Feasibility Study Project for the JCM (2015FY)

(Introduction of energy-efficient facilities for the seawater

desalination project in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia)

March 2016

Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc.

CONTENTS

Purpose of the Feasibility Study (F/S) .................................................................................................. 3

1. JCM-related policies and measures .................................................................................................. 4

1.1 Reference to be compared with the project ................................................................................. 4

1.2 Cost and energy ........................................................................................................................... 7

1.3 Eligibility Criteria ..................................................................................................................... 12

2. Project plan ..................................................................................................................................... 15

2.1 Concept of spec-in .................................................................................................................... 15

2.2 Project plan ............................................................................................................................... 17

2.3 Modification of the existing plant ............................................................................................. 24

3. Methodology and potential of GHG reduction ............................................................................... 28

3.1 Reference scenario .................................................................................................................... 28

3.2 Rough calculation of emissions and emission reductions ......................................................... 29

3.3 Modification of the existing plant ............................................................................................. 35

3.4 Potential of emission reductions ............................................................................................... 36

5. Subjects to be solved....................................................................................................................... 38

5.1 Portion of the JCM demonstration project ................................................................................ 38

5.2 Schedule .................................................................................................................................... 39

6. Discussions with stakeholders ........................................................................................................ 40

6.1 Counterpart of the project (SWCC) .......................................................................................... 40

6.2 The Government (DNA) ........................................................................................................... 43

3

Purpose of the Feasibility Study (F/S)

This F/S project aims to investigate the feasibility of the following project:

Project Type Desalination of the seawater

Project Location Al-Jubail, Eastern Province, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Project Name Al-Jubail Phase 3 (hereafter, Jubail 3)

Applied Technology Tri-Hybrid Technology

Counterpart SWCC (Saline Water Conversion Corporation)

Figure 1 Project Location

4

1. JCM-related policies and measures

1.1 Reference to be compared with the project

(1) Conventional technologies applied to the operating plants

Desalination technologies applied in the operating plants owned by SWCC are as in the following

figure.

5

Figure 2 Applied technology for each desalination plant1

1 Data provided by SWCC

1980 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

East Coast Jubail 12RO

Khobar 23

Ras Alkhair

KhafjiWest Coast Jeddah 4

RO1RO2RO3

Shuaiba 12

Yanbu 12ROExpansion

ShuqaiqSatelite Haql RO

Duba ROAlWajih 3Umlujj ROUmlujj 3Rabigh 2AlaziziaFarasan 2Al-QunfuthaAl-Lith

MSF MED RO

RO:MSF = 3:7

6

(2) Assumption of the reference scenario

For the new project Jubail 3, it is most probable that the applied technologies would be both

thermal (MSF or MED) (70%) and RO membrane (30%). As for thermal desalination technology,

MED is likely to be applied. However, there is no definite outlook or plan on that ratio in the future.

Hence, the reference scenario is to be assumed as follows.

Jubail 3 MED : RO = 7 : 3

After Jubail 3 MED : RO = to be investigated before the validation process

For the operating desalination plants of SWCC, mainly Japanese and Korean companies have

track records to introduce the facilities as shown in the table below.

Table 1 Manufacturers of the facilities of SWCC's operating desalination plants2

Technology Plant Company

Thermal MSF Jubail 1 Sasakura

Jubail 2 Sasakura, Hitachi Zosen, IHI

Khobar 2 Sidem (France), Hyundai (Korea)

Khobar 3 Hitachi Zosen

Ras Al Khair Doosan (Korea)

Khafji Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding

Jeddah 4 Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding

Shuaiba 1 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

Shuaiba 2 Doosan (Korea)

Shuqaiq Hyundai (formerly KHIC) (Korea)

MED Alwajih Arabian Company & Sasakura for Water & Power

Umluji Arabian Company & Sasakura for Water & Power

Rabigh Arabian Company & Sasakura for Water & Power

Alazizia Sasakura

Farasan Arabian Company & Sasakura for Water & Power

AL-Qunfutha Arabian Company & Sasakura for Water & Power

AL-Lith Arabian Company & Sasakura for Water & Power

2 SWCC

7

Technology Plant Company

RO Jubail RO Preussag (Germany)

Duba RO Al Kawther-Al Mawarid JV (KSA)

Jeddah RO 1 & 2 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

Jeddah RO 3 Doosan (Korea)

Tri-Hybrid technology which is to be applied to this project has been developed by Sasakura,

Water Reuse Promotion Center (Japan) and SWCC, and among them only Sasakura can implement

design and construction in the projects. Therefore, in case that Request for Proposal (RfP) for the

Jubail 3 includes the requirement of applying Tri-Hybrid technology, Sasakura will participate in the

project as EPC contractor or sub-contractor.

1.2 Cost and energy

(1) Cost

Regarding the Tri-Hybrid technology, initial investment cost (CAPEX) is only a little expensive

than the competing technologies (the combination of MED and RO), and operational cost (OPEX) is

extremely cheaper than MED. As a result, life-cycle cost is to be almost the same with RO alone.

Table 2 Cost of the competing technologies3

3 Sasakura

- Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4

Desalination Plant Conventional RO Conventional MEDPR=10

New MEDPR=14

Tri-Hybrid(NF/RO+High Temp. MED)

PR=20

Capacity 100,000 m3/d 100,000 m3/d 100,000 m3/d 40,000+60,000 m3/d

CAPEX (US$/t-product) 0.1666 0.1816 0.1889 0.1838

OPEX (US$/t-product) 0.4732 0.6599 0.5413 0.4562

Life Cycle Cost(US$/t-product)

0.6398(100%)

0.8415(131%)

0.7302(114%)

0.6400(100%)

8

< Conditions of calculation >

Operation Year : 30 Years

Availability : 355 days/Year

Discount Rate : 4% / Year

Inflation Rate : 2.4% / Year

Electricity Cost: SAR 320/MW (Saudi New Price) =USD 85.33 / MWh

Heating Steam Cost: SAR 18.67 /t-Steam =USD 4.979 / t-Steam

Figure 3 Comparison of CAPEX4

4 Sasakura

9

Figure 4 Comparison of OPEX5

Figure 5 Comparison of life-cycle cost6

5 Sasakura 6 Sasakura

10

(2) Energy consumption

By applying the Tri-Hybrid technology, steam consumption can be reduced drastically than MED.

Table 3 Energy consumption of the competing technologies7

MED

(PR-10)

MED

(PR-14)

RO Tri-Hybrid

Steam consumption

(t-steam/m3-product)

0.10 0.074 0 0.031

Electricity consumption

(kWh/m3-product)

2.2 2.1 4.0 2.8

In this project, the estimate of the reduction of steam consumption is important comparing with

the competing technologies.

The actual value of steam consumption in the operating plants of SWCC is equal or more than

0.10 t-steam/ m3-product as shown in the following figure.

Figure 6 Actual steam consumption of the operating plants of SWCC (2015)8

7 Sasakura 8 Analyzed by using the data provided by SWCC

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Stea

m C

onsu

mpt

ion

(t-st

eam

/m3-

wat

er p

rodu

ctio

n)

Year of Commission

MSF

MED

11

PR (Performance Ratio), the index to represent the energy efficiency of desalination plant, is

defined as follows, which is a reciprocal of steam consumption per water production

(t-steam/m3-water production) shown in the figure above.

It should be noted that 2,326 kJ is approximately latent heat of 1 ton-steam. PR is defined not by

the amount of steam but heat, because the latter fluctuates by steam conditions.

Performance Ratio = Water Production / Heat Input (m3-water production/2,326kJ heat input)

As in the following figure, PRs of the operating plants of SWCC are up to 10, while the

Tri-Hybrid technology has the PR of 20.

Figure 7 PR of the operating plant of SWCC (design value and actual value)9

9 Analyzed by using the data provided by SWCC and the annual report of SWCC

12

1.3 Eligibility Criteria

Basic concept of Eligibility criteria in JCM methodology is as follows.

Figure 8 Basic concept of Eligibility criteria in JCM methodology10

Along with that basic concept, the Eligibility criteria to be applied for this project should be as

follows.

Table 4 Eligibility criteria of this project

Criteria Requirements for this project

The requirements for the project to be

registered as a JCM project

Application of the Tri-Hybrid technology <Positive

List Approach>; or

PR (Performance Ratio) is equal or more than 20

<Benchmark Approach>

The requirements for the project to be

able to apply the JCM methodology

Newly-built desalination plant; and

Located in the Arabian Gulf

10 Government of Japan “Recent Development of The Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM)” (February 2016)

13

(1) The requirements for the project to be registered as a JCM project

Application of the Tri-Hybrid technology <Positive List Approach>

The patent on the Tri-Hybrid technology is owned by the project participants; therefore the

manufacturer that can apply it is limited to one company (Sasakura), if the patent is provided with

the royalty.

That requirement would be hard to be regarded as Eligibility criteria11.

PR (Performance Ratio) is equal or more than 20 <Benchmark Approach>

PR (Performance Ratio), one of the representative indices to evaluate the energy efficiency of

desalination plants, is up to 10 in case of applying the other competing technologies.

In the future, MED may achieve PR of 14, and it is undeniable that some companies would

develop desalination technologies that have good PRs12.

Now we regard the Benchmark Approach of PR equal or more than 20 as appropriate.

(2) The requirements for the project to be able to apply the JCM methodology

Newly-built desalination plant

Only the project of newly-built plant is applicable as JCM project.

Located in the Arabian Gulf

For the upcoming plants along the Red Sea, the desalination technology would be almost limited

to RO. On the other hand, in the Arabian Gulf, most plants have applied MSF because of bad

seawater quality, except for one plant using RO (Al-Jubail RO), which has been operating with some

technological problems.

The current policy of SWCC as for the newly-built desalination plant in the Arabian Gulf is to

apply combination of the technology, Thermal by 70% and RO by 30% (also for the latest project

Ras Al-Khair). That policy is not defined technologically, but decided as recommendation taking

technological restrictions and track records into consideration13.

Therefore, at the present stage, it is not appropriate to define some thresholds of seawater quality

indices with which it is judged whether RO can be applied or not, although there is the following

11 METI 12 Sasakura 13 SWCC (2015/12/10)

14

study14.

Table 5 Comparison of seawater quality in Saudi Arabia15

指標 Red Sea Arabian Gulf

Phytoplankton 104 cell/m3 104 − 108 cell/m3

Chlorophyll 0.18 – 0.86 μg/l 0.82 – 1.17 μg/l

Total Suspended Solids (TSS) 1.56 ± 0.38 – 2.69 ± 0.44 mg/l > 20 mg/l

Now we regard it as appropriate to limit the project location in the Arabian Gulf.

14 SWCC (2016/2/28) 15 Mohamed O. Saeed, Salah I. Al-Khamis, Essam S. Al-Thobaiti, Ghazi Ozair, Kither Mohammad (Saline Water Desalination Research Institute, SWCC), Saeed Al-Harthi and Abdullah Bamhair (SWCC Jeddah Desalination and Power Plants) “Study on the Silt Density Index Problem in the SWCC Jeddah Seawater Reverse Osmosis Plants”, Technical Report No. Report No. TR. 3805/APP 96007 in May 2005

15

2. Project plan

2.1 Concept of spec-in

(1) Spec-in of the competitive bidding

Government tender and procurement procedures in KSA are established as the “Government

Tender and Procurement Law” issued on 2006, and its rules of implementation issued by Minister of

Finance in 2007. All Saudi governmental entities have obligations to implement tenders (open-bid)

for companies that are appropriately licensed by the Government. Furthermore, the tender process

would be invalid if the number of bidding is less than three.

SWCC also has to be in compliance with those laws and regulations.

Request for Proposal (RfP)

We assume that the Request for Proposal (RfP) for the Jubail 3 prescribes application of each

technology as follows.

Table 6 Assumption of RfP16

Technology Capacity [m3/d] Ratio

RO 500,000 29.4%

Thermal (MSF or MED) 1,100,000 64.7%

Tri-Hybrid 100,000 5.9%

Total 1,700,000 -

History of the Tri-Hybrid technology towards the commercial plant

In response to SWCC’s request for research cooperation, the technical demonstration project

“Hybrid desalination research association for oil producing countries (The Kingdom of Saudi

Arabia)” was conducted by utilizing the budget of METI (2006-2009).

Furthermore, after finishing that project, the technical demonstration test has continued as the

voluntary project with the participation of SWCC R&D Center (Al-Jubail), Sasakura and Water

Reuse Promotion Center (-October 2012).

16 Sasakura

16

Table 7 Hybrid desalination research association for oil producing countries (The

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia)17

Role Entity

Installation and operation SWCC R&D Center (Al-Jubail)

Project management Water Reuse Promotion Center

Production of facility and technical evaluation Sasakura

The main objective of that project is technical demonstration, and for that, very small-scale

pilot plant (24 t/d) was manufactured, installed and tested, which has been already stopped

operation.

SWCC has set high valuation on the Tri-Hybrid technology as follows:

Pilot project has finished successfully. After that, SWCC has searched for the opportunity

to apply the technology to commercial plant, however, because of low oil & gas prices,

there has not been incentives for reducing energy consumption18.

Major policy is to introduce Tri-Hybrid technology in some of the coming new plant.19

Patent of the Tri-Hybrid technology is as follows20:

The patent is owned by three entities (SWCC: Sasakura: Water Reuse Promotion Center =

50: 25: 25).

Both Sasakura and Water Reuse Promotion Center have the right to reject against

providing that patent.

In case of providing that patent, the successful bidder to use the technology has to pay

royalty to those three entities.

Tender process requires at least three bidders, then in case EPC contractor is not Sasakura, it

may be probable that SWCC provides the patent of Tri-Hybrid technology to that contractor.

To date, we assume following business model:

Tender and contract for the Jubail 3 are lump-sum or divided into some portions.

At least three consortiums including Sasakura make a bid for the project portion that is

required to apply the Tri-Hybrid technology.

If successful bidder (EPC contractor) is not Sasakura, it will participate in the project as

subcontractor.

17 Water Reuse Promotion Center 18 SWCC R&D Center (Al-Jubail) (2015/12/10) 19 SWCC Dr. Abdulrahman M. Al-Ibrahim (Governor) (2015/12/9) 20 Sasakura

17

(2) Spec-in as the JCM project

See “1.3 Eligibility Criteria”.

2.2 Project plan

The followings are the general description of the project regarding the portion of the Tri-Hybrid

application.

(1) General

The Contract for the Desalination plant will be a Turnkey Lump Sum Contract.

This specification describes the technical details concerned with design, fabrication, erection,

inspection and test for one (1) unit of NF/RO/MED-TVC Tri-hybrid type desalination plant having

the rated water production 100,000 m3/day.

1) Employer: Saline Water Conversion Corporation

2) Project Title: Tri-Hybrid Desalination Plant at Al Jubail 3

3) Plant location: Al Jubail (Arabian Gulf coast), KSA

4) Delivery: Full turn key

5) Codes and Standards: The equipment and material will be designed, manufactured and tested in

accordance with the "Codes & Standards" detailed in Section 2 of this specification.

6) Inspection and Test: All equipment and materials will be inspected and tested in accordance with

the requirements specified in the applicable standards. Detail of the inspection items shall be

submitted later for approval.

7) Changes in Specification: This specification has been prepared for the proposal purpose and

minor changes in the specification shall be permitted during the detail design stage.

8) Exception to the Purchaser's Specification: Not applicable.

(2) System description

Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC) - the Employer - plans to construct new plant at Al

Jubail 3, on the East coast (Arabian Gulf coast) of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

1,700,000 m3/d Al Jubail 3 Desalination Plant consists of 500,000 m3/d RO plant, 1,100,000 m3/d

Thermal (MSF or MED) plant and 100,000 m3/d Tri-Hybrid (40,000 m3/d NF/RO plant and 60,000

18

m3/d High Temp. MED plant) plant.

Figure 9 Tri-Hybrid System21

The MED-TVC process has recently been used intensively on a large commercial scale because of

an advantage of less power consumption over the MSF, but there is a limitation of increase in

Performance Ratio (m3-production/2326kJ net heat input) because the TBT of the MED cannot be as

high as that of the MSF due to calcium sulfate and other scale deposition. In order to mitigate scaling

difficulties and vapor flow rate limits and to limit the maximum TBT to 67oC, currently available

commercial MED/TVC units consist of only three to eight effects. The low value for the available

overall temperature difference puts a limitation to the possible number of effects. Increasing the TBT

above 67oC provides the opportunity to increase the overall temperature difference and consequently

provides the opportunity to increase the number of effects and this in turn will be reflected in the

significant increase of Performance Ratio (PR) and reduces the steam consumption.

Application of nano-filtration technique combined with decarbonation for the pre-treatment of

seawater results the reduction of salt concentration and removal of the certain ions such as SO42-,

Ca2+, Mg2+ and HCO3- which are responsible for the formation of the alkaline and non-alkaline scale

on the heat transfer surfaces of thermal desalination processes. Pre-treatment of raw seawater by

nano-filtration opens the possibility to increase the top brine temperature (TBT) safely exceeding the

present limit of TBT at MED desalination plants. Increase of TBT shall result in the increase of

21 Sasakura

19

water production and PR.

The long term pilot plant experimental testing results have been verified and confirmed that it is

quite safe to operate commercial MED-TVC distiller within the context of NF/SWRO/MED

configuration at a TBT of 125oC with more than 20 effects and PR could be increased up to 20. The

MED-TVC distiller operating within the context of the tri-hybrid configuration can thus produce

twice the water production of a conventional MED-TVC distiller of 10 PR with the same thermal

energy consumption. The tri-hybrid system results in significantly low thermal energy consumption

and would present a historical breakthrough in the desalination industry. The reduction of product

water cost resulting from the tri-hybrid desalination configuration is attributed to

Higher PR of MED plant can be obtained with less consumption of steam and seawater

exceeding the present TBT limit compared to the standalone MED plants.

Higher total distillate recovery ratio

Stable production of NF/RO plant throughout the year with stable feed seawater temperature

control to NF/RO plant by the usage of hot discharged cooling seawater of MED plant

(3) Process description

Tri-Hybrid System, which consists of nano-filtration (NF) for scale component removal from

seawater, reverse osmosis (RO) for removal of salt at lower energy consumption and Multi Effect

Desalination (MED) in higher temperature operation with higher PR as no calcium scale will occur,

is planned to apply for the above new project.

Tri-hybrid desal inat ion system is illustrated in a simplified form in the figure below.

20

Figure 10 Flow of the Tri-Hybrid system22

22 Sasakura

21

Raw sea water is chlorinated at sea water intake facility then delivered to two separate

streams, one for RO treatment stream and the other is MED treatment stream. RO treatment

stream consists of pre-treatment, NF membrane unit and RO membrane unit in series to

produce RO product water of 40,000 m3/d and MED unit consists of MED/TVC to produce

MED distillate water of 60,000 m3/d and 100,000 m3/d in total capacity.

Pre-treatment removes suspended solid in sea water to have Silt Density Index of 4.0 to

supply treated water to NF membrane. NF membrane removes mainly SO42-, Ca, Mg and

some of Na and Cl etc. After NF treatment, more than 90 % of sulphate ion is removed and

TDS is also reduced to about 35,000 ppm as well as very low SDI i.e. less than 1.0, so that

SWRO can be operated under very stable condition at higher water recovery i.e. 50% than

usual 40% at high TDS concentration in middle east region.

Figure 11 Treatment in the NF Unit23

Even SWRO concentrates NF feed at high rate and reaching high TDS of about 65,000 ppm,

SWRO reject brine can be used as makeup feed for MED as no scale is formed in MED

process even at high temperature since the RO reject brine is still less than saturation point of

calcium sulphate.

The mixed feed water, brine from SWRO, a part of NF product and raw sea water are used

for MED makeup. Mixing ratio of above three streams is controlled based on saturation

23 Sasakura

22

index of calcium sulphate at each operating condition, which is calculated by on-line

monitoring apparatus.

In order to avoid soft scale such as calcium carbonate and magnesium hydroxide at higher

temperature, the bicarbonate is removed at the decarbonator by the acid dose and followed by

deaerator to reduce contents in the feed water. The treated feed water is then supplied to

MED first effect via pre-heaters to increase its temperature to match the first effect, which

temperature is operated at maximum TBT of 125 degC.

As hard scale components are removed at the feed water, MED can be operated at PR 20

without scale formation even at top temperature of 125 degC TBT. MED brine is

concentrated up to nearly 100,000 ppm at the brine discharge, which means 2 times of MED

feed TDS.

Figure 12 Water quality changes through treatment24

Product water of 40,000 m3/d from SWRO and distillate of 60,000 m3/d from MED/TVC is

mixed, and then post-treated by lime stone filters, CO2 injection and chlorine treatment for

drinking purpose before delivering product storage tank.

24 Sasakura

23

(4) Project schedule

At the present stage, we assume the following schedule tentatively:

Tender - End of 2016

Preparation (e.g. contract) - End of 2017

Start of construction Beginning of 2018

Completion of construction (desalination) End of 2019

Completion of construction (power and steam) Mid 2020

MRV Mid – end of 2020

Transfer of ownership End of 2020

Figure 13 Tentative schedule

(5) Elements of demonstration

The Tri-Hybrid technology has been demonstrated in terms of technology itself by using

small-scale pilot plant, and the next step is to apply that technology to the large-scale commercial

plant. In this project, 24 effects are to be operated continuously and altogether, which is different

from the pilot plant. Elements to be demonstrated in the coming JCM demonstration project will be

followings, if adopted by the Japanese Government:

Long-term operation of the NF membrane performance to remove scale content;

Long-term operation of the high temp. MED without precipitating and adhering of soft and hard

scale components on the heating surface; and

Energy-efficiency by the operation of large-scale commercial plant.

2018 2019 2020

Competitive Bidding

Preparation / Conclusion of the

Contract

Construction of Desalination Plant

Construction of CHP Plant

MRV

2016 2017

24

2.3 Modification of the existing plant

It takes certain time before starting this project (Tri-Hybrid), while there may be opportunity to

implement rehabilitation and modification of the operating plant before that, because energy

efficiency has decreased in each old operating plant.

Figure 14 Tentative schedule of this project (Tri-Hybrid) and modification project

(1) Outline of the technology

There are 40 operating MSF lines in the existing plant Jubail 2. We assume to conduct

rehabilitation and modification for 1 line, as the first JCM project in SWCC.

Table 8 Project elements

Rehabilitation Scale content includes insoluble minerals within seawater, which decreases

thermal efficiency of the plant by precipitating and adhering on the heating

surface and avoiding heat transfer. Therefore, as the rehabilitation, original

thermal efficiency is regained by removing scale precipitation using acids.

It should be noted that it may be necessary to make replacement of some

facilities additionally when the condition of operating plant is not good.

SWCC has been developing the project to remove scales to improve energy

efficiency as the CDM project (by making use of FS12 technology owned by

Therma Chem, UK). CDM methodology NM0363 has already been approved

by the CDM Executive Board, and has been registered as ACM0054 “Energy

efficiency improvement through on-line fire side cleaning technology applied

to fossil fuel fired steam boilers in existing energy and other industries”

(October 2013). CDM project by utilizing that approved methodology has not

been validated nor registered yet.

Procedures for the project

Demonstration Project

2016

Tri-Hybrid

2017 2018 2019 2020 2015

F/S

Modification Demonstration Project Proce

dures

25

Figure 15 Before and after rehabilitation25

Modification In case of MSF, by increasing the number of stages, the effective temperature

gap is to be increased, which improves energy efficiency.

Performance Ratio (PR) is the index that roughly represents saline water

production per heating steam, and the more stages increases, the more PR also

increases.

The patent of the modification technology is taken by Westinghouse Electric

(US) about 30 years ago, and its life has already been terminated. However, the

technology has not applied to any commercial plant all over the world. Patent

application of the construction method of its rehabilitation has been already

submitted by Sasakura.

Figure 16 Impact of number of MSF stages on Performance Ratio26

25 Draft PDD for the CDM project “Energy efficiency improvement at Saline Water Conversion Corporation by means of FS12 Utilization”, attached for the CDM methodology ACM0054 “Energy efficiency improvement through on-line fire side cleaning technology applied to fossil fuel fired steam boilers in existing energy and other industries”. 26 Sasakura

26

(2) Reduction of the energy consumption

As in the figure shown below, actual PR (Performance Ratio) of the Jubail 2 has been decreased to

6.91 in 2015 from the design value 9.39.

Figure 17 PR of the MSF plants owned by SWCC (design and actual values)27

By conducting rehabilitation followed by modification to increase the number of stages from 17 to

33, thermal recovery rate of the circulating brine is to be gained, and as a result, steam consumption

in the brine heater will be decreased.

Table 9 Assumption of PR28

PR (Performance Ratio) Reduction of energy consumption

Current level Approx. 7 ―

After rehabilitation Approx. 9 Approx. 20%

After modification Approx. 11 Approx. 20%

27 Analysis by using plant data provided by SWCC and SWCC Annual Report 28 Sasakura

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Actu

al P

erfo

rman

ce R

atio

(201

5)

Design Performance Ratio

MSF

Jubail 2

27

(3) Schedule

Business model of the project is assumed as follows.

Finance: Variation order (VO) of the operating plant Jubail 2, without tendering

process.

Construction period: About 4 months (which depends on the condition of operating plant.)

Initial investment: About 400 million JPY (which depends on the condition of operating

plant.)

Figure 18 Tentative schedule of the modification project

(4) Elements of demonstration

The modification technology has not applied in any commercial plant. Elements to be

demonstrated in the coming JCM demonstration project will be followings, if adopted by the

Japanese Government:

By increasing the number of stages of existing MSF plant in the KSA, energy efficiency is to be

improved by 20%.

2016 2017 2018

Proposal to METI/NEDO

Adoption

Contract(It must be after the adoption)

4 monthsConstruction

MRV (demonstration) 1 year

Payment by NEDO Pay-back to NEDO by 77.5%

Ownership is transferred from NEDO to SWCC

Approval of JCM methodology and registration of project by the Joint Committee

28

3. Methodology and potential of GHG reduction

3.1 Reference scenario

Reference scenario is to be defined as follows.

The same amount of saline water is produced with the project scenario (Tri-Hybrid) by the

combination of RO and MED by a fixed ratio.

The ratio of RO and MED is decided along with the latest policy of SWCC (the most

plausible assumption).

Steam is provided from the adjacent CHP facility, which is built for that desalination plant.

Figure 19 Reference scenario

For this project, that ratio is to be set up as follows.

RO : MED = 500,000 : 1,100,000 = 3.125 : 6.875

RO

(a)

MED

(b)

RO(a’) MED

(b’)

Tri-Hy

brid

Reference Scenario

Project Scenario

Tri-Hy

brid

MED

(b’’)

RO

(a’’)

Project w/Tri-Hybrid

(Total)

Project wo/Tri-Hybrid

(Total)

a:b = a’:b’ = a’’:b’’

29

Table 10 Assumption of RfP 29

Technology Capacity (m3/d) Ratio

RO 500,000 29.4%

Thermal (MSF or MED) 1,100,000 64.7%

Tri-Hybrid 100,000 5.9%

Total 1,700,000 -

3.2 Rough calculation of emissions and emission reductions

Calculation formulas are as follows.

(1) Reference emissions

REy = � RBEi,y + REEyi

Where:

REy : Reference emissions during the year y (t-CO2/y)

i : Number of steam boilers within the project boundary

RBEi,y : Reference emissions from steam boiler “i” (on the consumption in the project boundary)

during the year y (t-CO2/y)

REEy: Reference emissions from electricity (on the consumption in the project boundary) during

the year y (t-CO2/y)

RBEi,y = Fk,i × NCVk,i × CEFk,i

Where:

RBEi,y : Reference emissions from steam boiler “i” (on the consumption in the project boundary)

during the year y (t-CO2/y)

Fk,i: Allocated annual consumption of fossil fuel “k” in steam boiler “i" (on the steam

consumption in the project boundary) (mass or volume units)

NCVk,i: Net calorific value of fossil fuel “k” used to generate steam in steam boiler “i" (TJ/mass or

volume units)

CEFk,i: Carbon emission factor of fossil fuel “k” used in the steam boiler “i" (t-CO2/TJ)

REEi,y = Fk,i × NCVk,i × CEFk,i

29 Sasakura

30

Where:

REEi,y : Reference emissions from power generator (on the consumption in the project boundary)

during the year y (t-CO2/y)

Fk: Allocated annual consumption of fossil fuel “k” in power generator (on the electricity

consumption in the project boundary) (mass or volume units)

NCVk: Net calorific value of fossil fuel “k” used to generate electricity in power generator

(TJ/mass or volume units)

CEFk: Carbon emission factor of fossil fuel “k” used in the power generator (t-CO2/TJ)

(2) Project emissions

PEy = � PBEi,y + PEEyi

Where:

PEy : Project emissions during the year y (t-CO2/y)

i : Number of steam boilers within the project boundary

PBEi,y : Project emissions from steam boiler “i” (on the consumption in the project boundary)

during the year y (t-CO2/y)

PEEy: Project emissions from electricity (on the consumption in the project boundary) during the

year y (t-CO2/y)

PBEi,y = Fk,i × NCVk,i × CEFk,i

Where:

PBEi,y : Reference emissions from steam boiler “i” (on the consumption in the project boundary)

during the year y (t-CO2/y)

Fk,i: Allocated annual consumption of fossil fuel “k” in steam boiler “i" (on the steam

consumption in the project boundary) (mass or volume units)

NCVk,i: Net calorific value of fossil fuel “k” used to generate steam in steam boiler “i" (TJ/mass or

volume units)

CEFk,i: Carbon emission factor of fossil fuel “k” used in the steam boiler “i" (t-CO2/TJ)

PEEi,y = Fk,i × NCVk,i × CEFk,i

Where:

PEEi,y : Project emissions from power generator (on the consumption in the project boundary)

during the year y (t-CO2/y)

31

Fk: Allocated annual consumption of fossil fuel “k” in power generator (on the electricity

consumption in the project boundary) (mass or volume units)

NCVk: Net calorific value of fossil fuel “k” used to generate electricity in power generator

(TJ/mass or volume units)

CEFk: Carbon emission factor of fossil fuel “k” used in the power generator (t-CO2/TJ)

(3) Emission reductions

ERy =PWy

RWy× REy − PEy

Where:

ERy: Emission reductions during the year y (t-CO2/y)

REy : Reference emissions during the year y (t-CO2/y)

PEy : Project emissions during the year y (t-CO2/y)

RWy : Reference water production amount during the year y (amount/y)

PWy : Project water production amount during the year y (amount/y)

(4) Rough calculation of emission reductions

Rough calculation is based on the following conditions.

Table 11 Conditions for the rough calculation (1)30

Scenario Steam consumption

(t/h)

Electricity consumption

(kWh/t-water)

Ratio

Reference

RO

0 4.0 0.3125

MED

(PR-10) 425.7 2.2 0.6875

Weighted average

(Reference Scenario)

292.7

(2,494 kt/y) 2.8 1.0000

Project

130.0

(1,108 kt/y) 2.8 -

(Note) Availability : 355 d/y 30 Sasakura

32

Table 12 Conditions for the rough calculation (2)

Value Source

Energy input for generating steam (TJ/t) 0.0030 SWCC

(figure shown below)

CO2 Emission Factor of the fossil fuel

used for generating steam (t-CO2/TJ) 74.1

IPCC (2006)

Gas/Diesel Oil

Energy input of fossil fuel for generating steam is analyzed by using actual data of the operating

plant of SWCC in 2015. Regarding MED plants, the most efficient value is 0.0030 [TJ/t-steam].

Figure 20 Energy input for generating steam31

Reference emissions, project emissions and emission reductions are roughly calculated as follows.

(It should be noted that electricity consumptions under both scenarios are regarded as the same.)

31 Analysis by using plant data provided by SWCC

33

REy = � RBEi,y = Fk,i × NCVk,i × CEFk,ii

= 2,494[kt− steam/y] × 0.0030[TJ/t− steam] × 74.1[t− CO2/TJ]

= 554[kt − CO2/y]

PEy = � PBEi,yi

= Fk,i × NCVk,i × CEFk,i

= 1,108[kt− steam/y] × 0.0030[TJ/t− steam] × 74.1[t− CO2/TJ]

= 246[kt − CO2/y]

ERy =PWy

RWy× REy − PEy

= 554− 246

= 308[kt − CO2/y]

(5) Conservative setting of parameters

Here emission reductions are calculated by setting two parameters in a conservative manner.

The default PR value of MED under the reference scenario is 10, which is the best level among

the operating plants.

Figure 21 PR of the operating plant owned by SWCC (design and actual values)32

32 Analysis by using plant data provided by SWCC and SWCC Annual Report

34

The default value of energy input for generating steam is set to be 0.0030 [TJ/t-steam], which is

the most effective level among the operating MED plants owned by SWCC.

Figure 22 Energy input for generating steam33

33 Analysis by using plant data provided by SWCC

35

3.3 Modification of the existing plant

Conditions for the rough calculation are as in the following table.

Table 13 Conditions of modification

Assumption Note

Target plant MSF

Jubail 2 (capacity 947,890 m3/d)

1 line out of 40 lines (28,000 m3/d)

Reference scenario Design level

PR (Performance Ratio) = 9.39

After rehabilitation (to be

conservative)

Project scenario Steam consumption is to be reduced by 20%

Steam Supplied from CHP facility

Electricity The same between two scenarios

Supplied from the grid

Rough calculation of reference emissions, project emissions and emission reductions are as

follows.

Steam consumption (reference scenario)

= 28,000 [m3-water production/d]×355 [d/y]÷9.39 [m3-water production/t-steam]

= 1,060,000 [t-steam/y]

REy = � RBEi,y = Fk,i × NCVk,i × CEFk,ii

= 1,060[kt− steam/y] × 0.0030[TJ/t− steam] × 74.1[t− CO2/TJ]

= 236[kt − CO2/y] PEy = REy × (1 − 20%)

= 189[kt − CO2/y]

ERy =PWy

RWy× REy − PEy

= 236− 189

= 47[kt− CO2/y]

36

3.4 Potential of emission reductions

Table 14 Potential of emission resuctions (kt-CO2/y)

JCM project Potential

Tri-Hybrid 308 1,232

Modification 47 5,420

(1) Introduction of the Tri-Hybrid technology in the newly-built desalination plants

SWCC has the plans of constructing new plants as in the following table. Among them, Jubail 4,

Khobar 4 and Khobar 5 are planned to be built in the Arabian Gulf.

Table 15 Plants in the planning stage34

Plant Name Installed Capacity

(m3/d)

Expected Year Region Applicability

Shoaiba 4 650,000 2019 West

Jubail 4 320,000 2017 East Yes

Yanbu 4 300,000 2021 West

Khobar 4 250,000 2017 East Yes

Khobar 5 220,000 2024 East Yes

Shoqaiq 3 175,000 2016 West

Yanbu 5 100,000 2023 West

By assuming that: (1) Tri-Hybrid technology is applied for the water production capacity 100,000

[m3/d] in each plant and Jubail 3; and (2) reference scenario is the same for each plant, the emission

reduction potential is estimated roughly as follows.

Emission reduction potential = 308 [kt-CO2/y] * 4 plants (incl. this project)

= 1,232 [kt-CO2/y]

34 SWCC

37

(2) Modification of the operating desalination plants

Modification is targeted onto the operating MSF plants.

Table 16 Operating MSF plant owned by SWCC35

Plant Name Year of

Commission

Installed Capacity

(m3/d)

PR (design

value)

PR (actual

value) (2015)

Applicability

Jubail 1 1982 137,729 9.39 3.74 Yes

Jubail 2 1983 947,890 9.39 6.91 Yes

Khobar 2 1983 223,000 6.50 5.30 Yes

Khobar 3 2000 280,000 6.80 5.24 Yes

Ras Al Khair 2014 307,500

Khafji 1986 22,886 9.09 Yes

Jeddah 4 1982 221,575 7.06 9.84 Yes

Shuaiba 1 1989 223,000 8.00 9.17 Yes

Shuaiba 2 2001 454,545 9.00 8.77 Yes

Yanbu 1 1981 108,074 10.00 9.12 Yes

Yanbu 2 1998 144,000 8.60 7.96 Yes

Shuqaiq 1989 97,014 8.00 7.81 Yes

Now it is assumed that all MSF plants can be modified except for Ras Al Khair, which has started

operation in 2014. For the conservativeness, the following assumptions are considered.

PR (Performance Ratio) is to be regained to the design value by rehabilitation36.

PR level after rehabilitation is regarded as reference scenario, from which steam consumption

will be reduced by 20% by implementing modification.

The rough estimate of the GHG reduction potential by implementing modification onto all MSF

plants is as follows:

Emission reduction potential = 5,420 [kt-CO2/y]

35 SWCC 36 Only on Khafji, PR design value is regarded as the same with the actual value of 2015.

38

5. Subjects to be solved

5.1 Portion of the JCM demonstration project

The portion should be discussed for which the financial support by Japanese Government is

applied.

Table 17 Portion of the JCM demonstration project

Portion to apply

financial support

Significance as JCM Cost

10,000 m3/d out of

100,000 m3/d

- Approx. 2 billion

JPY

Design and

technical assistance

Without those, technology transfer cannot be made. Approx. 500-600

million JPY

NF unit Without pretreatment by NF unit, both RO and MED cannot work well. The

effectiveness of filtration of NF membrane has already proven, but it has not

applied for controlling scale contents, which is to be demonstrated (removals of

scale components, continuous stable operation and life time of NF membrane).

Figure 23 NF unit in the Tri-Hybrid system37

37 Sasakura

39

5.2 Schedule

Regarding schedule, the followings are to be clarified.

Tender

Preparation period (after the tender)

Construction period (tentatively, 2 years for desalination plant and more than 2 years for power

and steam generation plant.)

Figure 24 Tentative schedule of JCM project (1)

Furthermore, before the Tri-Hybrid project (Jubail 3), there is possibility to implement modification

(Jubail 2) as the first JCM project.

Figure 25 Tentative schedule of JCM project (2)

Procedures for the project

Demonstration Project

2016

Tri-Hybrid

2017 2018 2019 2020 2015

F/S

Modification Demonstration Project Proce

dures

1st year 2nd year 3rd year JCM Demonstration Project

Competitive Bidding

Preparation / Conclusion of the

Contract

Construction of Desalination Plant

Construction of CHP Plant

MRV

40

6. Discussions with stakeholders

6.1 Counterpart of the project (SWCC)

Table 18 Meetings with SWCC

Date Main theme Attendants 2015/12/7 JCM <JCM>

Dr. Abdulmajeed S. Al-Twaim (G.M., Production Affairs) Dr. Mohamed Osman Saeed (SWDRI: Saline Water

Desalination Research Institute / Research Scientist and Head Environment & Biology Department) and one more staff

2015/12/9 Policy of SWCC and JCM

<Management> Dr. Abdulrahman M. Al-Ibrahim (Governor) Eng. Al-Breakeit (Vice Governor) Eng. Mansour A. Al-Zunaidi (G.M., Privatization &

Commercial Affairs) Eng. Saleh A. AlSudais (G.M., Studies & Design) Dr. Abdulmajeed S. Al-Twaim (G.M., Production Affairs) Dr. Ahmed S. Al-Arifi (Manager, International Cooperation

Department) Eng. Sharekh Ibrahim Al Sharekh (Director General Project

Execution Department) Eng. Hassan A. Fakih (Projects Specialist)

2015/12/10 Technology <Plant and R&D> Dr. Mohamed Osman Saeed (SWDRI: Saline Water

Desalination Research Institute / Research Scientist and Head Environment & Biology Department)

Dr. Osman Ahmed Hamad (DTRI: Desalination Technologies Research Institute / Researcher & Head Thermal Dept.)

Eng. Ahmed M. Al-Zahrani (Jubail Plant Manager) Staff in charge of MSF Staff in charge of RO

and one more staff 2016/2/28 JCM and

technology <JCM> Dr. Abdulmajeed S. Al-Twaim (G.M., Production Affairs) Dr. Mohamed Osman Saeed (SWDRI: Saline Water

Desalination Research Institute / Research Scientist and Head Environment & Biology Department) and one more staff

41

Table 19 Comments by SWCC

Date Main theme Comments

2015/12/7 JCM SWCC assists for implementation of the F/S.

The meeting with participation of management staffs including

the governor will be set up.

Hopefully the tender for Jubail 3 is to be held until the end of

2016, although not yet decided.

2015/12/9 Policy of SWCC and JCM

JCM is highly acclaimed for applying for the coming projects.

Tri-Hybrid technology is to be introduced.

Emission reductions by applying other technologies except for

the Tri-Hybrid may be investigated.

It is important to make a contribution for the compliance of

INDC submitted by the KSA government. For that, guideline or

rule about JCM credit should be clarified.

SWCC assists for implementation of the F/S (e.g. by providing

plant data).

2015/12/10 Technology Reference scenario in the Arabian Gulf region should be the

combination of thermal (70%) and RO (30%), which is based

on SWCC’s policy considering technological reliability. It may

be altered in the future, so that ratio should be decided flexibly.

Pilot plant of the Tri-Hybrid has finished successfully. After

that, although application to the commercial plant has been

42

Date Main theme Comments

sought, there has not been enough incentive for promoting

energy efficiency because of low oil & gas prices.

Steam will be supplied from CHP. It takes up to 3 years for

construction.

The tender for Jubail 3 will be the end of 2016 or after that.

2016/2/28 JCM and

technology

Very good F/S. The result is to be reported to the governor and

vice governors.

Business model and tendering schedule are not decided yet, and

also the portion of the Tri-Hybrid is not decided yet.

Modification of the Jubail 2 may be implemented earlier than

Jubail 3.

JCM methodology is valid.

The promising JCM projects are both Tri-Hybrid in the Jubail 3

and modification in the Jubail 2.

43

6.2 The Government (DNA)

Table 20 Meeting with DNA

Date Main theme Attendants

2015/12/8 JCM <DNA (Focal Point)>

Eng. Mohammed A. Al-Saeed (Technical Consultant)

Mr. Abdulmarik M. Al-Obra (Projects Engineer)

2016/2/29 JCM <DNA (Focal Point)>

Eng. Mohammed A. Al-Saeed (Technical Consultant)

Table 21 Comments by DNA

Date Main theme Comments

2015/12/8 JCM It is necessary to reduce GHG emissions for the compliance of

INDC (totally 130 million ton-CO2 until 2030).

Promoting energy efficiency in the desalination sector is

considered in INDC.

Rule and guideline on JCM credit are necessary.

Other JCM candidates are to be investigated.

2016/2/29 JCM This project is promising for the compliance of INDC. If it

takes certain time until starting construction, it may be good to

implement modification project as the first JCM project.

DNA has understood general concept on the sharing of JCM

credits. Further detailed rule and guideline are required.

It is not investigated how to treat JCM credits taken by the KSA

companies for the compliance of INDC.

As for other JCM candidate projects, it depends on potential

project owners.