February&2011& GOVERNANCE)OFTHE)LOOMING) CABLE)MONOPOLY) · GOVERNANCE)OFTHE)LOOMING)...
Transcript of February&2011& GOVERNANCE)OFTHE)LOOMING) CABLE)MONOPOLY) · GOVERNANCE)OFTHE)LOOMING)...
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GOVERNANCE OF THE LOOMING CABLE MONOPOLY
Susan Crawford
Silicon Fla1rons
February 2011
• What next? – enormous up-‐front costs
– crushing economies of scale and scope
– steeply declining cost curves in the last mile
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High-‐speed data reality
Wireless will not be a subs1tute for wired access – Shannon’s Law – low efficiency plus exponen1al growth in high data-‐rate demand
– advantage of fiber or fiber/coax will con1nue to grow
– (and wireless itself has natural monopoly characteris1cs)
Legacy DSL is becoming irrelevant; low-‐priced DSL won’t save the business
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Cable Has Won
• Only fiber can compete with DOCSIS 3.0 cable • Cable’s share of net high-‐speed Internet access addi1ons has exceeded its share of total subscribers for several quarters
• For 60% of the country, cable faces no compe11on
• Emergence of high data-‐rate applica1ons reinforces this trend
• A single, high-‐capacity, IP-‐based pipe 5
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Now What?
• Many careers built on arguing compe11on meant no need for regula1on (BPL, satellite, wireless, always right around the corner)
• Cable’s overwhelming compe11ve advantage becoming plainer
• “Good enough” wireless has implica1ons for social equity, na1onal compe11veness – only really “good enough” where no fiber/coax alt
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And Here They Are
• Recapitulate TA96 with func1onal separa1on: introduce local network compe11on by requiring unbundled local loop (compe1tor adds electronics), but do a becer job with stranded costs
• Recapitulate ICANN: the BITAG
• Recapitulate MSN: ex post an1trust oversight
• Recapitulate AT&T divesBture: structural separa1on of natural monopoly segments of business, followed by price and entry regula1on encouraging expansion
• Recapitulate water: public ownership
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Imagine a railway sta1on
• Trains are both an economic ac1vity and an essen1al public good – compe11on won’t work for trains, will work for newsstands
– compe11on in trains leads to higher costs for state, sharp rise in fares, good profits for train companies
• When villages are avoided, the state has to step in • some will claim the subsidy is inefficient – why not just
drive? 8
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“A railway station and its service are both a symptom and a symbol of society as a shared aspiration”
-Tony Judt