FAO Committee on Forestry 2009 Special Event Climate Change and Fire 18 March 2009 Vegetation Fires...
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Transcript of FAO Committee on Forestry 2009 Special Event Climate Change and Fire 18 March 2009 Vegetation Fires...
FAO Committee on Forestry 2009Special Event Climate Change and Fire
18 March 2009
Vegetation Fires and Climate Change Interactions
Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC)UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)
Global Wildland Fire Network and Wildland Fire Advisory Group
Canadian Forest Service, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry Reading University, University of Maryland / GOFC-GOLD
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Presented by Johann Georg GoldammerGFMC
Vegetation Fires and Climate Change Interactions
Issues Global Vegetation Fire Occurrence and Assessments
Vegetation fire emission assessments: Magnitude of contribution to anthropogenic climate change
Impact of climate change on fire regimes and future emission scenarios / feedback loops
The context: FRA, UNFCCC-REDD ….
albedo, water & energy fluxes
trace gas & aerosol emissions
deforestation
lightning
rainfall, temperature
grazingwind
plant mortality & reproduction
nutrient supply
Fire Functioning & Feedbacks in the Earth System
FIRE
Land Cover & Vegetation Composition
Land Cover & Vegetation Composition
ClimateClimate
Fuel Quantity
Fuel Moisture
SoilSoil AtmosphericChemistry
AtmosphericChemistry
Land use
Ignitionsource
logging,agriculture
rainfall, temperature, radiation, [CO2]
Source: A. Spessa, Reading University
Seasonal Variability of Global Vegetation Fires (2005)
Global Land Use Fires: Agriculture
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Fir
e C
ou
nts 2001
2002
2003
Source: Korontzi et al., 2007
Vegetation Fire Emissions
• CO2 – Climatically relevant only when there is no
regrowth - e.g., deforestation & degradation, loss of organic layers / peat
• NOx, CO, CH4, other hydrocarbons– Ingredients of smog chemistry, greenhouse gases
• Halogenated hydrocarbons (e.g. CH3Br)– Stratospheric ozone chemistry
• Aerosols– Light scattering and absorbing, cloud
condensation nuclei (CCN)
Experimental Burn Data: Example – Boreal Forest, Canada
Fire Weather Index = 34Carbon Emissions: 19.5 t/ha
Carbon Emissions: 7.5 t/ha
Same forest stand (same fuel conditions), different fire weather (2 days between fires)
Fire Weather Index = 17
Darwin Lk Exp. Burning Project, NWT
5 August 1974 3 August 1974
Source: W.J. de Groot
• Crown fuelsC storage: 5-85 t/haC loss: 0.5-11 t/ha
• Surface fuelsC storage: 2-12 t/haC loss: 0.5-8 t/ha
• Forest floor fuelsC storage: 1.5-42 t/haC loss: 0.5-20 t/ha
Summary of C Loss DataExample – Boreal Forest, Canada
Fast DOMbelow ground(dead roots)
Very fastDOM
above ground(litter)
Stemwood
Bark, branches and
submerchantable trees
Foliage
Fine roots
Coarse roots
Snag stems
Snag branches
Very fast DOM
below ground
Atmosphere
Medium DOM(dead logs)
Slow DOMabove ground
(duff)
Black carbon
(past burn)
Slow DOMbelow ground
Fast DOMabove ground
(dead branches)
Source: W.J. de Groot
Cyclic Nature of Fire and Carbon Sequestration
Jack Pine Stand C Storage - 75yr fire cycle
0
50
100
150
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Time (yrs)
Car
bo
n (
t/h
a)
Source: W.J. de Groot and D.J. McRae
Data from Wood Buffalo National Park, Northern Canada, simulations are from the Boreal Fire Effects Model using fire weather data outputs from
Hadley and Canadian GCMs
Vegetation Biomass Burned Worldwide: 9.2 billion tonnes (metric) annually
Savannas (3160)
Domestic fuel (2660)
Extratropical Forest (640)
Charcoal prod. & use (200)
Tropical Forest (1330)
Agricultural waste (1190)
Source: Andreae and Merlet (2001), Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
Global Fire Emissions
Mean annual fire carbon emissions, averaged over 1997–2006 (g C / m2 / yr)
(Note: 100 g C / m2 = 1 t / ha)
Average carbon emitted (gross) = 2.5 billion tons / year (30% of fossil fuel emissions)
Average CH4 emissions (gross) = 21 million tons / year (~5% of all sources)Source: Van der Werf et al., 2006, ACP
Global Fire Emissions
Global total carbon (C) emissions from deforestation fires (1997-2006) = Net release of carbon to the atmosphere:
On average 0.6 billion t C / year
Source: Van der Werf et al., 2006, ACP
Increasing occurrence and severities of El Niño – a consequence of regional warming?
El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Fire in South Sumatra
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Se
a L
ev
el P
res
su
re In
do
ne
sia
(Sta
nd
ard
ize
d A
no
ma
lie
s)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Nu
mb
er
of
NO
AA
/MO
DIS
-
de
tec
ted
ac
tiv
e f
ire
s in
So
uth
Su
ma
tra
Source: GTZ South Sumatra Fire Management Project (SSFMP)
Impact of climate change on fire regimes and future emission scenarios / feedback loops
Total Forest Carbon Storage
0
150
300
450
1975-1990 2080-2100
Car
bo
n (
Mt) Aspen/white spruce
Aspen
White spruce
Black spruce
Jack pine
Changing Fire Regime
Source: W.J. de Groot
• Boreal forest stores 1/3 of terrestrial ecosystem carbon• Total forest area: 1300 million ha• Average annual area burned: 10-25 million ha (highly variable)
• Fire activity has steadily increased during the last 30-40 years (area burned has doubled in North American boreal)
• This trend is expected to continue into the future
• Current (1975-1995) emissions: 0.648 billion t / yr CO2 equivalent• Estimated 2080-2100 emissions: 1.252 billion t / yr CO2 equivalent
Boreal Wildland FireSummary
Note:
Carbon dioxide equivalent (CDE) is a measure for describing how much global warming a given type and amount of greenhouse gas may cause, using the functionally equivalent amount or concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) as the reference
Boreal Wildland FireSummary
Conclusions Vegetation Fire Emissions:
• Considerable progress achieved at determining emission factors from vegetation fires
• Global and regional emission estimates are still problematic, mostly because of uncertainties regarding amounts of phytomass burned
• Excessive use of fire resulting in deforestation and ecosystem degradation is a significant driver of climate change (as well as a human health risk)
• GOFC/GOLD, ISDR and GFMC are discussing the coordination of a satellite-based global fire assessment and a global fire early warning system
Conclusions Changing Fire Regimes:
• Increasing fire severities and area burned, results in decreased total long-term C storage
• A future shift in species composition (and fuel types) will change general forest flammability; the effect of this is currently unknown
Canada: Average Monthly Severity Rating (MSR)1980-1989 (left) and 2090-2099 (right)
Overall Conclusions Climate Change - Fire Interactions (I):
• Extreme fires and their limited “controllability” in the recent years (Australia, California, Greece, Portugal, Russia … and the less reported in Africa, Asia and Latin America) are primarily an expression of indirect consequences of land-use change and increasing vulnerability of societies
• However, in order to reduce the destructivity of human-driven wildfires enhanced global capacity in assessing, modelling and managing vegetation fires is required
Overall Conclusions Climate Change - Fire Interactions (II):
• Commitments by the majority of governments and international institutions are insufficient to address fire management appropriately
• Governments are urged to provide the United Nations family with financial resources to support partner institutions, network and countries to address the problem
• Fire management to become a major effort under the post-Kyoto regime (REDD) as well as in FLEG, CCD, CBD and disaster risk reduction (UNISDR / Hyogo Framework)
FAO Committee on Forestry 2009Special Event Climate Change and Fire
18 March 2009
Vegetation Fires and Climate Change Interactions
Thanks for your attention