Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions...
-
Upload
clementine-marsh -
Category
Documents
-
view
228 -
download
0
Transcript of Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions...
![Page 1: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Agriculture’s Realignment
“Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture”2014 Agricultural Symposium
Kansas City, MissouriJuly 16, 2014
Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
![Page 2: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: USDA-NASS
Iowa Crop Shifts
![Page 3: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Producer AdjustmentsNet farm income projected to decline
significantlyBut remain above 10-year average
Crop returns had led the charge as livestock struggledNow livestock prices are leading the industry
![Page 4: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Agribusiness AdjustmentsAgribusinesses have been caught in a
margin squeezeHigh crop prices don’t necessarily translate to
high agribusiness returns
Managing margins by controlling supply chains, tailoring products and messages to customers, boosting supplies, and focusing on international markets
![Page 5: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Rural Community AdjustmentsMacke: “Rural communities either innovate
or decline.”
More reliance on non-ag enterprises
Push back against trends: brain and wealth drain, homogenization, and competitiveness
![Page 6: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ag Lending AdjustmentsMore cautious approach
Stronger combination of financial and risk management strategies
Broader perspective on:Risks – policy, logistics, tax, trade, etc.Opportunities – international, expansion, etc.
![Page 7: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Population growth 2014 to 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base
![Page 8: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS
![Page 9: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Liquid Fuel Usage2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per
Day) (Percent of 2007 Value)
United States 20.6 98% 100% 102% 104% 107%
Canada 2.3 96% 96% 96% 100% 104%
Mexico 2.1 105% 110% 114% 129% 138%
Europe 15.3 92% 88% 88% 89% 90%
Japan 5.0 84% 86% 86% 84% 82%
China 7.6 132% 153% 178% 201% 222%
India 2.8 114% 129% 139% 154% 168%
Africa 3.1 113% 116% 126% 135% 148%
Central and South America 6.0 110% 112% 117% 125% 133%
World 86.1 103% 107% 113% 121% 128%
Source: DOE-EIA
![Page 10: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Chinese economic growth: 1990
![Page 11: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Dongguan, Dec. 10, 2005: McDonald’s opens first drive-thru in China; half of the 100 restaurants plan to open each year will have drive-thrus
Chinese economic growth: 2005
AP photomcchronicles.blogspot.com photo
![Page 12: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
1000 more cars added to the streets of Beijing every day
Chinese economic growth: 2008
![Page 13: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Open 24 hours Delivery 24 hoursMore than 1,800 McDonald’s in China, with 200 more on the way
Chinese economic growth: 2011
![Page 14: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
US agricultural trade with CanadaNAFTA
Two-way trade up 376% since NAFTA
Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations
![Page 15: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
US agricultural trade with MexicoNAFTA
Two-way trade up 472% since NAFTA
Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations
![Page 16: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU
![Page 17: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU
![Page 18: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Arable Land
![Page 19: Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Agriculture’s Realignment “Structural Transitions in Global Agriculture” 2014 Agricultural Symposium Kansas.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649ea25503460f94ba60d2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/