Faculty Council

Student Enrollment

Dr. Bernadette Gray-Little,Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost

September 15, 2006

The University of North Carolina

at Chapel Hill

Exploring Enrollment Trends:Current Status and Projections

Fall 2005 total enrollment was 27,276.

Current long-range plan, submitted to GA in Dec. 2005, projects 29,447 students by Fall 2015.

This plan exceeds all previous projections.

The Scholarship Provision increased the 10-year projected growth in undergraduates by 683.

Change in Undergraduate Projections in Response to Scholarship Provision

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

18000

18500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Revised 12/05 Plan Original 5/05 Plan

18,332

17,649

Concerns with the Present Enrollment Plan

Ability to maintain selectivity and quality of entering first year class;

Availability of space for classrooms, offices, laboratories, etc., which lags behind projected enrollment growth by 18-24 months.

Analyses of the Effects of Enrollment Growth

In considering growth beyond the current projection of 29,477 by 2015, we analyzed the potential effects of two expanded models: A 30,000 model that represents incremental,

but consequential, growth above the current plan; and,

A 35,000 model that represents rapid growth above the current plan. We considered and then discarded this model because of its profound implications for the academic, fiscal, and operational environment at Carolina.

Principles of Enrollment Growth

Sustain quality. No enrollment growth without faculty growth. No enrollment growth without appropriate level

of staff growth. Maintain commitment to our historical balance

of undergraduate, graduate, and professional education.

No enrollment growth without space provided in advance.

Maintain the residential character of campus – “a bed for every new (undergraduate) head.”

Improve the five-year graduation rate. Maintain a commitment to diversity.

* Developed by the Provost’s Enrollment Policy Advisory Committee and presented to the Board of Trustees in 2003.

Planning Assumptions (continued)

Main campus will absorb enrollment growth. Revenue from contracts and grants will

increase in proportion to the size of the faculty, but not at the same rates observed in the past decade.

The State of North Carolina will continue to fund 100% of projected enrollment increases.

The Campus Master Plan will govern development.

UNC-Chapel Hill Total StudentsHistorical and Projected

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

Historical 24141 24,189 24,238 24,635 24,872 25,464 26,028 26,359 26,878 27,276 27,726

29,447 27,726 28,188 28,588 28,891 29,101 29,212 29,306 29,374 29,432 29,447

30,000 27,726 28,346 28,808 29,125 29,386 29,576 29,765 29,885 29,986 30,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

UNC-Chapel Hill Total Faculty and StaffHistorical and Projected

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

Historical 8,883 9,288 9,619 10,011 9,725 10,111 10,481 10,676 10,935 11,036 11,428

29,447 11,428 11,707 11,804 11,967 12,157 12,127 12,236 12,234 12,266 12,305

30,000 11,428 11,786 11,917 12,090 12,307 12,317 12,450 12,465 12,520 12,542

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

UNC-Chapel Hill First Year StudentsHistorical and Projected

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

Historical 3,278 3,417 3,437 3,396 3,415 3,687 3,460 3,516 3,589 3,751 3,827

29,744 3,827 3,879 3,911 3,943 3,949 3,960 3,975 3,975 3,975 3,975

30,000 3,827 3,885 3,920 3,960 3,980 4,000 4,005 4,005 4,005 4,005

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Implications of Expanded Enrollment Growth on:

Academic Quality of Entering Classes

Non-Academic Areas

Effects of Enrollment Growth on the Quality of Entering

Undergraduate Students

Current Admission Outcomes

Fall 2006 baseline: 19,733 applications 34.1% admission rate 56.9% yield rate Our current admission and yield rates

are exceptionally good in comparison to other large research institutions.

Effects of Enrollment Growth on Yield Rate

Yield Rate = Percentage of admitted students who enroll. Results of recent survey* suggest that larger

enrollments would make Carolina less attractive to admitted students and that a significant percentage would choose not to enroll.

• Predicted net loss of 159 (4% of admitted class) would occur with a total enrollment of 30,000.

• Students who said that they would not come to Carolina if it grows to those levels tended to be those at the top of the admitted class.

*Source: 2006 UNC-Chapel Hill Admitted Student Survey

Effects of Enrollment Growth on Class Quality Indicators

As a result of lower yields of the top students, entering class quality indicators are likely to decline: Average SAT score Average high school GPA Average rank in high school class

Potential Effects of Enrollment Growthon Selectivity

Selectivity = the percentage of applicants accepted for admission. To maintain our current selectivity (34%), we would

need to increase the number of applications received from 19,733 in 2006 to 21,331 in 2015 at a total enrollment of 30,000

Additional applicants would come from the academically weaker portion of the applicant pool, because the majority of the top North Carolina high school students already apply to Carolina:

• 69% of those with SAT scores of 1300 • 69% of those in the top 5% of their high school class

Potential Effects of Enrollment Growth on the Diversity of the Entering Class

Enrollment increases may limit efforts to strengthen diversity in the entering class: Inequities in the quality of K-12 preparation

continue to constrict the pipeline of highly competitive students from underrepresented groups.

Carolina’s share of this pipeline is already large:

• For example, this year all but 15 African-American students statewide with SAT scores of 1300 and higher applied to Carolina.

Under an expanded growth model, minority presence, measured as a percentage of total enrollment, is likely to decrease.

Effects of Enrollment Growth on Research

Effects of Enrollment Growth on Research

Importance of the ratio of faculty to students:

• With more students, faculty have less time to devote to scholarly/scientific activities.

Maintaining the current faculty-student ratio, a guiding principle for UNC-Chapel Hill enrollment growth, has been a challenge in recent years. Although we have received enrollment growth funding,

budget cuts have eroded these resources and limited their intended use in expanding the faculty to teach the additional students.

ImprovingImproving the faculty-student ratio, a measure of institutional quality, becomes even more difficult as we increase the number of students.

Effects of Enrollment Growth on Student Affairs

Student Affairs: Implications of Growth Plan to 29,447 or 30,000

Housing capacity will be adequate to supply a “bed for every new undergraduate head.”

Campus Health Services facilities will need to be expanded to meet increased demand for services.

The existing ratio of staff to students in several service areas is already is unfavorable compared to peers, and will get worse.

Lack of meeting space has been identified by student leaders as the greatest problem facing student groups and organizations, and this too will worsen.

Summary

Summary

The University has exceeded its enrollment growth commitments, increasing by 13% over the past ten years.

Current enrollment plans will add 2,201 students by 2015. This represents an additional 8% growth over the next ten year period.

The current growth plan (29,447) presents challenges with classroom and office space, the number of faculty and staff required to serve students according to our standards, and possibly infrastructure and town issues.

The 30,000 growth model would add 553 additional students to the current plan. This would represent a 10% growth over the next ten year period.