US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG®

Explaining The Navigation Economics Black Box

Chris Bouquot LRH PCXIN-RED 31 August 2015

Pictures from AEP 2015 (top), Nettles 2015 (bottom left), Norris 2015 (bottom right)

BUILDING STRONG®

OVERVIEW

Present a Problem Statement Provide Examples to Support the Problem Statement Discuss Why Further Investigation of the Problem is Important to USACE Present Some Sources of Problem Propose Solutions

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BUILDING STRONG®

PROBLEM STATEMENT

USACE does not effectively communicate to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public the value of U.S.

navigation system, how it determines this value, and the uncertainty with value.

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BUILDING STRONG®

INCOMPLETE COMMUNICATION

February 2015 - CAWS Advisory Committee

February 2015 – Port Everglade CWRB, Major General Peabody and Gary Waxman (OMB)

August 2015 - IWUB August 2015 - U.S. Sen.

Lamar Alexander (Tenn)

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Figure from Port Everglades Civil Work Review Board (27 Feb 2015)

BUILDING STRONG®

DOES IT MATTER? Developing a sound infrastructure investment plan requires

decision makers to know the

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Estimation and communication of the VTN provided by navigation requires efficient and cost effective Process

Figure from Value to Nation home page; Definition of 4 P’s is from Hughes, 2015

BUILDING STRONG®

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ADMIN REVIEW

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2 3

ATR Nav

PCXs

OMB

PDT Lead

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Plan

PROJECT DELIVERY TEAM

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Non-Stakeholder Public

Congress

Stakeholders IEPR

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Eng

Econ

Env

MSC

HQ

CWRB, OWPR, and

Others

ASA (CW)

USACE A

A

SOURCES OF MISUNDERSTANDING

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A

1. Ineffective Interaction of PDT (A)

Jargon (J)

B B

B B

B

B B

2. Jargon (J) 3. Incomplete Explanation of Methods (B)

BUILDING STRONG®

Current Costs of Waterway Movements

Current Costs of Alternative Movements

Current Commodity Types and Amounts

Define Study Area

Model Waterway

With / Without Project

Condition

Future Costs of Waterway Movements

Future Costs of Alternative Movements

Future Commodity Types and Amounts

Engineering Data

Navigational Analysis Report with change in NED, RED, EQ, and OSE for each alternative

Identification of Problems and Opportunity

Compute Change in

Benefits By Alternatives

Plan Form Data

Environmental Data

Navigation Economics Process

B - Forecasts Unclear explanation

of forecast methods.

7 Figure is based on PA slide presentations by Terry Stratton and Tim Smith

B – NED Confusion over NED

BUILDING STRONG®

Black Box

PROPOSED SOLUTION

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Develop products that improves communication by explaining benefits, uncertainty, and methods for navigation economics to PDT members, decision

makers, and stakeholders.

Input Output PDT

Decision Makers Stakeholders

BUILDING STRONG®

SPECIFIC SOLUTIONS Write a white paper of simplified navigation

terms (J), methods (A, B), and the role of risk and uncertainty play in navigation economics (B - Forecasts).*

Develop presentations that explain navigation simply (J).

Re-work the Inland Navigation NED Manual (B - NED confusion).

PMP template for inland navigation, deep draft, and small boat harbor** (A).

Establish a library of information (A, J, B) .

* Inclusion of uncertainty was idea from Brian Harper, ** PAB recommendation (March 2015)

1. Ineffective Interaction of PDT (A)

3. Incomplete Explanation of Methods (B)

2. Jargon (J)

BUILDING STRONG® 10

EXAMPLE OF PRODUCT Two cut – 15 barge tow animation

Created by Tim Smith,

PCXIN

1. Ineffective Interaction of PDT (A)

3. Incomplete Explanation of Methods (B)

2. Jargon (J)

BUILDING STRONG®

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

USACE can improve the ways it communicates the value it provides, how it determines this value, and the uncertainty regarding its value What is the path forward?

►Permissions to work with website owners (PCX) to make modifications to sites.

►Funding (~$50,000) and time (1 year) to develop the products.

►Assistance (PCXs, IWR, HQ) in ensuring the quality of the products and making sure they are useful.

BUILDING STRONG®

Thank You for Your Time.

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