Extreme Weather and Climate events, livelihoods ... · Extreme Weather and Climate events,...
Transcript of Extreme Weather and Climate events, livelihoods ... · Extreme Weather and Climate events,...
Doc Ref no: GLM_IPCC-SREX_20 -22 October 2013.1
Extreme Weather and Climate events, livelihoods, infrastructures and
Socio-economics
Rudzani MalalaSouth African Weather Service
Regional Manager: Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga078 546 3900
20-22 October 2013 IPCC-SREX Seminar
Introduction and Overview•Extreme weather and climate events are increasing in frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing.
•Studies have shown that extreme weather and climate events affect the most vulnerable communities mostly rural poor and people living with disabilities, notwithstanding the coastal communities as a result of changing climate.
•Building Resilience to extreme weather events as a result of Climate Change through Adaptation is the way to go
•Disaster Risk Reduction is everybody’s business, no one sector can achieve the desired results alone, hence collective effort is critical.
Extreme Weather and Climate Hazards
Thunderstorms (flash floods, lightning, thundershowers, hail, strong winds)
Tornadoes (violent winds, heavy thundershowers)
Tropical Cyclone (floods, strong winds)
Heat Waves (extremely high temperatures)
Cold fronts and Cutoff Low(floods, extreme cold conditions, snow, wet and windy conditions)
Drought (dry conditions, scarce water resources, adverse impact on farming).
Veld Fires (adverse economic losses)
This is where our cold fronts come from
Eumetsat 8
Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)
1700Z 28-06-08
Weather and Climate Forecasting
Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-
mass
Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass
Eumetsat 8
Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)
1700Z 28-06-08
Weather and Climate Forecasting
Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-
mass
Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass
Eumetsat 8
Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)
1700Z 28-06-08
Damaging winds
Weather and Climate Forecasting
Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-
mass
Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass
Eumetsat 8
Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)
1700Z 28-06-08
Heavy rainfall
Weather and Climate Forecasting
Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass
Eumetsat 8
Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)
1700Z 28-06-08
Rough seas
Weather and Climate Forecasting
Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-
mass
Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass
Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass
Eumetsat 8
Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)
1700Z 28-06-08
Weather and Climate Forecasting
Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-
mass
Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass
Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass
Eumetsat 8
Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)
1700Z 28-06-08
Landslides
Weather and Climate Forecasting
This is where our cold fronts come from
Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-
mass
Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass
Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass
Eumetsat 8
Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)
1700Z 28-06-08
Heavy rainfall
Damaged infrastructure
Weather and Climate Forecasting
This is where our cold fronts come from
Entrainment of cold polar, sub-polar air-
mass
Entrainment of warm sub-tropical air-mass
Advection of cold sub-polar air-mass
Eumetsat 8
Airmass RGB= (5-6,8-9,5)
1700Z 28-06-08
Heavy rainfall
Snow
Weather and Climate Forecasting
Courtesy: Eumetsat
Ex-Tropical Cyclone – Favio now developed Tropical Low
Cold Fronts
Extra Tropical Cyclone Gamede
Tropical Temperate
Trough
Very Cold Air Mass
Swell
Wind
Freak waves
Freak waves
15
Extreme Weather related systems
Observed extreme weather and climate events Year Events
1991/22003/42007/8
Drought in Southern Africa
2000200620082010201120122013
Floods in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KZN and Flashfloods in Gauteng due to Tropical Storms/Cyclones). (Eline, Gamede, Dando, Ethel, Funso, Giovanna, Irina…).8 provinces declared disaster area in 2010 due to extreme events where over 100 people died(September 2012 snow storm) Western Cape and Eastern Cape get floods/ flashfloods almost every year due to frontal and cut off low weather systems.
??? What have learnt from all these extreme events?
Impact of Extreme Weather and Climate Hazards
Damaged infrastructure
Displaced communities
Impact on livelihoods
Severe economic loss
Lost agricultural land
• Weather Warnings were issued from the 14th Jan
• Heavy rains started on the 15th Jan• Continued up to the 21st Jan• 618.4mm recorded from 15th – 21st
Jan in Thohoyandou where 282.2 mm was recorded in one day (21st
Jan).• 15 deaths were reported, houses
damaged/collapsed, bridges washed away and thousands of people affected in Vhembe ad Mopani districts. 19
January 2013 Floods in Limpopo
• Lives were reported lost, • Houses damaged/ collapsed, • Bridges washed away and • Thousands of people affected • Cost estimate was over R1 bil
20
Impact on local communities
Forecasting Extreme Weather and Climate Hazards
Weather Forecasts (nowcasting, medium term and seasonal)
Remote Sensing information (Satellite, RADAR, LDN and Webcams)
Severe Weather Warnings
Fire Danger warnings
Drought Watch
Advisory (3-6 days)
Watch (1-3 days)
Warnings (24hrs)
No Warning
Advisory:Be aware
Watch:Be prepared
WarningTake action
Early Warning System
SAWS together with the Department of Environmental Affairs and Disaster Management Structures (National, Provincial, District and Local municipalities embarked on:
DRR workshops Awareness Campaign on Extreme Weather and Climate events Vulnerable Community outreach programs Participate in Career exhibitions and Science Week Youth Summit
Preparedness
Conclusion and Recommendations
Whilst the debate and conversations about the Climate Change continues, lets not forget that “Action Now” is what we need.
Local Community involvement is critical “Nothing for us without us”.
Extreme Weather and Climate events are becoming more real and common, therefore, working together we can build disaster resilient communities and finding sustainable solutions.