Fads Facts Fools - Stanford Universitybk381xh9135/bk381... · 2015. 10. 19. · c C3r^...

6
:/; c *X QjuA\v)>r^ C3<\t «vn^ cX^e^ serving such an kfcaL They think that it is wonderful that our "culture has changed" so that "divorce is easier," and theyrevel in the "positive results" achievedin their own cases. Indeed, after reassuring die reader about fathers' ability to provide child care, they encourage other women in pursuit of education, professional ad- vancement, and freedom to consider their options. Given Mr. Packard's dis- covery that three-fourths of anglefathers feel "overwhelmed," suchadvice is sound only as feminist ideology. In most in- stances, lathers simply don't make good mothers. Antimaternalism, moreover, can only swell the already-rising tide of custody cases in which neither parent wants the children. Bias against motherhood has also af- fected die care given children in millions of intact homes. Because of the decline in prestige accorded homemakers, many mothers take jobswithout any economic pressure to do so. Their childrenare then left at a day-care center, typically a "ware- house for children" chosen onthe basis of cost and convenience,, not quality, Mr. Packard finds. Eventhe best centers leave emotional and social scars less fre- quently found on children with an at- home mother. Older children who come home from school to M*A*S*H reruns and frozen pizza also suffer and, in aim- less destruction for they have nothing else to do—cause suffering. As he surveys "the modern form of damnationthat confronts our children," Mr. Packard is justifiably distressedWith teenage drug abuse, juvenile delin- quency, and adolescent promiscuity all at unprecedentedlevels, we must con- clude with him that "our society is seriously malfunctioning in its role of preparing children for adulthood" But Mr. Packard's analysis of this malfunc- tioning is finally unsatisfying. He knows why we are "blighting our youngsters": he sees die damage wrought by feminism and by the "do your own thing" philoso- phy, and he recognizes the frightful ef- fects of the "decline in religious belief as a force in daily living." like too many other sociologists, though, he is so daunted by the liberal Zeitgeist that he will not trust his conservative impulses enough to confront the spiritual bank- ruptcy of our age squarely. His conclud- ing chapter, which emphasizes corporate and governmental policies for support- ing families, is superficial and disappoint- ing. In it he praises Sweden for its long- standing "family policy," apparently obliv- ious to the fact that that policy has done nothing to curb Sweden's astronomical divorce and illegitimacy rates. American efforts to help the family through state Fads , Facts & Fools Edward A. Feigenbaum and Pamela McCorduck: The Fifth Generation: Artificial Intelligence and Japan's Computer Challenge to the World; Addison-Wesley;Reading, MA. David Buraham: The Rise of the Computer State; Random House; NewYork. byGaryS.Vasilash xV fewyears ago, CB radio antennae sproutedon theroofs andtrunksofautos like alien growths from anaverageHolly- wood movie. People began to affect drawls, and instead of askingsomeonefor his or her astrological sign, inquired about that person's "handle." Formula- tions like "Silver Fox," "Sugar Daddy," "Big Momma," and (he like followed. When stories ofvacations wererecited,* the goingbecamethemajortopicandthe arrivingand stayingtookapathetie second place; listenerswereregaled with tales of "convoys" and "Smokeys" and "putting the hammer down." Commercialradio stations played tunes centered on the wonders of "trucking" with a CB, and Hollywood quickly cranked out a few feature films on the subject Diet books Mr. Vasilash is associate editor Chronicles of Culture. of bureaucracies have so far proved just as ineffective, if notcounterproductive. Cer- tainly, the burgeoningfamily-assistance programs have had no visible effect upon a dismal trend curiously overlooked by Mr. Packard: adolescent suicide in the U.S. has climbed 250 percent in the last 20 years. It is up to parents, not social workers, to rectify this calamitous situa- tion by replacing theworship of self with devotionto spouse and family. If they do not, the answer to diequestion "Who will get the children?" will increasingly be "The county coroner." were pushed offthe shelves at bookstores and off ofthe racks at grocerymarkets by texts that included CB codes and other handy tidbits of information. The most popular channel in the countrybecame channel 1 9, and it wasn't on the dial of a television. "Good buddies" everywhere knew where to tune in. If some skeptic were to mutter something about how CB's were nothing more than a step up from the for dice thatonce dangled from rearview mirrors or the cats mountedon rear decks with red eyes that were lighted when the brake pedal was de- pressed, he was overpowered with 17 April 1984

Transcript of Fads Facts Fools - Stanford Universitybk381xh9135/bk381... · 2015. 10. 19. · c C3r^...

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*X QjuA\v)>r^C3<\t«vn^ cX^e^

serving such ankfcaL Theythink that it iswonderful that our "culturehaschanged"sothat "divorce iseasier," andtheyrevelin the "positiveresults" achievedin theirown cases. Indeed, after reassuring diereader about fathers' ability toprovidechild care, they encourage otherwomenin pursuitofeducation,professional ad-vancement, and freedom to considertheir options. Given Mr. Packard's dis-coverythat three-fourths ofanglefathersfeel "overwhelmed," suchadvice issoundonly asfeminist ideology. In most in-stances, lathers simplydon'tmake goodmothers. Antimaternalism, moreover,can only swell the already-rising tide ofcustody cases in which neitherparentwants the children.

Bias against motherhoodhas also af-fected diecaregiven children inmillionsof intact homes. Because of the declinein prestige accordedhomemakers, manymothers take jobswithout anyeconomicpressure to doso.Their childrenare thenleft at a day-carecenter, typicallya "ware-house for children" chosen onthe basisof cost and convenience,, not quality,Mr.Packard finds. Eventhe best centersleave emotional andsocial scars lessfre-quently found on children with an at-homemother. Older children whocomehome from school toM*A*S*H rerunsand frozen pizza also suffer and, in aim-lessdestruction—for they have nothingelse to do—causesuffering.

As he surveys "the modern form ofdamnationthat confronts our children,"Mr.Packard is justifiably distressedWithteenage drug abuse, juvenile delin-quency, and adolescent promiscuity allat unprecedentedlevels, we must con-clude with him that "our society isseriously malfunctioning in its role ofpreparing children for adulthood" ButMr. Packard's analysis of this malfunc-tioning is finally unsatisfying. Heknowswhywe are"blighting ouryoungsters":he sees diedamagewroughtbyfeminismand by the "doyour ownthing"philoso-phy, and he recognizes the frightful ef-fects ofthe"decline inreligiousbeliefasa force in daily living." like too many

other sociologists, though, he is sodaunted by the liberal Zeitgeist that hewill not trust hisconservative impulsesenough to confront the spiritual bank-ruptcy ofour agesquarely. His conclud-ingchapter,which emphasizes corporateand governmentalpolicies for support-ing families, is superficial and disappoint-ing. In it hepraises Sweden for its long-standing"familypolicy," apparentlyobliv-ious to thefactthat thatpolicyhas donenothing to curb Sweden's astronomicaldivorceandillegitimacyrates. Americanefforts to help the family through state

Fads ,Facts&FoolsEdwardA. Feigenbaum andPamelaMcCorduck: The Fifth Generation:Artificial Intelligence andJapan'sComputer Challenge to the World;Addison-Wesley;Reading, MA.

David Buraham: The Rise of theComputer State; Random House;NewYork.

byGaryS.Vasilash

xV fewyears ago, CB radio antennaesproutedontheroofs andtrunksofautoslikealiengrowthsfrom anaverageHolly-wood movie. People began to affectdrawls,and insteadofaskingsomeoneforhis or her astrological sign, inquiredabout that person's "handle." Formula-tions like "Silver Fox," "Sugar Daddy,""Big Momma," and (he like followed.Whenstoriesofvacationswererecited,*the goingbecamethemajortopicandthearrivingand stayingtookapathetiesecondplace; listenerswereregaledwithtalesof"convoys" and "Smokeys" and "puttingthe hammer down." Commercialradiostations played tunes centered on thewonders of"trucking"with aCB, andHollywood quickly cranked out a fewfeature films onthe subjectDietbooks

Mr. Vasilash is associate editorChronicles ofCulture.

of

bureaucracies have sofarproved justasineffective, ifnotcounterproductive. Cer-tainly, the burgeoningfamily-assistanceprograms havehad novisible effect upona dismal trend curiously overlooked byMr. Packard: adolescent suicide in theU.S. has climbed 250percent in the last20 years. It is up to parents, not socialworkers, torectify this calamitoussitua-tion byreplacing theworship ofselfwithdevotiontospouse andfamily. Iftheydonot,theanswer to diequestion"Whowillget the children?" will increasingly be"The county coroner." □

werepushed offthe shelves atbookstoresand offoftheracksat grocerymarkets bytexts that included CB codes and otherhandy tidbits of information. The mostpopularchannelin the countrybecamechannel 19, anditwasn'tonthe dialofatelevision. "Goodbuddies" everywhereknew where to tune in. Ifsome skepticwere to mutter something about howCB'swere nothing more than a stepupfrom thefor dice thatonce dangledfromrearviewmirrorsorthe catsmountedonrear decks with red eyes that werelightedwhen the brake pedal was de-pressed, he was overpowered with

17April 1984

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stories about the value of the radios,abouthowthe deviceswere instrumen-tal in gettingmedical assistance to acci-dent victims and in preventing thugsfrom victimizing stranded motorists. Itseemedas ifCB'swere here tostay.Butthen people began to tire of asking forsomeone's"20"(i.e., location)andallofthe "ratchet jawing"that the mere exis-tenceofaCBbelowa dashboardseemedto demandbecamean exercise intedium.Theantennae wiltedas Wells'sMartiansexpired. CB'sremained where they es-sentially originated and where theybe-long: in the cabs of long-distance truckdrivers.

Those clear-eyedobserverswho sawthroughthe CB crazecannowbe heardsaying similar things about home com-puters. And as Texas Instruments pullsoutofthemarket(thesamemoveitmadewhentheflashofdigitalwatchesbegantofade) andJ. C.Penneystops sellinghomecomputers, the skepticsfind themselveswithwhatcanbe interpretedas industrysupport for their contentionthat com-puters are CB's by another name. To acertainextent,theyare correct Whileahomecomputer hasadegreeofapplica-bility inanygivenhousehold,itisn'tquitethe panaceathat thosemarketingthe de-vice claim that it is. One can make ahousehold budgetwith acomputer,theright program, andawholeraft offiguresand filerecipes withperipheralmemoryequipment (typically an option); thesamethings can be donewithpaper andpencil,often inamoreexpeditiousman-ner. Then there's the word-processingcapability of home computers which,proponentsclaim, makes diegadgetsfarsuperior to typewriters. Word proces-sors dohavealegupontypewriters—buthowmanypeople buya specialtableonwhich to mount their typewriters andhowmanyofthosewhodothat usetheirtypewriterwith afrequency thatwouldjustify spending at least some $300 onwordprocessing? Computerizedbudget-makers, recipe hoarders, andwould-beHemingwaysarefew andfar between,sothe capability of playing video gameswithout needing quarters or tokens is

toutedAnd lest anyonefeels toosybarit-ic about blowing a chunkofthe(non-computerized) householdbudget on asophisticatedtoy, the admenare sooth-ing with the claim that computers aregoodfor the kids: theywill need to be"computer literate" in the world of to-morrowthat's developingtoday. As thedust settles on all of those high-techkeyboards andas TVsare liberatedfromdie multicolored wires, the skepticssmile.But their satisfactionwillbe short-lived

HomecomputersarenotexacdylikeCB's. The faddish nature of both is diesame, but the principle behind homecomputers (i.e., that the computer is.atool) ismuch morethorough anditsef-fectwill be, in the not-so-distantfuture,morepervasive than any technologicaldevelopmenthas beenin recent mem-ory.Thisisnottosaythatoneofthose lit-tlegems thatcomeswitharebate form isgoingtocause aseachangeindailyliving,for those devices will probably end upwiththefiir dice,tail-lightkittys, andCBradios. As Edward A. Feigenbaum andPamelaMcCorduckpointoutin73beFi/ifeGeneration:Artificial IntelligenceandJapan's Computer Challenge to theWorld, dieJapaneseare in themidstofaprojectthat, ifallgoes as expected,will

result in computers that will make diebest and brightest American devicesseem somewhatretarded. What'smore,the Japanesedevices won'tbe limitedtouse inlargeorganizationsandindustries,but will be "inexpensive and reliableenoughtobeusedeverywhere.moffices,factories, restaurants, shops, farms, andfisheries, andofcourse, homes."Althoughthe tideofthebook soundsasbombasticas those about UFO's, pyramid power,andmagic diets, there is substanceto itAs thesituation inthe automobileindus-try clearly shows, the Japaneseare notthe mere copycatsthat they wereoncepopularly characterized as being; theproverbial shoe is on the other footWhenthe Japanese launch aproject toenteramarket,dieydosowithgreatseri-ousness: consider35-mmcameras,wrist-watches, stereo equipment,TVs. Nowtheir sights are set on computers. Notonly are they workingon conventionaltypes, but they are developinga moresophisticated system that could, within10 years, make Japan the informationpowerhousenonpareil

Theuse ofthewotdjapanese hereisdeliberateandismeantto signifythat theeffort isnotbeing madebya singlecon-cern, not justbyanOriental IBMorCon-trolDataCorporation.In1982,theMini-stry of International Trade and Industry(MITI), thatbugbear ofAmerican man-agers, decided to launch a project todevelopwhataredesignatedfifth genera-tion computer systems. The precedinggenerations are, inorder:electronic-vac-uum tube, transistorized, integrated cir-cuit, and very large-scale integrated(VSII) computers. The super-fast com- ,putersoftodayandtheonesdiatareinde-velopmentatthe leadingAmericancom-panies are, mainly, VSLI types. Exacdyhowanyofthese computersoperateisoflittle concern here. The point is simplythat theJapanesegovernment,recogniz-ing that information processing is be- .coining a multibillion dollar operation, ||figured thatJapanmust solidify itsposi- Jtionasanexporter.Asitmustimportraw amaterialsfor manufacturing andagricul- |?turalproductsfor eating,superiorcom- ;|;

18Chronicles ofCulture

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puterhardware andsoftware areseenasideal products—especially ifthey'rebetter thanthoseofferedby anyoneelse.MITI organized the Institute for NewGeneration Computer Technology(ICOT) which is backed by Fujitsu,Hitachi, Nippon Electric Corporation,Mitsubishi,Old, Sharp, andToshiba; Nip-pon Telephone and Telegraph andMITI's Electrotechnical Laboratory arealsocooperating Theeffortat ICOTis tobuild that better computer for the19905.

Conventional computers are won-dersat processing data andcomputing;they don't "think." What the Japaneseaim to build isso different that it has aspecific name,KIPS: Knowledge Infor-mationProcessing System. FeigenbaumandMcCorduck defineKIPS as a com-puterthat will have"symbolic inferencecapabilities, coupledwith very largeknowledge bases, andsuperbhumanin-terfaces, allcombinedwithhighprocess-ingspeeds."Peoplecanargueuntiltheyare blue in the face about whether anelectronic device can think or reason,aboutwhethertheconceptofartificialin-telligence isn't merelyanescapee fromscience fiction pulps. (Indeed, the au-thors point out thatAmericans tend tophilosophize about such matters whiletheJapanesearebusywithengineering.)But the next generation of computerswill dosomethingthat isvery muchlikethinking, and this is not mere specula-tion, for currentiy existing "expert sys-tems" areawfullyclose.Essentially,anex-pertsystem consistsofaknowledge base,an inferencesystem, andan input/outputsystem. Usingamedicalanalogy, Feigen-baum and McCorduck explain, "Theknowledge base you use is what youlearned in medical school and in theyears of internship,residency, specializa-tion, andpractice. It'swhatyou learn indie journals. It consists of facts, pre-judices,beliefs, andperhapsmost impor-tant, heuristic knowledge." Heuristicsarerules ofthumb, waysthatadoctor,al-mostautomatically,applies whathe hasin hishead tothe problemathand The

reason that the system iscalledanexpert means:apatient's history,vitalsigns,pre-system is because the facts and the scribeddrugs,andotherdata can be en-heuristics are gleaned from living, tered into thesystem andit's likelythatbreathing experts, likemedicaldoctors. thecorrect diagnosisandtreatmentwillTheinferencesj«temisMiierethe"think- beproducedby the system. Thefurthering"isdone.Theii^>ut/outputsystemnot developmentofINTERNIST/CADUCEUSonlyperforms the activitiesthatitsname won't necessarily lead to a situationimplies, but it also hasthe capabilityof wherein physicians line up with autoexplainingwhy the system as a whole workersat unemploymentoffices; itwillcametoaparticularconclusion.Oneex- permit medicinetoreach areas(throughpertsystem,atdieUniversityofKtt*uigJi, remote devices)where it's currentiyiniscalled INTERNIST/CADUCEUS; itper- short supply,whether itbethe outbackformsdiagnosesininternalmedicine.Ac- or outer space. Other expert systemscordingto the authors, it "coversmore existfor fields includingbioengineering,than80 percent ofall internalmedicine; chemistry, computing,andengineering,itsknowledge base encompassesabout .500 diseasesand morethan 3500 man- Auofthismaysoundasiftheskepticsifestationsofdisease."Imaginewhatthis areright: CB'sarefortruckers, and com-

Stevens

geographycan be applied to Wallace j^^^jgJifeßStevensasasubjettfbrbiograpfay:There'sgothought there. A biography is the Wf§fmM£L\rendering ofaparticular individual'sfife. W^S^Mlm^ \

While everyoneknows that Stevens wasa gpl||ap|a|k |IwfijB| Ic^)tivatingpoet,he,vwthi^a-dioh_s<_ay- I^^^H.MS^\vlkl^^P Itodayexistence,wasmoreabusinessman,anexecutive atthe Hartford Accident and Whereas the life ofa say, DelmoreIndemnity Company, than poet. Thus, Schwartz, maybe interesting giventhedetails about his eating coldroast beefc sodalintercourseinvolvedinthequotidian

" every Wednesday for lunchand his. activities,with Stevens, die poetry's the- pend^for solitarywalks are about the -htag Inft, the solitary, surlyman istruly\ only thingsthatcanbe drawntogether. greatHisrecognition ofthe importanceof

Brazeauemploystheoi^biog_^)_iyft»ni, the activity that heperformed during die- feaftii^nKMKdaguesofpeoptewhoknew "other"part ofhislife, which hewrote:■ Stevens. In effect, the book is merelya aboutin"The_irat_onaiee___entinl\3etiy,B

variatkxi oncollectingthepencflshavii^ is moretellingthan any comprehensiveofthepoet it migfrtbe fescirating stufffor Q_i_ectkmc€reocrei_ngia^sciwlarewhowouldfedcomfortabtemthe the purposeerfeach ofus towritepoetrytoAcademy ofLagado,where Gulliver find the goodwhich, in diePlatonic sense,

: wattiiedanandemsbidentpeffDimtag^aKi is synonymouswith God. One writes; <jperatfon toreduce lium_me3_crefliaJtto pae^, thai,taoider toapproach

itsoriginalfood'"' tawhat ishanrexaousandorderly." D

il9April 1984

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M

putersarefor technologists.Sofar, that's theJapanesein thevariousbefore-men-correct (excepting, of course, those tionedfields, andthefact thatJapanwillrogueswhouse their homemodels),but require new products to maintain (orthenthe objectiveofICOT mustbecon- surpass) itsposition intheworldmarket,sidered Certainly, itwill havetofurther KIPS doesn't sound like blue-sky think-develop existing equipmentand create ing—and as anyAmerican industrialistsome sizable innovations, butgiven the will acknowledge, dieJapaneseare ex-projectparticipants, thetrackrecord of tremely applications-oriented. What's

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more, dieJapanese, given their meagernaturalresources, have come torecog-nizethat it'simperativethat theydomorethan less. One solution that they havecapitalizedupon isapplyingthinkingtoresources; thought takes precedenceover force. The peqple in the country(those whoreally have to stretch theless) recognize this fact As mentioned,KDPS isprojectedto be accessibletothehome market.It couldbeusedasaroom-ful ofexperts waiting to answer ques-tions about subjectsfrom astrophysicstoplumbing;what'smore, itwillnotonlybeable toanswer questions,butwill be in-teractive in such away that it will helpleadthequestionertoformulate therightquestions.On dieotherhand, it couldbeusedas anarcade game toendallarcadegames.ItwiUbeatooloratoy.Thosewhorecognize that knowledge ispowerwillmakethemostofKlPS;therestwiUfallbe-hind—way behind. Feigenbaum andMcCorduckare tothepoint: 'Torformerflower children and otherblithe spiritswho crashed to earth during dieeconomiccontractionsofthe 19705,dielessonsJapanhastoteachmustseemabitdreary: diligence, study, application,duty, responsibility, suppleness, pa-triotism, andplayingdiegamewith inten-sity."Given ahome KIPS, it's not likelythat a young man or woman in Japanwould spend an inordinate amount oftime blasting imaginary aliens with it;there seemstobearecognitionthatthereisabonafidecountry that needs defend-ing.Thesame cannotbe said aboutmanyintheUnited States.

_3ome ofthe most startling evidenceofthiscomes through inTheRise oftheComputer State by David Burnham.Burnham'sresume includesan employ-mentrecord atUPI,Newsweek, CBS, andtheNewYorkTimes. IfFeigenbaum andMcCorduck can be considered manicwithregard totheir optimismaboutKIPS(and, indeed, their enthusiasm ulti-matelymakesthem somewhat suspect),thenßurnhamcanbeconsidereddepres-sivebecauseoftheanxietyhefeels abouttechnology:hesees it loominglikesome

20!Chronicles ofCulture

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evilcreatureinaMarvelcomicAlthough being adopted that make it easier and untiloneconsidershisplacesofemploy).computerfigures inthe titleofhisbook easierfor the NSA to dominate our soci- Presumably, less skittish Americansand is sprinkled throughout the pages ety should it ever decide such action is would feel goodknowing that law en-likeshardsofglassthataremeanttoshred necessary."Tacit is that itprobablywill forcement agencies have data—com-the feet of the barefoot innocents who find it necessary. Burnham rarely ex- puterizedorotherwise—diataidthemin

'*.*'

>stoppingcrimes or in seeing that crimi-

"... anentertaining book, studdedwithanecdotesaboutcomputer-system abuses." nalsare apprehended, thatwelfareagen-TbeNewRepublic cies have the information thatpermits

them tospot someofthosewho aretry-traverse:the course(once they're through plains, though he always implies. One ingtobilk thesystem, that thetelephoneit, they'll never want to get anywhere might raise a similar argument: it's company can (usually) make sure thatnear theobjectsofBurnham's derision), dangerousto equip the U.S.Army with one isn'tbilled for someone else'scall tovirtuaUyanythingthatsmacksofsophisti- contemporary weapons for they will Pago Pago. Knowing such thingsscarescation is the enemy. CB radios are not makeit easierfor the generalstostagea thepants offofBurnham aswellas thosesingledoutfor attack, thoughtheycould coup should they decidesuch action is ofWalter Cronkite, whointones in thebe: he could figure them as a diabolical necessary. The disturbing thing is that foreword, "If—or is it when?—-theseweb stretching over the highways and Burnham might agree.Burnham insists computers arepermitted to talk to onebyways, onethat theState could use to that the littleguywill be helplessin the another,whentheyare interlinked, theyensnare unsuspecting motorists for feceofthecomputerpowermassedbyall canspewoutaroomfulofdataoneachofsomenever-definedreasons. Ifit'smore of the three-digit organizations (e.g., us that will leave us naked beforewho-technologically complex than a table NSA, CIA, FBI, IRS, AT&T, IBM, etc.). I ever gains access to the information."lamp, thenit's suspect and somehowbe- wonderhowheexplainsteenagecomputer 'Whoever"is, ofcourse,BigBrother. Notcomes acomputer. For example,Burn- hackers? only are there numerous references tohamcitesthe incarcerationofJapanese- Oneofthemost unusual thingsabout Orwell throughout the book, there isAmericans during World War II and Burnham isthat heisawfully afraid ofin- even a drawingofthebigguy onthe duststates, "The Census Bureau data, re- formation (a condition that makes his jacket,corded on punch cards that could be chosenprofessionseemtobeanoddone, Computers canbe usedfor all sortsof

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:7, \quicklytabulatedbyakindofmechanicalcomputer," was instrumental. Clearly,one is to suppose, the "data," "punchcards"and"computer" areatthe heartofthe matter. Somehow, the modifier "akind ofmechanical" slipsby inthe emo-tionallychargeddiscourse.Aspreviouslymentioned, theelectronic-vacuum tubecomputerformedthe firstgeneration.It'sgenerally accepted that the first com-puter isENIAC, which madeits debutin1946—after the war. But that doesn'tstop Burnham, for he quicklymovesontoindicttelephonesandcabletelevisioa

His thesisisthattheworld thatGeorgeOrwell described in 1984 is aborning,that the equipment that isbeing put inplace by organizations, utilities, hospi-tals,andindustrieswill makeus allreadilymonitoredandmampuktedbinarydigitsin aMasterComputer. Americans are tobe gravelyconcerned(notthankful )thattheNationalSecurityAgencyhasmassivecomputers. Burnham warns,"Every day,in almosteveryarea ofcultureandcom-merce, systems and procedures are

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April 1984

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evil,vicious things.Computers are oper- this country up to speed in die field ofated bypeople, and as Feigenbaum and computers—not for the sake of com-McCorduck point out, "The intelligent puters, but for the support of free,machine—the knowledge information healthy, andproductivepeople, for theprocessor, the expert system, what- sakeofaviable polity in the 1990'sandever—demandsintelligent users."Amer- beyondOr,Americanscan actlikeBurn-icans can become intelligent users and ham and Cronkite and become heirstosupporttheeffortsthatarebeingmadeby thosewhooncewarnedabouttheevilsofpublicandprivate organizationstokeep electricity. □

Schizophrenia &PoliticsSeymour Martin Upset andWilliamSchneider: The Confidence Gap:Business, Labor, andGovernmentin the PublicMind; TheFree Press;NewYork-

byDanielDickinson

American public opinion," Theo-doreRoosevelt once said, "is avast ocean.It cannot be stirred with a teaspoon!"Since then, assorted experts have tried,with increasingly sophisticated tools, tomeasurethe depth, length, arid substanceof that sea of ideas, myths, biases, anddreams which constitutes the averageAmerican's conception of himself andthe world around him. To a significantextent, their purpose has been not justto measure opinion, but also to deter-minehow itmaybe molded. Sometimesthe pollstershave beenwildlywrong. Inthe celebratedLiterary Digest surveyof1936, over 2.5 million respondentsconfidently predicted the landslide vic-tory of Alf Landon over FDR In 1980,most of the major opinion firms antici-patedatightPresidentialrace. Ofcourse,the contest was not close at all. Still, ifmodernpollinghas yet to entertherealmof exactitude, it is equally far frompseudoscientific soothsaying. Polls dopresent a roughly accurate picture ofwho we are andwhatwe believe, so longas theproper questionsare posed.

Mr. Dickinson is directorofThePro-ductivity Communication Center inBoston

It is forthisreason thatpolitical candi-datesofeveryideologicalstripe areavidfollowers of surveys. In feet, it is ararecandidatefor anymajorofficewho doesnot commission polls. The extent towhich one is serious about winning isoften judgedby the pollster he hires. Ifhepicks Republicans ArthurFinkelsteinor Dick Wirthlin, or Democrats DaveGarth or Pat Caddell, or, more accurate-ly, ifthey agreeto takeonthe candidate,columnists, opinion leaders, and politicalaction committee coordinators thenknow thathe is "one towatch." Withouta big-timeconsultant, a candidate is oftenmarked as a loser before he starts. In avery real sense, politics has developedan echo effect That is, candidates take

polls to gauge public attitudes,andthentailor their statementsaccordingly. Thepublic, hearing what it already believesto be true, is thus reinforced in its pre-conceptions. Inaway, it'sagreat system—for those in elective office. Despitemassive public discontent with "politi-cians," therate ofreturns for incumbentsis extremely high. Everyone hatesCon-gress,yet nearly everyoneloveshiscon-gressman. As advantageous as this systemmay be for officeholders, it offers cer-tain limitationsforthe nationas awhole.Built into thepublic-opinion system isan inherent discriminationagainstthosewith independentideas,vision, orinnova-tive approaches, thosepeopleanationhasneed ofin timesofsocial andeconomiccrisis.

If any American political leader inrecent times has exemplified both thestrengths and weaknesses of govern-ment by survey, that individual wasJimmy Carter. Possibly the most intel-lectually able President since Hoover,Carter wasundoubtedlythe most skilledin the use of polling, and the media tosell himself and his program to theAmerican public. So obvious wasCarter'smanipulation of public attitudes that afamed seriesof"Doonesbury" strips hada Carter-appointed "image" consultantadvising the President onwhat towear.In the end, itwasCarter'sskill at readingthepeople that led, at least inpart, to hispolitical downfall. Since the public isnotorious for its inability, in the longterm, to ally itself to any firm setofpoli-cies, the CarterAdministration found it-self drifting between often contradictorypolicy alternatives in such importantareas as economic policy, energy, Cen-tral America, and the Soviet Union. Re-spondingto public disgustwith the "Im-perial"Nixon Presidency, Carter startedhis tenure by encouraging his staff totake afolksy, feet-on-the-desk approachto governance. Later, reacting to pollssuggesting that he did not project au-thority, Carterended upconductinghis1980primary campaign from theRoseGarden while the White House band

22Chronicles ofCulture

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