Extratropical & Tropical Transition: Two trajectories through cyclone ...
Transcript of Extratropical & Tropical Transition: Two trajectories through cyclone ...
Extratropical Transition: One Trajectory through a
Cyclone Phase Space2 May 2002
Robert Hart and Jenni EvansDepartment of Meteorology
Penn State University
Cyclone phase diagram• Generalized, continuum approach to describing cyclone structure proposed
schematically by Beven (1997) and also recently suggested by Reale and Atlas (2001).
• Objectively defined phase diagram proposed in Hart (2002, MWR and Poster P1.28).
• Provides considerably more freedom than two discrete groups of tropical, extratropical cyclones
• Cyclones described here using objective physically insightful parameters
• Storm-relative 900-600hPa mean thickness field (shaded) asymmetry within 500km radius:
Cyclone Parameter B: Thermal Asymmetry
LEFThPahPaRIGHThPahPa ZZZZB 900600900600
3160
m32
60mL
Cyclone Parameter B: Thermal Asymmetry
L L L
Developing(B>>0) Mature(B>0) Occlusion(B0)Conventional
Extratropical cyclone: B varies
L L L
Forming (B0) Mature(B0) Decay(B0)Conventional
Tropical cyclone: B 0
Cyclone Parameter -VT: Thermal WindWarm-core example: Floyd 14 Sep 1999
Focus here on 900-600hPa
-VTL >> 0
Cyclone Parameter -VT: Thermal WindCold-core example: Cleveland Superbomb 26 Jan 1978
Focus here on 900-600hPa
-VTL << 0
Cyclone phase
diagram: B Vs. -
VTL
Asymmetric cold-core
Symmetric cold-core
Asymmetric warm-core
Symmetric warm-core
Case example: Hurricane Floyd (1999)Track image from NHC Best-Track Analysis/web page
Extratropical transition (NHC)
Category 4 TC
Rapid movement & trough interaction
• Phase diagnosis: symmetric, moderately strong warm-core
• NHC Best-track: Tropical Storm 1000hPa /45knots
Asymmetric cold-core
Symmetric cold-core
Asymmetric warm-core
Symmetric warm-core
1200 UTC 9 Sept 1999
B
-VTL
Asymmetric cold-core
Asymmetric warm-core
Symmetric cold-core
0000 UTC 15 Sept 1999
B
-VTL
• Phase diagnosis: very strong, symmetric warm-core
• NHC Best-track: Hurricane 933hPa /115knots
Asymmetric cold-core
Symmetric cold-core
Asymmetric warm-core
0000 UTC 16 Sept 1999
B
-VTL
• Phase diagnosis: extratropical transition begins
• NHC Best-track: Hurricane 950hPa /90knots
Asymmetric cold-core
Symmetric cold-core
Asymmetric warm-core
1200 UTC 16 Sept 1999
B
-VTL
• Phase diagnosis: hybrid cyclone
• NHC Best-track: Hurricane 967hPa /70knots
Asymmetric cold-core
Symmetric cold-core
1200 UTC 17 Sept 1999
B
-VTL
• Phase diagnosis: extratropical transition completion
• NHC Best-track: Extratropical 984hPa /45knots
Asymmetric cold-core
Symmetric cold-core
1200 UTC 19 Sept 1999
B
-VTL
• Phase diagnosis: asymmetric, cold-core
Recent transition cases of similar trajectory but varied analysis,
geography & season
Erin (2001): NGP Michelle (2001): AVN
Vance (1999): NGP
Summary• Extratropical transition is correctly identified within the
phase space as the conversion:
symmetric/warm-core asymmetric cold-core
• Objective diagnoses (and forecast guidance when applied to model output) for the commencement & completion of extratropical transition possible
• Allows for comparison to satellite & model diagnostics presented by Harr & Elsberry (2000) and Klein et al. (2000)
Summary• The reverse (subtropical or tropical) transition can also be
diagnosed or forecast by also looking at –VTL Vs. -VT
U:Karen, Olga, Noel (2001)
• Phase diagrams are being produced in real-time and were used experimentally by CHC, NHC during the 2001 season: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/cyclonephase
• Intercomparison of phase diagrams from many forecast models may provide measure of lifecycle predictability & uncertainty ensembling
Future work• Further dynamical insight provided by other
measures? e.g. Thermal vorticity (Darr 2002)
• Examine phase predictability
• Impact of synthetic bogus on phase evolution:– Delay or acceleration of transitions?
Future work• Can phase diagram be used to indicate when
bogussing should cease?
• Synoptic evaluation of common trajectories
• Dynamics evolution along phase trajectory– Dynamics of hybrid cyclones
Acknowledgments
• Penn State University: Jenni Evans, Bill Frank, Mike Fritsch, Nelson Seaman
• SUNY Albany: Lance Bosart, John Molinari
• University of Wisconsin/CIMSS: Chris Velden
• National Hurricane Center (NHC): Jack Beven, Richard Pasch, Miles Lawrence, Lixion Avila
• Canadian Hurricane Center (CHC): Pete Bowyer
• Lawrence Livermore National Lab: Mike Fiorino
• NCDC: Satellite imagery• NCEP: Real-time gridded analyses & forecasts• NCAR/CDC: NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses
Images courtesy NCDC
Noel (2001)
Floyd (1999)
Unnamed TC (1991)
Gloria (1985)
Michael (2000)
President’s Day Blizzard (1979)
“Perfect” Storm (1991)
Superstorm of 1993
Extratropical Low
Cyclone parameter -VT: Thermal Wind
Z = ZMAX-ZMIN:
isobaric height difference within 500km radius
Proportional to geostrophic wind (Vg) magnitude
Z = d f |Vg| / g where
d=distance between height extrema, f=coriolis, g=gravity
Vertical profile of ZMAX-ZMIN is proportional to thermal wind (VT) if d is constant:
||ln
)(T
MINMAX VpZZ
-VT < 0 = Cold-core, -VT > 0 = Warm-core
500km
ZMIN
ZMAX
e.g. 700hPa height
900-600hPa: -VTL
600-300hPa: -VTU
Other Paths to Transition: Extended hybrid status.Gabrielle (2001) Charley (1986)
Results from competing forcings driving vertical structure change:
1. Trough interaction can drive asymmetric/cold-core development 2. Gulf stream can drive symmetric/warm-core development
Hybrid structure maintained over several days until one ultimately dominates or dissipation occurs
Cold-to-warm core transition: Tropical Transition of Hurricane Olga (2001)
-VTU Vs. -VT
L
-VTL
-VTU
Tropical transition begins when –VT
L > 0
(subtropical status)
Tropical transition completes when –VT
U > 0
(tropical status)
-VTU Vs. –VT
L
can show tendency toward a shallow or even deep warm-core structure when conventional analyses of MSLP, PV may be ambiguous or insufficient.
Asymmetric cold-core evolution: Extratropical Cyclone B Vs. -VT
L
-VTL
B
Increasing B as baroclinic development occurs.
After peak in B, intensification ensues followed by weakening of cold-core & occlusion.