Eye on Alberta - The Provincial Political Horserace
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Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever, without the prior wriHen consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.
Eye on AlbertaThe Provincial Political Horserace
December 2015
Marc Henry, President ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. [email protected] 587.774.2395
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
Research Methodology
• Study fielded via online research panel o Field dates: December 1 to 6, 2015 o Panel source: Voice of Alberta & Vision Critical
• n=1230
• Weighted to reflect gender, age and region of Alberta population according to Stats Canada
• This online survey utilizes a representative but non-random sample, therefore margin of error is not applicable. However, a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval.
• Accuracy of sub-samples of the data decline based on sample sizes
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
Regional Sample Sizes &�Margins of Error
Total Interviews (Unweighted)
(n)
Total Interviews
(Weighted) (n)
Margin of Error (Associated with a
probability sample of this size)
ALBERTA TOTAL
1230
1230
+/- 2.8
Calgary
419
412
+/- 4.8
Edmonton
349
375
+/- 5.3
North
132
159
+/- 8.5
Central
165
149
+/- 7.6
South
165
135
+/- 7.6
Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever, without the prior wriHen consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.
Alberta’s Political Landscape
December 2015
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
Provincial Political Landscape�-Bruising Fall Session Coming to a Close-
• New NDP Government having a rough ride in first full legislative session
o Big Spending, Big Deficit Budget o Climate Change Plan o Farm Workers Protection o Royalty Review Report yet to come…
• NDP support fallen sharply since the end of summer o Now trail Wildrose in province-wide popular vote,
down 9 points since September o Wildrose and PC support shows modest gains in
past 3 months
• NDP still dominate Edmonton and region, though support significantly eroded
• Wildrose hold significant edge in small urban and rural regions of the province
• Calgary is a statistical 3-way tie: Wildrose, NDP and PC support all within margin of error of one another
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
33%
29%
25%
8%
3%
2%
Provincial Political Horserace�-Decided Vote-
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?
% Decided Voters (n=1059)
Initial Undecided 18%
Some other party
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
Provincial Political Horserace�-THQ Tracking-
% Decided Vote
10%
14% 16% 16%
13% 15%
14% 14% 15% 15%
17%
13% 13% 14%
19%
26%
39% 41%
38%
32%
29%
34% 33%
35%
38% 39%
41%
38% 39%
38%
46%
41% 41% 40%
30%
20%
31%
27%
24%
30% 32%
33%
44%
36%
31%
26% 26% 26% 27%
28% 30%
19%
24% 26%
31%
36%
40%
25%
20%
28%
21% 23%
25%
10% 11%
12% 13%
14% 14% 14% 12%
14% 16%
14% 14% 12%
14% 14% 12%
9%
4% 5%
8% 8%
1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
4% 3%
4% 3% 3%
4% 3%
4% 5% 5%
4% 2%
5% 4%
3% 1%
3% 4% 4%
5%
2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
2% 2%
NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
37%
24%
21%
13%
1%
4%
Low High
31.5% 42.5%
18.5% 29.5%
15.5% 26.5%
7.5% 18.5%
- 6.5%
- 9.5%
Provincial Political Horserace�-Decided Vote-
% Decided Voters (n=313)
Some other party
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?
EDMONTON (CMA)
MARGIN OF ERROR (+/- 5.5%)
Initial Undecided 23%
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
Provincial Political Horserace�-Edmonton (CMA) Tracking-
% Decided Vote
18%
23% 24% 22%
17%
22% 21%
26%
19%
23%
27%
22% 23% 21%
32%
38%
56%
59%
52%
47%
37%
22%
19%
24%
30%
33%
29%
32% 31% 29%
35%
32%
35%
32%
22%
14%
23%
17%
12%
19%
23% 24%
43%
39%
28% 26% 27%
24% 22%
25% 25%
16%
20%
23%
26%
32% 34%
22%
17%
22%
16% 18%
21%
14% 15%
19%
16% 18% 19% 18%
14%
20% 21%
17% 15% 14%
18%
14% 12%
8%
5% 7%
9%
13%
2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4%
6% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5%
3% 2% 1%
5%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 4%
NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
30%
29%
26%
9%
5%
1%
Low High
24.8% 35.2%
23.8% 34.2%
20.8% 31.2%
3.8% 14.2%
- 10.2%
- 6.2%
Provincial Political Horserace�-Decided Vote-
% Decided Voters (n=358)
Some other party
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?
CALGARY (CMA)
MARGIN OF ERROR (+/- 5.2%)
Initial Undecided 17%
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
Provincial Political Horserace�-Calgary (CMA) Tracking-
% Decided Vote
5%
14% 15%
14% 12% 12% 12%
10%
13%
10% 11%
8% 8% 10%
12%
18%
31% 33%
36%
30% 29%
37%
32%
35%
38%
43%
40%
37% 39%
38%
49%
44%
40% 40%
29%
20%
32%
28%
24%
29% 29% 30%
45%
33%
28% 26%
22%
28% 29%
30% 30%
20%
27% 27%
34%
38%
44%
27%
23%
31%
24% 26% 26%
11% 11% 12%
14% 15%
13% 15%
14% 15% 15%
13%
19%
12%
15% 14% 14%
11%
7%
4%
9% 9%
1%
4% 3%
4% 4% 5%
4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
4% 4% 6%
8% 7%
6% 4%
6% 5% 5%
0%
6% 6%
3% 3% 2% 2%
4% 2%
3% 2%
1% 2% 2%
3% 2%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
29% 30%
43%
22% 23%
33%
29%
20%
37%
51%
25% 25%
17%
30%
22%
8% 10%
15%
6%
1% 3%
5%
1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 3%
1%
AB Total Calgary (City) Edmonton (City) Small Urban Rural
NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other
Provincial Political Horserace�-By Region-
% Decided Voters (n=1059)
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?
DECIDED VOTE (Leaners Included)
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
Provincial Political Horserace�-Edmonton (City) Tracking-
% Decided Vote
21%
26% 27% 26%
20%
25% 24%
29%
20%
26%
30%
25% 25% 23%
33%
42%
59%
64%
55% 54%
43%
18% 17%
21%
27%
31%
24%
29% 28% 27%
32% 29%
32%
27%
19%
12%
21%
12%
8%
16% 19% 20%
41%
36%
25% 24% 22% 22%
20% 22%
24%
15% 17%
21%
26%
31% 32%
22%
18% 21%
14% 13%
17% 16% 18%
21% 18%
22% 23% 21%
17%
22% 23%
19%
15% 16%
20%
15% 13%
8% 5%
8% 9%
15%
2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5%
3%
7% 4% 4%
7% 5% 5%
7%
2% 2% 1%
6%
2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 3%
1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
3% 4%
NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
Provincial Political Horserace�-Calgary (City) Tracking-
% Decided Vote
5%
13%
16% 14%
12% 12% 12% 11%
13%
10% 12%
8% 8% 10%
12%
19%
31%
34%
37%
31% 30%
36%
31%
34% 36%
41% 39%
35% 37%
36%
48%
42%
39% 38%
28%
19%
31%
25% 23%
27% 28%
29%
46%
33%
28% 27%
23%
29% 30%
31% 31%
20%
27% 28%
36% 38%
43%
27%
24%
31%
24% 25% 25%
12% 11%
12%
15% 16%
13%
16% 14%
15% 16%
14%
19%
13%
16% 14% 14%
12%
7%
4%
9% 10%
1%
4% 3%
4% 5% 5% 5%
4% 3% 3% 3%
5% 4%
6% 8%
7% 7%
4% 6% 6%
5%
1%
6% 7%
4% 3%
2% 2% 4%
2% 3%
2% 1%
2% 2% 3%
2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
Provincial Political Horserace�-Small Urban Tracking-
% Decided Vote *self reported
7%
10% 10%
13%
10%
14%
10% 12%
15% 14% 14%
11% 13% 14%
18%
23%
37%
33% 31%
24% 22%
35%
32%
42%
38% 38%
45%
41% 39%
35%
46%
39%
43%
47%
33%
21%
32% 33%
30%
37%
40%
37%
46%
42%
34%
27%
31%
24%
31% 30%
39%
23%
30% 29% 29%
39%
44%
27%
20%
31%
21%
26%
30%
8%
11%
8% 10% 11% 12% 11% 12%
9%
14% 13% 14%
8% 9%
14%
10%
6%
2%
6% 7% 6%
1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
5%
2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%
6%
3% 2%
5% 3% 2%
4% 3% 3%
10% 8%
2% 4% 3%
0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
3%
NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other
CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved
6% 5% 8% 8%
6% 5% 8%
4%
9% 11% 11% 10%
5%
9%
16%
20%
29% 29% 27%
19%
23%
61% 62%
48%
61%
55%
61%
56%
61%
65% 66% 64%
60%
55%
44%
32%
46%
40%
45% 46% 43%
51%
29% 27%
37%
24% 26% 27%
25%
29%
19%
14%
18%
25%
31% 30%
39%
21% 18%
23% 21%
27%
22%
3% 2% 4% 5%
7% 6% 5% 5% 4%
8% 6%
3%
8%
12%
8% 7% 10%
1% 1% 4%
1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
5%
0% 3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4%
2% 1% 4%
6%
2% 0%
2% 1% 1% 4%
0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other
Provincial Political Horserace�-Rural Tracking-
% Decided Vote *self reported
Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever, without the prior wriHen consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.
For more informaKon, contact: Marc Henry, President ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. [email protected]
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