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![Page 1: Exploration Physics International, Inc. HAF: An Operational, Event-driven Solar Wind Forecast Model 1 Murray Dryer murray.dryer@noaa.gov.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649e615503460f94b5d573/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Exploration Physics International, Inc.
HAF: An Operational,
Event-driven Solar Wind Forecast Model
1
Murray [email protected]
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
Goal: Improve Space Weather Forecasting
2
Acc
urac
y
0
100%
0%
Forecast Lead Time
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
Geomagnetic Storm Prediction System
3
CoronalModel
EventProxies
Solar WindModel
Near EarthModels
v, n, BIMF
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
VSS = V0 + V1 -
HAF Model Inputs: Ambient Solar Wind
Steady State:
• Source surface (2.5 Rs)• B, v synoptic maps
Maps from:
• SEC (Arge & Pizzo)
• Solar observatories
(NSO, MWO, WSO)
4
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
HAF Model Inputs: Solar Events
Required Input Observation
Start time eg., 20010825 1642
GOES X-ray or metric type II radio event start time
Location, eg., N20 W34 H-alpha or active region report
Initial shock speed, Vs Metric type II radio report or spectra
Duration, GOES X-ray flux temporal profile
5
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
“Fearless Forecast” Study
6
• NOAA/SEC, EXPI, GI/UAF
• February 1997 - present
• Interplanetary shock arrival time (SAT) at Earth
• Ensemble of three models (HAF, ISPM, STOA)
• Benchmark forecast skill
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
“Fearless Forecast” Study
7
Shock Arrival Time ForecastsDuring Solar Cycle 23
0
50
100
150
200
250
1/1
Mo
nth
ly S
SN
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fo
reca
sts
pe
r M
on
th
# Forecasts SEC Monthly SSN
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
“April Fools Day” 2001 Events
FF# Start date/time Vs Location Comment254 20010327 1632 677 N22 E33 M2.2/1N255* 20010328 1240 1000* N18 E02 M4.3/SF256 20010329 1004 1300 N16 W12 X1.7/1N257* 20010330 1559 1850 S10 W90* Blowout?258* 20010330 1620 1600 S10 E115? Blowout?
Events
HAFv.2: Shock will overtake the two previous interplanetary ICMEs, and the combined structure's shock will arrive at 1800 UT, 30 March 2001. SSI = 1.0, and delta(dynamic pressure) = 13.2 nPa.
Forecast #256 issued 29 March 2001, 2055 UT
8
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
Speed
Density
Log(P/P)
Dynamicpressure
3/28/01 4/05/01
“FF” #255-258, issuedMar. 28-30, 2001
9
HAF Model Prediction
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
“April Fools Day” 2001 Event
10
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
“Bastille Day” 2000 Event
11
“Fearless Forecast” issued at 20:31 UT on July 14, 2000:
[Dryer et al., Solar Phys., 2001].
“Strong shock will arrive at 15 UT on July 15, 2000.”
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“Fearless Forecast” Metrics
Observed
Forecast Yes No
Yes hit false alarm
No miss correct
null
Exploration Physics International, Inc. 12
Contingency Table
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“Fearless Forecast” MetricsFeb. 1997 - Oct. 2000
• Success rate > 50 %
• False alarm rate ~ 50%
• Hit/Miss Ratio STOA best for strong shocks HAF best for medium, weak shocks
• Heidke skill score ~ .15 - .20
• RMS error T (SATPRED - SATOBS) ~ 11 - 12 hours
Exploration Physics International, Inc. 13
173 events, 68 observed shocks
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
Solar Cycle 23 - Lessons Learned
14
• CIRs produce shocks.Dec. 25, 1998, 20 UT
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
Solar Cycle 23 - Lessons Learned
• Initial shock speed is the most important input to the SAT prediction.
• SAT forecast skill is best near Central Meridian.
• SAT forecast skill is worst for limb events because Metric Type II speeds are too low.
15
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
Future of Operational, Real-Time, Sun-to-Earth Solar Wind Predictions
16
Increased Customer Support:• Make Advanced Operational Decisions
Improved Forecast Skill:• Assimilate Data
• Predict Bz
Better Customer Collaboration:• Specify Needs
+
=
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
“Fearless Forecast” Web Site
http://gse.gi.alaska.edu
Email: [email protected]
17
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
Metric Type II Speed
V vs. Type II SpeedFebruary, 1997 - October, 2000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Type II Speed, Vs (km/s)
Vs
-Va
ve
,
V (
km
/s)
accelerated
decelerated
62 shocks
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Exploration Physics International, Inc.
• Provides realistic background and event-driven solar wind conditions at L1 and elsewhere.
• Takes in solar observations and event reports.
• Uses “modified kinematic” approach to track solar wind fluid parcels.
• Predicts interplanetary shocks in the global heliosphere.
• Drives downstream empirical and first-principle space weather models.
Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF)Solar Wind Model