Export performance of Sri Lanka
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Transcript of Export performance of Sri Lanka
Export performance of Sri LankaStatistical Analysis
A interactive Forum “Whither Exports in the next 5 years?”, Organized by The Exporters Association of Sri Lanka25th October 2013
By Subhashini Abeysinghe, Senior Economic AnalystVerité Research Pvt. Ltd.
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0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
Sri Lanka South Korea Malaysia Thailand Viet Nam
Exports from selected East Asian Countries (as a % of World Exports)
Source: World Trade Organization
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
20120
20
40
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120
140
Malaysia Sri Lanka Thailand Korea, Rep.
Exports as a % of GDP: Comparison with East Asian NICs
Source: World Bank Data
1986
1987
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1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
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2012
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Bangladesh Vietnam India Sri Lanka Cambodia
Exports As a % of GDP: Comparison with selected developing countries in Asia
Source: World Bank Data
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-1
1
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-1
2
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-1
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-40
-20
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Export Growth Import Growth
Sri Lanka: Growth in Exports and Imports by Month
Gha
na
Vie
t Nam
Cam
bod
ia
Ind
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Ban
glad
esh
Bra
zil
Sout
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orea
Tha
ilan
d
Mal
aysi
a
Chi
le
Pak
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Sri L
anka
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5
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25
30
35
2002-12 2010-12
Annual Average Export Growth (%)
Source: World Trade Organization
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Agricultural exports Services exportsIndustrial Exports
Composition of Exports (Value USD Mn)
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Agriculture Services Industry
Composition of Exports (% of GDP)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka
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80
Industrial Exports (As a % of Total Exports)
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Agriculture Exports (As a % of Total Exports)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka
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China India IndonesiaMalaysia Sri Lanka ThailandViet Nam
Textile and Garments as a % of Manufacturing
20032005
20072009
20110
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VT (USD Bn) SL(USD Bn)VT (% of Manu.) SL(% of Manu.)
Garments Exports: Vietnam and Sri LankaValue & % of Manufacturing Exports
Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka
Source: World Trade Organization/Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
2007 2008 2009 2010250
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Persons engaged '000s (L)
No. of establishments (R )
No
of e
stab
lishm
ents
No
of P
erso
ns
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
200250300350400450500550600
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Value (US$ Mn) Quantity (Mn Units)
Us$
Mill
ion
Mill
ion
Uni
ts
Top 5 Products Exported to USA
Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20
1826
33 3831
4958 62
2002 2012
Leading apparel items exported as a % of Total apparel imports into USA from Sri Lanka (at 6 digit level)
Apparel Sector
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
Employment and Establishments
Source: US International Trade Commission
Agriculture Product Export Growth (%):2002-2012
Volume Value
Tea 10 121
Natural Rubber 1 362
Desiccated Coconut
-16 115
Cinnamon 36 203
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
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Volume Mn Kg Price Rs/KgM
illio
n Kg
Rs/K
g
Tea Exports (Price and Volume)
Agricultural Products
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Tea Bags Packets Bulk
Composition of Tea Exports
Perc
enta
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Tea Bags Packets Bulk Instant tea
Average Price (Rs per Kg)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Agricultural Products
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Labour Force (000' persons)
Daily wages (incl price share and incentive)
000'
Per
sons
Rs per D
ay
Employment and Wages - Plantations
Sri L
anka
Ban
glad
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Ind
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Ken
ya
Vie
tnam
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COP (USD/Kg)Productivity (000Kg/ha/yr)
Cost of Production and Productivity- Tea
Source: Statistical Information on Plantation Crops
Agricultural Products
CR(5) CR(10) CR (15)
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2005 2012
Product Concentration of Exports at HS 4 digit (% of Total Exports)
Other
Apparel
Petroleum products
Tea
Rubber products
Spices
Diamonds
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
2012 2002
Composition of Exports by Product
Product Concentration
Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Market Concentration2
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Asa EU USA Other Asia - India
Direction of Exports (As a % of Total Exports)
CR(5) CR(10) CR(15)
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7582
51
6674
2005 2012
Market Concentration of Exports (% of Total Exports)
Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
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World Exports (USD BN) Share of Sri Lanka
% S
har
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Valu
e USD
Bn
Commercial Services: Value of World Exports and the Market Share of Sri Lanka
Source: World Trade Organisation
Services Exports
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IndiaMalaysiaSri LankaViet NamIndonesiaThailand
Exports as a % of Total World Export of Commercial Services
Services Exports
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20
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20
10
20
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20
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0
200
400
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1200
IT/BPO Sector
Export Earnings: USD Million
Financial Attractiveness
People, skills and availability
Business Environment
Total Score
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
6
33
44
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Ranking of Sri LankaGlobal Locations Index 2011
Overal rank
Environmental sustainability
Tourism infrastructure
ICT infrastructure
Availability of qualified labor
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
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Travel and Tourism Competitiveness IndexRank out of 140 countries (2013)
Services Exports
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports & Export Development Board
Source of Export GrowthIntensive Margin or Extensive Margin?
40096123033853118985212008874424958463397162
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Shift in Product Composition: 2005 & 2012 (Change as a % of Exports): HS Description
62 Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted71 Precious stones39 Plastics/articles thereof63 Made up textile articles84 Machinery and parts95 Toys, games, sports equip.24 Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco44 Wood and articles thereof87 Vehicle spare parts
08 Coconuts/fruits20 Preparations vegetables, fruits
21 Misc. edible preparations85 Electrical machinery and parts89 Ships, boats11 Milling industry products
53 Veg. textile fibers38 Misc. chemical products03 Fish23 Residues from food indus/animal feed
61 Apparel – Knitted or crocheted09 Tea and spices40 Rubber and articles thereof
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Annual Average Growth (%) : 2006 - 2012
HS Description
39 Plastics/articles thereof61 Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted71 Precious stones63 Made up textile articles95 Toys, games, sports equip.61 Apparel – Knitted or crocheted24 Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco09 Tea and spices87 Vehicle spare parts03 Fish44 Wood and articles thereof53 Veg. textile fibers84 Machinery and parts40 Rubber and articles thereof08 Coconuts/fruits
85 Electrical machinery and parts38 Misc. chemical products11 Milling industry products20 Preparations vegetables, fruits
23 Residues from food indus/animal feed21 Misc. edible preparations49 Printed books, papers, pictures89 Ships, boats
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Source of Export GrowthIntensive Margin or Extensive Margin?
ITALY
BELGIUM
IRAQ
INDNSIA
GERMANY
LIBYA
AUSTRAL
MEXICO
THAILND
SWEDEN
PAKISTN
HG KONG
NETHLDS
SU.ARAB
JAPAN
SNGAPOR
U.KING.
U.S.A.
-10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Change in Direction of Exports: 2005 &2012
AZERBAIJAIN
MALAYSIA
IRAQ
CHINA
SWEDEN
TURKEY
SWITZERLAND
MALDIVES
MEXICO
HONG KONG
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
GERMENY
NETHERLANDS
U.A.E.
FRANCE
TOTAL
INDIA
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Average Export Growth (2005-2012)
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Source of Export GrowthIntensive Margin or Extensive Margin?
Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Sri Lanka 0
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10
15
20
25
30
35
40
As
a %
of T
otal
Exp
orts
Exports to Selected Asian Countries (China, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore)
Exports to Asia
Source: www.trademap.org
Exports from Sri Lanka: Shrinking Share in a Growing Market
Time Taken to Double World Exports
USD Trillion
1979-1991
1991-2003
2003-2008
2-4 4-8 8-16
13 Years 13 Years 6 Years
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0.00%
0.01%
0.02%
0.03%
0.04%
0.05%
0.06%
0.07%
0.08%
0.09%
0.10%
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4
6
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10
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World Exports Share of Sri Lanka
% S
har
e of
Sri
Lan
ka
World
Export V
alue U
SD T
N
World Export Value of Merchandise Exports and World Market Share of Sri Lanka
?
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Agriculture products Clothing
Share of Agricultural Products and Clothing Exports in World Exports
Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?
Source: World Trade Organisation
Source: Key Trends in International Merchandise Trade, UNCTAD, 2013
Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
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90
Developed economies Developing economies Developing economies: Asia
Share of World Imports
Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?
Source: UNCTAD International Trade Statistics
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