Facing the New Reality

8/3/2019 Facing the New Reality

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in Anutshell

Dear Friends and Colleagues:

Te Community Action Partnership presens here an unprecedened and exraordinary

repor: Facing he New Realiy: Preparing Poor America or Harder imes Ahead.Tis repor is based on he equally exraordinary premise ha much o wha passes orrealiy in he popular narraive is no based on realiy bu insead on a collecive denialo a genuine realiy oo difcul or mos Americans o ully comprehend or accep.

Tere are many versions o he popular narraive bu i ends o include heollowing belies: he Unied Saes will ully recover rom a srong bu emporaryrecession; we have access o enough energy rom coal, naural gas and nuclear powero mee our needs or decades; our economy will reurn o growh and keep growingor he oreseeable uure; echnology will solve our energy and climae problems;convenional agriculure will coninue o eed our naion and much o he res o he

world; and American prosperiy will solve our collecive deb crisis and bring a highersandard o living o all in a promising uure.

Tis repor suggess ha hese belies are cions ha serve many specialineress while deerring us rom acing he real and pressing need o prepare socieynow or unprecedened hardship, economic urmoil, resource scarciy and grealyincreasing ranks o Americans living in povery.

I may be helpul o know how his repor came o be writen. In 2004-2005,I began sudying he compelling case or peak oil (he poin when he worldsperoleum producion peaks hen goes ino permanen decline) and caasrophicclimae change. I concluded ha hese phenomena and heir economic eecs willhave massive impacs on Communiy Acion and our mission. I presened hisinormaion o he Parnership Board in 2006 and have provided updaes since.

In 2008, Board Chair John Edwards asked me o serve as chair o he Strategic

Initiatives ask Force, and he Board subsequenly unded a projec o bring ogeherleading expers and wriers on New Realiy opics along wih Edwards, ParnershipCEO Don Mahis, mysel and a ew ohers, in order o ocus on how hese issues willimpac low-income Americans. Tis group was convened a he Wye River ConerenceCener in Maryland in Augus 2010 and his repor is an ougrowh o ha meeing.

What is the New Reality?

Te phrase he New Realiy is used in his repor as shorhand or he near uure, aperiod ha we have already enered, projeced ou over several decades. Te reporacors in hree global mega-rends ha he repors auhors believe will be hedominan drivers shaping his period. Tese are: resource depleion, climae change

and economic urmoil. While no ye ully developed, hese mega-rends will ineracin ways ha will prooundly aec daily lie.


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Resource Depletion: Te worlds rapidly growing and modernizing populaion isconsuming he earhs limied naural resources a an ever-increasing and unsusain-able rae. Here are some major concerns:

aciviy and oil is he energy source we depend upon mos. Global producion oconvenional crude oil peaked in 2005 and unconvenional oil rom oil shale and arsands is barely making up he shorall while creaing new problems or waer, land,

wildlie and he amosphere.

exensive, bu as more accessible, higher qualiy sources are depleed, growingpracices like mounainop removal or dirier coal and hydraulic rock racuring(racking) or shale oil and naural gas carry high capial and environmenal coss

which limi heir uure viabiliy.

rapidly depleing many, i no mos, o he resources we use o susain civilizaion.Fresh waer, arable land, phosphorus or erilizer, seaood socks, lihium, gold, rareearh meals, rainores producs and oher resources are close o, or already pas,peak producion. When he easies and cheapes resource socks are gone, he res

become more expensive and generally come a a higher environmenal cos.

Climate Change:

he amosphere have rapped more o he suns energy over he pas cenury and havewarmed he earhs oceans, land masses and amosphere. Te warmer amosphere canhold more moisure and has more energy o drive mass air movemens and powermore requen and violen ornados, hurricanes, oods, droughs, snowsorms, hea

waves, dangerous hail and lighning sorms, and record rainalls. We can expec:

hea, drough and exreme ooding.

begin o break down.

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Economic Turmoil: While mos agree ha he global economy nearly collapsed inhe all o 2008, ew acknowledge ha nohing has undamenally changed o prevenhis rom happening again. Recen bailous o ragile European economies like Greece,

Iceland and Porugal (like he bailous o American nancial insiuions) increasedhe deb ha rs caused he deauls and likely se he sage or more economic chaosno ar down he road.

Also, he bewildering array o derivaives exoic nancial insrumens hacreae money bu no real wealh, ou o hin air are now monearily valued o arexceed he value o all real goods and services on he plane. As he hard physical limiso growh begin o appear in he orms noed above, he enire growh-dependennancial sysem may be headed or a very hard landing. We can expec: Tis repor ollows he srucure o he Wye rerea, where paricipans ramed heopics or discussion including: he economy, employmen, ood and ood sysems,healh care, housing, securiy, educaion, ransporaion, and communiy cohesion,communicaion, and culure. Te auhors o his repor were asked no only orecoun he rerea discussion bu o updae heir opics wih new inormaion ashese opics develop in ways ha increasingly reinorce he premise, noed above, hahe popular narraive is no suppored by he acs.

For mos o you, he uure his repor depics is in marked conras o heuure you expec. Te auhors know his and undersand ha many o you may be

mos Americans, may consider his repor doomer nonsense. Bu i isn, and wesimply can wai or he popular narraive o nally cach up wih he acs.

As he New Realiy coninues o unold around us, he preparaion we makenow or he real uure may become he mos imporan work we ever do. And whilemuch will be los as his New Realiy advances, we have he opporuniy o helprecreae somehing wonderul ha diminished during he age o abundance bu will

be essenial during he age o scarciy: auhenic communiy.

in Anutshell


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Wye River meeing atendees

are, in he ron row, rom lef,

Megan Bachman, Richard Heinberg,

Peer Kilde, Dmiry Orlov,

John Edwards; second row:Sharon Asyk, John Ehrmann,

Delphia Shanks, David Reid,

David Room; hird row:

Ken Meer, John Michael Greer,

Jane opolsky; ourh row:

Don Mahis, Nae Hagens,

Kelly Cain.

2011 Communiy Acion Parnership

Communiy Acion Parnership

1140 Connecicu Avenue, NW

Suie 1210 Washingon, DC 20036

phone: 202.265.7546 ax: 202.265.8850

www.communiyacionparnership.com

Te cover illusraion is inspired

by graphic design o an earlier era,

an era o is own scarciies

and hardships. A reminder

ha imes o scarciy need no

limi beauy, elegance nor

he power o he imaginaion.

Randall Rogers, Graphic Designer

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Leter o Inroducion Peer Kilde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

able o Conens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

John Michael Greer Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Nae Hagens Te Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Dmiry Orlov Employmen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

Ken Meer Food Sysems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Sharon Asyk Healh Care . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Peer Kilde Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Dmiry Orlov Securiy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Kelly Cain Educaion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

David Reid/Peer Kilde ransporaion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Megan Bachman Communiy Culure, Communicaion & Cohesion . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Richard Heinberg Communiy Economic Laboraories/An Idea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Wye River Paricipan Biographies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

table of contents

FACINGTHE NEW

REALITY

For in deph inormaion and updaed resources regarding he issues discussed in his repor,go o:www.communiyacionparnership.comand click on he New Realiy Iniiaive ab.


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JOHN

MICHAELGREERoverview

I can someimes be hard, a leas or hose who were here, o remember ha heenergy crises o he 1970s are ouside he experience o mos o odays Americans.Ta era o gas lines, sagaion, soaring energy coss and conservaion baed many

people a he ime, and since is passing, litle atenion has been paid o he lessonslearned in hose years. Tis ailure o memory bids air o become a drasic liabiliy o

America and he world, or he condiions ha brough hose crises ino being areemerging on a larger and more dangerous scale oday.

Tough many acors helped shape ha ime, he mos imporan was ha USperoleum producion reached is all ime peak in 1970 and declined hereaer. TeUnied Saes, he rs naion in he world o esablish a peroleum indusry, was alsohe rs o reach he geological limis o peroleum producion, and he inabiliy o heUS oil indusry o boos producion aer 1970, despie major advances in exracionechnology and generous ax policies, allowed OPEC o boos prices and wield is oilreserves as a poliical weapon.

In he wake o he 1970s, he Unied Saes and oher Wesern naionsscrambled o preven a repea o ha roubled decade by pumping recenly discoveredreserves in he Norh Sea and Alaskas Norh Slope a a breakneck pace, and developingrelaionships wih Middle Easern naions ha guaraneed a sable oil supply. Ta

worked or a ime, bu i was a sraegy wih a limied shel lie. A rush o produce oilbrough oher naions one by one up agains he same limis he US hi in 1970.

A his poin, mos o he worlds oil-producing naions have seen heir ownproducion peak; in 2005, he world as a whole reached peak producion o conven-ional peroleum, and producion o all liquid uels, including unconvenional oil andperoleum subsiues, has been suck in a bumpy plaeau since hen wih he ranicproducion o alernaive uels sruggling o keep up wih he depleion o exisingconvenional oil.

Tis poses a massive challenge o nearly every dimension o modern lie,because wo acors make i impossible simply o replace peroleum wih some oherenergy source. Firs, nearly everyhing pu ino service over he las cenury o rene,ranspor, and use peroleum, rom auos and locomoives o gas saions and reneries,can only uncion wih peroleum or is producs. o use anoher energy source on hesame scale, rillions o dollars o inrasrucure will have o be replaced, requiring decadeso lead ime and he diversion o subsanial resources rom oher economic secors.

Tis presupposes ha some oher energy source can replace peroleum. Tesecond problem wih a smooh ransiion rom oil is ha ory years o inensive searchhave ailed o urn up any resource as abundan and inexpensive o exrac. Tis is aconroversial issue, and proponens have made sweeping claims or many resources,

wih he recen wildly inaed esimaes o shale gas reserves only he laes in a long

sring o enhusiasic saemens poorly suppored by ac. Te consensus o mos peakoil researchers backed by a growing body o evidence is ha no resource or combinaion

CommunityAction

Possibilities:

In the New Reality, the mission of CAPs may need to shiftfrom eliminating poverty to creating new understandingsand new forms of wealth in a contracting economy.

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o resources can replace peroleumon anyhing like he scale required.Furhermore, coal and naural

gashe oher wo ossil uels,which accoun or he lions shareo non-peroleum energy in heUnied Saesare no available inlimiless amouns. Tey are also

being depleed a a breakneck paceand ace geological limis o heir own in he decades ahead. Whaever else he uureholds, a new age o energy shorages is already on he way.

Tis is more han an energy issue or an economic problem because he sheermaerial abundance made possible by abundan ossil uels has reshaped our socieyrom op o botom, ueling liesyles mos o us ake or graned and very ew are

willing o relinquish. A sociey ha has made he privae auo racing down he openroad a core image o reedom, and ha oo oen reas he inefciency o is energy use,compared o oher indusrial naions, as a sign o naional superioriy, is poorlyequipped o deal wih he end o abundan energy and he unwelcome limis onpersonal auence and privilege ha will resul.

All his would be challenging enough i he peaking o global peroleumproducion were he only issue conroning America a he presen ime. I akes litlemore han a glance a newspaper headlines o show ha, unorunaely, his is ar romhe case. We have reaed many oher resources, noably waer and opsoil, as proigaelyas ossil uels.

Anoher, subler resourcehe abiliy o naural sysems o absorb he waseproducs o our echnologieshas also come under heavy srain, wih resuls ranging

rom diminished public healh o an increasingly unsable climae. Finally, and parly asa resul o hese rends, he economic sysem ha provides Americans wih a share,however inadequae, o he naions goods and services is lurching rom crisis o crisis,and runs a signican risk o breaking down alogeher in he years ahead.

A disproporionae share o he burdens imposed by hese inerwoven criseswill ineviably all on Americas poor-and he insiuions ha provide services o heunderprivileged will ace wrenching ransiions in he process. Mos people involved inhese insiuions, and indeed mos Americans, have assumed ha povery resuls roman inadequae disribuion o abundance, no any genuine shorall. During he age operoleum, his was a reasonable assumpion, bu he end o ha age renders i invalid.

Te work o social service agencies in he years ahead hus will have o shirom seeking a airer disribuion o abundance o he much harder ask o managing

scarciy. Te perspecives in his repor are mean o help urher his difcul buunavoidable shi.

a fairer

distributionof abundanceto the muchharder taskof managingscarcity.

from seeking"

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NATEHAGENSthe economy

Our economy is in rouble, and he elemens ha comprised is ormula or successare no longer presen.

For he pas 50 years, we as a naion have grown our deb levels more han we

grew gross domesic produc (GDP) in each and every year. Since 2008, he U.S.governmen, in response o social pressures, had o creae over weny percen oGDP ou o hin air (via large budge decis, he growh o he Federal ReserveBoard balance shee and massive governmen guaranees).

Now, wih scal simulus a dead end, cenral banks have wo choices: wachhe economy collapse o a sae ar worse han is pre quaniaive easing ouse in2009 or coninue o suppor he economy by using shor-lived moneary ricks. Teso-called "recovery" is unsusainable and comes a an unseen cos: an increasing risko our sovereign currency, he healh o which is vial o a uncioning sysem o rade,oupu and jobs.

Even wih a mounain o new deb, here has been no growh or real privaeGDP since 2003-2004 and only abou 0.7% average growh since 2000. Presumably,urher deerioraion in he economy, brough on by eiher high energy prices or hegovernmens inabiliy o orever remain lender o las resor, will swell he ranks o

boh he unemployed and impoverished. Already, a recen Harris poll esimaes ha34% o Americans have no reiremen savings and 27% have no personal savings. Anyurher deerioraion in he job marke will obviously worsen hese numbers.

Tough scary, i is ime o acknowledge ha he drivers o growh ha exisedor he pas wo o hree generaions o Americans cheap energy and cheap credi are unlikely o be available going orward. Credi creaion can bring consumpionorward rom he uure o he presen, bu cenral banks and governmens can neiherprin nor borrow inexpensive liquid uels or naural resources.

Tus i is quie likely ha we now ace he end o growh, somehing all o our

insiuions and assumpions are buil upon. In a world ha will have less each yearinsead o he more each year we have grown accusomed o, prior debs will no beable o be paid back, more jobs will be los and sandards o living will drop. Tis NewRealiy will no only have severe implicaions or low-income people bu will increasehe low-income percenage o our populaion, possibly signicanly.

Finally, addiional risks beyond unemploymen and recessionexis. I and when some ype o global currency dislocaion occursdue o deb overshoo, inernaional rade, and wih i ourcomplex jus-in-ime supply chains, may be disruped.Given his rajecory, i may become very imporano reinven locally and regionally sourced goodsand services delivery sysems o mee basic needs

or people in all income and wealh demographics.

CommunityAction

Possibilities:CAPs could help create opportunities for low income familiesto become less dependent on money and traditional jobs bymeeting more of their basic needs through other means.

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DMITRY

ORLOV

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employment

Pu a poliician beore a microphone, and beore long you will hear he word jobsmany imes: job creaion, suppor or small businesses ha creae jobs, job raining, jobs,

jobs, jobs.

Bu careul analysis shows ha since he 2008 nancial crisis, governmeninvesmen in job creaion has added more o he naional deb han i has o he grossdomesic produc. Tis invesmen is an economic ne negaive.

Job creaion has been, and coninues o be, oo anemic o keep up wih popula-ion growh, making i an unlikely way o improve socieys well-being. o he conrary,our moderae job creaion and increase in economic aciviy, o dae, have srained ourdepleing resource base, driving up energy, commodiy and ood prices o record levelsand urher sressing a populaion whose wages have remained sagnan or generaions.

Plus, he ew jobs ha are being creaed are mosly service jobs, while manuac-uring jobs coninue o be expored. Alhough economic heory has i ha service jobscreae value jus as manuacuring jobs do, service jobs really creae deb, which allowshe counries wih manuacuring and expor-driven economies o accumulae largenancial surpluses a our expense.

Bu people need money o mee heir basic needs, and he only wo legal wayso ge money are rom a job or public assisance.

I we dispense wih he ired old jobs, jobs, jobs song-and-dance as ineecuala bes, harmul a wors, wha is le ha enables people o mee heir basic needs? Tesimple and direc answer is: Work. Tere may no be jobs, bu here is always work. Techallenge is o enable unemployed people o do good work o help heir communiy and,in urn, hemselves.

Soluions o his challenge are unlikely o occur o someone unable o seebeyond ree marke ideology. However, i is well-known ha markes ail when keyresources become scarce, which is our curren siuaion. In such imes, markes develop

pernicious characerisics, such as hoarding and proeering hrough speculaion, haoen cause governmens o sep in and insiue raioning programs.Bu here was lie beore markes, and here will be lie aer markes, hanks o

social insiuions ha pre-dae marke sysems by housands o years and have demon-sraed ar greaer resilience during imes o scarciy.

Te mos imporan is he gi economy, cenered around he polach, in whichan individuals value is measured no by wha he or she has bu by how much he or shegives away in presens.

Tis muual suppor hrough reciprocal gi-giving has long exised in commu-niies around he world. Gi-giving can parially overlap wih barer arrangemens andeven evolve ino local currency sysems, providing nancial represenaion or a sociey'ssock in rade o muual avors.

o succeed, hese endeavors mus build upon exising culural paterns o gi-giving and muual aid. Religiously sancioned paterns o almsgiving and chariy ound

in Chrisianiy, Islam and oherreligions can be used o expand hescope o non-commercial aciviy.In urn, hey reduce reliance oncommercialized, marke-based

relaionships, making i possible ormore people o survive wihou a job.

not be jobs,but thereis alwayswork."

There may

Examples include: free clinics, tool libraries, skill and laborexchanges, bicycle transportation and barter arrangements.

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KEN

METERfoodsystems

Te New Realiy is being sysemaically creaed by he prevailing Unied Saes oodsysem, which has creaed povery or generaions, especially in rural communiiesha, ironically, generae mos primary ood commodiies and considerable new wealh.

Te ood sysem is only he mos visible channel hrough which resourcesare being drained rom low-income communiies, resources ha include youh, rawmaerials, money, social capial and echnical capaciy. Tis exracion is endemic ohe enire economy. Communiy Acion Agencies could work o help reverse his.

Our ood sysem is ounded on he availabiliy o cheap energy. As oilbecomes boh expensive and rare, low-income people will lose access o ood, sincehey have litle marke power. One way o counerac his is o creae communiy-

based ood sysems ha run on locally-produced green energy, which will give localood a compeiive advanage over ossil uel inensive convenional ood sysems inimes o scarciy.

Ulimaely, a complex local ood inrasrucure needs o be buil ha includescommuniy kichens (which have been orming or a leas 15 years), roo cellars,

warehousing/reezer/cooler space, local ood disribuion channels and solid knowl-edge bases ha make each local communiy he bes daa source or is own oodsupply and needs. Each o hese eors mus engage low-income people producivelyo be ruly successul.

Anoher impac o he New Realiy will be ha he wealhy will hoard capialeven more ercely. Tis can be couneraced by building regional invesmen undsha engage low-income people in creaing and invesing in a local vision, and harecycles ineres paymens back ino urher work ha benes he locale. Non-cashconribuions, barering and creaing socieal wealh based on ood producion and

voluneer work also will become criical survival echniques.A naional arm sysem also needs o be creaed o grow new armers who

will, in urn, grow ood direcly as an alernaive o he currenly prevailing sysemwhich primarily raises raw maerials or indusrial processing.

CommunityAction

Possibilities:CAPs could provide tangible supports for backyard andcommunity gardens, like tillage and compost services,providing open-pollinated seed varieties, and gardeningmentors. CAPs could also organize farmers markets,cooking clubs, and arranging for use of commercial andcommunal cooking and dining facilities.

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SHARON

ASTYKhealth care

Te good news (i one can call i ha)abou he healh care crisis is ha hesraegies we can use o adap o a lower

energy, less resource-inensive socieywill serve a huge proporion o heUnied Saes populaion.

Te ac ha our healh care sysemis in crisis may be a good hing because,unlike oher sysems ha work well ormos people mos o he ime, mos o usrecognize ha he healh care sysem hasailed no jus he poor bu us all.

We can learn rom hose socieiesand culures ha mainain low-inpu,low-cos healh care sysems while also

achieving low inan moraliy raes (Cubas rae, or example, is lower han he U.S.urban rae), low maernal moraliy raes, lie spans equivalen o he Unied Saesand vasly lower healh care coss. (Te average Cuban spends under $300 annuallyor care; residens o Indias sae o Kerala spend even less.)

By learning rom hese oher socieies and culures, we migh be able ocreae a shadow sysem in he Unied Saes ha benes people who have no ared

well under our curren sysem. Poor counies in pars o he Unied Saes are alreadyseeing declines in lie expecancy.

People living in Cuba, Kerala and American Amish communiies who,compared o mos Americans, use vasly less healh care bu have comparable inanmoraliy raes and adul lie expecancies bene rom healh care pracices ha he

Unied Saes could draw upon. Tese include:crisis and providing basic suppors such as blood pressure checks.

a rs line o deense, raher han he immediae use o medicines.

hospial birh.)

ha can cause much suering.Tese pracices could help produce a healh care sysem ha keeps people

alive and well, a vasly lower cos. We should begin his work by replacing alk o

healh insurance which has litle or nohing o do wih acual healh and medicalcare wih he more correc erm healh care, which reers o he lieral careresuling rom human inervenion, common sense and good communiy suppor.

CAPs could organize, broker or coordinate basic healthcare and wellness programs and services in walkable urbanneighborhoods and in small rural towns and villages.


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PETER

KILDE

For Poor America, and indeed or all Americans, he New Realiy will have a dramaicimpac on housing. While much is unknown abou how he New Realiy will unoldin he monhs and years ahead, he ransiion rom abundance o scarciy and he

desrucion o capial appear all bu cerain.Te scarciy o capial will severely curail new consrucion o any kind.

When combined wih a ederal governmen ha is oo bound by deb o undanyhing beyond wha i deems absolue necessiy, he prospecs or new aordablehousing developmen, however green and inelligenly designed, are very bleak. Teuure o housing is really abou he uure o exising housing and exising srucuresha could be re-purposed as housing.

Wih he vas majoriy o Americas housing sock consruced during he age o cheapossil uels and ample building maerials, a undamenal quesion arises: Can housing

buil in a period o abundance be viable in a ime o scarciy?So a useul way o approach he issue o housing in he coming years is oevaluae exising housing srucures using crieria ha reec he New Realiy. Tismeans examining, on a srucure-by-srucure basis, i an exising housing srucure

would sill be viable:

enly or no available?

oher necessiies no immediaely accessible?

housing

CommunityAction

Possibilities:CAPs could create centers for information, training, andpooling resources in order to identify, assess and rehabneighborhood and community housing and potential housingstructures to meet the requirements of the New Reality.

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"if you want to

see the housingof tomorrow,all you haveto do is lookaround".

13

Mos housing in America oday would ail his es, especially urban, high-risehousing projecs.

Anoher housing alernaive, however, is he adapive re-use o idled pos-

indusrial commercial srucures. Many acories and oher commercial spaces will beempy and available as he economy conracs, and many o hese srucures are

well-buil and suiable or adapaion as housing.So he nex sep in he evaluaion process would be o deermine i a specic

srucure could be made viable or housing using exising resources. (Many o heseresources are currenly available and aordable, bu hey will be much harder oacquire a he very ime hey will become increasingly necessary and in much greaerdemand. Tis is good example o he Cach 22 ha appears in many discussionsabou preparing or he New Realiy.)

Oher imporan quesions o ask when evaluaing poenial housing srucuresinclude:

wih passive or locally sourced energy and low-ech building modicaions usingre-cycled and locally sourced building maerials?

skilled or unskilled labor or rained voluneers?

o services, or is he srucure near aciliies which could serve ha purpose?

limied ransi, producive land or growing ood and uel?

hurricanes, hailsorms and blizzards already upon us as a resul o global warming-

induced climae change?

Clearly, he New Realiy poses unprecedened challenges or housing increasingnumbers o poor Americans. Noneheless, Communiy Acions exensive experiencein weaherizaion and housing rehab could be an essenial asse in evaluaing andmodiying homes so hey work in he world o he New Realiy.

Even larger and more challenging quesions will arise as we are required oreconsider how many people can inhabi a ciy in his new world surely a grea dealewer han he number who dwell in many ciies oday. Wha happens when weexceed ha number? We may need o consider he housing needs o masses o ormerurban dwellers who migrae ou o our ciies o re-populae arms and small ownsnear producive armland, as has happened many imes in hisory.


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DMITRY

ORLOVsecurity

Tis may be an accurae characerizaion in some paricularly disressed places, bu iis no, so ar, in he Unied Saes. Bu even in he Unied Saes, he police have auile, hankless mission. Tey mus proec propery righs even when hose righs

conic wih he populaions righ o decen living condiions. As a resul, people areorced o live on he srees while many residenial properies sand vacan.

Police in he Unied Saes also mus enorce laws agains illegal drugs in hemos drug- addiced counry in he world ouside o kha-chewing Somalia and

Yemen. Absen an eecive eor o make peoples lives more ullling and meaning-ul, his crackdown on drugs is uile.

o op i o, given he sae o municipal nances around he Unied Saes,police are in a job ha can no only be very dangerous bu a dead-end job. I may noeven lead o a comorable reiremen, given he ongoing looing o ciy employeesreiremen unds by desperae legislaures. In many communiies around he UniedSaes, police are now an endangered species.

I he police become he enemy and hen disappear, communiy-basedsecuriy mus ll he vacuum. For example, in Eas Boson, a predominanly Lainoneighborhood, he neighborhoods mosly Irish and Arican- American police ofcersare reaed wih cauion and avoided. When here is rouble, police are rarely called.Friendly and asserive Laino men unconneced o he police show up and quielysetle hings. Having lived in Eas Boson, I can say ha i is a sae, riendly, relaxedneighborhood. Bu he ension level does rise whenever he police are around.

A a ime when here is litle money or large-scale iniiaives o improvesecuriy wih he excepion o high-prole ani-errorism boondoggles commu-niy securiy will improve only when people in neighborhoods look ou or eachoher. Voicing vague grand noions o public saey will no make i happen, nor will arenewed emphasis on law enorcemen or crime prevenion.

Insead, an eor should be made o esablish and deend communiysandards ha miigae agains homelessness, hunger, exploiaion and abuse whilesupporing every persons righ o a sae, dignied, ullling exisence regardless oeconomic circumsances.

Boh communiies ha have long been poor and communiies ha were onceprosperous are now awash wih unemployed or underemployed men and women,including discharged veerans. Tese residens are one resource ha communiies haveo improve securiy. Tey can be excluded, or alleged economic reasons, or insiu-ionalized, eiher as prison wardens or as prisoners. Tis will lead o disaser.

Or hey can be given a meaningul role o play, looking ou or and proecinghose around hem. Doing his, one neighborhood, one communiy a a ime, canlead o improved securiy even as he larger economic and poliical environmen

coninues o deeriorae.

As he global economic sysemconinues o unravel in one placeaer anoher, aecing more peopleevery day, i ails o provide basicnecessiies. One o hese necessi-

ies is securiy. Unorunaely, whaauhoriies end o view as securiy,he populaion increasingly viewsas oppression. In counry aercounry, rom Russia o Egyp oSyria, he populaion begins o viewhe police as he enemy.

CAPs could organize, broker, coordinate, or facilitate thetraining of neighborhood and community-based securityservices.

CommunityAction

Possibilities:

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15

In pracical erms, educaion is a cachall erm ha a culure uses o describe hebreadh and deph o is ormal and inormal conveyance o inormaion, knowledgeand skills rom one generaion o he nex, regardless o wheher his conveyance is

viewed in a scienic, echnological, economic and/or socio-poliical conex.While amily, religious, poliical, and oher insiuionalized sysems are also

criical educaional sources, ormal educaion (boh public and privae) is he sysemby which one generaion also passes o is ospring he values, principles, and pracicesor ehics and moraliy, civiliy, compeiiveness, and cooperaion, i no parioism.

In he ace o he New Realiy, educaion, like all oher culural insiuionswill change in very dramaic ways. Finding hemselves o be increasingly irrelevan ohe subsisence issues o he day and par o he problem raher han par o hesoluion, ormal educaion sysems will mos likely move rom a cenralized o adecenralized and ragmened exisence a bes, no longer capable o being suppored

by a collapsed moneary sysem. I i survives in any orm, i will also move rom aglobal o localized, place-based sense o conex and relevance.

Consisen wih radiional American values o sel-sufciency,sel-deerminaion, sel-reliance, innovaion, enrepreneurship and responsibiliy orsel and communiy, he educaion sysem, like all oher communiy-based sysemssuch as agriculure, will become highly innovaive, organic and dynamic.

Te rs educaional prioriy will be o convey susainabiliy-based skills orsubsisence in energy, ood, waer, sheler, clohing, ransporaion, healh care, saeyand securiy, and communicaion. In he sruggle or survival wih an ever-hopeuleye oward improving he qualiy o lie, secondary atenion likely will be paid o hears and humaniies, especially in he realm o adul educaion.

Rural versus urban educaional sysems will be as unique o he geo-poliicalconex o place and circumsance as all oher essenial rameworks. Te educaion o

children and young aduls will mos likely be home-based and/or provided in smallmuli-amily, neighborhood or village locaions. Larger K-12 setings, combinedwih adul educaion setings migh be possible in more secure and vibran communi-ies, (especially hose in warmer climaes). Wheher hey will be religiously orspiriually based is ye o be seen.

Higher educaion as we currenly know i migh survive in some pockes ourbanized exisence where climae, wealh, and human capaciy allow such aninsiuion o reurn o i roos o purpose (ha o he uncensored pursui o ruh),

bu i would likely cease o exis in any orm and scale currenly amiliar, especially inerms o large, ossil uel dependen research universiies. Small privae schools wih asrong hisory o subsisence-based programming, operaion, and suden work-sudysysems similar o he likes o Berea College migh have a chance.

In he bes o educaional oucomes, a Communiy Economic Laboraory(CEL) described by Richard Heinberg (see p. 19) as a local muli-uncion cener

education

ha helps people impaced by hardimes provides he germ o creaecenralized sies ha combinelocalized economic enerpriseceners wih he muli-age educaionsysem, libraries and New Realiy

archives, especially or vocaionalcra and rades.One would hope and

expec ha a CEL also would oseran appreciaion or he educaionaland economic value o ar, music,lieraure, and heaer, no omenion classical philosophy andinerpreaion. Tis, in urn, couldgenerae a renewed sense o personaland communiy purpose, solidariy,and he discovery o a culural

pah ha leads o a renewal o hehuman experimen.

KELLY

CAPs could assist local populations with developing highlylocalized multi-purpose Community Economic Laboratories(CELs) that could also integrate kindergarten through adulteducational programming with all other community subsis-tence functions.

CAIN


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DAVID

REIDPETERKILDE

transportation

Te grealy reduced availabiliy o cheap liquid uels or ransporaion will haveproound eecs no likely o be ose by alernaive energy sources in he comingdecades. (Te global energy producion rom ossil uel sources yields muliple imes

more useable energy han any known heoreical subsiues. Te world in 2008 usedmuliples o beween 20 and 100 imes more energy rom ossil uels han rom allcurren known renewable energy sources combined. Abou hal o his ossil energy isused as liquid ransporaion uels).

So we can expec ha his will resul in a lo less moving abou o people andmaerials. As James Howard Kunsler pu i succincly in his 2005 book Te LongEmergency, Our lives will become prooundly and inensely local. Te ranspora-ion available will be very energy efcien, relaively low-ech, reliable, easy o repairand will avor renewable energy sources.

For personal and amily ransporaion by land, likely opions will includebicycles, bicycle-derived axis and cargo haulers, and, wih some luck, elecricbicycles, which could use solar batery charging on a scale ha avoids he expense and

resource requiremens o huge solar phoovolaic (PV) arrays.A very unlikely candidae or uure land ransporaion will be he personal

auomobile, a leas as we know i in America oday. Again, wih some luck, very simpleand efcien vehicles may coninue o have some use, bu mosly or ransporingessenial services and perhaps a ew relaively auen members o pos-indusrial sociey.

Te democraizaion o ranspor produced by he personal auomobile willrecede, necessiaing managemen o ransporaion inequaliy. Alhough eecive inmanaging supply and demand, marke-based soluions may urher widen he wealhgap and bring abou he reurn o he ransporaion underclass (or example via aresumpion o hird class ravel).

Oher likely soluions such as uel raioning may avoid conribuing o

ransporaion inequaliy bu will creae oher problems such as supply shorages halead o governmen resenmen and he creaion o uel black markes.Urban areas may also see mass ransi powered by, wind, diesel or hydro-

generaed elecriciy, such as buses and even ligh rail or sreecars. Tis will largelydepend upon he level o complexiy and echnology ha he diminished resource

base can suppor, which is difcul o condenly calculae. Furhermore, economiceedback loops rom negaive global energy growh will make new ransporaioninrasrucure developmen disappoiningly inadequae and underunded. (Hisoryand modern indusrial business show ha experimenaion and developmen undingis always he rs cu in a resource or economic crisis. As our modern cheap ueldependen jus-in-ime (JI) supply chains become less reliable indusrial supply lines

will become harder o mainain, his pus even more pressure on anyhing no ried

and esed. Te ramicaions o he Japan naural disaser give a model or how ourinerconneced sysem uncions very poorly in anyhing oher han ideal condiions).

At least in the early stages of the New Reality, CAPs couldorganize shared vehicle or jitney (informal taxi) services,or pool resources for bussing folks to nearby productiveagricultural areas or farmers markets.

CommunityAction

Possibilities:

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17

"Our lives willbecome profoundlyand intensely local."

-James Howard Kunsler

A more orderly and raional ransiion o he New Realiy may include he re-buildingo Americas once-grea and exensive railroads, hough no as he high-speed rail weanaicize abou oday. Peak oil is no End oil, so some diesel and oher uels will

likely be available or high prioriy uses. Already efcien and abundan diesel-elecriclocomoives may well be deemed such a prioriy. Limied elecriciy may also bereserved or moving heavy reigh raher han people. Our JI shopping and manu-acuring inrasrucure ha relies on ull auo power on land will need more localdisribuion and warehousing.

Rural and some urban areas also could use dra and riding animals orransporaion purposes. Tis has he added advanage o providing erilizer or localgarden and greenhouse producion, alhough animals also consume a air amoun olocal ood-growing capaciy.

Meanwhile, he rivers, canals, Grea Lakes and seaboard harbors ha played avial role in he Unied Saes largely pre-peroleum economies o he 18h and early19h cenuries can be expeced o become vial once again. Much o his waer

ransporaion will use advanced sailing echnology, which has progressed overhousands o years. As or air ransporaion, i will be used exclusively by he miliaryand he very wealhy. I may cease enirely in he years ahead.

So, ransporaion in he New Realiy will no be a hrowback o somehisorical preceden. I will eaure very pracical and pragmaic applicaions o old

and new echnologies. In grea conras o odaysmarkeing o mos American cars, rucks, boas andair ravel as producs o be purchased or un and

saus, ransporaion will be serious businessduring he coming ime o scarciy.

CAPs could also help to bring services and microenterprisesto within walkable distances of residential neighborhoods.


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MEGAN

BACHMANcommunityculture,

communication& cohesion

Communiy will be vial in he New Realiy. As ood and energy prices rise,radiional jobs become scarce, and money dries up, people will rely more on eachoher, in heir communiies, o provide heir essenial needs. Cooperaive arrangemens

or growing ood, producing energy and sharing sheler as well as ransporaion willdevelop by necessiy in urban neighborhoods and small owns across he counry.

Cheap energy, overly pleniul credi, high mobiliy and he commercializa-ion o human relaionships have dismanled many inormal social srucures incommuniies and economic relaionships among local people. Cobblers, armers,

buchers and a hos o oher jobs once prolieraed in srong local economies. odayinsead, cheap goods ood ino our owns and people work or disan corporaions.

Social relaionships also have suered. Neighbors oen don know oneanoher and isolaion, alienaion and selshness is common. Many people value

wealh accumulaion over srong relaionships. Bu he values o communiy ha areransmited hrough inerdependen living values including cooperaion, moderaion,rugaliy, chariy, muual aid, condence, rus, couresy, inegriy and loyaly will

prove essenial in helping us respond o he coming challenges.Communiy Acion Agencies could help people mee heir neighbors and

esablish meaningul relaionships by sponsoring celebraions and social aciviies,aciliaing local work exchanges, and promoing economic localizaion. Venures suchas communiy-suppored agriculure, communiy-owned renewable energy sysemsand small business incubaors should be suppored. CAP agencies could also work odecrease racial and culural ensions while increasing olerance among communiymembers by oering educaion programs on discriminaion.

By srenghening relaionships wihin heir communiy now, beore he worso he crisis occurs, neighbors will be beter prepared or he greaer inerdependencerequired in he uure. As a resul, when imes ge ough, people will be less likely o

compee or resources bu insead will share and conserve heir local resources and akecare o one anohers basic needs. Building his social capial, especially in PoorAmerica, is criical so ha, in he words o Joanna Macy, a proponen o deep ecologyenvironmenalism, when hings ge hard, we won, in ear, urn on each oher.

CommunityAction

Possibilities:CAPs could also help facilitate communication within andbetween communities by producing neighborhood newspapersor setting up shortwave radio networks if the Internetproves unsustainable.

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RICHARD

HEINBERG

19

one vision for

communityaction in thenew reality

In especially hard imes such as he naion has begun experiencing large numberso individuals and amilies lose heir jobs and incomes and, in urn, access o goods andservices ha he marke economy ormerly provided. Meanwhile, ax-sarved govern-

mens are hard pressed o sep in and make services available o rapidly expandingrolls o unemployed.A such a ime, i could be helpul o explore new and innovaive ways o

osering sel-sufciency hrough he coordinaion o a variey o cooperaive,non-pro, marke-based and governmen-led venures ha spring rom, and areadaped o, unique local condiions.

Te Communiy Economic Laboraory (CEL), a local muli-uncion cenerha helps people impaced by hard imes, would do his by oering a variey oservices, as well as opporuniies or sel-improvemen, learning, enerprise incubaionand communiy involvemen including:

available a low-cos (or on a labor-barer basis) o small-scale local growers.

as communal beds o grow produce or he soup kichen.

cooking and yoga.

he communiy. Work can be compensaed monearily or hrough barer.

including compos and scrap as well as re-manuacured or re-usable producs.

lo he JAK bank in Sweden, a cooperaive, member-owned nancial insiuion).

and bicycle co-ops as well as a public ransi hub.

roo over heir head, including renals and opporuniies or legal organizedsquating in oreclosed properies, as well as various orms o space-sharing.

or geting by in he new economy, including gardening, healh mainenance,making do wih less, energy conservaion and weaher-sripping.


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Megan BachmanTe Power of Communiy: HowCuba Survived Peak Oil

Kelly D. Cain, PhD

John W. Edwards, Jr.

John Michael Greer

Te Long Descen: A User's Guide o he End of he Indusrial Age,Te EcoechnicFuure: Envisioning a Pos-Peak World,Te Wealh of Naure: Economics as ToughSurvival MateredNate Hagens, PhDRichard HeinbergBlackou: Coal, Climae, and he Las

Energy CrisisPeak Everyhing: Waking Up o he Cenury of DeclinesTe Pary's Over: Oil, War & he Fae of Indusrial SocieiesTe

End of Growh.

Peter Kilde

Donald W. Mathis

ASPENWYE RIVER

MEETINGPARTICIPANTS

John R.EhrmannPh.D.

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Ken Meter

Dmitry OrlovReinvening Collapse: Te SovieExample and American Prospecs

David Reid

Dave RoomDelphia Shanks

Janet Topolsky


24/24

2011 Communiy Acion Parnership

phone: 202.265.7546 ax: 202.265.8850

www.communiyacionparnership.com

Communiy Acion Parnership

1140 Connecicu Avenue, NW

Suie 1210 Washingon, DC 20036

Facing the New Reality

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