EXPLORING MULTIPLE ENERGY FUTURES Using Patent Trends, TRIZ, Scenario Writing and AHP

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c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r

March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 1

2 0 1 0

7th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON FUELS AND LUBRICANTS

Theme:

Advances in Fuels and Lubricants

March 9-12, 2010 India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, India

Organised by

Exploring Multiple Energy Futures– Using Patent Trends, TRIZ,Scenario Writing and AHP

Navneet Bhushan#, Karthikeyan Iyer and Ashank Reddy

# Email: [email protected]

Crafitti Consulting Private Limited, Bangalore

http://www.crafitti.com

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ABSTRACT

Despite many technological advances, human race has continued to rely on fossil fuels for its expanding energy consumption, thus depleting these precious resources at much faster rates than they are replenished. There is a need to describe, imagine and explore possible energy futures that we are facing in next 20 years or so. This paper use a new integrated approach which combines scenario planning and studies of patent trends in specific domains and combine them with the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ). This integrated approach results in much more comprehensive and robust scenarios. The resulting scenarios are explored to determine new possibilities for our energy needs. The scope of research into energy efficient mechanisms (both present and future) is then prioritized in each scenario. This is carried out using a combination of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The comprehensive multi-dimensional and multi-perspective (MDMP) methodology proposed in this paper using well-established scientific methods results in exploration of multiple energy futures thus creating more robust solution directions.


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Multi Dimensional Multi Perspective (MDMP)Methodology to Explore the Future

STEP 1 Write MULTIPLE FUTURE SCENARIOS

STEP 2 EXPLORE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS (PATENTS) –EXTRAPOLATE IF POSSIBLE

STEP 3 IMAGINE And FORECAST FUTURE POSSIBILITIES (Thought Experiments, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ))

STEP 4 PLAY OUT PATENTS TRENDS and TRIZ POSSIBILITIES in Various SCENARIOS and EVALUATE USING Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)


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ENERGY SCEANRIOS –3 SCENARIO PLANNING STUDIES

Two SHELL ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2050

• SCRAMBLE VS BLUEPRINTS

– In a Polarized Reactive World• Step wise inadequate transition from coal to biofuels to

renewables (wind, solar)

• Shift towards bio-fuels and the demand for fossil-derivedfuels decelerates.

– In a Collaborative Proactive World• Incentivizing early stage technologies

• Emergence of renewable driven electric transport anddemand for both fossil and bio-fuels start reducing


Four WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL (WEC) SCENARIOS

Three WORLD ECONOMIC

FORUM – INDIA AND THE WORLD

SCENARIOS 2025

Bollyworld Scenario, India follows the path of a make-believe

world characterized by typical bollywood movie. Superficial Growth!

The Pahale Bharat (“Putting India First”) Scenario Idealized transformational scenario requires a movement where all rise above the petty local issues.

Atakta Bharat (“India Getting Stuck”) Scenario, Indian

government fails to take action to instigate reforms. This scenario paints a very bleak future for India.

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Four Future Scenarios – ENERGY OF INDIA Perspective


SCENARIO Shell Scenarios WEC Study WEF Study

Holistic Organized Systemic Empowerment

(HOSE)

Blueprints LION PahaleBharat

Specific Adaptive Modular

Enhancement (SAME)Scramble GIRAFFE Atakata

Bharat

Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement

(SORE)

Scramble LEOPARD AtakataBharat

Holistic Organized Modular Engagement

(HOME)

Blueprints ELEPHANT PahaleBharat

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Holistic Organized Systemic Empowerment (HOSE)

This scenario combines elements of Blueprints from Shell scenario, elements ofLION scenario from WEC scenarios and elements of Pahale Bharath from WEFscenario study. The world wakes up to the energy challenge with the associatedenvironment consequences and through an unprecedented level of inter-government cooperation combined with informal and formal social networksacross boundaries join hands to create a holistic response to these challenges.The global sharing and collaboration designed under this scenario percolatesdown to individual countries and in fact Indians wakes up to these needs andcome up to put “India first” to eliminate and minimize the individualistic issuesand conflicts. The world cooperates in technology, science and commerce in anunprecedented manner. The ideals of “One world Joint Response” leads toimproving the energy security of the whole world as the waste of resources isminimized everywhere. The joint technology development in the renewableresources openly embraces collaboration across all boundaries.


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Specific Adaptive Modular Enhancement (SAME)

This scenario combines elements of Scramble from the Shell Study with elements of Giraffe scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of Atakta Bharat, wherein neither the government is connected with the world nor does it facilitate inclusive growth for the people of India. In the SAME scenario, the world nations continue to view each other with suspicion which leads to reduction in the pace of globalization and collaboration. There is an increase in entrepreneurship, new products and technologies. India, however, continues to remain a divided society – with half a population remaining unconnected with the new development. This leads to unprecedented increase in frustration in the form of young and unemployed population. The increase in violence on petty issues continues to plague the nation.


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Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement (SORE)

This scenario combines elements of Scramble from the Shell Study with elements of Leopard scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of Atakta Bharat. In the SORE scenario, the world nations look at their own interests only. The anti-globalization sentiments increase with the associated increase in the conflicts and hoarding of energy resources. With extremely individualistic and short term focus the voices of reason and rationality are trampled by the egos of nations. India continues to remain a divided society – with half a population remaining unconnected with the new development. The world finds itself on the brink of energy and environment crises with a very strong possibility of First World War of the millennium.


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Holistic Organized Modular Engagement (HOME)

This scenario combines elements of Blueprints from the Shell Study with elements of Elephant scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of Pahale Bharat. In the HOME scenario, the world nations are organized into 4-5 different poles. It has become a multi-polar world looking at the interests of only their own group. These poles or group of nations, although connected with each other through trade and other links, do not interfere in each other’s businesses and follow the principles of peaceful co-existence. Within their own pole, they organize themselves as hierarchies based on the energy surplus available to them. India assumes a position of strength as being at the helm of one of the poles in the pentapolar world of 2050. With innovative strategies for inclusive growth, India takes pragmatic initiatives to join hands with many like-minded countries in the penta-polar world. The multiple poles work towards enhancing their own energy security, however, they come together to resolve conflicts and contradictions related to environment in a more or less cohesive manner.


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PATENT TRENDS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

# o

f In

tern

ati

on

al

Ap

ps

Alternate Energy Patent Apps Trends

solar power (materials or cells and modules)

solar power (systems)

Wind Power

Wave and Tidal

Hyrogen Production

Hydrogen Storage

Fuel cells

Carbon capture and Storage

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Japanese patent application number JP 2008101598 suggests the addition of water to petroleum fuel to increase fuel economy.

Water PetrolIncreased Fuel

Economy+

Some Interesting Patents

JP 2008127578 gives a lubricating oil composition that can decrease the amount of fuel consumption in an internal combustion engine.

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March 15, 2010 13© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.

Patent application number CN 101016488/ KR20040104318 describes a methanol reformulated fuel alternative to gasoline.


US2008047290 provides a method and an apparatus to stop and overcome

the known shortage of the fresh water

through its obtaining by freezing-out from the

atmospheric air, even in the most arid, but

sunny, areas of the Earth, as well as to

substitute the organic and nuclear fuels by the

hydrogen-fuel obtained, by decomposition of

the fresh water, as the materialized energy of

the concentrated and accumulated Sun-heat

and of the accumulated night cosmic cold.

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March 15, 2010 14© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.

US2009288584 (A1) provides a method to convert solid combustible waste materials highly efficient fuel

by subjecting such materials to size reduction in suitable

size-reducing equipment. The last piece of the equipment is a

mill which pulverizes the waste materials into fine particles

having a high surface to mass ratio and forming a highly

efficient fuel when these particles are directly injected into a

combustion reactor operating at high temperature.


WO 2009101647(A1)

describes a procedure to

produce bio-fuels of

natural origin from

organic wastes

Organic Wastes Bio-Fuels

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Two Clear Strategies from Patent Filing Trends

• The analysis of patent documents indicate a two-pronged approach is being followed which we name –

– (a) The Use it Well approach (the technology that could use the available oil, coal or gas in the most efficient way possible) and

– (b) Make the Move approach, a futuristic approach of moving into alternate sources of energy.


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TRIZ – Inventive Problem Solving by Altshuller

Teoriya Resheniya Izobreatatelskikh Zadatch• 1946 Patent Officer in Russian Navy

• Discovered patterns in patents, published paper. Sent to Gulag

• 1954 released, analysed 2,500,000 patents

• Identified what makes a successful patent

• 1956-1985 TRIZ formulated

• Same Problems and Solutions appear repeatedly in different industries (Myth: My field is Unique )

• There are a series of recognizable evolution paths for all technical systems (Myth: Evolution is Completely Random)

• Innovative solutions used theories outside their own area/industry (Myth: Innovation happens through Deeper Knowledge)

• The most powerful solutions uncover and eliminate contradictions (Myth: Optimization is the Focus)

TRIZ itself does not solve problems.

Problems are solved by people.

TRIZ teaches how to solve problems.

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TRIZ: Laws of Evolution

1. Law of Increasing Degree of Ideality - Increasing Ratio -> Benefits/Harm (cost)

2. Law of Non-uniform evolution of subsystems -> Leads to System Conflicts

3. Law of Transition to a higher Level system -> from simple to more complex

4. Law of Increasing dynamism (flexibility) -> More adaptable to change

5. Law of Transition to micro-level -> Increasing fragmentation

6. Law of Completeness -> Gradual Elimination of Human Component

7. Law of Shortening of Energy Flow Path -> Reduction in Energy/Info transformation stages

8. Law of Increasing controllability -> Evolution of controlled interactions of system elements

9. Law of Harmonization of rhythms -> Synchronization of natural frequencies of elements

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Future of Energy using TRIZ Laws of System Evolution

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c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e rUse of easily available perishing energy

sources (fossil fuels –natural gas, oil)

Use of widely available perishing energy sources (coal)

Use of widely available but slowly replenishing energy sources (bio-

fuel)

Minimal energy wastage (minimum transportation

of energy, minimum emissions)

Complete recapture and use of energy waste (heat) and emissions

Use of free, clean energy sources (non-polluting renewable energy - wind, solar)

IFR - Self-sustaining, self-cleaning energy

(humans and machines self sustain – perpetual machines)

Working backwards from Ideal Final Result

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Higher level energy systems are able to work with higher

entropy energy forms .e.g. movement from fossil-fuels to bio-

fuel and then to geothermal, wind, solar, tidal

energy. Collaborative science and technology helps multiple

domains like material science, nanotechnology,

biotechnology etc. to come together and create the next level

of biological energy systems that actively generate and store

energy.

Live

En

erg

y

Transition to higher

level systems

Smart Materials

Biotech

NanotechIncreasing number and diversity of systems,

convolving into materials with built-in

functional zones

Bio-batteries like sugar molecules store

energy captured from sunlight similar to

photosynthesis in plants).

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Systems are built for highly efficient utilization of popular energy

sources, e.g. Cars engines are able to operate on petrol, diesel,

natural gas, CNG, LPG, ethanol or any combinations.

Systems are able to dynamically adapt to a larger variety of energy

sources, albeit with only above average efficiencies, initially.

Mu

lti E

ne

rgy Increasing dynamism

Transition to active

adapting, self adapting,

forward sensing systems

All cars come pre- equipped with

variety of energy crunchers - solar

panels, batteries, diesel engines,

batteries, wind sails etc.

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Energy consumption is measured in milliliters or equivalent

rather than liter equivalents. Oil supply and demand

measured in liters rather than barrels. Systems are also able

to capture in the minutest quantities, store and re-utilize

energy wasted during transmission and use.

Dro

p E

ne

rgy

Transition to micro-

level

Crystal sponge

holds three

times more

hydrogen than

any known

substance

Crystal Lattice to molecules to atom-

ions to elementary particles

Law of completeness

Dislodging of human involvement

Roads are designed with

structured bumps – car

suspension systems are able to

store and re-use the energy

generated.

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Systems become increasingly segmented

and modular. Standardization helps iron out

inefficiencies in energy storage,

transmission and use.

New plug and play automobiles are widely

used. Users can assemble their own cycles,

motorbikes and cars, or convert one to

another with easy toolkits.

Mo

du

lar

Ene

rgy Increasing dynamism

Increasing

controllability

Increasing flexibility of physical

structures – rigid system to

system with one or more flexing

points to elastomeric systems

Moving towards completely

controlled fields – gravity to

electromechanical

A modular family car

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Ene

rgy

Ne

ts

Bio-Fuel

Food

Competition for landNon-uniform evolution of

sub-systems

Harmonization of rhythmsIntegrated supply chains for food

and bio-fuel

Shortening of Energy

Flow Path

From multiple systems to synchronized

systems – function distribution

Lesser number of energy transformation

stages

Lowest energy transmission loss by

enabling fuel to energy conversion

at last mile

With the advent of bio-fuels, food and fuel supply

chains are integrated. The resulting supply chain

efficiencies salvage the escalating global standoff

between food crops and fuel crops.

Vegetable oils are used for both food and fuel.

All households have simple thermal oil

convertors.

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Ene

rgy

Ne

tsThe Global Energy Network

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TRIZ Laws of Evolution Strategy

Non-uniform evolution of sub-systems

Harmonization of rhythms

Shortening of energy flow path

Energy Nets With the advent of bio -fuels, food and fuel supply chains are integrated. The resulting supply chain efficiencies salvage the escalating global standoff between food crops and fuel crops. Vegetable oils are used for both food and fuel. All households have simple thermal oil convertors.

Transition to higher level system

Law of system completeness

Live Energy Higher level energy systems are able to work with higher entropy energy forms .e.g. movement from fossil -fuels to bio-fuel and then to geothermal, wind, solar, tidal energy. Systems are also able to store and re-utilize energy wasted during transmission and use. Collaborative science and technology helps multiple domains like material science, nanotechnology, biotechnology et c. to come together and create the next level of biological energy systems that actively generate and store energy. Roads are designed with structured bumps – car suspension systems are able to store and re -use the energy generated. Bio-batteries like sugar molecules store energy captured from sunlight similar to photosynthesis in plants.

Increasing dynamism

Harmonization of rhythms

Shortening of energy flow path

Multi-Energy Systems are built for highly efficient utilization of popular energy sources, e.g. Cars engines are able to operate on petrol, diesel, natural gas, CNG, LPG, ethanol or any combinations. Systems are able to dynamically adapt to a larger variety of energy sources, albeit with only above a verage efficiencies, initially. All cars come pre- equipped with variety of energy crunchers - solar panels, batteries, diesel engines, batteries, wind sails etc.

Transition to micro -level Drop Energy Energy consumption is measured in milliliters or equivalent rather than liter equivalents. Oil supply and demand measured in liters rather than barrels.

Increasing dynamism

Increasing Controllability

Modular Energy Systems become increasingly segmented and modular. Standardization helps iron out inefficiencies in energy storage, transmission and use. New plug and play automobiles are widely used. Users can assemble their own cycles, motorbikes and cars, or convert one to another with easy toolkits.

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Analytic Hierarchy Process is a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Technique


SCENARIOS Strategy Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3

Geo

Mean

Relative

Value of

Strategy

Energy Nets 0.453 0.524 0.476 0.484 0.485

Live Energy 0.037 0.050 0.054 0.046 0.046

Multi-Energy 0.234 0.191 0.197 0.207 0.207

Drop Energy 0.061 0.051 0.056 0.056 0.056

Modular Energy 0.215 0.185 0.216 0.204 0.205

Energy Nets 0.055 0.039 0.053 0.048 0.051

Live Energy 0.087 0.346 0.202 0.183 0.193

Multi-Energy 0.196 0.126 0.130 0.148 0.156

Drop Energy 0.296 0.290 0.196 0.256 0.270

Modular Energy 0.367 0.199 0.419 0.312 0.330

Energy Nets 0.035 0.038 0.041 0.038 0.043

Live Energy 0.275 0.136 0.155 0.180 0.203

Multi-Energy 0.176 0.345 0.148 0.208 0.235

Drop Energy 0.444 0.136 0.229 0.240 0.272

Modular Energy 0.070 0.345 0.427 0.218 0.247

Energy Nets 0.454 0.472 0.574 0.497 0.504

Live Energy 0.033 0.049 0.046 0.042 0.043

Multi-Energy 0.222 0.146 0.150 0.169 0.171

Drop Energy 0.070 0.135 0.080 0.091 0.092

Modular Energy 0.222 0.197 0.150 0.187 0.190

Holistic Organized

Systemic

Empowerment

(HOSE)

Specific Adaptive

Modular

Enhancement (SAME)

Specific Organized

Reactive

Enhancement (SORE)

Holistic Organized

Modular Engagement

(HOME)

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Which Energy Strategy will work in Which Scenario more ….


0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50Energy Nets

Live Energy

Multi-Energy Drop Energy

Modular Energy

Holistic Organized Systemic Empowerment (HOSE)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40Energy Nets

Live Energy


Modular Energy

Specific Adaptive Modular Enhancement (SAME)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30Energy Nets

Live Energy


Modular Energy

Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement (SORE)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60Energy Nets

Live Energy


Modular Energy

Holistic Organized Modular Engagement (HOME)

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What should be the LONG TERM STRATEGY …..

It is evident that in HOSE and HOME Scenarios, the Energy Nets strategy emerges as the top priority with almost 50% relative value. However, in the SAME and SORE scenarios, Energy Net strategy is of least value. In the SAME scenario Modular Energy and Drop Energy strategies become more important while in the SORE Modular, Drop, Multi and Live energy have very close relative values.

Once can choose a relative path based on the possibility of future.

However, given the need of global cooperation, creating an integrated global collaborative energy net seems to be the most important

long term strategy.


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CONCLUSIONS

• An integrated methodology combining Scenario planning, Patent trends, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This is used as a test case in scenarios for possible futures of energy in the global context.

• One can see the efficacy of the methodology as the results explore multiple inputs and contexts to generate newer and different possibilities yet integrating in the overall context.

• We intend to develop and apply this methodology in further detailed explorations of future energy needs of the world.

• Lastly, we look forward to active collaborators in our explorations of future as we believe the methodology reinforced with multiple domain experts from wide ranging organizations will lead to a more Energized Future – we believe this is really the need of the hour!


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Thank You

Crafitti Consulting Pvt Ltd |www.crafitti.com

([email protected])

[email protected]

© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.

EXPLORING MULTIPLE ENERGY FUTURES Using Patent Trends, TRIZ, Scenario Writing and AHP

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Transcript of EXPLORING MULTIPLE ENERGY FUTURES Using Patent Trends, TRIZ, Scenario Writing and AHP