FEATURED SESSION: The Economist Who Loved Me...2016 Projected Global Output Growth: 3.1% Source:...
36
The opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the speaker. The International Foundation disclaims responsibility for views expressed and statements made by the program speakers. FEATURED SESSION: The Economist Who Loved Me Anirban Basu Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Sage Policy Group, Inc. Baltimore, Maryland I01-1
Transcript of FEATURED SESSION: The Economist Who Loved Me...2016 Projected Global Output Growth: 3.1% Source:...
The opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the speaker. The International Foundationdisclaims responsibility for views expressed and statements made by the program speakers.
FEATURED SESSION:The Economist Who Loved Me
Anirban BasuChairman & Chief Executive OfficerSage Policy Group, Inc.Baltimore, Maryland
I01-1
The World is Not (Growing) Enough
*1999: Pierce Brosnan; Sophie Marceau
I01-2
-3.3%2.5%
-0.4%3.4%
7.4%6.6%
6.4%-1.2%
3.5%1.6%
4.1%2.2%2.5%
1.4%1.7%
0.3%2.6%
0.9%1.6%1.5%1.6%1.8%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
BrazilMexico
Latin America & the CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
IndiaChina
Emerging & developing AsiaRussia
Emerging & developing EuropeSub-Saharan Africa
Emerging market & developing economiesUnited States
AustraliaCanada
United KingdomJapanSpain
ItalyGermany
FranceEuro area
Advanced economies
Annual % Change
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2016 Projected
2016 Projected Global Output Growth: 3.1%
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2016; World Economic Outlook Update, July 2016.
I01-3
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$/B
arre
l
August 2016:$44.79 /Barrel
NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. DollarsAugust 2001 through August 2016
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
I01-4
Source: The World Bank; International Energy Agency
‐4.0
‐3.0
‐2.0
‐1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.020
07Q
120
07Q
220
07Q
320
07Q
420
08Q
120
08Q
220
08Q
320
08Q
420
09Q
120
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220
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09Q
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10Q
120
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220
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11Q
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12Q
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320
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14Q
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320
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16Q
120
16Q
2
mb/
d, g
row
th y
ear
over
yea
r
Other Non-OECD
OECD
China
World Oil Demand Growth2007Q1 through 2016Q2
I01-5
Source: The World BankUS$ Nominal. Base metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.
Moneypenny—Metal Price IndicesAugust 2007 through August 2016
Base Metals
Iron Ore
Precious Metals
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
Aug-
07
Dec
-07
Apr-
08
Aug-
08
Dec
-08
Apr-
09
Aug-
09
Dec
-09
Apr-
10
Aug-
10
Dec
-10
Apr-
11
Aug-
11
Dec
-11
Apr-
12
Aug-
12
Dec
-12
Apr-
13
Aug-
13
Dec
-13
Apr-
14
Aug-
14
Dec
-14
Apr-
15
Aug-
15
Dec
-15
Apr-
16
Aug-
16
2010
=10
0
I01-6
Source: Quandl.com
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Sep-
09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep-
10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep-
11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep-
12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep-
13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep-
14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Jan-
16
May
-16
Sep-
16
Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000
September 19th
836
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.
Baltic Dry IndexSeptember 2009 through September 2016
I01-7
Skyfall—BRAZIL• Consumer price index increased 10.7 percent in
2015, despite ongoing economic contraction;• Highest inflation rate in more than a decade;• Increases in key categories:
– Food (12.3%)
– Transportation prices (10.2%)
– Housing related costs (18.3%)
• Brazil’s real down 33 percent compared to the U.S. dollar by end of 2015.
• Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings downgraded sovereign debt to junk status
• Boletin Focus, a weekly survey of 100 private financial analysts, predicts Brazil’s economy will contract by another 3 percent this year.
Source: Currency Exchange, Wall Street Journal
*2012: Daniel Craig, Berenice Marlohe
I01-8
A View to a Kill—RUSSIA• Collapse in oil prices and economic
sanctions (and counter sanctions) related to Ukraine have hurt Russian economic growth;
• Economy contracted about 4 percent in 2015;
• World Bank: Russia will remain in recession in 2016;
• Russia’s ruble down 20 percent compared to U.S. dollar by end of 2015;
• Continued decline in investment expected;
• Budget expenditures will drop 3 to 5 percent in 2016.
Source: Currency Exchange, CNBC
*1985: Roger Moore, Tanya Roberts
I01-9
I Expect You to Grow—CHINA
• Stock values fell 12 percent during first week of 2016 trading;
• Government attempts to stabilize economy only made investors even more wary;
– Circuit breaker system shuts down trading when losses hit a certain level;
– Too restrictive and causes panic selling once breakers are turned off.
Source: Currency Exchange, CNN Money
*(1964) Goldfinger, misquote from Auric Goldfinger, Sean Connery, Honor Blackman
• Growth at slowest pace in 2 decades;
• World Bank predicts 6.7% economic growth for 2016 (down from 7.0% in June);
• George Soros: China has “a major adjustment problem” on its hands;
I01-10
Quantum of Solace
*2008: Daniel Craig; Olga Kurylenko
I01-11
Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2016Q2*
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%19
90Q
119
90Q
419
91Q
319
92Q
219
93Q
119
93Q
419
94Q
319
95Q
219
96Q
119
96Q
419
97Q
319
98Q
219
99Q
119
99Q
420
00Q
320
01Q
220
02Q
120
02Q
420
03Q
320
04Q
220
05Q
120
05Q
420
06Q
320
07Q
220
08Q
120
08Q
420
09Q
320
10Q
220
11Q
120
11Q
420
12Q
320
13Q
220
14Q
120
14Q
420
15Q
320
16Q
2
Per
cent
Cha
nge
from
Pre
cedi
ng P
erio
d (S
AA
R)
2016Q2: +1.1%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *2nd Estimate
I01-12
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2015Q3 – 2016Q2*
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
PersonalConsumption
GovernmentSpending
Net Exports GrossInvestment
1.8
0.3
‐0.5
0.4
1.5
0.2
‐0.5 ‐0.4
1.1
0.30.0
‐0.6
2.94
‐0.27
0.10
‐1.67
SAAR (%
)
2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q22.0
0.90.8
1.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
GDP
Per
cent
Cha
nge
from
Pre
cedi
ng P
erio
d (S
AA
R)
2016Q2: +1.1%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *2nd Estimate
I01-13
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSAugust 2002 through August 2016
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Aug-
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r-03
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5Ap
r-06
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r-07
Aug-
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08D
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Aug-
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9Ap
r-10
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0Ap
r-11
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16
Thou
sand
s
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
August 2016: +151K
I01-14
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research Education Trust, Employer Health Benefits Survey; White House Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) calculations.
7.9%
9.5%
7.3%
5.0%4.4%
5.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Total premium Worker's contribution Employer'scontribution
2000-20102010-2015
Growth in Premiums for Employer-Based Family Coverage, Annual Nominal Percent Growth
I01-15
Health Care Expenditure Annual Growth Rates1970 through 2016
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0% 13.4%
11.1%
6.7%
8.5%9.6%
8.5%
7.3%6.8% 6.5% 6.5%
4.6%3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%
2.9%
5.3% 5.5%4.8%
Annual % Change
Source: Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services *Annual average growth over the decade. P: Projected
I01-16
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jan-
58
Feb-
61
Mar
-64
Apr-
67
May
-70
Jun-
73
Jul-7
6
Aug-
79
Sep-
82
Oct
-85
Nov
-88
Dec
-91
Jan-
95
Feb-
98
Mar
-01
Apr-
04
May
-07
Jun-
10
Jul-1
3
Aug-
16
YOY Inflation Rate Medical care All items less food and energy
Health Care vs. General Price Inflation 1958-2016
Medical care
All items less food and energy
I01-17
National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector
August 2015 v. August 2016
-124
-37
29
76
164
167
199
395
418
542
618
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Mining and Logging
Manufacturing
Information
Other Services
Government
Financial Activities
Construction
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,447K jobs gained
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
I01-18
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) August 2015 v. August 2016 Percent Change
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 IDAHO 3.3 18 MASSACHUSETTS 1.9 35 ALABAMA 1.01 OREGON 3.3 18 VIRGINIA 1.9 35 INDIANA 1.03 FLORIDA 3.2 20 MARYLAND 1.8 35 KENTUCKY 1.04 UTAH 3.1 20 MICHIGAN 1.8 35 MISSOURI 1.05 NEVADA 2.9 20 NORTH CAROLINA 1.8 35 PENNSYLVANIA 1.06 COLORADO 2.8 23 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.7 40 MAINE 0.86 DELAWARE 2.8 23 HAWAII 1.7 40 NEBRASKA 0.86 WASHINGTON 2.8 25 TEXAS 1.6 42 ILLINOIS 0.79 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.5 26 ARKANSAS 1.4 43 ALASKA 0.3
10 GEORGIA 2.4 26 MINNESOTA 1.4 44 NEW MEXICO 0.210 SOUTH DAKOTA 2.4 26 OHIO 1.4 44 WEST VIRGINIA 0.212 CALIFORNIA 2.3 26 WISCONSIN 1.4 46 MONTANA -0.413 TENNESSEE 2.2 30 NEW JERSEY 1.3 46 OKLAHOMA -0.414 VERMONT 2.1 31 RHODE ISLAND 1.2 48 KANSAS -0.615 ARIZONA 2.0 32 CONNECTICUT 1.1 49 LOUISIANA -0.915 IOWA 2.0 32 MISSISSIPPI 1.1 50 NORTH DAKOTA -1.715 NEW HAMPSHIRE 2.0 32 NEW YORK 1.1 51 WYOMING -3.3
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.7%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
I01-19
Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watchas of July 2016
I01-20
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)July 2016
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.5 10
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.1
2Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 3.7 12
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.2
3Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.0 13
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3
4Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.2 13
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3
5San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.3 15
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4
6Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.8 16
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5
6Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.8 17
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8
8Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.0 17
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8
8 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area (1) 5.0 19Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.1
10Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.1 20
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.9
1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
I01-21
License to Sell
*License to Kill, 1989: Timothy Dalton; Carey Lowell
I01-22
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates September 1995 through September 2016*
2.77%
3.50%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Sep-
95M
ar-9
6Se
p-96
Mar
-97
Sep-
97M
ar-9
8Se
p-98
Mar
-99
Sep-
99M
ar-0
0Se
p-00
Mar
-01
Sep-
01M
ar-0
2Se
p-02
Mar
-03
Sep-
03M
ar-0
4Se
p-04
Mar
-05
Sep-
05M
ar-0
6Se
p-06
Mar
-07
Sep-
07M
ar-0
8Se
p-08
Mar
-09
Sep-
09M
ar-1
0Se
p-10
Mar
-11
Sep-
11M
ar-1
2Se
p-12
Mar
-13
Sep-
13M
ar-1
4Se
p-14
Mar
-15
Sep-
15M
ar-1
6Se
p-16
Rate
15-yr 30-yr
Source: Freddie Mac *Week ending 9/15/2016
15-yr
30-yr
I01-23
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
1980
Q2
1981
Q2
1982
Q2
1983
Q2
1984
Q2
1985
Q2
1986
Q2
1987
Q2
1988
Q2
1989
Q2
1990
Q2
1991
Q2
1992
Q2
1993
Q2
1994
Q2
1995
Q2
1996
Q2
1997
Q2
1998
Q2
1999
Q2
2000
Q2
2001
Q2
2002
Q2
2003
Q2
2004
Q2
2005
Q2
2006
Q2
2007
Q2
2008
Q2
2009
Q2
2010
Q2
2011
Q2
2012
Q2
2013
Q2
2014
Q2
2015
Q2
2016
Q2
2016Q2:63.1%
U.S. Homeownership
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
I01-24
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Jul-9
3
Jul-9
4
Jul-9
5
Jul-9
6
Jul-9
7
Jul-9
8
Jul-9
9
Jul-0
0
Jul-0
1
Jul-0
2
Jul-0
3
Jul-0
4
Jul-0
5
Jul-0
6
Jul-0
7
Jul-0
8
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9
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
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2
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3
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4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
$ B
illio
ns (
SAA
R)
U.S. Private New Multifamily ConstructionJuly 1993 through July 2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
I01-25
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros June 2016, 12-Month Percentage Change
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2.0% 2.0%
3.3%
4.7%5.1% 5.1% 5.3%
5.7% 5.8%6.4%
6.9%
9.0% 9.2%
12-M
onth
% C
hang
e
Source: Standard & Poor’s
I01-26
Source: The American Institute of Architects
Architecture Billings IndexJanuary 2008 through July 2016
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
Jan-
08M
ar-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
l-08
Sep-
08N
ov-0
8Ja
n-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
l-10
Sep-
10N
ov-1
0Ja
n-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1Se
p-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12M
ar-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
l-12
Sep-
12N
ov-1
2Ja
n-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3Se
p-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
l-14
Sep-
14N
ov-1
4Ja
n-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5Se
p-15
Nov
-15
Jan-
16M
ar-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
l-16
July 2016: 51.5
I01-27
Source: The American Institute of Architects
National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector
July 2015 v. July 2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
‐13.1%‐11.2%‐9.7%‐9.0%
‐6.7%‐5.4%‐4.9%‐3.4%‐1.7%‐0.8%
0.7%2.0%
4.9%12.0%
25.0%25.2%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Sewage and waste disposalConservation and development
Water supplyCommunication
Public safetyManufacturing
EducationalTransportation
Highway and streetHealth care
PowerReligious
Amusement and recreationCommercial
LodgingOffice
12-month % Change
Total Nonresidential Construction YOY: +$9.66B; +1.4%
I01-28
Offshore Investment Sales Volumes Reach New Heights in 2015
$9.2
$19.1$22.3
$33.4
$40.7
$8.3$3.5
$13.0$17.7
$23.8$29.2 $28.3
$71.7
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bill
ions
of
$US
Foreign Investment Increases 153.4 Percent in 2015 to $71.7b
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics
Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million
I01-29
Top Markets for Foreign Office Investment, 2015
$172 $249 $347 $394 $515 $602 $709 $995 $1,184
$1,935 $2,323
$11,237
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000
HoustonSilicon Valley
Dallas/Fort WorthSan Francisco
Los AngelesAtlantaMiami
ChicagoSeattle Bellevue
BostonWashington, DC
New York
Millions of $US
Annual Foreign Office Investment Volume
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics
I01-30
Tomorrow Never Dies
*1997: Pierce Brosnan; Michelle Yeoh; Teri Hatcher
I01-31
Sales Growth by Type of Business August 2015 v. August 2016*
‐9.5%
‐3.1%
‐0.7%
‐0.4%
‐0.3%
1.1%
1.4%
1.6%
1.7%
2.2%
5.8%
7.8%
10.9%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Gasoline Stations
Electronics & Appliance Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Furniture & Home Furn. Stores
Food & Beverage Stores
Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers
Food Services & Drinking Places
Health & Personal Care Stores
Internet, etc. Retailers
12-month % change*August 2016 advanced estimate
Total Retail Sales: +1.9% YOY
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
I01-32
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through August 2016
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%Au
g-07
Nov
-07
Feb-
08M
ay-0
8Au
g-08
Nov
-08
Feb-
09M
ay-0
9Au
g-09
Nov
-09
Feb-
10M
ay-1
0Au
g-10
Nov
-10
Feb-
11M
ay-1
1Au
g-11
Nov
-11
Feb-
12M
ay-1
2Au
g-12
Nov
-12
Feb-
13M
ay-1
3Au
g-13
Nov
-13
Feb-
14M
ay-1
4Au
g-14
Nov
-14
Feb-
15M
ay-1
5Au
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August 2016: 124.1 where 2010: 100
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62nd Annual Employee Benefits ConferenceNovember 13-16, 2016Orlando, Florida
Session #I01
FEATURED SESSION:The Economist Who Loved Me
• Not a Happy New Year for global economy so far. Everyone knows about China, Brexit and N. Korea, but we have problems right here;
• Corporate profit margins are slipping and inflationary pressures are building—Does not sound like a great recipe for stock prices or for corporate investment;
• Only the consumer is really contributing significantly to growth, with state and local government spending occasionally playing a supporting role;
• Job growth should remain decent in the near‐term—We ended 2015 with a near‐record in total job openings and the number of job openings remains high, including in construction;
• But a lot of foreign money is flowing into America, and ultimately, that may prove to be the current recovery’s undoing;
• In fact, we may be transitioning very quickly from the mid‐cycle stage of the recovery to the late‐stage: 2017‐18 outlook very murky.
Dr. Know
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2017 Educational ProgramsInvestments
63rd Annual Employee Benefits Conference October 22-25, 2017 Las Vegas, Nevadawww.ifebp.org/usannual
Investments InstituteMarch 13-15, 2017 Phoenix, Arizonawww.ifebp.org/investments
Portfolio Concepts and ManagementMay 1-4, 2017 Philadelphia, Pennsylvaniawww.ifebp.org/wharton
Related ReadingVisit one of the on-site Bookstore locations or see www.ifebp.org/bookstore for more books.
The Tools & Techniques of Investment Planning, 3rd EditionItem #9029www.ifebp.org/books.asp?9029
816
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