Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056
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Transcript of Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056
Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056
Health and Safety
Antarctic Youth Council
Charlie Wilkinson Miranda Voke Jacob Anderson Christoph Kraus Peggy Cunningham-Hales
Hanne Nielsen James Tremlett Lagi Tuimavave Ngahuia Leighton(Chair)
Panel
Andrew Townend Dr Neil Gilbert Rear Admiral John Martin Lou Sanson
Tim NaishLionel Carter
• A healthy (almost-)centenarian• An enduring ban on mining• A vigorous system of governance
The Antarctic Treaty in 2056
Andrew Townend
The Antarctic Treaty in 2056
Dr. Neil GilbertIndependent Antarctic Consultant
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
2000
2010
2020Territorial claims
Regime implementation
Regime development
Sealing Convention
Mining Convention
Fishing Convention
Environmental Protocol
Antarctic Treaty
Agreed Measures ?
Liability Annex
• Influencing factors– Antarctic values (peak science?); climate & environmental
change; increasing human activity; belief in the system
• Choice 1 – Business as usual– Huge past success leading to “interested laissez-faire”
• Choice 2 – Enhanced commitment– Determination to invest in current system– An ATS fulfilling its global responsibilities
• Choice 3 – Future reinvented– A revised 21st century governance regime
The Antarctic Treaty in 2056 – it’s a choice thing!
Rear Admiral John Martin, ONZM…
Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056
• What will be the emergent threats?
• Is our organisation consistent with our strategy?
• What is the honourable thing to do?
• Why our history with Antarctica really matters as kiwis
• Why a policy pull on science is so important to New Zealand
• Why people in nature will ultimately keep the ATS strong
Lou Sanson
Lionel Carter
ice sheet loss increasing √
ice shelves retreating √
more icebergs ?
sea ice slight increase X
ocean warmer and fresher √
sea level rising √
changing winds √ currents stronger √
less alkaline √
biota affected e.g. plankton √ ?
31 Jan. 2002
23 Feb. 2002
13 April. 2002
Source: NSIDC
S. Ocean last 50yr - ongoing
CampbellPlateau
DWBC
STF
?
?
?UU
O
Unclear
Observation
W
W A
WC
C
T
NZ Pole vs Equator now and ongoing
?
An example
Subantarctic NZ Ocean warming Reduced W winds Nutrients More blooms Likely Outcome Algal dominant as per
last warm period.
Antarctic Treaty System and Science
Guarantees continued freedom to conduct scientific research
Promotes international scientific cooperation including the exchange of research plans and personnel, and requires that results of research be made freely available
Tim Naish
NZ’s scientific tradition & reputation in Antarctica
Big International Antarctic ScienceANDRILL
Ocean Drilling
Ice Coring
Census of Marine Ant. Life
Latitudinal Gradient Project
Science DiplomacyMcMurdo Wind Farm
Admiral Dufek boards the Endeavour
• Science and diplomacy increasingly important to NZs broader foreign policy agenda
• China, Korea, USA, Italy
Future science aligned with national and international priorities and directions
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Sources listed in Church et al. IPCC (2013)
DeConto & Pollard 2016
Golledge et al., 2015, Also Ritz et al., 2016, Nature1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
(m)
Climate change impacts on Antarctica and the impacts of Antarctic ice melt on global sea-level rise by 2065
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
RCP 8.5 business as usual
RCP 2.6 Paris target
• RCP 2.6 saves the Antarctic ice shelves
• More than 2°C above pre-industrial commits Antarctica to ongoing melt and sea-levels up to 10m above present.
• A critical issue for future ACTS is mitigation strategy to achieve Paris target
2065
Thank you