
0 801,001,20
8
10BS
0,400,600,80
4
6
0,000,20
0
2
7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0
Q4
07
Q1
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
2010-10-2021
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Net debt and dividend targets
• Shareholder remuneration
g
– “Tele2 will seek to pay a progressive ordinary dividend of 50 percent or more of net income excluding one-off items. Extraordinary dividends and the authority to purchase Tele2’s ownExtraordinary dividends and the authority to purchase Tele2 s own shares will be sought when the anticipated total return to shareholders is deemed to be greater than the achievable returns from the deployment of the capital within the group's operating p y p g p p gsegments or the acquisition of assets within Tele2’s economic requirements.”
• Balance sheetBalance sheet– “Tele2 has a target net debt to EBITDA ratio of between 1.25 and
1.75 times over the medium term. The company’s longer term financial leverage should be in line with the industry and thefinancial leverage should be in line with the industry and the markets in which it operates and reflect the status of its operations, future strategic opportunities and contingent liabilities.”
2010-10-2022
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ROCE
2010-10-2023
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Agendag
About Q4 2010
Financial review
G id d C l di kGuidance and Concluding remarks
2010-10-2024
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Tele2 general group targetsg g g
B t D l iti• Best Deal position
• Targeting a long-termg g gmobile EBITDA margin on owninfrastructure of at least 35 percent
• All operations should have the ambition of reaching ROCE of at least 20 percent
• The capability to reach a top 2 position, in terms of customer market share, in an individual country , yor region
2010-10-2025
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Group outlook (changed)
The following assumptions should be taken into account when estimating
( g )
g p g2011 results for the Group:
T l 2 f t t t t i th f 26 27 t•Tele2 forecasts a corporate tax rate in the range of 26-27 percent excluding one-off items. The tax payment will affect cash flow by approximately SEK 1,000 million.
•Tele2 forecasts a CAPEX level that will not exceed SEK 5,500 million, excluding license paymentsexcluding license payments.
2010-10-2026
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Sweden outlook (changed)
The following assumptions should be taken into account when estimating
( g )
g p gresults for the Swedish mobile operations in 2011:
T l 2 t bil t ith hi h i l di it•Tele2 expects mobile revenue to grow with high single digits.
•Tele2 expects a similar EBITDA contribution in 2011 as in 2010 due toTele2 expects a similar EBITDA contribution in 2011 as in 2010 due to instalments and start up costs related to joint venture Net4Mobility.
2010-10-2027
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Norway outlook (new)
The following assumptions should be taken into account when estimating
y ( )
g p gresults for the Norwegian mobile operations in 2011:
T l 2 t EBITDA t ib ti f SEK 100 illi d t l•Tele2 expects an EBITDA contribution of SEK -100 million due to lower interconnect tariffs and start up costs related to joint venture Mobile Norway
2010-10-2028
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Russia outlook (changed)
Tele2 has GSM licenses in 37 regions in Russia covering
( g )
g gapproximately 61 million inhabitants. The following assumptions should be taken into account when estimating the operational performance of the total operations in Russia in 2011:performance of the total operations in Russia in 2011:
•Subscriber base should reach 20-21 (earlier 19-20) million by YE 2011.•ARPU should remain stable in local currency.•Tele2 Russia’s total EBITDA margin should evolve in the range of•Tele2 Russia s total EBITDA margin should evolve in the range of 36-39 (earlier 34-37) percent.•Capex in Russia should be approximately SEK 2,000 million by YE 2011.
2010-10-2029
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Kazakhstan outlook (changed)
The following assumptions should be taken into account when
( g )
The following assumptions should be taken into account when estimating the operational performance of the total operations in Kazakhstan in 2011:
•EBITDA contribution in 2011 should be approximately SEK -500 million.
•Capex in Kazakhstan should be in the range of SEK 1,200-1,400 million by YE 2011.
2010-10-2030
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Croatia outlook (unchanged)
T l 2 C ti ill h f h fl b k b 2H 2011
( g )
• Tele2 Croatia will reach free cash flow break-even by 2H 2011
2010-10-2031
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Concluding remarksg
Russia 2011: Also an investment year• Strong customer intake and
EBITDA contribution in market area Russia
• Russia
• Kazakhstanarea Russia Nordic• Solid mobile revenue growth in
k t N di
Kazakhstan
• Swedenmarket area Nordic
Western Europe• Further strengthening its position
- 4G
• Norwayg g pin the consumer and business segment
Central Europe and Eurasia
• Norway- 3G
Central Europe and Eurasia• Improved net intake in
Kazakhstan, driving better c stomer trends
2010-10-2032
customer trends
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Q&AQ&A
2010-10-2033
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Appendix AAppendix A
2010-10-2034
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Group mobile EBITDA
2010-10-2035
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MoU and ARPU development
24060
Russia
260220
Sweden
220
240
50
60
SEK220
240
260
180
200
220
SEK
180
200
30
40
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10180
200
160
180
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
ARPU MoUARPU MoU
• ARPU development– Swedish seeing normal seasonality, supported by data trendsg y, pp y– Russia affected by currency movement and increased price competition
2010-10-2036
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Tele2 Sweden mobile
2010-10-2037
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Tele2 Sweden mobile (contd)( )
2010-10-2038
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Tele2 Norway mobiley
2010-10-2039
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Tele2 Norway mobile (contd)y ( )
2010-10-2040
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Tele2 Russia mobile
2010-10-2041
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Tele2 Russia mobile (contd)( )
2010-10-2042
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Tele2 Baltic mobile
2010-10-2043
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Tele2 Baltic mobile (contd)( )
2010-10-2044
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Tele2 Croatia mobile
2010-10-2045
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Tele2 Croatia mobile (contd)( )
2010-10-2046
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Appendix BAppendix B
2010-10-2047
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Financial items Q4 2010
SEK million Q4 10 Q4 09 ChangeExternalNet interest expenses -190 -9 -181E h t diff t l 71 61 132Exchange rate differences, external 71 -61 +132Other financial items -48
-167-24-94
-24-73
Exchange rate differences, intragroup 12 -30 +42
Financial items -155 -124 -31
2010-10-2048
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Cash flow development
C h fl f ti ti iti C h fl ft CAPEX
2.800
Cash flow from operating activities Cash flow after CAPEX
2.000
2.400
on)
1 200
1.600
(SEK
milli
o
800
1.200
400Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
2010-10-2049
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Group net intake per segmentg
2010-10-2050
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Group customer stock
• Strong intake in the mobile segment– Driven by Russia adding 755,000 new customers in Q4 2010
2010-10-2051
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Group EBITDA
2010-10-2052
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Group fixed broadband EBITDA
2010-10-2053
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Group fixed telephony EBITDAy
2010-10-2054
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Group EBIT
2010-10-2055
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Group CAPEX
2010-10-2056
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2010-10-2057