Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn, Ethanol, and DDG Outlook

Iowa Beef Center Professional DevelopmentAmes, Iowa

Oct. 29, 2014

Chad HartAssociate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

chart@iastate.edu515-294-9911

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Corn Supply and Use2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 90.9

Yield (bu./acre) 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 174.2

Production (mil. bu.) 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 14,475

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,236

Imports (mil. bu.) 28 29 162 36 25

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,782 15,736

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 4,795 4,557 4,329 5,125 5,375

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 5,019 5,000 4,648 5,130 5,125

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,407 1,428 1,403 1,374 1,405

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,834 1,543 731 1,917 1,750

Total Use (mil. bu.) 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,546 13,655

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,128 989 821 1,236 2,081

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.40

Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for stocks

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. DDG Supply and Use2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Production (mil. metric tons) 38.7 38.6 35.9 39.5 39.5

Imports (mil. metric tons) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5

Total Supply (mil. metric tons) 39.1 39.0 36.3 40.0 40.0

Domestic (mil. metric tons) 30.9 31.4 28.1 27.5 27.5

Exports (mil. metric tons) 8.3 7.5 8.2 12.5 12.5

Total Use (mil. metric tons) 39.2 38.9 36.3 40.0 40.0

Average Price ($/ton) 188 222 257 205 161

My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields

Source: USDA-NASS

Top: 2014 YieldBottom: Change from last monthUnits: Bu/acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Objective Yield Data

Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Stocks

Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Renewable Fuels Standard

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Meat Production & Prices

Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales

Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

DDG Exports

Source: USDA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures

Source: CME Group, 10/24/2014

3.47

3.81

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/