Exploring cynefin transitions v14
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Transcript of Exploring cynefin transitions v14
12/9/2014
1
Exploring Transitions in the Complex Domain
Expanding upon the Cynefin Knowledge Framework
@tonyjoyce
Working draft v14
@tonyjoyce 2
This is the
starting place
for my search
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http://www.cognitive-edge.com/blogs/dave/2011/10/a_typology_of_foresight.php
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From my blog post on the Transitory Zone
Easy
U
nkn
ow
n
Imp
oss
ible
Unexpected Plausible Deliberate
bluffing, bogey
diplomacy, soft power, integrative
negotiation
brinksmanship, chicken
coercion, demands
seize opportunity, early adopters
neglect, avoidance,
laggards
collusion, Luddites
follow the crowd,
mainstream
Awareness of dynamic
Ability to manage constraint
Complex domain
Inauthentic disorder 12/9/2014 @tonyjoyce 3
Easy (Ability to Manage)
Working Across the Transition Zone (shifted 45° to emphasize the baseline)
Disorder Ambiguity Complexity
Unknown (Unaware, Hidden)
Plausible (Mainstream)
Deliberate (Awareness of
dynamic)
Plausible (Integrative)
Unknown (Aware,
Crisis)
Higher Constraints
Lower Constraints
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About Collaboration
• Collaboration is a dispositional coherence – Intentional coherence is the vector into the complex
domain (from higher & lower constraints and ambiguity) – In retrospective coherence either the cause (intentioned)
or disposition (outcome) might be found – Retrospective coherence can be from ambiguous
(intentioned) or random (outcomes) actions
• Collaboration as shown is – Alignment of Easy-plausible and Impossible-plausible
(center vertical in slide 3) – Recognizable by strange bedfellows and enemy-of-my-
enemy narratives
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Remapping into different visual
Easy
7 6 5
Un
kno
wn
8 9 4
Imp
oss
ible
1 2 3
Unexpected
Plausible Deliberate
Awareness of dynamic
Ability to manage constraint
Complex domain
Inauthentic disorder
8 6
2 4
9
7
3
1 5
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The Transitory Zone
Able to Manage (Being Social &
Engaging)
Deliberate (Dynamic awareness, incremental steps)
Death & Rebirth
(Disorder)
Managed Innovation
(Complexity)
Un
exp
ect
ed
Im
po
ssib
le
Ea
sy
De
lib
era
te
Unexpected Easy
Impossible Deliberate Plausible Unknown
Plausible Unknown
Ambiguous
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Adding Boundary Cases
• Ritual dissent as a crowdsourcing process – Process = a partially constrained system pattern – RD moves from critiques to a collection of stories
• Recipes as formulaic processes – Intentional coherence, when diligently followed – Understanding what was produced is usually by
retrospective coherence – Convergence is often premature; this may statistically
favor dispositional coherence – This is basic to “Abduction in the Pareto World” – also see Dave’s many comments on Sick stigma
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Cynefin Orientation of Boundary Cases
Disorder
Social Engagement (Exploit)
(Praxis) Probe & Respond
Easy & Recipe
Critique
Complexity Complexity
Limits of cohesion
Limits of agreement
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Expanded Transition Zones
Disorder
(Social Engagement) Exploit
Probes (Gamble, Practice)
Easy Recipe
Critique
Complexity
Casual, Purposeful
Dispositional, Observed
Dispositional, Observed
Casual, Purposeful
Plausible
Unknown
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Explanation of Constraints
• The opposite of the exploit is the gamble
– This is constraints as either/or
– Aka constraint-based thinking
– Shown as higher and lower loops in slide 4
• To accept ambiguity is a different case
– This is the middle way to either/and
– It leads in a different direction than above
– It may be a dive through disorder (revealed later)
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Reorientation in the Transitory Zone
Ambiguous
Being Social & Connecting
Deliberate
Death & Rebirth
(Disorder)
Managed Innovation
(Complexity)
Un
exp
ect
ed
Im
po
ssib
le
Ea
sy
De
lib
era
te
Unexpected Easy
Impossible Deliberate Plausible Unknown
Plausible Unknown
Ret
rosp
ecti
ve C
oh
eren
ce
Inau
then
tic
or
Can
’t a
void
it
Exploit
Gamble
Unknowable
Emergent
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Orientation to the Cynefin Framework
Disorder
(Social Engagement) Exploit
(Praxis) Probe & Respond
Critique
Easy & Recipe
Disorder
Complexity
Complicated
Chaotic
Cynefin
Complexity
Plausible == Exploit
Probe == Gamble
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Orientation in a Knowledge Space
• Exploit is complicated (requires ordered space vice unordered)
• Gamble is chaotic (random, pseudo random, fractals)
• An example of how knowledge may be created
• A brief reflection on my KMWorld 2012 talk – It was an examination of Typology vrs Taxonomy
– and Boisoit’s i-Space
– Feedback on my talk, it was “too theoretical”
• It concluded with a philosophical idea of belief and knowledge correlating with Cynefin domains
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Knowledge Formation
Easy Recipe
Critique
Casual
Dispositional
Dispositional
Casual
Plausible
Emergent
Reflection barrier
Reflection Barrier is Path
Dependency
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@tonyjoyce 16
Concept in my KMWorld 2012 paper
Knowledge (fantasy = too loosely coupled)
Disordered (too many
constraints)
Simple (too few
constraints) Chaoti
c
Com
plicate
d
Complex
Belief (biased = too highly coupled)
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Five Realms of Knowledge
Complex Fuzzy Philosophy
Emergent
Ordered
Inspired by Escher
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Tolerating Ambiguity
• Tolerance of ambiguity leads to 2 new domains
• First, emergence near the limit of cohesion – Bricolage (see
http://www.yiannisgabriel.com/2012/08/on-paragrammes-theory-of-organizations.html?q=bricolage)
– Abduction in Pareto World
• A new layered framework is presented as strata of Ordered, Uncertain and Emergent – Does this layering illuminate the ABIDE criteria?
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Chaotic Affirmative Emergent
Expanding on the Cynefin Framework
Disorder Ambiguous Complex
Unknown Simple Complicated
Fuzzy set
Ordered set
Uncertain
set
Emergent set 12/9/2014 @tonyjoyce 19
Within Emergence
• We also have a different domain that originates near ritual dissent, an affirmation of each other
– A new “way of talking”
– Found in the study of hermeneutics
– Also in informatics of classification; see Bowker & Starr’s “Classification and its Consequences”
• Note, the Fuzzy set – chaotic, disorder and unknown – remains indeterminate until history (retrospective) is apparent
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A Dynamic Knowledge Framework
Unknown
Disorder
Chaotic Affirmative
Ambiguous
Simple Complicated
Complex
Emergent
Cynefin
hook or
catastrophic
fold
(Act/prob
e/react)
act-sense-
respond
Ordered
set
Transitory
submodel
Under
Tension
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Anticipation (appreciative awareness)
Chaotic Affirmative Emergent
The Expanded Cynefin Contexts
Disorder Ambiguous Complex
Unknown Simple Complicated
Easy (able to manage)
Deliberate (awareness of dynamic)
Exploit
Gamble
Intentioned coherence
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Emergence is a Realm of Tension
• A Tension that is intractable – It is the distance across the catastrophic fold – Released in spurts of innovation and paradigm shifts
• It is a permanent feature of social activity because networks are constantly changing
• The change has intensified with modern technology and it is now more visible through this expanded Cynefin framework
• Can be visualized in terms of KM metaphors using C Kurtz’s dimensional form of Cynefin (“eyes”)
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“Three Strands in a Braid: Identity Interaction in Social Software” – Cynthia Kurtz
Catastrophic fold
Emergence (committing + realizing)
Probe-Sense-Respond
Affirmation (selecting + relating)
Act-Sense-Respond
Network
Building
Network
Pruning
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Conclusions
• Collaboration is a form of dispositional coherence
• Bricolage is a distinct form of dispositional coherence
• Affirmation, i.e. the generative aspect of appreciative inquiry, is dispositional coherence
• As we can see in the Dynamic Knowledge Framework, emergence is different from the intentional complexity of Alice Juarreo’s “Dynamics in Action; Intentional Behavior as a Complex System”
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Future Work
• Articulation of a learning practices boundary case
– Kolb’s reflective learning cycle
– Note this is social constructionism
– It need not be grounded to “reality”
• A model of decisions
– (Needs explanation)
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How is knowledge formed?
Unknown
Disorder
Chaotic Affirmative
Ambiguous
Simple Complicated
Complex
Emergent
Kolb learning
loop
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Tony Joyce