Fallacies of a Hydrogen Economy

2006 Byron Short Lecture2006 Byron Short LectureUniversity of Texas at AustinUniversity of Texas at Austin

Dr. Frank Kreith

““Let us set as our national goal in Let us set as our national goal in the spirit of Apollo, with the the spirit of Apollo, with the determination of the Manhattan determination of the Manhattan Project, that by the end of this Project, that by the end of this decade we will have developed decade we will have developed the potential to meet our own the potential to meet our own energy needs without depending energy needs without depending on any foreign energy source.”on any foreign energy source.”

President Richard Nixon, November 7, 1973President Richard Nixon, November 7, 1973

In response to President Nixon’s vision of U.S. energy independence, the National

Academy recommended in 1978:

• Conservation

• Synthetic fuels from coal

• Effective use of coal and nuclear power to produce electricity

• Use of solar energy for low temperature heat

“All the basic science funding in the world will have no positive effect on

the well being of our nation if the research is not carried out within a system that can effectively digest

and apply the results.”

George E. Brown, Jr., Chair of the House Committee on Science,

Space and Technology

Principal Energy Needs Principal Energy Needs of Society in 21of Society in 21stst

CenturyCentury

HeatHeatFuelFuel

ElectricityElectricity

Energy ProjectionEnergy Projection

1956 Edward Teller “Nuclear will be 1956 Edward Teller “Nuclear will be too cheap to meter.”too cheap to meter.”

1973 President Nixon “By 1980, we 1973 President Nixon “By 1980, we will be self sufficient and not need will be self sufficient and not need foreign energy.”foreign energy.”

1978 President Carter “In 20 years, 1978 President Carter “In 20 years, 20% of our energy will be from solar.”20% of our energy will be from solar.”

1980 President Reagan “Alaska has a 1980 President Reagan “Alaska has a greater oil reserve than Saudi Arabia.”greater oil reserve than Saudi Arabia.”

2003 President Bush “The first car 2003 President Bush “The first car driven by a child born today could be driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen.” powered by hydrogen.”

History of Hydrogen

• 1766 Henry Cavendish isolates hydrogen from the reaction iron- sulfuric acid

• 1781 A.L. Lavoirsier names “hydrogen” for “maker of water”.• 1783 Montgolfier brothers launch a hydrogen balloon in France.• 1820 Michael Faraday generates hydrogen by electrolysis• 1839 W.R. Grove demonstrates fuel cell to generate electricity.• 1870 Jules Verne states in his novel The Mysterious Island that

“hydrogen…will furnish an inexhaustible source of heat…”• 1871 Nikolaus Otto uses a 50% hydrogen mixture to run an

automobile engine• 1937 Hindenburg zeppelin explodes at Lakehurst.• 1973 Engineers all over the world investigate thermochemical cycles

for hydrogen production with nuclear reactors. • 1981 R. Shinnar et al show that thermo-chemical cycles for hydrogen

production are inferior to electrolysis.• 2002 DOE prepares a National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap

In 2003, the National Academy concluded that the vision of a hydrogen economy is based on two expectations:

• Domestic production of H2 can be affordable and environmentally benign

• H2 applications can be competitive in the market with alternatives

DOE Year 2030 Vision of Pathways to Hydrogen Production and Use

PhotovoltaicSolar thermal or biomass

Wind or OTEC

Fossil fuels

Renewable sourcesNuclear

Hydrogen

Electricity

Electrolysis of water

Fuel cell

ElectricityCombustion

Applications

Thermolysis of water

1

2

3

Chemical Conversion

Comparison of Electrolysis with Thermochemical Hydrogen Production

Primary Energy Source e.g. Fission, Fusion,

Solar

H2

O2

H2

O2

Heat Engine

Water Electrolysis

Heat Rejection

Heat

Heat

Heat

Rejection

Electricity

Thermochemical Process

Water

Water

Two Hydrogen Production Options

Reforming of H2 rich fossil fuel such as natural gas (CH4). Well developed chemical technology, efficient and inexpensive.

Electrolysis of water (H2O) separation of hydrogen by means of electric current. Well developed technology, needs electric power. Cost is three times that of reforming. Could use renewable source.

CH4 + 2H2O CO2 + 4H2

H2O H2 + ½ O2

Producing Electricity with Fuel Cell

Electrolysis

Fuel cell

Electricity

Hydrogen

Electricity

Present technology Advanced Technology

2.9 kWh 1.9 kWh

70% efficient 80% efficient

50% efficient 65% efficient

1 kWh 1kWh

Diagram of a Lead-Acid Cell

1800 Alessandra Volta describes first operating battery. Anode (negative pole) releases electrons which pass through an external circuit to the cathode, (positive pole). Poles are immersed in an electrolyte.

Hydrogen-Oxygen Fuel Cell

Discovered by William Grove in 1839

Fuel Cells of Current Technical Interest

Type AbbreviationOperating

Temperature

Polymer electrolyte fuel cell

PEFC 80ºC

Alkaline fuel cell AFC 100ºC

Phosphoric acid fuel cell PAFC 200ºC

Molten carbonate fuel cell

MCFC 650ºC

Solid oxide fuel cell SOFC 1000ºC

Well-to-Electric Grid Efficiency for Direct NG and Steam Reformed

Hydrogen Paths

Natural Gas,

%

S.R. Hydrogen, %

Production 95 95

Conversion to H2 n/a 78

Distribution (with H2 compression)

95 92

Conversion to electricity (Turbine or

Fuel Cell)

55 50

Overall Efficiency 50 34

Efficiency of Direct Solar PV and PV – Hydrogen Path to Electricity

Direct PV,

%

PV-Hydrogen,

%Solar Conversion to

Electricity15 15

Electrolysis to H2 n/a 78

Distribution (with H2 compression)

n/a 92

Fuel Cell to electricity n/a 50

Distribution 95 n/a

Overall Efficiency 14 5

Well-to-Electric Grid Efficiency for Direct Nuclear and Nuclear - H2 Paths

Nuclear,

%

Hydrogen,

%Production 90 90

Conversion to Electricity

36 36

Electrolysis to H2 n/a 78

Distribution (with H2 compression)

95 92

Fuel Cell for H2 to electricity

n/a 50

Overall Efficiency 31 12

HydricityIdaho National Laboratory

AC Electricity-H2-AC Electricity Loopreturns only 1/4th of the original AC Electricity

Comparison of Energy CarriersComparison of Energy Carriers

NowNow LimitLimit

Electrolytic Generation of HElectrolytic Generation of H22 7474 8585

CompressionCompression 9292 9292

Fuel Cell Conversion to ElectricityFuel Cell Conversion to Electricity 6060 7070

Overall EfficiencyOverall Efficiency 4040 5555

Hydrogen Efficiency (%)

Electricity

Storage (CAES, PWS, Battery) 75-80 85

Transmission Loss per 100 km

H2 Friction Loss in a Pipeline 0.8

Electric Transmission Loss 0.6

Compressed Air Electricity Storage System (CAES)

Conclusion• Unless future R&D can demonstrate economical

and safe production of hydrogen direct uses of fossil sources, nuclear fuel or renewable technologies are more efficient than using hydrogen by any currently available pathway to generate heat and electricity

• For the foreseeable future conservation in buildings and industry, increase efficiency and use of renewables in electricity production, synthetic fuels and improved mileage in transportation offer a more secure energy future than the hydrogen economy.

Transportation Crisis

• 97% of U.S. ground transportation is petroleum based, and in 2003, 53% of the oil consumed was imported.

• After housing, transportation is the largest budget item for the average U.S. household, larger than food or healthcare.

• Urban sprawl and lack of public transport make automobiles a necessity in the USA

Brief History of Electric Vehicles

1900 4200 Automobiles were sold– 40% were steam

powered– 38% were electric

powered– 22% were gasoline

powered1905

Electric Vehicle with Edison Battery wins 1000 mile endurance run

• 1990 California low Emission Vehicle Program (LEV) mandates that al least 2% of vehicles sold by each automaker have zero tailpipe emission by year 1998.

• 1991 – 1998 Automakers tested and promoted EVs, state agencies bought EVs and alternative fuel vehicles.

1999 – 2000 CARB removes EV mandate and automakers stop production of EVs.

Learn from the mistakes of Learn from the mistakes of others. You won’t live long others. You won’t live long enough to make them all enough to make them all

yourself.yourself.

Yogi BerraYogi Berra

Well-to-Wheel Efficiency Analysis

Feedstock Production

Feedstock T & S

Fuel Production

Fuel T & S & D

Vehicle Operations

Ground transportation technology options

• Electric Vehicles (EVs)

• Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)

• Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs)

• High Efficiency Diesel Vehicles

• Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs)

• Public Transportation

• Telecommuting

• Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

Well-to-Wheel Efficiency of Transportation Technologies

Vehicle DriveTechnology

FuelWell-to Wheel

Efficiency, %

Hybrid SI Natural gas (NG) 32

Hybrid Diesel Natural gas + Fischer Tropsch (FT) 32

Fuel cell + electric motor Hydrogen from NG 27

Hybrid SI Hydrogen from NG 22

Conventional diesel Natural gas + FT 22

Battery + electric motor Electricity from natural gas combined cycle

21

Conventional SI Natural gas 19

Fuel cell + electric motor Methanol 16

Conventional SI Hydrogen from NG 14

Fuel cell + electric motor Hydrogen (Electrolysis)

13

Well-to-Wheel Efficiency of Fuel-Cell Well-to-Wheel Efficiency of Fuel-Cell Vehicle with Hydrogen Produced by Vehicle with Hydrogen Produced by ElectrolysisElectrolysis

• NG Feedstock Production Efficiency NG Feedstock Production Efficiency 95% 95%• Conversion Efficiency (NG to electricity) Conversion Efficiency (NG to electricity)

55%55%• Electrolysis Efficiency (electricity to HElectrolysis Efficiency (electricity to H22) )

63%63%• Storage and TransmissionStorage and Transmission 97% 97%• Compression EfficiencyCompression Efficiency 87% 87%• Overall Efficiency of Fuel ProductionOverall Efficiency of Fuel Production 30% 30%• Total Fuel-Cell Well-to-Wheel Efficiency:Total Fuel-Cell Well-to-Wheel Efficiency:

(0.28 x 0.445 x 1.1 x 0.9)(0.28 x 0.445 x 1.1 x 0.9) 13% 13%

Nuclear Hydrogen Fuel Costsa Transportation Consumer

Three Times More Than Nuclear Electricity

Using 3-3.5 ¢/kWh as a placeholder price (note: being associated with AP1000-Rankine and claimed by VHTGR-Brayton).

Hydrogen Infrastructure Cost(Transportation Technology Center of Argonne National Laboratory)

• Assuming a fuel economy improvement for hydrogen FCV to 2.5 times of current conventional vehicles, (i.e. about 50 mpg) and a market penetration of 2% HFCV in 2020 and 12% in 2030, the cost is:– $60 billion in 2020– ~$170 billion in 2030

• If 40% of fleet is to be HFCV in 2030, minimum cost is $320 billion, but may be as high as $600 billion.

Making predictions is tricky; especially about the future.

-Yogi Berra

Hydrogen is the Fuel of the Future

• And it will always remain so…

EpilogueEpilogue

Are there alternatives to a Hydrogen Are there alternatives to a Hydrogen Economy?Economy?

Stopping population growth is a Stopping population growth is a necessary condition for the success of necessary condition for the success of any proposed long range energy policy.any proposed long range energy policy.

World Oil Production per Capita vs. Time

Electricity Generation

• Coal-fired Power Plants with CO2 SequestrationCost: 5-7 c/kwh1

• Nuclear Power Plants with Safe Long Term StorageCost: ~6-8 c/kwh1

• Solar Thermal Power Plants with Sensible Heat StorageCost: 5-9 c/kwh1

• Wind Turbines with Compressed Air StorageCost: 4-8 c/kwh2

Ref. 1 Sustainable Energy by J.W. Tester et al. MIT Press 2005Ref. 2 Estimates from Colorado PUC Hearing by Personal Communications

TransportationTransportation

Plug-in Hybrid Electric VehiclesPlug-in Hybrid Electric VehiclesWith Metal-Hydride or Lithium Ion Batteries and Off-With Metal-Hydride or Lithium Ion Batteries and Off-

Peak Charging. Peak Charging. Levelized Cost Effective over 8-10 years.Levelized Cost Effective over 8-10 years.

(EPRI Study, 2003 ~70-80 gpm)(EPRI Study, 2003 ~70-80 gpm) Synthetic FuelsSynthetic Fuels

a)a) Diesel by Fischer-Tropsch Process from Coal Diesel by Fischer-Tropsch Process from Coal (SASOL)(SASOL)

b)b) Ethanol from Sugar Cane, Cost-effective in BrazilEthanol from Sugar Cane, Cost-effective in Brazilc)c) Ethanol from Switschgrass, Proposed by President Ethanol from Switschgrass, Proposed by President

George W. Bush, needs more R&D.George W. Bush, needs more R&D.

A Final Word of CautionA Final Word of Caution

Anyone who believes that one Anyone who believes that one can have exponential can have exponential growth in a finite world is growth in a finite world is either a madman or an either a madman or an economist.economist.

Kenneth BouldingKenneth Boulding