Exploitation of Science
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Transcript of Exploitation of Science
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The$Exploita-on$of$Science$
UK$Design$Forum$talk$20mar15:$Uo.Manchester,$Uk.$
$Pdf$and$SlideCast$@$hHp://ianp24.blogspot.com$
$Opinions$expressed$are$my$own$...$
$
$
Prof. Ian Phillips
Principal Staff Engineer ARM Ltd
Visiting Prof. at ...
Contribution to Industry Award 2008
1v0
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... But if we understand how, we could do it better
Today Samsung Galaxy S5
2014 (1yr lifetime)
40yr ago BT Yeoman
c1964-84 (20yr lifetime)
IC Eng’s came from?
SW Eng’s came from?
Research$Does$Get$into$Product$...$
! Products$have$changed$hugely$in$my$life$...$$! Improved:*Technology,*Methods*and*Tools**! Different:*Business*Models*and*Global*Markets**...*ConAnuous,*subtle*change*for*40+*yrs*
*
..."Is"the"Process"fundamentally"different"today?"
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Age of the ... Universe – 13.6Byr
Earth – 4.5Byr Life – 3.5Byr The$First$Exploita-on$of$Science$...$
32,000 yrs got us to this!
! CroFMagnon*Man*(Us!)$–$35,000$yr$ago$$! ‘Developed’*from*HomoFSapien*(Wise*Human)*>100,000*yr*! Mission:*Survive"Nature"(1,000*gen’n)*
! The*Philosophers*–$2,500T1,000$yr$ago*! Pythagoras,*Socrates,*Plato,*Aristotle,*Archimedes,*...*! Mission:*Understanding"Nature"
! The*ScienAsts*–$1,000T500$yrs$ago*! Galileo,*Descartes,*(1000*ad)*! Electricity*F*William*Gilbert*(1600ad)*! Mission:*Manipula?on"of"Nature"
! The*Engineers*–$260$yrs$ago*! Industrial"Revolu?on"(1750:*8*gen’n)*! Mission:*Exploita?on"of"Nature"! Year*0:*ScienceFMeetsFExploitaAon*! Technology*Based*Business*Emerges**
..."Our"BIGEBANG"was"just"260"years"ago!"
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$ $...$State$(s)$and$Time$(t)$are$always$factors$in$this$(Though*not*always*explicit).$
* *...*Not*prescripAve*about*the*choice*of*ImplementaAon*Technology!** *...*Nor*prescripAve*about*Programmability!*
Compute:$To$Evaluate$an$Algebraic$Equa-on$(Model)$...$$Computer: A mechanism to do this repetitively…
! Usually*used*with*analogues*of*realFworld*parameters,*to*predict*realFworld*outcomes.**! Frequently*used*it*to*animate*Models*fast*enough*to*stabilise*a*loop*(RealFAme).*
y=F(x,t,s) IN (x)
Enumerated Phenomena
OUT (y) Information
(Processed Data)
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History:$100BC$T$Hipparchos’s$An-kythera$Early-Mechanical
Computation
Hipparchos c.190 BC – c.120 BC.
Ancient Greek Astronomer,
Philosopher and Mathematician ! A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"Planetary"Posi?ons"
! Technology:""HandEMade"Metal,"HandECut"Gears,""Engraving,"Analogue"! Found*in*the*Mediterranean*in*1900*(Believe*there*might*have*been*10’s)*
$ $ $See:$hHp://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02hz21v$
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History:$1700$T$Graham’s$Orrery$
! A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"Planetary"Posi?ons"(1,800"yrs"aUer"An?kythera!)"! Technology:""FactoryEMade"Metal,"MachineECut"Gears,"Wood,"Analogue"! Inventor:*George*Graham*(1674F1751).*English*ClockFMaker.*
Mechanical Technology
George$Graham
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! A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"Polynomial"Tables"! Technology:"Metal,"Precision"Gears,"Digital"(base"10)"! Too*expensive*for*the*technology*of*the*day*
History:$1837$T$Babbage's$Difference$Engine$Constructed 2000
Late-Mechanical Computation
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History:$1856$T$Amsler’s$Planimeter$Mechanical
Computation
Planimeter 2014 !
! A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"the"Area"of"an"arbitrary"2D"shape"! Technology:"Precision"Mechanics,""Analogue"! Available*today*...*Electronically*enhanced*
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! General"Purpose,"Stored"Program,"Compu?ng"Mechanism"! Technology:"Electronics"(valves),"Digital"(base"2)"! Available*today*...*Enhanced*by*MicroFElectronics*(Mainframe*<=>*Laptop)*
History:$1947$T$Uo.Manchester’s$“Baby”$(ReconstrucAon)*Electronic
Computation
Implementa-ons$are$L
imited$
by$available$Te
chnology!$
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Available$Technology$Limits$Product$Op-ons$...$! The$Technology$and$Tools$available$when$you$start$your$Product$Development$...$
$...$$limit$the$Technology$you$can$u-lise$in$your$Product$!$(duh!)$
! But$is$that$the$whole$story?$(NO)$
! Does$Science$and$Technology$leadTto$a$Product$...$! Was*the*Orrery*an*inevitable*evoluAon*of*Alloying*science?*(NO)*! Or*the*the*Laptop,*the*inevitable*refinement*of*the*invenAon*of*the*Valve?*(NO)*! Is*this*...**
* * * *...*a*liner*process*…*(NO)*$
$$...*NewFTechnology*only*provides*Product*OpAons*(Though*they*may*be*dominant!)**...**Specific*Technologies*may*only*benefit*some*EndFProducts*(or*none!)*
Theory => Science => Technology => Product
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10nm
100nm
1um
10um
100um
App
roxi
mat
e P
roce
ss G
eom
etry
ITRS’99
Tran
sist
ors/
Chi
p (M
)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law
Moore’s$Law:$50$yrs$of$$Technology$Driven$Opportunity$...$
Tran
sist
or/P
M (
K)
X
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Electronic$Systems$Today$
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*...*Older*Markets*remain;*but*inherit*their*current*technology*from*Lead*Markets!*
Business$Opportuni-es$Drive$Technology$Developments$ ... And 21c Products are ‘Smart’ and ‘Connected’
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Main Frame
Mini Computer
Personal Computer
Desktop Internet
Mobile Internet
Mill
ions
of
Uni
ts
Prof
essio
nal !
" C
onsu
mer
1st Era Select work-tasks
2nd Era Broad-based computing for specific tasks
3rd Era Computing as part of our lives
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! They$profitably$sell$what$Customers$(you)$want$to$Buy$! They$focus$on$their$Core$Competencies$in$a$Globally$Compe--ve$Market$! They$avoid$Commodi-sa-on$by$Product$Differen-a-on$…$
! Cost*and*Quality*(by*improving*Process)*..and..*! Improved*BusinessFModels*(which*take*the*Money)**..and..*! New/Improved"Technology*when*it*offers*benefit*(may*be*Expensive*or*Risky)*
! Product)Development)is)a)Cost)(Risk))to)be)Minimised)! Technologies*just*enable*OpAons!*(HW,*SW,*Mechanics,*OpAcs,*Graphene,*etc)**! NewFTechnology*may*cost*more*than*it*delivers*in*Product*Value!*(Including*risk)*! OverFDesign*costs*...*Good*Enough*is*Enough!*! Reuse*saves*…*Cannot*afford*to*reFinvent*the*wheel,*or*the*pursuit*of*excellence.*
*...*Successful*EndFProducts*fund*their*enAre*(RD&I)*ValueFChains**...*Further*development*of*their*Sciences*and*Technologies*will*be*prioriAsed$
Business$–$A$sustainable$Money$Making$en-ty$Businesses have to be Competitive, Money Making Machines …
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! Need:)A$Mechanism$for$enhancing$human$memory$(Camera))! Technology:)...$
! Excellent*Lenses*! Fine*Mechanical*Mechanisms*! ElectroFMechanical*Exposure*Metering*! Metal*(and*some)*PlasAc*Forming*! Manual*Assembly*! PhotoFChemical*Memory*(35mm*Film)*
*
1998$T$Canon$EOS$Rebel$GII$(17yrs$ago)$
35mm Film Camera
System-Level Mechanical Computation
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! Need:)A$Mechanism$for$enhancing$human$memory$(Camera))! Technology:)...$
! Digital*Logic*(CPU+I.O.)*! Sonware*! Memory*(NV*and*RAM)*! Excellent*Lenses*and*Displays*! Analogue*Electronics*(Network*&*GPS)*! Sensors*and*Transducers*(CCD*&*MEM)*! Precision*Mechanics*! MicroFMotors*! Baoeries*and*Energy*Storage*! LEDs*and*Discharge*Tubes*! Precision*forming*of*PlasAcs*and*Metal*! Electronic*Packaging*! RoboAc*Assembly*...*Technology*External*to*the*Product!*
...**All*of*these*Technologies*are*available*to**21c*Businesses*today*...*
2014$T$Canon$EOS$5D$$$(Today)$
Incorporating DIGIC5+ (ARM)
System-Level Computation
Q: So why couldn’t ARM make a camera to compete with Canon?
A: Because Canon has Capabilities in place that we don’t have!
ARM-based Computer
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! Science*F*Demonstrated*Fundamentals;*Predictable,*Encapsulated,*New*
! Technology*F*ScaledFup*Science(s).*Reliable*and*producAve*enough**for*use*in*a*real*Product**or*its*Processes.*May*be**NewFtoFAll,*or*only*NewFtoFYou**(others*may*have*as*a*Capability)*
! Capability*F*Installed*Technology*InFplace*in*business,*ready*for**missionFcriAcal*use*in*a**New*Product*Development.*
! Product*F*Delivered*FuncAonality.**Market*Need,*FuncAonality*CostFEffecAve,*Quality**
The$Capability)Model1$…$“Capabilities are the Bridge between Science and its Exploitation”
Capability Capability Capability Capability
Capability Capability Capability
Concept
KN
OW
N-W
OR
K
Developm
ent - Exploit Capabilities
TRL 1-4
TRL 9
TRL 8-9
TRL 5-9
Tech
nolo
gy
Rea
dine
ss
Leve
ls
1:*Not*described*in*literature.*
Science Science Science Science
Science
Science Science ?-
WO
RK
Technology Technology
Technology ?-w
ork
Research - Enquire, Understand & Establish a Capability
The last stage must be done by Business Itself
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! Short$Term:$From$the$KnownCSet)...*! Refine"what"we"know"(Including*Individual*knowledge,*Team*knowledge,*and*Tools).*! Acquire"what"others"know"(Recruit,*Develop,*Contract,*Licence,*Acquire,*Espionage,*etc)**...*Specific,*internal,*secrecy,*lowFnumber,*highFcost,*confidence*
*
! Longer$Term:$From$the$UnknownCSet$...*! Targeted"Research"F*Specific,*pointFfocus,*commercial*advantage*(CrownFjewels)*! Partnered"Research"F*Specific,*focused,*indirect*commercial*advantage*(ARM*Partners)*! University/Ins?tute"Research"F*Generic,*wide*spectrum,*nonFdifferenAaAng*knowledge*
! ARM$Funded$Research$Projects$! Na-onal$Support$Programs1$(TSB,$H2020,$Research$Councils,$DARPA,$etc)** *...*Generic,*broadFspectrum,*openness,*highFnumber,*lowFcost,*partnering,*sharing,*uncertainty*$
*...*Guided*by*Road*Map*from*longer*term*Business*ObjecAves$
Research$T$Establishes$Capabili-es$... for Development Engineers to use for Product Development
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Development$–$Exploits$Capabili-es$to$Deliver$a$Product$... (Tangible or Intangible) to fulfil a Customer Need and a Business Objective ! Design$is$a$crea-ve$role$within$Development$! Engineers$Deliver)an$effec-ve$TechnicalTProduct$solu-on$...$
! Mee?ng"Func?onal*and*NonEFunc?onal*criteria*...*! Eg:$Quality,$TTM,$Budget,$Reproducibility,$Testability,$Cost,$Power.$$
! Maximising"Product"Differen?a?on;*Minimising*Product*Risk,*Cost*and*Uncertainty*! Using*Available"Capability"(Technology,*Methodology,*Tools*and*KnowFHow)*
! Engineers$Innovate$by$pushing$the$bounds$of$Available$Capabili-es$...$! Using*the*opportuniAes*presented*by*the*ParAcular*Product*Brief*! Trading*between*Available*CapabiliAes*(Eg:*HW,*SW,*Analogue)*! UAlising*his/her*wider*sphere*of*knowledge,*knowFhow*and*experience**...**Not*all*implementaAons*are*‘equally*good’*
*...*InnovaAon*is*(&*will*remain)*a*Fundamental*Engineering*role*
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Conclusions$! CapabiliIes$link$Research$outcomes$to$Products$…$
! Research*establishes*Capabili?es;*Development*uses*them*! Technologies*provide*opAons*for*future*products;*but*not*all**
will*be*valuable*in*all*Products*! CapabiliIes$Limit$a$Companies$Product$Possibili-es$
! Capabili?es*are*InstalledETechnology"modules;*ready*for*Engineers*to*use*to*create*a*Product,"and*for"Business*to*depend*upon*
! CapabiliIes)make$the$Product$Development$Process$predictable$! Technologies*may*not*offer*benefit*in*excess*of*their*wholeFcost*(not*just*$)*! Technology*and*Science*are*opportuniAes*for*‘tomorrow*and*the*day*aner’!*! Innova?ve*Engineers*differenAate*Products,*by*InnovaAve*use*of*CapabiliAes*
! Not$by$the$use$of$risky$Science$or$Technology$(Unless$desperate)$
! The)Successful)ExploitaIon)of$a$Technology)funds$its$whole$lifeTcycle$...$$! WHEN"EndECustomers*buy*Products*incorporaAng/uAlising*the*Technology!*! BUT*EndFCustomers*don’t*buy*Technology,*they*buy*soluAons*to*THEIR*Needs!*! AND*They*don’t*see*or*care*(much)*about*the*Technology*inside*