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Transcript of FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN...
![Page 1: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11
Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras
UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University of Stavanger (UiS), Pontifica Universidad Católca del Perú and the Norwegian Seafood Export Council (NSEC)
![Page 2: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The fact that the fish price index can be disaggregated along several dimensions makes it is possible to
pursue many relevant research issues
In the following we present some of the opportunities that exist for research using the
FPI
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Research Issues based on FPI
1.Are global seafood markets integrated?
2.Economic Growth and Seafood Prices
3.Feed Cost and Price of Aquaculture Fish
4.Fuel Cost and Price of Capture Fish
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1. Integrated global seafood markets – myth or reality?
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The global whitefish market appears to be integrated,
although imperfectly
For example, Alaska Pollock prices seem to diverge from other white fish species, at least
during periods
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Whitefish prices
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Price:whitefish, whole frozen
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Price:whitefish, whole frozen
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Price:whitefish, fillet frozen
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Price:whitefish, fillet frozen
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Fall in Alaska Pollock prices?
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PriceEU
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• Whitefish, fillet frozen
• Origin North America
• Markets EU, Japan and USA
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PriceEU
USA
• Whitefish, fillet frozen
• Origin North America
• Markets EU, Japan and USA
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Price:whitefish, fillet frozen
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Price:whitefish, surimi
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USD
per
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South America
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Pelagic fish prices are characterized by high volatility.
Some of these markets appears to follow common trends, but can periodically experience strong
deviations
![Page 16: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Pelagic fish (excl. Tuna) prices
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Pelagic fish (excl. Tuna) prices, smoothed
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Small pelagic prices, origin Europe and North America 0
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Small pelagic prices, origin Europe and North America
There signs of divergenceD
ivergence
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Small pelagic prices, origin Europe and North America
There signs of divergence
Then convergence
Convergence
Divergence
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Small pelagic prices, origin Europe and North America
There signs of divergence
Then convergence
And finally, integration
Convergence
Integration
Divergence
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Europe-EUEurope-JapanNorthAmerica-EUNorthAmerica-JapanNorthAmerica-USA
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NorthAmerica-EU NorthAmerica-Japan NorthAmerica-USA
Prices at a more disaggragate level show that the divergence originated from North American pelagic exports to Japan (light blue line)
European pelagic exports also command a higher price in the Japanese market (dark red line)
![Page 23: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
The global tuna market exhibit pronounced common trends in price movements, but still not
perfectly integrated
![Page 24: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Tuna prices
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Tuna prices, smoothed
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Tuna prices, smoothed
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AFRICA
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NORTH AMERICA
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SOUTH AMERICADifference in steepness of trend can most likely be related to composition of tuna species/product format
![Page 27: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Prices of other fish, which represents a hodgepodge of
different kinds of species, are surprisingly convergent at the
regional aggregate level
Could it be the effect of farmed fish such as catfish, tilapia and pangasius that influence
these comovements?
![Page 28: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Other fish prices
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Other fish prices
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Salmon prices have converged with the growth of aquaculture
and has become a strongly integrated global market
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Salmon prices
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NORTH AMERICA OCEANIA
SOUTH AMERICA
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Shrimp is segmented in two types of markets: 1) aquaculture and
2) capture, where the latter group is more heterogenous
However, wild shrimp prices have not been able to rise like many other fish species, which
is most likely due to the growth of shrimp aquaculture
![Page 33: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Shrimp prices
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Farmed shrimp prices relatively stable and integrated
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Shrimp prices
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OCEANIAWild shrimp prices more volatile due to seasonality and more divergent because of heterogenous species types
![Page 35: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Shrimp prices
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AFRICA
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SOUTH AMERICAHowever, only weak if any increasing trend in wild-shrimp prices
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Shrimp prices, smoothed
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OCEANIA SOUTH AMERICA
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Shrimp prices, smoothed
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Only weakly increasing trends suggest scarcity is not an issue
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Finally we compare price development across species
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200 Fish Species Price Indexes(100=2005)
Data Source: NSEC
Other fish White fish
Salmon Shrimp
Pelagic e/tuna Tuna
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SummaryMost markets for particular fish species groups
appear to be integrated across regions although the level of integration appears to be related to
1.Heterogeneity of species within species group2.Production technology
Integration across species group is less, but there is still signs of similar long-term trends when the long run is defined to be 5-10 years intervalls
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2. Economic growth and seafood prices
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EU, Japan and USA have similar price development for seafood…
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USA
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Japan
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…and China too, but a bit steeper
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USA
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China
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…and Korea too, but even steeper
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USA
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China
Korea
![Page 45: FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081513/56649da25503460f94a8f578/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
…and finally Brazil with steepest price development
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140
160
180
200
USA
EU
Japan
China
Korea
Brazil
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Why is pricing rising faster in emerging economies?The rise of the middle class in Asia seems to
have two effects1.Increase in consumption of seafood2.Changing the composition of seafood
consumption towards more high-value products
This results in a higher inflation for seafood products in emerging markets
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3. Feed Cost and Price of Aquaculture Fish
• Prices of aquaculture feed inputs have spiked during the last years and should affect prices of
farmed fish
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Aquaculture feed prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Maize
Sorghum
Wheat
Fishmeal
Soybean meal
Fish oil
Rape oil
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Prices of feed inputs and aquaculture products
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Maize
Sorghum
Wheat
Fishmeal
Soybean meal
Fish oil
Rape oil
Aquaculture
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ConclusionThe increase in prices of a broad range of
important inputs for aquaculture feed have led to rising prices for aquaculture products
This reflects the importance of feed cost of total operational costs, and that that there are limited oppurtinities to substitute away from rising input prices
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4. Fuel Cost and Price of Capture Fish
One of the main cost components in capture fisheries is fuel prices. The impact fuel prices have
on fish prices is not alltogether obvious
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Capture fish and gasoline prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Other fish White fish
Pelagic e/tuna Tuna
Crude Oil
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Conclusions
The seafood market is highly global, and is becoming increasingly so due to trade growthMarket integration within species groups and
across exporting regions appears to be highWe have to be careful about composition
effects when intepreting price trends
Emerging market growth leads to increased seafood imports and changes in the import composition towards higher value products
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ConclusionsPrices are determined globally
For an increasing number of species, production cost in aquaculture determines price
We don’t understand yet the influence of fuel prices on capture fish prices In fisheries where there are overcapacity increasing fuel
prices can reduce the size of the fleet and thereby increase sustainability – but what about prices?
FPI opens up for relevant research questions about price formation in international seafood markets