February 15, 2010 Antalya, Turkey
description
Transcript of February 15, 2010 Antalya, Turkey
ECO National Focal Points Meeting
Effect of Global crisis on ECO region and Short-Medium-Long Term implicationsFebruary 15, 2010
Antalya, Turkey
Outline
• Short Term Implications GDP growth BOP dynamics Unemployment• Medium Term Implications• Long Term Implications
Short Term Implications
• Contracting region and slowing economies• Reduced export revenues• Reduced import expenses• Elevated unemployment rates
ECO Annual GDP growth rate, %
Economy - Level & Growth RatesSize of the Economy (%)
GDP Growth Rates (2009) ECO Vs Developed Economies
ECO Vs Developing Regions
Baltic Dry Index
ECO Exports and Ratio to GDP
ECO Imports and Ratio to GDP
Trade and Current Account Balance
Reserves in months of imports
ECO Unemployment rate, %
Medium Term Implications
• Sub-trend growth rates• Recovery in export revenues and import
expenses• Export revenues to remain below pre-crisis
levels• Unemployment rates to recover slowly and
remain above pre-crisis levels
Unemployment rate, %
Long Term Implications
• Lagging Human capital formation- no major attempt to increase level of education and training of workers which results in lower productivity compared to other regions
• Low global competitiveness – no ECO country is in the top 50 countries for global competitiveness.
• Non-diversified exports which mostly consist of commodities (oil, minerals) and low technology products (textile, leather products). [Turkey is the only exception]
• Infrastructure challenges —7 out of 10 countries are landlocked countries, poor roads and port facilities.
• Limited economic integration within the region (only 7% of trade conducted within the region comparable figure for EU is around 70%). .
THANK YOUwww.etdb.org