Failing forward v2
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Failing Forward
David Matheson, President and CEOSmartOrg, Inc.www.smartorg.com
#BEI13
@VirtualDavid
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© 2000-2013 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.
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When heroes fail
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A great technology and a compelling customer need are necessary but not sufficient to change the world.
What is missing?
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The work of innovation: answering three questions.
Market/ customer need
Technology/ Product Solution
Doesanybody care?
Can weDo it?
Shouldwe do
It?
Winning Opportunities
Strategic and Economic value
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Our image of innovation
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Stage-Gate focus: Delivery
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Predictability Efficiency
What are some values associated with delivery?
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The reality
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Agile Focus: Learning
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Uncertainty Ambiguity
What are some values associated with learning?
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Failing Forward Workshop
Agenda
Introduction
A common model of innovation
Formulation: the learning plan
Incubation: pivoting
Advancing your own work
Conclusion
Purpose
Advance real innovations your are working on.
Explore and develop this important question by comparing notes and experiences.
Generate insights and results from our interactions.
Create a highly interactive session and great networking environment among peers.
© 2000-2013 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.
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David Matheson
Dr. David Matheson has helped senior management of firms in the United States and Europe improve their results from portfolio management, product development, innovation, R&D, capital investment and strategy, and is an expert on measuring value and managing uncertainty. His practical experience covers a wide variety of industries,
including printing, software development, biotechnology, telecommunications, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, manufacturing, electric power and entertainment. He is co-author of the best selling book, The Smart Organization:
Creating Value through Strategic R&D (Harvard Business School Press) and has authored numerous articles on innovation, portfolio management and decision making. In addition to SmartOrg, his executive roles include: currently
member of the board at Photozini, Inc. and prior to founding SmartOrg in 2000, a principal at Strategic Decisions Group.His Ph.D. is from Stanford University, where he currently teaches
on Strategic Portfolio Management and other topics at the Stanford Center for Professional Development
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SmartOrg software and services helps companies find the most profitable projects
Life science Aerospace Technology Other
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Eric McAfee
Founder
Aemetis, Inc.Solargen EnergyEvolution PetroliumPacific EthanolProcera NetworksNetstream
Investor
McAfee CapitalCagan McAfee Capital PartnersBerg McAfee Companies
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© Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.14
Thought Leader: Rich DuncombeInnovation Catalyst Group
33 Years with HP− Directly involved in 35+ major innovation
projects− 70% involve disruptive innovation− 60% started during idea inception− Founder, HP Sensing Solutions business− Founder, GM/VP of Retail Photo Solutions
My specific role is innovation catalyst− Build the vision, attract the talent and secure
necessary resources− Catalyze the innovation from inception through
incubation− Come back to the front end
How we make it matterCo-innovation and collaboration is key to a healthy innovation system – my partnerships include:− Shell− Boeing− Motorola− Intel− IBM− Oregon State − Stanford− RPI
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Industrial Age• BS, MS Industrial
Engineering, LSU• Ford/Volkswagen JV• MBA, MIT Sloan• The Boston Consulting
Group
BIO
Ricardodos Santos
Imagination Age• Lecturer SDSU• Mobilocity (Tech Startup)• Qualcomm (Innovation
Management)• Biological Dynamics
(Biotech Startup)
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Introductions
Name, Company, RoleWhat are you working on that you want to advance in this session?Your favorite food
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Failing Forward Workshop
Agenda
Introduction
A common model of innovation
Formulation: the learning plan
Incubation: pivoting
Advancing your own work
Conclusion
Purpose
Advance real innovations your are working on.
Explore and develop this important question by comparing notes and experiences.
Generate insights and results from our interactions.
Create a highly interactive session and great networking environment among peers.
© 2000-2013 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.
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Asking executives what worked and what didn’t:
• What have you tried in the last ten years or so?• What worked really well and should become (or remain in)
the innovation canon?• What did not work well, was significantly oversold or under
delivered, and should fade from memory?
© 2000-2013 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.
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The five must-do’s of innovation management:
1. Use iterative, learning-based processes.2. Make uncertainty and ambiguity your allies.3. Allow innovation to challenge strategy.4. Experience your customers.5. Find and support committed innovators.
© 2000-2013 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.
Go to www.smartorg.com and search for “assessing the state of innovation” to download a whitepaper and view a webinar.
PDMA Visions
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Making Innovation Soar.
FormulateIdeate Incubate Accelerate
Reformulate
Committed Innovators with
actionable insight
Aligned Learning
Plan
Proven Opportunity
Scalable Business
ExpandsFocuses
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Ideation: finding the committed innovator with unique insight.
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Niccolò Machiavelli on Innovation:
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“It ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new.”
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A common misconception:
“People think ideas are the input to the process. This is wrong. Ideas are the byproduct of the committed innovator.”
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Alberto SavoiaSerial EntrepreneurCurrently at Google
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In every field, HHMI grants generated the most important and innovative research.
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Funds projects based on rating proposals on multiple criteria.
Funds researchers and encourages them to explore interesting topics.
Source: Jonah Lehrer, author of How We Decide, from his blog “The Necessity of Funding Failure.”
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Having committed innovators is not enough; your innovator needs actionable insight.
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Market Customer Technology Trend Etc.
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Formulation: aligning on a learning plan.
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Success FactorsShelter the project from internal metrics and processes
Banish supplier / procurement thinking
Have the tough conversations up front
Negotiate based on principles
Never over estimate your knowledge of your partner
Every decision needs to improve risk adjusted value
Communicate your vision (prepare the market, build your brand)
Market disruptions are often driven by technology innovation
New businesses fail for commercial reasons
Internal
Partner
ValueCreation
MarketDisruption
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
The more outrageous the vision, the more resilient the program10
Real-time traffic conditions
Security/Access
Climate monitoring
Water/Gas
Infrastructure health
Home automation
Home security
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Aspirations are low
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Can we distribute motor oil in a cardboard box?
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Frost & Sullivan wrote up a best practice guidebook for the Formulation Phase.
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See a webinar or download at: www.smartorg.com/hpguidebook
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How to develop a DVD burner that writes its own label? (circa 2002)
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A feature in our computers
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Multiple strategies – need to learn which is best.
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A feature in our computers
License out
A consortium-based inside brand
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Laying out your strategic choices
Brand Business Model
Market Scope HP Contribution HP's Role in Optical Drive Industry
Consumer Strategy
Consumer Software
HP Branded
HP HP Branded drives and discs
HP Branded PC's Only
Optical drive design, disc coating material and consumer software application
HP works with select partners to build HP specific solution
HP drives demand as a proprietary feature
HP exclusive software feature
Harvest IP White Label License on Drives and Discs
All MS and Apple PC's
IP Only HP provides licenses to all industry participants -- HP does not develop solution
Disc Brands drive consumer demand
Open development platform for all optical drive software
Drive Consumer Standard
Ingredient Brand
License on Drives and Discs
All MS and Apple PC's
IP and certification HP works with all suppliers to build standard solution
Create industry standard and trademark
Open development platform for all optical drive software
Drive Industry Standard
Ingredient Brand
License on Drives and sales of Disc Coating Material
All MS PC's, all aftermarket drives and replicators
IP, disc coating material and certification
HP works with all suppliers to build standard solution and becomes the exclusive supplier of LightScribe coating material
Create industry standard and trademark
Open development platform for all optical drive software
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Which uncertainties matter?
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Future disc usage? Bill of Materials Cost?
Strong growth supported by multiple third-party experts.
Detailed engineering estimates and contracts show BOM within 5%.
Team not concerned.Team very worried estimates might be 10% off.
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Lightscribe sensitivity analysis (Tornado Diagram)
Loss Small OK Good GreatNPV given launch success
The team was focusing on the wrong factors.
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If mp3 players take off, then business is small
If copyright favors disc distribution, then business is great
BOM uncertainty has limited impact on business
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Incubation: delivering on the proof points.
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Work vs. proof: HP’s idea for the “ATM of photo printing.”
• What is the biggest source of risk?
• Supply Chain― Very difficult to set up, very
complex― Large source of schedule and
budget variance.
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Work vs. proof: HP’s idea for the “ATM of photo printing.”
• What is the biggest source of risk?
• Supply Chain = needs work― Very difficult to set up, very
complex― Large source of schedule and
budget variance.― HP is world class at this!
• Behavior change = needs proof― Will someone encountering a station
on the street pull out their camera card and print?
― To get evidence, saturate an area with prototypes.
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TechnicalPhase Cost ($M) Uncertainty
Probability of Success
Product Development 2$ 47%Performance 95%Reliability 90%Channel Partner Trials 55%
Scale -Up 10$ 8%Ease of Use 25%Business Model Validated 35%Channel Partner Commitment 90%
Total Cost 12$ Million 4%Expected Cost 10.9$ Million
Common plans: morale building, strength focused
Big questions left unanswered until late in the project—an expensive way to fail. Note Expected Cost and Total Cost are close.
Big questions left unanswered until late in the project—an expensive way to fail. Note Expected Cost and Total Cost are close.
A risky project. The overall probability of technical success is the probability of overcoming all the hurdles in all the phases.
A risky project. The overall probability of technical success is the probability of overcoming all the hurdles in all the phases.
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TechnicalPhase Cost ($M) Uncertainty
Probability of Success
Product Development 2$ 5%Ease of Use 25%Business Model Validated 35%Channel Partner Trials 55%
Scale -Up 10$ 77%Peformance 95%Reliability 90%Channel Partner Commitment 90%
Total Cost 12$ Million 4%Expected Cost 2.48$ Million
Learning plans: manic anxiety, uncertainty focused
Revised Project Plan
Reordering plan to “fail fast” radically reduces expected cost.
Reordering plan to “fail fast” radically reduces expected cost.
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Print Engine
Fast 4x6 Print EngineAddressing the needs of incumbents
“Dry” Photofinishing labSemi-Attended EnvironsLow Volume Stores
“Can I get the printer part of the kiosk”
“Just chop the head off, add an Ethernet, and I’ll write you a check!”
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Acceleration: growing up.
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What is the best first major account for your new business?You have launched a business. • Customers are enthusiastic about the product.• You are making money (gross margin), but still require
investment to grow.• The product is in version 1.0. • Manufacturing is ramping up.
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OR
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Adolescent businesses need adult challenges in a safe environment.
Need P&L discipline without crushing pressure.Require the flexibility to adjust.Have lots of awkward issues that need to be worked through.Metrics that transition to full P&L accountability.
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Beware the kill zone
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Upstart / New Established
Accelerate Phase (transitional metrics from proving to P&L)
Established Business (on commit plan of executives in a significant way, routine part of corporate strategy)
KILL ZONE= 100% failure
External Reality
Inte
rnal Tr
eatm
ent Acceleration
Trajectory = 100%
Success
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Making Innovation Soar.
FormulateIdeate Incubate Accelerate
Reformulate
Committed Innovators with
actionable insight
Aligned Learning
Plan
Proven Opportunity
Scalable Business
ExpandsFocuses
© 2000-2013 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.
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Where is your organization strongest? Most in need of improvement?
Ideation
Formulation
Incubation
Acceleration
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A culture shift in innovation.
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How companies increase innovation project risk and what to do about it.
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Norm for Creates innovation risk
Resolved by
Predictability Failure Frame Learning Frame
Urgency Kill Zone Taking time to accelerate
Reasonableness Mediocrity Formulate boldly
Fitting in Incrementalism Courage
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Failing Forward Workshop
Agenda
Introduction
A common model of innovation
Formulation: the learning plan
Incubation: pivoting
Advancing your own work
Conclusion
Purpose
Advance real innovations your are working on.
Explore and develop this important question by comparing notes and experiences.
Generate insights and results from our interactions.
Create a highly interactive session and great networking environment among peers.
© 2000-2013 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.
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Quick survey
What are your innovation aspirations?
$1M in new revenue
annually
$5M
$10M
$50M
$100M
$500M
$1B
What is your innovation delivery?
$1M in new revenue
annually
$5M
$10M
$50M
$100M
$500M
$1B
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Table exercise
What is the inspiring vision for your innovation project?
Select one at the table for further focus and discussion.
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Success = delivering an Exploitable Business Asset.
What would you want to know before mortgaging your house to pay for your company to launch the product?
• Technology• Market• Partnerships / Suppliers• Customer / Patient• Cost / Reimbursement• Regulatory• …
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Table exercise
What are the most important proof points for the focus project?
Select the most problematic and decisive at the table for further focus and discussion.
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The best proof points are…
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Problematic Decisive
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Proof points: what would cause you to stop (or significantly redirect) the project?
DO – a good list DON’T – a bad list
Focus on evidence needed
Focus on tasks needing lots of work
Take the full business perspective
Stay in your comfort zone
Creates something exciting and worthwhile
Fulfills the stage-gate requirements
Create developable, clear and objective proof points
Create mushy proof points
Include only material issues:• Problematic• Decisive
Pile on:• If it is 90%+, omit it.
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DILBERT © (1999) Scott Adams. Used By permission of UNIVERSAL UCLICK. All rights reserved.
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Table exercise
What activities would advance learning and deliver on the proof?
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What is your gap between proof and work?
1 = project is focused on delivering work234 = project is balanced between work and proof567 = project is focused on delivering
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Failing Forward Workshop
Agenda
Introduction
A common model of innovation
Formulation: the learning plan
Incubation: pivoting
Advancing your own work
Conclusion
Purpose
Advance real innovations your are working on.
Explore and develop this important question by comparing notes and experiences.
Generate insights and results from our interactions.
Create a highly interactive session and great networking environment among peers.
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Three questions
How do you know it is time to pivot?
What can you do to pivot?
How does pivoting go wrong?
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Rotation Exercise
Each Thought Leader takes a station.
Divide into groups.
Work question for 10 minutes.
Rotate to another station. Repeat.
At end, each Thought Leader gives a five minute report on five biggest insight.
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Failing Forward Workshop
Agenda
Introduction
A common model of innovation
Formulation: the learning plan
Incubation: pivoting
Advancing your own work
Conclusion
Purpose
Advance real innovations your are working on.
Explore and develop this important question by comparing notes and experiences.
Generate insights and results from our interactions.
Create a highly interactive session and great networking environment among peers.
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Individual worksheet
What is your compelling vision?
What are the most important proof points?
What can you do to learn about them as quickly as possible?
What are potential pivots?
What are you personally committed to?
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Pair up & discuss
One person speaker, the other listener.Speaker describes their situation and ideas – 7 minutes
• The listener’s job is to support the speaker. The more safe space provided by the listener, the more direct and authentic the speaker.
Listener provides feedback to speaker in support of their commitments – 3 minutes
Rotate (I’ll keep track of time)
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Failing Forward Workshop
Agenda
Introduction
A common model of innovation
Formulation: the learning plan
Incubation: pivoting
Advancing your own work
Conclusion
Purpose
Advance real innovations your are working on.
Explore and develop this important question by comparing notes and experiences.
Generate insights and results from our interactions.
Create a highly interactive session and great networking environment among peers.
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What are your top five commandments for failing forwards?
Thou Shalt…
Thou Shalt Not…
Write on index cards.Vote using the “like” method:
• Circulate and review others’ cards.• Vote on your favorite two (or fewer).• When you reach five votes on a single item, bring card up to
be read.
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Don’t settle for safety and mediocrity.
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“As this is your proposal, Cosgrove, its failure could mean the end of your career. I think, however, that is an acceptable risk.”
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Formulate your projects for greatness.
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and execute.
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SmartOrg® provides software and services to help companies evaluate their opportunities and make the best decisions about where to invest, especially when the future is clouded with uncertainty. Customers use SmartOrg® to build their capability in driving innovation from idea to commercial results and in selecting projects, improving returns in their portfolio.
SmartOrg® helps companies to attain the highest value from projects and portfolios.
855 Oak Grove, Suite 202Menlo Park, CA 94025 USAT: [email protected]
www.linkedin.com/company/smartorg
@smartorginc
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About SmartOrg