Failure analysis integrated multi stakeholder mental model and project life cycle

FAILURE ANALYSIS OF MALFUNCTION WATER RESOURCES PROJECT IN THE

NORTHEASTERN THAILAND: INTEGRATED MENTAL MODELS AND PROJECT LIFE

CYCLE PERSPECTIVE APPROACH

Advisor: Professor, Dr.Tsunemi WatanabeExamination Committee: Professor, Dr.Seigo Nasu

Professor, Dr.Osamu TomisawaProfessor, Dr.Yoshinori NakagawaAssociate Professor, Dr.Takashi Goso

By

Piriya URAIWONGKochi University of Technology

2013/2/12

Malfunction water

resources project

1. Causes of this malfunction?2. Stakeholder’s behavior associated

with malfunction?3. Solution for the problem?

1. Failure analysis2. Stakeholder’s

mental models analysis

1. Integrated mental models with WBS in project life cycle perspective

2. Multi-Stakeholder’s behavior in malfunction project

1. Identified failure causes and solutions

2. New failure analysis approach

Research problem

Research questions

Methodology

Results

Conclusions

Determine

Produce Permit

Answer

2

Defining “Malfunction” and “Failure”

• “Malfunction”- Fail to work normally or properly (v.), failure of this kind (n.) (Oxford advanced learner’s dictionary,1989)

• “Failure” – The inability of the project to deliver the intended benefit to the identified stakeholders

• Many levels of failure- from mild failure to complete failure (Layton, 2011)

3

Problem statement• Malfunction small-scaled water resources

project – “a project that Fail to work normally or properly to deliver the intended benefit to the identified stakeholders”

4

Problem statement

17%

27%43%

7% 5%

Water resources project condition (Department of Water Resources: DWR,

2008)

Good condition

Minor recon-struction

Rehabilitation

Re-construction

Rejected

5

Research objectives

1. To identify factors which cause malfunction in water resources project

2. To study behavior of key stakeholder who participated in malfunction of water resources project

3. To offer tools and methods that loosen constraints regarding malfunction water resources project

6

Research questions

RQ1 • What are factors which cause an malfunction of water resources project?

RQ2• What are behavior of key stakeholder’s who

participated in malfunction of water resources project?

RQ3• What would be proposed measures or

mechanism to improve water resources project management in Thailand?

7

Methodology

8

Research methodology1. Preliminary diagnose malfunction project:

Failure Knowledge Database

2. Introducing integrated failure analysis approach

3. Multi-Stakeholder’s mental models analysis

4. Proposes measures and action plan

Develop analysis method

Application to cases

Constraint-measure

9

Introducing integrated mental models and project life cycle approach for failure analysis

10

Previous work on failure analysis

• Check sheets and Modified Pareto analysis (1897) • Cause-and-effect diagram (Ishikawa diagrams,

1960’s)• Fault tree analysis (Fussel, 1976)• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis: FMEA (IEEE std

352)• Failure knowledge database (Hatamura, 2005)• Integrated Water Resources Management (1992)

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Limitation of conventional analysis and Proposal of new approach

• Conventional analysis -> Less include stakeholder’s mindset in failure analysis

Data collection Root cause identification

Recommendation generation and implementation

Stakeholder’s mindset

Propose -> Overcome limitation of regardless complexity of stakeholder mindset and behavior associated with a failure project

Integrate

12

Mental models

• “The images (attitudes and assumptions) we carry in our minds about ourselves, other people, institutions, and every aspect of the world which guide our interpretations and behavior.”

(HSBC sign ad)

13

14

Coding and mapping mental models

Stakeholder semi-

structured interview

Coding

concepts

Mapping

Network of concepts

Influence map(Adapted from Carley, 1997)

Statement

Key aspects and process of mental models of an individual in decision

Mental modelsHeuristics/

biases

influence

Possible actions & effects

(changed)Action Situation (AS)

/ Outcome

(3)Mental models

processing

(4)Framing issue

(1) Selective observation

(2) Perception

Action

(Adapted from Isendahl, 2010)

Background: personal, cultural, education

15

Individual

Mental models and situations

Mental models 1

Mental models 2

Mental models 3

AS1 AS2 AS3 AS4 AS5

Project

AS = Action situation16

(Pahl-Wostl et.al., 2006)

Project life cycle and work breakdown structure

The project life cycle

Initiating and Planning

Work element 1.1

Work element 1.2

Construction

Work element 2.1

Work element 2.2

Operation and Maintenance

Work element 3.1

Work element 3.2

17(Haugan, 2003)

Chronological progression of failure

Cause

Background

Event Action Sequel

(Result)(Hatamura, 2005)

18

Influence

Differencesof actualsituation

Influence

Consequence Integrate

Integrated approach

19

Integrated framework

Mental models 1

Mental models 2

Mental models 3

20

Planning phase

Result/ Sequel

Construction phase

Operation and maintenance phase

AS 1.1 AS 2.1 AS 3.1

AS 1.2

AS 1.3

AS 2.2

AS 2.3

AS 3.2

AS 3.3

Stakeholder 1 Stakeholder 2 Stakeholder 3

Cause/Background

Event/Action

Integrated process

1. Define problem context: project, phenomenal, etc. (by Failure knowledge database and project lifecycle and work breakdown structure)

2. Identify stakeholders and elicit stakeholder’s mental models

3. Apply multi-stakeholder’s mental models under project life cycle and work breakdown structure

21

Practical application of integrated approach

22

Failure Knowledge Database

Actions

Results

(Hatamura, 2005)

Cause

23

Initial diagnosed factors related to malfunction project

01. Occurrence of abnormal 02. Insufficient knowledge : 08. Poor concept 09. Poor planning :

15. Self-protection 16. Economic loss

: 21. External damage

Causes

Actions

Results

(Complete result can be found in attachment # 1) 24

Case study I

25

Downstream blockage

Fractures on concrete structure

Broken radial gates with stolen

pulleys

Case study II

26

Structural failure

No use of canal (growing rice in

the canal)No area maintenance

Semi-structured interview

Interviewee group Number

Officer in the Department of Water Resources (DWR) 5

Officer in the Local Administration Office (LAO) 4

Project user 12

Total 21

27

Partial mental models influence diagram

28

The DWR lack of training and education in project

operation and maintenance

The DWR lack of continuity to follow

up the project

Project user disregard of procedure

Project user lack of maintenance

Malfunction of project

No specific budget for maintenance

work

Idea of “I need water, but I don’t want to fix when the project is broken”

DWR-HQ03 mental models influence diagram

bureaucratic reform of theThai government in October

2002

projects under the ARDwere transfered to the DWR

establishment ofthe DWR

projects inventorysystem

budget and projectsinventory approvement from

the cabinet

process of budgetapprovement took almost

2-3 years

no budget for projectmaintenance

no activity onprojects

projectmaintenance work

regional officeresponsibility

regional office payattention on new project

the DWRimplementation plan

no attention on maintenancework for projects transfered

from the ARD

projects proposedby politicain

lack of continuity onproject maintenance

no maintenance budgetwhen the DWR was

established

the Bureau of Budget didn'tsee importance of

maintenance budget

malfunctionprojects

cooperation betweenthe DWR and locals

tendency ofdecreasing in number

locals satisfy with aproject

human resourcemanagement

organization vision,mission and policy design

adaptation of officersfrom various agencies

proposal on hiring consultantcompany for publicparticipation work

projects proposed bylocal's need

regional officenegotiation with

politician

annualimplementation plan

public participation processstated in the Prime Minister

Office Regulation

small public hearingprocess for couple hours

establishment ofwater user group

running by ownfund

technical supportfrom the DWR

the DWR does notsupport budget all time

otherwise they willonly wait for help

increasing income

area development

the DWR provide locala stage to speak

local feel that the DWRdoesn't leave them

integrated work ofbureaus in the DWR

attitude of theDWR officers

not sharing experiences andproblems in publicparticipation work

previous constitution didn'tpay attention on public

participation

problem in publicparticipation

government implementmore public participation

activity

the DecentralizationAct 1999

projects transfer to localadminstration office

the DWR transfersknowledge to local

administration

transfered projectfacing problem

local administration office'sbudget problems in first

couple years

project O&M, projectmanagement, establishment of

water user groupdifferent budget system

from the DWR

the local administrationneed to manage their own

budget

problem of agencyshortage number

solving by makingalliance

put people at centerand adjust ourselve

budget andtechnology support

coordination betweenpolitician, the DWR and

local is needed

trust from local is themost important

creat the DWRvalue

DWR-HQ03

29

KY-LAO02 mental models influence diagram

insufficient waterquantity for agriculture

useflooding

pumping station and usergroup establishment

no water user group forthe weir project

Kud Sri Pum weirproject

function as a bridge to cross acanal to transport agriculture

product

problems related tothis project

looking for solution fromthe TAO as priority

the TAO responsibilityfor all civil work

project damagesassesment

under capability ofthe TAO

over capability ofthe TAO

repair work looking for help fromothe agencies

free access

decision made bymajority of water users

conflict resolution done byvoting among water users

social mechanismpreventing personal

selfishnessincooperate with

the TAO

unequal benefitamong water users

disign rule preventingoverloaded truck to cross

the weir

percieved as senseof ownership

no bridge to cross thestream in this area

malfunction of theproject

the pulley wasstolen slump and cracks

occurance on theinfrastructure

drastic water fluctuationin dry and wet season

heavy traffic overthe weir

perceive as projectworking well

unable to closethe gate

rejection on projecttransfer from the DWR

afraid of occurance ofserious structure damages in

future

becoming the TAOburden

request full rehabilitation ofproject to be in a good

condition

accept the projectfrom the DWR

tax payers

expectation of benefitfrom the localadministration

lack of knowledge onproject operation and

maintenance

villager benefit lost

the TAOuncapable of help

solving problem bythemselves at last

KY-LAO01 mental models

30

KY-LV06 mental models influence diagram

water leaking fromspillway

pulleys were stolen

two out of four sluicegate are not working

poor roadcondition

projectmalfunctions flooding

difficulty in agricultureproduct transport

damages onagriculture products

income lost

large amount of waterreleased from the dam in

one time

looking for appropriatecompensation from the dam

negotiation with the damon water release regulation

weir structure issecured

water usage foragriculture

pumping station

serving half of thesub-district area

villager chief requestedproject to the local

politician

the politician contactedthe ARD agnency

project wasconstructed

discussion among localvillagers for new wier

small storage tempolary weirand always broken in rain

season

pulley chain wasbroken

fixed by villagers'smoney

maintenance workby the DWR

no cooperation withthe TAO

adding riprap atdownstream

buy new pulley fromvillagers's money

small conflict betweenupstream and downstream

negotiation byvillager chief

rule for water intake from thestream from villagers's

agreement

villagers agree andrespect the rule

meeting amongvillagers

no maintenanceplan

so far we can useit, it's ok

broken rubber sealaround the sluicegate

water leaking fromthe gate

old concrete

unwilling to spend muchmoney on public

maintenance work

difficulty in consensus onpublic property issue

concern for personalbenefit rather than public

benefit

unwilling to shareresponsibility but want the

same benefit

explanation andcompromisation by

villager chief

limited budget of theDWR and the TAO

understanding thelimitation

if budget is sufficient,villagers will help to take

care a project

function as abridge

monitoringoverloaded truck

difficult to get aproject

need to take care ofa project

sometimes fix some damagesbecause villagers benefit from

a project

benefit from a project ispercieved as sense of

ownership22

KY-LV06

31

Malfunction influence diagram

32

Stakeholder A Stakeholder B Stakeholder C

Work element

Mental models

Mental models

Mental models

Mental models

Mental models

Mental models

Plan

ning

ph

ase

Cons

truc

tion

phas

eO

& M

ph

ase

Work element

Work element

Mental models

Mental models

Mental models

Sequel

AS1 AS1

AS2

AS3

AS2

AS3

AS1

AS2

AS3

Malfunction influence diagramDepartment of Water Resources Local Administration

Office Project User

Project developmen

t phase

Construction phase

Operation and

maintenance phase

33

Low attention in stakeholder participation

No project involvement

Being ignored from

participationLess public

participation activity

Being ignored from

participation

Low project information sharing

Focus on project delivery

Project’s infrastructure

No involvement in construction

Ignorance of damages

Fear of burden and loosing face

Avoidance of responsibility

No long-term plan

No maintenance budget

No maintenance

Malfunction projectMental modelsActual

situation

Poor planning

No training for operation and maintenance No

knowledge

Minor damages

Expect benefit from

projectNo knowledge

No benefit from project

No involvement in construction

Case I

34

Case II

35

Summary of mental models toward project management

36

Perspective Department of Water Resources

Local Administration Office

Project Users

Priority of project goals

Delivery of construction project

Responsibility for all infrastructure project

Water needs and water usage

Main driving force

Organization missions and regulations

Community development

Economic incentives

Timescale of implementation

Short to medium term

Long term Long term

Ownership of the project

Authority from law and regulation

Local authority and organization capability

Based on benefit from a project

Responsibility of operation and maintenance

Central authority and available budget

Local authority and available budget

Based on benefit from a project

Summary of mental models toward project management

Perspective Department of Water Resources

Local Administration Office

Project Users

Causes of malfunction/ Constraints

- Budget constraint- No project life cycle

management plan- Politician

interference- Corruption - Lack of coordination

between units in the organization

- Low quality control in construction work

- Budget constraint- Limited number

of skilled-workers- Fear of burden

from malfunction project

- Self-interest in priority

- Lack of knowledge in operation and maintenance

- Absence of responsibility sharing

- Ignorance of malfunction

- Belief in politician’s power

37

Identified constraints

Lack of planning for implementation of the DWR

Capacity of the DWR and staff in project management

Absence of stakeholder participation

38DWR= the Department of Water Resources

Proposed measures

39

Constraints and proposed measures

Thematic 1:

Utilization project life cycle planning and management

Thematic 2:

Improving the DWR capacity to deliver service

Thematic 3:

Stakeholder participation and building capacity

40

Constraint 1:

Lack of planning for implementation of the DWR

Constraint 2:

Capacity of the DWR and staff in project management

Constraint 3:

Absence of stakeholder participation

DWR= the Department of Water Resources

Thematic 1: Utilization project life cycle planning and management

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Identification

Appraisal

Financing

Construction

Operation and

maintenance

Evaluation


Project phase Proposed measures

Project identification 1. The DWR should conduct situation and problem analysis and stakeholder analysis

2. Incorporate “Hierarchical cooperative objectives or goals” in the project identification process

42

Identification

Appraisal

Financing

Construction

Operation and

maintenance

Evaluation


Project phase Proposed measuresProject appraisal 1. The DWR should concern on the

sustainability aspects of the project formulation

2. Project should have capacity to continue and become sustainable without external support

3. Estimation the life cycle cost over the whole life of the project or at least first four years is needed

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Identification

Appraisal

Financing

Construction

Operation and

maintenance

Evaluation


Project phase Proposed measuresProject financial

management1. The DWR’s executive negotiation with

the Bureau of Budget on operational and maintenance fund

44

Identification

Appraisal

Financing

Construction

Operation and

maintenance

Evaluation


Project phase Proposed measuresProject construction and quality control

1. Formulate the construction quality control committee composed of representatives from the DWR, the Local Administration Office and project

2. Foster a proper sense of professional ethics in the DWR staff of pride in the work and the value of the job

3. Continual education, training and monitoring system are necessary

45

Identification

Appraisal

Financing

Construction

Operation and

maintenance

Evaluation


Project phase Proposed measuresProject operation and maintenance phase

1. Established the provisional operation plan and maintenance schedule

2. The DWR should take a role of a facilitator to facilitate the technical issues

3. Maintain a performance database including maintenance records, condition assessment data and other items

4. Periodic inspection in project performance is needed

5. Adequate funding and resources must be secured for the operation and maintenance

6. Establish the emergency maintenance fund at the central office

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Identification

Appraisal

Financing

Construction

Operation and

maintenance

Evaluation


Project phase Proposed measuresProject monitoring

and evaluation1. Framework of the project assessment

system

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Identification

Appraisal

Financing

Construction

Operation and

maintenance

Evaluation

Themes Index

Overall assessment

Efficiency

Resources used correctly

Obtained result compared to result used

Complication of project management

Stakeholder relationship

Effectiveness

Implemented activities compared to objectives and plan

Degree of achieving expected results

Impact

Long-term impact on the project surrounding environment

Direct and indirect change produced by the project

Sustainability

Likelihood the benefit produced by the project to continue without external

subsidiesCapacity of organization established for the

project

Developed competencies of staff

Framework of the project assessment system

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Indicator categories

Thematic 2: Improving the DWR capacity to deliver service

49

• provide training, technical assistance and management support service

Establishment of “the capacity building unit”

• Review process of project planning, designing, construction and implementing

• Guideline for appropriate and effective public participation, etc.

Identify and develop a series of practical guidelines for operation

Thematic 3: Stakeholder participation and capacity building

50

• could be achieved through supportive reasonable budget

Stakeholder participation and stakeholder capacity building program is a repetitive activity

• describe the difficulties and identifies practice

Diagnose and identify particular factors that can make public participation difficult to implement

Be carefully in adopting a process for selecting best techniques and tools for the situation

Propose of Beneficiary Contribution Approach

1. Scheme is identified by local with technical supports and construction work from the DWR

2. Beneficiaries and related stakeholders must be involved in all stages

3. Scheme must produce sufficient benefit for project life cycle management

4. Beneficiaries contribute equivalent to the cost of first year of Operation and maintenance

5. Monitoring and evaluation system must be applied to project

51

I: Development of project preliminary phase• Preliminary design• Information

sharing

II: Water users’ cooperative establishment and a project plan development phase• Detailed design&

Cost• Stakeholder analysis• Water user

cooperative organization & MOU

III: Construction and operation and maintenance phase• Beneficiary

contribution• Project O&M

supported by the DWR

Stages in Beneficiary Contribution Approach

52

Conclusion

53

Conclusion 1: Integrated stakeholder’s mental models in failure analysis

• Applicable and useful method

54

Conclusion 2: Causes of malfunction project

– Lack of planning for implementation of the Department of Water Resources (DWR)

– Capacity of the DWR and staff in project planning and management; and

– Absence of stakeholder participation and stakeholder capacity building

55

Conclusion 3: Stakeholder’s behavior• The Department of Water Resources (DWR)– Focusing on delivery project side – Low respond to project operation and maintenance

management demand• Local administration office– Recognized their limitation of budget and low capability – Avoid or transfer burden may occurred from malfunction

project to the project owner• Project users– Very sensitive, income is main driving force– Disregard of maintenance ignorance after project

became malfunction and made no benefit the project was abandoned

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Conclusion 4: Proposed measures

• Three thematic– Thematic 1:Utilization project life cycle planning

and management– Thematic 2:Improving the DWR capacity

to deliver service – Thematic 3:Stakeholder participation and building

capacity• Beneficiary contribution approach

57

Publications

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Publications

International Journal1. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2012). “Small-scaled water

resources project in Thailand: Failure analysis and improvement of stakeholder involvement”. Journal of Society for Social Management Systems (Peer-reviewed) serial SMS12-6080.

2. Komatsu T., Nakaya S., Uraiwong P., and Watanabe T. "Multi-Stakeholder Mental Model in Monobe River Improvement and Maintenance. "Journal of Society for Social Management Systems (Peer-reviewed) serial SMS12-9459.

3. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2011). “Stakeholder analysis of water resources projects in Thailand”. Journal of Society for Social Management Systems (Peer-reviewed) serial SMS11-5587.

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Publications International Conference 1. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2012). “Small-scaled water resources

project in Thailand: Failure analysis and improvement of stakeholder involvement”. The 8th International Symposium on Social Management Systems SSMS2012 - Disaster Prevention and Reconstruction Management -, 2-4 May 2012, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, R.O.C.

2. Komatsu T., Nakaya S., Uraiwong P., and Watanabe T. (2012). "Multi-Stakeholder Mental Model in Monobe River Improvement and Maintenance. The 8th International Symposium on Social Management Systems SSMS2012 - Disaster Prevention and Reconstruction Management -, 2-4 May 2012, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, R.O.C.

3. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2011). “Stakeholder analysis of water resources projects in Thailand”. IESL-SSMS Joint International Symposium on Social Management Systems 2011, 14-16 September 2011, Colombo, Sri Lanka

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Publications

International Conference (cont.)4. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2012). "Public Awareness Campaigns and Education Program in the Monobe River." Thailand-Japan International Academic Conference 2012 Proceeding. Tokyo, Japan, October 20125. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2011). "Model for Small-scaled Water Resources Project Development: Based on Thai Case." Thailand-Japan International Academic (TJIA) Conference 2011. Tokyo, Japan, November 20116. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2010). “Community mechanisms for water resources risk management”. Proceeding of International conference for a sustainable Greater Mekong Subregion, King Mongkut’s University of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand,26-27 August 2010, pp.431-434.

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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Failure analysis integrated multi stakeholder mental model and project life cycle

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