Far West – What’s Happening in the Housing Market?The Far West Region covers eight local government areas as well as Unincorporated NSW, with Broken Hill the strategic centre. The region covers a vast and diverse area, which has historically been more affordable for rent and for purchase than is the case generally in non-metropolitan NSW. Nevertheless, there are still affordability issues here, with an increase in Commonwealth Rent Assistance recipients in housing stress since 2011, despite a decline in population and in low income households.

Far West Region – What’s Happening in the Housing Market?Housing Market - RentalRents Data for median rents for the LGAs in the region shows an upward trend over the

period from 1990 to 2019. Over the last 10 years price growth has been variable and particularly so over the last 12 month period to June 2019, with some LGAs experiencing price increases, some holding steady and others declining.

The graph below shows the increase in median rents for all dwellings in most of the Far West LGAs from June 1990 to June 2019. Note that data is only available for Balranald, Bourke, Broken Hill, Cobar, Walgett and Wentworth as there was insufficient turnover in the rental market in the other areas to determine median rents.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

At June 2019, median rents in the Far West ranged from $160 per week in Wentworth to $250 per week in Bourke.

Unlike the other LGAs in the region, median rents in Wentworth have declined since 2013, when they peaked at $240 per week and were the second highest in the region (behind Cobar). Rents in Cobar also peaked in 2013 but have recovered since a low in 2018.Generally the other LGAs have continued to experience growth in median rents over the last decade.

The table below shows the change in median rents for all dwellings between June 2009 and June 2019 in the Far West Region LGAs.

Median Rent – All Dwellings

AreaJune 2009

June 2019 Change

% Change

Balranald 138 215 77 55.8Bourke 145 250 105 72.4Broken Hill 170 240 70 41.2Cobar 165 200 35 21.2Walgett 170 200 30 17.6Wentworth 160 160 0 0.0

Over this time frame the highest increases in median rents occurred in Bourke (72.4%), Balranald (55.l8%) and Broken Hill (41.2%).

Vacancy Rate A vacancy rate of 3% is understood to represent a balance between supply and

demand in the rental market. According to REINSW there were insufficient responses to determine a vacancy rate for Far West.

In neighbouring Orana at December 2019 the vacancy rate was 1.8%, in Riverina it was 1.2% (both indicating a significant undersupply of private rental) and in New England it was 3.3%.

Affordable Rental The general trend across NSW has been for a decline in the proportion of rental

stock which is affordable for very low, low and moderate income earners. At September 2017, Bourke, Broken Hill and Wentworth had a lower proportion of

affordable rental for very low income households than was the case in June 2001, while both Cobar and Walgett had a higher proportion. None of the LGAs in Far West had a lower proportion of affordable housing for very low income households than the average of 23.1% for the Rest of NSW.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The graph below shows the change in the proportion of private rental accommodation affordable to very low income households in the Far West LGAs and Rest of NSW between 2001 and 2017.

The proportion of rental affordable for low income households in Wentworth was lower in 2017 than in 2001, but Bourke, Broken Hill, Cobar and Walgett all had a slightly higher proportion. The general trend in the region was for a decline in the proportion of rental affordable for low income households to 2013 and then improvement in affordability in most LGAs in the Far West since then, as the graph below shows.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

At September 2017, no Far West LGA had a lower proportion of affordable rental for low income households than the Rest of NSW average of 54.1%.

Rental Stress At the 2016 Census, the proportion of very low income households in rental

stress in the Far West ranged between 81% in Wentworth and 56% in Walgett. While none of the LGAs in the Far West had a higher proportion of very low income households in rental stress than the average of 89% for the Rest of NSW, every LGA had a majority of very low income households in rental stress. These are very high proportions of households in stress.

There were no LGAs in the Far West with a higher proportion of low income households in rental stress than the average of 62% for the Rest of NSW. Broken Hill had the highest proportion with 31%.

At the 2016 Census there were 702 very low and low income renters in housing stress across the region, down from 956 in 2011. This represents a 26.6% decline from 2011 to 2016.

The graph below shows the proportion of very low and low income households in rental stress in the Far West LGAs and the Rest of NSW at the 2016 Census.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The table below shows the change in the number of very low and low income households in rental stress in the Far West LGAs and the Region between 2011 and 2016.

Area2011 very low and

low income renters in stress

2016 very low and low income renters

in stresschange % change

Balranald 51 35 -16 -31.4Bourke 23 7 -16 -69.6Brewarrina 4 4 0 0.0Broken Hill 573 427 -146 -25.5Central Darling 0 4 4 Cobar 98 38 -60 -61.2Walgett 79 58 -21 -26.6Wentworth 128 129 1 0.8Far West 956 702 -254 -26.6

At 2016, Broken Hill had the majority of very low and low income renters in stress in the region, with Wentworth having the next highest number in stress.

The table below shows the number and proportion of tenants in the Far West Region who are renting their home, are in receipt of Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA), and despite this additional income support, are in housing stress.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Broken Hill had the highest number in stress and Unincorporated NSW and Cobar had the highest proportions in stress.

AreaTotal CRA recipients

2016

CRA recipients in Housing Stress 2016 % in Stress

Balranald 107 18 16.8Bourke 139 26 18.7Brewarrina 88 13 14.8Broken Hill 1,269 158 12.5Central Darling 94 3 3.2Cobar 129 28 21.7Walgett 458 41 9.0Wentworth 459 49 10.7Unincorporated NSW 54 12 22.2Rest of NSW 181,401 58,843 32.4Total Far West 2,797 348 12.4

The graph below compares the proportional change in the number of CRA recipients in total and the change in the number of CRA recipients in housing stress between 2012 and 2016 in Far West compared with the average for the Rest of NSW.

It shows that there has been a much stronger increase in the number of CRA recipients and particularly the number in housing stress in Far West than is the case for the Rest of NSW.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

This suggests that despite the decline in population, low income households and low income renters, those lower income households remaining are increasingly struggling to afford rental housing.

Loss of Affordable Housing Stock DCJ has calculated the number of new bonds lodged with the Rental Bond Board

that were affordable to low income earners in the Far West Region in 2006, 2010, 2013 and 2017. The region experienced a significant decline in affordable bonds lodged, and consequently loss of affordable housing between 2006 and 2017 – with 865 fewer affordable bonds lodged – representing a loss of 76% of affordable stock.

The table below shows the number of new bonds lodged that were affordable to low income households (including very low income households) in 2006, 2010, 2013 and 2017 in each of the Far West LGAs and Unincorporated NSW as well as the total for the Region.

It is clear from the table that Broken Hill (-350), Walgett (-154), Cobar (-111) and Wentworth (-102) have suffered the largest numeric losses. Yet proportionately, Balranald, Brewarrina, Central Darling and Unincorporated NSW had a 100% reduction, with no affordable bonds lodged in 2017.

No. of affordable rental properties for low income households

2006 2010 2013 2017

2006-2017

Change

% Change

Balranald 46 49 58 0 -46 -100%Bourke 68 47 73 23 -45 -66%Brewarrina 32 22 16 0 -32 -100%Broken Hill 497 488 477 147 -350 -70%Central Darling 21 37 36 0 -21 -100%Cobar 172 190 111 61 -111 -65%Walgett 165 100 123 11 -154 -93%Wentworth 137 143 101 35 -102 -74%Unincorporated NSW 4 6 5 0 -4 -100%Total Far West 1,142 1,082 1,000 277 -865 -76%

These are significant losses and together with the increase in the number of CRA recipients in housing stress, demonstrates the need for provision of targeted affordable rental housing.

Housing Market - PurchaseSales Price

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

DCJ has data on rent and sales from 1991 and the graph below shows the long term trend in the median sales price in the Far West LGAs. Due to periods where there are insufficient sales to determine a median, there is not a continuous trend line for every LGA.

Generally, dwelling prices have experienced stronger growth since 2004 in the Far West, although changes in dwelling price are highly variable.

Between March 2009 and March 2014 (the last period with full data for every LGA), dwelling prices increased by 448.8% in Central Darling and 129.3% in Balranald, but declined in Broken Hill and Walgett, as the table below shows.

Median Sales Price – All dwellings 2009 to 2014

All Dwellings

March

2009

March

2014Change

% Change

Balranald 103 235 133 129.3Bourke 103 170 68 65.9Brewarrina 46 55 9 18.8Broken Hill 135 100 -35 -25.9Central Darling 16 90 74 448.8Cobar 187 228 41 22.0Walgett 95 55 -40 -42.1Wentworth 150 260 110 73.0

Between March 2014 and March 2018 the median sales price in Walgett increased by 81.8%, in Broken Hill by 52.0% and in Wentworth by 19.5%, yet in Cobar it declined by 30.5%, as shown in the table below.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Median Sales Price – All dwellings 2014 to 2018

All Dwellings

March

2014

March

2018Change

% Change

Balranald 235 Bourke 170 Brewarrina 55 Broken Hill 100 152 52 52.0Central Darling 90 Cobar 228 158 -70 -30.5Walgett 55 100 45 81.8Wentworth 260 310 51 19.5

At March 2019, the median sales price in Cobar was $225,000 (up again from $158,000 in March 2018) and for Wentworth was $298,000 (down slightly from $310,000 in March 2018). There were insufficient sales to calculate a median for any of the other Far West LGAs.

Purchase Affordability In the Far West Region, purchase affordability for very low income earners is

easier than the average for the Rest of NSW. At September 2017, Wentworth was the least affordable with 43.6% of properties affordable for purchase by very low income households compared with 100% in Unincorporated NSW and 9.0% in the Rest of NSW.

The table below shows the proportion affordable for purchase by very low income households at June 2006 and September 2017. The improvement in purchase affordability in the Rest of NSW is largely due to recent low interest rates.

Proportion affordable for purchase by very low income households

Area June 2006

September 2017

Balranald 75.0Bourke 45.2 66.7Brewarrina 90.9Broken Hill 68.1 84.1Central Darling 87.5Cobar 34.5 59.3Walgett 53.1 90.9Wentworth 14.8 43.6Unincorporated NSW 100.0

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Rest of NSW 5.1 9.0

The graph below shows purchase affordability for very low income households in the Far West LGAs (where data is available) and the Rest of NSW between 2001 and 2017. It is evident that there has been considerably more variation in purchase affordability over this time frame in the Far West than is the case in the Rest of NSW generally.

At September 2017, purchase affordability for low income households was good across the Region, with little variation between LGAs – Brewarrina and Walgett had the lowest proportion with 90.9% affordable for purchase and Balranald, Bourke, Central Darling, Cobar and Unincorporated NSW all had 100% affordable as the table below demonstrates.

Proportion affordable for purchase by low income households

Area June 20 06

September 2017

Balranald 100.0Bourke 64.5 100.0Brewarrina 90.9Broken Hill 92.0 98.6Central Darling 100.0Cobar 79.3 100.0Walgett 84.4 90.9Wentworth 55.6 92.3Unincorporated NSW 100.0

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Rest of NSW 15.7 53.6

The graph below shows the change in purchase affordability for low income households in the Far West, compared to the Rest of NSW, between 2001 and 2017. Again there is more variation in affordability, for those LGAs where data is available, than is the case generally in the Rest of NSW. Historically the Far West has been and continues to be more affordable for purchase by lower income households than the average for the Rest of NSW.

Additional DataAdditional data on rents and sale prices, including both current and historical data, is available from the Rent and Sales Report on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/About+Us/Reports+Plans+and+Papers/Rent+and+Sales+Reports/

More detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More information on vacancy rates is available from the Real Estate Institute of NSW website (see their media releases on vacancy rates):

https://www.reinsw.com.au/

www.facs.nsw.gov.au