FAA Center of Excellence Emerging Trends in Air …acgsc.org/Meetings/Meeting_96/Subcommitte...
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1CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCHCENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH
Education, Analysis and Research for the Next FrontierEducation, Analysis and Research for the Next Frontier
A member of
FAA Center of Excellence
Emerging Trends in Air Transportation:
Challenges & Opportunities for Guidance & Control Research
Lance Sherry (Ph.D.)George Donohue (Ph.D.)
Bengi Mezhepoglu, Danyi Wang, Jonathan Drexler (Ph.D. Candidates)
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Acknowledgements
• Dave Knorr, Anne Yablonski, Tony Dziepak (FAA)
• Terry Thompson (Metron Aviation)• Dan Goldner (Ventana Systems)• JP Clarke (MIT), Mike Ball (UMd), Toni
Trani (VT), Mark Hansen (UC-Berkley)• David Schaar (GMU)• C.H. Chen, Don Gross Sasha Klein, John
Shortle (GMU)
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CENTER FOR CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
RESEARCHRESEARCHEducation, Research & Analysis for the Next FrontierEducation, Research & Analysis for the Next Frontier
School of Information Technology & Engineering
STRATEGIC PLANNING/
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
• Industry Dynamical System Models
••Cost/Benefit Analysis
• Airline Revenue Management
• Airline IT/Enterprise Architecture Design
AIRPORT & AIRSPACE SIMULATION
• Airport & Airspace System Performance Analysis
•Airspace Design
•Stochastic Analysis & Simulation
•
•Passenger & Baggage Flow Simulations•Airport Security
SYSTEM/SAFETY ANALYSIS
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment
• Safety Monitoring System Design
• Probabilistic Wake Vortex Models
An FAA Center of Excellence
EDUCATION
•Degree programs (Ph.D., M.Sc., B.Sc.) with concentrations and courses in Air Transportation.
•Continuing Education
•Seminars & Short-courses
•Co-ops with Industry Partners
Systems Engineering and Operations
Research Department
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Summary• U.S. Domestic Air Transportation System (ATS)
is an amazing success story over last century– Economic engine of U.S. economy
• Sustainability of growth in question– Demand approaching Capacity of sub-systems
(delays, cancellations, excess costs, salaries, staffing)
– Scarce resource not being managed• Dynamical System Model of ATS demonstrates
that Technology alone, cannot solve problem– Systemic industry structure must be modified to
included close-loop feedback to:• Manage fluctuations in demand in efficient manner• Incentivize adaptation and innovation
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Organization
1. Air Transportation System (ATS)– Success and Sustainability?
2. Analysis of ATS• Dynamical System Model
3. Opportunities for Research
6CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCHCENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH
Education, Analysis and Research for the Next FrontierEducation, Analysis and Research for the Next Frontier
A member of
FAA Center of Excellence
Air Transportation System
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Air Transportation & Economy• Air Transportation is a major determinant of the
nations economic health– Growth in U.S. GDP corresponds to growth in air
transportation• Air Transportation is an “intermediate good”
• Air transportation used to achieve other purpose• Direct Contributions:
– Air transportation directly contributes 1-2% to GDP– Employment, Airport economies
• Indirect Contributions: – supply chain, equipment suppliers
• Induced Contributions:– Hotels, rental cars, …
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Success Story – CapacityATS Capacity
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Years
Domestic Enplanements Domestic RPMs (Millions) Domestic ASMs (Millions)
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Success Story - Airfares
Source: ATA (2005) Yield = Before Tax Revenue per Seat-Mile
Domestic Real Yield (1978 Cents)
05
101520253035404550
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
1978
Cen
ts
Jets
Widebodies
Hub-&-Spoke
Yield Mgmt
Internet, LCCs
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Sustainability ?1. Airline Profit/Loss Cycles
– Finding economic equilibrium?2. Eroding access from small communities
– Essential Air Service subsidies growing?3. Congestion at hubs:
– delays and cancellations– Go-arounds/Wake Vortex encounters
4. Environmental issues (emmissions, noise)5. Airport & Airspace Trust Fund eroding6. Airport & Airspace innovation cycle is dormant7. ATC innovation cycle is dormant
– Modernization efforts effectively stalled8. ATC labor issues (salary, staffing)
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Sustainability ? – Airline FinancesAirline Finances
-20,000,000
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
Cum
Net
Pro
ft/L
oss
& O
pera
ting
Prof
t ($)
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
Ann
ual R
even
ues
Cum Net Profit/Loss Annual Operating Profit ($K) Operating Revenues ($K)
Source: ATA (2005) Symptom, not a cause
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Sustainability ? - CongestionT OTA L SC HED U LED OPER A TION S A N D C U R R EN T OPT IM U M R A TE B OU N D A R IES
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Schedule Facility Est. M odel Est.
• 1 Arrival Runway• 1 Departure Runway• 45 Arrivals/Hr (Max)• 80 Seconds Between Arrivals• 11.3 minute Average Delay• 77 Delays/1000 Operations• 40 min./Delay
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Departures per Hour
Arriv
als
per H
our
ASPM - April 2000 - Instrument ApproachesASPM - October 2000 - Instrument ApproachesCalculated IMC CapacityReduced Rate (LGA)
32,32
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Sustainability ? – A&ATF
Source: ATA (2005) Shift to RJs, results in more ATC operations, A&TFless revenue
Airport & Airway Trust Fund
-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$M
Expenses Income Balance Ticket Tax Income
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Sustainability ? – ATC Labor
ATSC Hiring
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
# AT
SC
Shortfall in Certified ATCS
ATSC in Excess of
Target Level of Staffing on
Payroll
# Candidate + Developmental + Certified ATCS on Payroll
# Certified ATCS
FAA-NATCA Target Staffing Level
# Developmental ATCS#ATCS Attrition
= #ATCS Hired
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Sustainability ?
• Throwing $ and Technologies at the problem does not appear to be solving the problem
• What is the systemic structure of the industry?– Can this knowledge explain behavior?– Can this knowledge focus R&D?
16CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCHCENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH
Education, Analysis and Research for the Next FrontierEducation, Analysis and Research for the Next Frontier
A member of
FAA Center of Excellence
Analysis
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Dynamical System Models
Control Law:Price Setting
Plant: Consumer Demand
Value of Substitute Service/Product
Supply of Service/Product
+ +
--
Demand for Service Product
Plant exhibits non-linear dynamics (price elasticity)
Market ForcesMarket Forces
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Social Factors
Revenue Passenger Miles
Price of Substitute forms of transportation
GDP
Latent Demand by Pax & Cargo for Air
Transportation
Load Factor
Relative Value of Air Transportation Service
Airfares
Network Integrity
Airport & Airspace Capacity (Slots)
Price of Substitute forms of Airports & Airspace
Inter-airline competition
Latent Demand by Airlines for Airports &
Airspace Slots
Airports & Airspace Utilization (Flights/Airport &
Airspace)
Relative Value of Air Airports & Airspace
Service
Usage fees
Available Seat Miles (O/D pairs, Frequency,
Size of Aircraft)
Slots
Congestion, Delays, Cancellations
Precursors to incidents/ accidents
Accidents
Disproportionate media coverage
Pax & Cargo Demand Regulated by
Distorted Market-based Mechanism (-
R/B)
Demand for Airports & Airspace NOT Regulated by Any Mechanism (-R)
Airline operating costs
Latent Demand by FAA-ATO for Air Traffic Control Resources
Productivity (Slots/Resource)
Price of Substitute forms Air Traffic Control
Relative Value of Air Traffic ControlDemand for Airport &
Airspace Resources NOT Regulated by Any Mechanism (-R)
Capacity of Air Traffic Control Resource
Passenger & Cargo
Airline Service(Origin/Destination Pairs, Frequency, Size of Aircraft)
Airspace & Airports (Navigational Capabilities, Airways, Cruise Flight Levels, Departure/Arrival Runway Slots, Gates)
Air Traffic Management & Control Resources(Arrival/Departure Rates, Separation, VFR Rates in IFR, …)
Bankruptcy Protection
Airline Business Models
Price of Air Traffic Control Resource
FAA-NATCA Contract
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Air Transportation System• Air Transportation System is provided by layers of
networks:1. Passengers & Cargo
• Purchase tickets for air transportation based on relative merit over other forms of transportation
• Passenger & cargo transportation drives modern economy2. Airlines
• Provide capacity for air transportation of passengers by providing Scheduled Flights (routes, frequency and aircraft)
3. Airspace & Airports• Provide capacity for Airline Scheduled Flights through airways,
navigational aids, flightlevels, runways, gates, …etc.4. Air Traffic Management & Control
• Provide capacity for Airports and Airspace by managing and controlling traffic in the presence of weather using procedures,sensors
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Air Transportation System
• Passengers and Cargo rely on Airlines to provide air transportation
• Airlines rely on Airspace & Airports to provide routes, runways, gates
• Airspace & Airports rely on Air Traffic Management & Control to maximize their use in the presence of weather and other variables
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(1) Consumers: Pax & Cargo• Air Transportation
advantageous over other modes:– speed, cost (grows with trip
length)• Demand exhibits Variability
– Seasonality, Day of week, Hour of day
– Income Elasticity (Engels Law)• As income rises, people
spend proportionately more on luxuries (and not on necessities)
– Price Elasticity• Sensitivity of demand to price • Tourist elasticity > Business
elasticityAIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Air Transportation Consumers:Passengers & Cargo
GDP, Social Factors, Value
Dem
and
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(2) Airlines• Air Transportation Service:
– Seats• Network of routes• Schedules on each route (i.e.
frequency of service)• Gauge of service (i.e. aircraft
size, fleet)• Subject to variability from:
– Pax & Cargo demand Prices of competing modes
– Prices determined by competition
– Supply Chain price (e.g. Fuel)– Technology (speed, costs of
operation)– Supply of resources (e.g.
gates, aircraft)
AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Air Transportation Consumers:Passengers & Cargo
GDP, Social Factors, Value
Dem
andSupp
ly
Air Transportation Service Providers:
Airlines
Competition, Slots,
Network Integrity,
Bankruptcy Rules,
Business Models,
Essential Air Service
Dem
and
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(2) Airlines
• Airline’s product– Undifferentiated– Perishable– Subject to shifts in demand (can be sudden)
• Airline’s marketplace– Subject to Ease-of-entry
• Existing airline into new O/D market– Tendency to Monopoly or Oligolpoly
• Tendency to gradual elimination of competitors• Airline economics
– Capital-intensive vs labor intensive• Larger, faster aircraft more capital intensive• High-debt/equity ratios
– Bad position during recessions• Sensitive to business cycles
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(2) Airlines
• Airlines largely decoupled from infrastructure– Exception: Hubbed operations highly dependent on
hub airport (geography, capacity)• Post-deregulation
– High degree of flexibility in network, frequency of service, airfares
• Hyper-competitive due to low barriers to entry– “Price-wars” good for consumers– Tends towards oligopoly on specific routes (hubs)
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(3) Airports & Airspace• Infrastructure Service Provider:
– Intersection with other modes of transportation at Origin/Destination
• Gates, runways, navigational services
– Routes and Crz FLs• SIDs, STARs, airways, …
• Safety critical– Operates in highly regulated
environment• Subject to variability from:
– Environment– Demographics– Weather
AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Air Transportation Consumers:Passengers & Cargo
GDP, Social Factors, Value
DS
Air Transportation Service Providers:
Airlines
Competition, Slots,
Network Integrity,
Bankruptcy Rules,
Business Models,
Essential Air Service
Infrastructure Service Providers:Airports and Airspace
Environment, Demographics
Dem
andSupp
ly
Dem
and
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(4) Air Traffic Management & Control
• Flow Service Provider:– Sequencing and separation in
Airspace & Airports• Coordinated by procedures• Performed manually today
• Involves:– Airline Operations Centers
(AOCs)– Traffic Flow Management
(TFM)– Centers, TRACONs, Towers
• Operational management of negative externalities– Congestion– accident prevention– Subject to variation due to
weather AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Air Transportation Consumers:Passengers & Cargo
GDP, Social Factors, Value
DS
Air Transportation Service Providers:
Airlines
Competition, Slots,
Network Integrity,
Bankruptcy Rules,
Business Models,
Essential Air Service
Infrastructure Service Providers:Airports and Airspace
Environment, Demographics
DS
Traffic Flow Service Providers:Air Traffic Control (TFM, AOCs,
ARTCCs, TRACONs, Towers)
Weather,Budgets,
Labor, Union Contract,
Technology
DS
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(4) Air Traffic Management & Control
• ATC operated at sector level– Sector is airspace controlled by ATC Specialist (ATCS)– Sector size determined by traffic demand and common routes
• Human operator ability to manage traffic (12 – 20 aircraft per 15 minutes)• Traffic Flow Management (TFM):
– Manages traffic flow at Center Level (10 – 20 sectors)– Maintain aircraft count within legal threshold of ATC human workload
and safe separation– Systematic forecast of traffic patterns that lead to overload prohibitive
(Menon, Sweriduk, Bilimoria, 2004; Robelin, Sun, Wu, Bayen, 2005)– Decision-making based on uncertain information
• Airline Operations Centers– Airlines choose TFM options to maximize own-company objective
function
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Plant Dynamics – Inverted Pendulum
• Changes in Pax demand – τ = Weeks to Months
• Changes in Airlines supply– Routes, Frequency, Guage
• τ = Weeks to 3 -6 Months– Increased Fleet
• τ = 3 years• Changes in A&A supply
– Sector changes• τ = 3 – 6 months
– Runways, gates, routes, CrzFLs
• τ = 10 – 30 years• Changes in ATM&C
– Staffing, Sectors– τ = 7 – 10 years AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Air Transportation Consumers:Passengers & Cargo
D
S
Infrastructure Service Providers:
Airports and Airspace
Air Transportation Service
Providers:Airlines
D
S
Traffic Flow Service Providers:Air Traffic Control (TFM, AOCs,
ARTCCs, TRACONs, Towers)
D
S
Equilibrium
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Closing-the-Loop
• Methods for balancing Demand and Supply for “Networked Industries “(Coase, 1988)1. Competitive mechanisms2. Market-based institutions
– Market equilibrium through pricing (rapid and efficient)– Automatically manages for scarce resources– Subject to market-failure through monopolies, oligolopolies
3. Private agreements4. Public regulation
– Market equilibrium through regulation (slow and inefficient)– Slow or no response to scarce resources– Subject to political consideration
5. Collaborative Decision Making– Voluntary (limited by collusion concerns)
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Methods for Balancing Demand/Supply
• Market-based mechanisms– Price of service set based on cost and
demand• When demand << capacity, price is based on cost• When demand > capacity, price is based on
demand for scarce resource– efficient (fast and equitable)– Must be protected against anti-competitive
forces that lead to monopolies/oligopolies
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Methods for Balancing Demand/Supply
• Public Regulation– Price of service set based on cost of service
• Excise Taxes • Airport & Airway Trust Fund
– Ticket Taxes– Fuel Taxes
• Airport– Landing fees, security fees
– Slow and inefficient (political)– Results in cross-subsidies– Emphasis on equity
• Does not account for scarce resources
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ExcessDemand
ExcessSupply
Air Transportation Consumers:
Passengers & Cargo
DemandSupply
Balancing Mechanism(airfares, subsidies)
Infrastructure Service
Providers:Airports and
Airspace
Traffic Flow Service Providers:
Air Traffic Control (TFM,
AOCs, ARTCCs, TRACONs,
Towers)DemandSupply
Balancing Mechanism(staffing, salaries, budgets)
Air Transportation
Service Providers:
Airlines
Demand
Balancing Mechanism
(landing fees, ticket tax, admin measures)
AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
GDP, Social Factors, Value
Competition, Slots, Network Integrity, Bankruptcy Rules, Business Models,
Essential Air Service
Weather, Environment
Budgets, Labor, Union Contract, Technology
Air Trans. Service Providers: Airlines
Supply
Infrastruct. Service Providers:
Airports & Airspace
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Closing-the-Loop in ATS(A) Pax/Cargo v. Airline Schedule
– Market-based: Airfare– Administrative: Essential Air Service Subsidies
(B) Airline Schedule v. Airports & Airspace– Market-based: Landing fees, Ticket Taxes, Fuel
Taxes• Does not adjust for scarce resources
– Administrative: Admin Measures (slots, uni-laterals), FAA F&E budget
(C) Airport & Airspace v. Air Traffic Management & Control– Administrative: Salaries, FAA Ops Budget
• Does not adjust for scarce resources
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(A) Pax & Cargo v. Airline Schedule
• Balancing mechanism - airfares• Airfares distorted by:
– Inter-airline competition for marketshare– Slot-ownership (use-it or lose-it)– Bankruptcy protection– Network integrity
• Cumulative profits over network (feeders)
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(B) Airline Schedules v. Airports & Airspace
• Airports & Airspace capacity limited only at congested network nodes/arcs (e.g. LGA, ORD)
• Airline demand for scheduled flights is NOT balanced with congested Airspace & Airport Capacity by any mechanism
• User-fees in the form of ticket-taxes, security taxes, and landing fees – intended to cover estimated costs only– do not take into account scarcity of resources– Set by political means– serve no purpose to regulate demand within the limits of capacity
• Administrative Measures– Airport capacity limits and slots
• Favor incumbent airlines
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(B) Airline Schedule v. Airports & Airspace
• Absence of “value” of “scarce” airspace & airport resources prevents application of commodity cycle– Airlines account for internal costs (not external)
• Problem: Property rights non-existent• Except Slot controlled airports (e.g. LGA, DCA)
– Rule dependent– Some secondary market trading– Inefficient (use-it or lose-it rules)
• Value can only be assessed by consumer of resource airlines– Requires market-place
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(C) Airspace & Airports v. ATM&C
• Airspace & Airports demand for Air Traffic Management and Control is NOT regulated by any mechanism
• Problems:– ATM&C Labor intensive process (ATCSs)
• Staffing level determined by FAA-ATCS Union contract (7 years)• Shifting ATCS personnel is problematic
– No signaling from Airlines or A&A– Political: Cross-subsidy of GA & Biz jets by Commercial– Absence of “value” of “slots” prevents application of commodity
cycle– Absence of cost of ATC operations for flight prevents application
of commodity cycle
38CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCHCENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH
Education, Analysis and Research for the Next FrontierEducation, Analysis and Research for the Next Frontier
A member of
FAA Center of Excellence
Opportunities & Challenges
39
Challenges for Sustainability• Systemic changes required
– Provide mechanisms (market-based or other) to balance demand and supply between each layer of network
1. Passenger Demand v. Airline (Seats)• Remove distortions in market-based mechanisms• Adaptive Control Laws = Revenue Management, Fleet
Management2. Airline Flight Schedules v. Airports & Airspace
– Provide mechanism to close-the-loop to manage scarce resources
– Schedule (and control) to departure/route/arrival slots– Collaborative Scheduling
3. Airports & Airspace v. ATC/AOC/TFM– Provide mechanism to close-the-loop to manage scarce
resources– Control to scheduled slots– Collaborative Decision Making
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G&C Opportunities (1)• Probabilistic Management of Airspace in
the Presence of Weather• Result: Increase Capacity of Airports &
Airspace• Concept of Operations:
– Plan traffic flows based on the probability of availability of airspace
– Keep options open until near last minute– Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) provides means to
equitable manage flow of traffic– Input to CDM “black/white” measures of availability of
airspace– Technology Transition Path
– Extension of existing CDM process
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G&C Opportunities (2)• Airborne Self-separation
– Enroute, arrivals, and approach/landing• Result: Increase productivity of Air Traffic Management
& Control• Concept of Operations:
– ATM sequences, Aircraft self-separate– All maneuvers
• Multi-vehicle “energy” management problem
• Technology Transition Path– Typically through Experimental Class GA– Not in this case– Must come through UAVs
» Simple case for swarming – lead-follow
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G&C Opportunities (3)• Contract-based ATC/Required Time of Arrival• Result: Increase productivity of Air Traffic
Management & Control• Concept of Operations:
– ATM sequences and sets RTA– Aircraft manage trajectory
• Technology Transition Path– Typically through Experimental Class GA– Not in this case– Must come through UAVs
» Simple case for swarming – lead-follow
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G&C Opportunities (4)• Wake Vortex Avoidance (and Encounter
Guidance)• Result: Increase productivity of Air Traffic
Management & Control• Concept of Operations:
– ATM sequences and sets RTA– Aircraft manage trajectory and self-separate
• Technology Transition Path– Typically through Experimental Class GA– UAVs not an option (too small, not jets)– DOD and/or Needs government program
Wake Vortex reduction through aerodynamics
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G&C Opportunities (5)
• Low Noise/Emission Guidance• Result: Increase Airport & Airspace
Capacity• Concept of Operations:
– Close-loop around noise and emissions• Technology Transition Path
– Typically through Experimental Class GA– UAVs not an option (too small, not jets)– DOD and/or Needs government program
45CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCHCENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH
Education, Analysis and Research for the Next FrontierEducation, Analysis and Research for the Next Frontier
A member of
FAA Center of Excellence
Thank youQuestions?
Lance Sherry - [email protected], 703-993-1711