Expert Group on Gender and Employment Francesca Bettio, University of Siena

Expert Group on Gender and Employment

Francesca Bettio, University of SienaAlina Verashchagina, Sapienza University of Rome

Athens, 1st December 2011

Familiar concepts in need of updating

Added and Discouraged workers Buffers and Substitutes Segregation and Segmentation

Past findings

Early post-war recessions in Europe and the USA:– women’s employment did not (consistently) move pro-

cyclically, mainly due to the protective role of segregation (Rubery 1988).

Early 1980s and late 1990s crisis in Latin America: – female participation moved counter-cyclically as the

added worker effect prevailed over discouragement effects among middle to high income households, less so among poorer families (Sabarwal et al. 2010).

Levelling downward of gender employment gaps. Protection from segregation

Male employment dropped earlier in the recession and faster. It is also picking up faster where recovery is on sight, but lost ground has not been fully regained yet. The gender gap in the employment rates has gone down by 2.5 percentage points from (pre-recession) peak level (-1.6% in FTE gap).

Female unemployment was stickier. The gender unemployment gap was practically cancelled in the depth of the recession but re-surfaced at 0.1 percentage points in 2011Q2.

Segregation has protected female employment. The differences in peak-to-trough employment losses between men and women correlate positively with the level of sectoral segregation across countries, the correlation with occupational segregation being also significant but slightly lower.

Downturn in employment: rates for men, peak levels and trough values

Men

20

40

60

80

Em

ploy

men

t ra

te, %

.

Peak value 89.6 83.5 82.9 81.2 80 79.5 78.2 77.4 77.1 76.7 75.8 75.3 74.7 74.7 74.6 74.4 74.4 74.3 73.3 73 72.8 70.8 70.8 70.1 69.6 68.8 68.6 68 67.2 66.8 66.7 63.9 52.2

Trough value 77.1 79.3 74.9 76.1 75.2 75.1 73.1 73.5 62.6 75 72.3 67.1 55.9 67.2 56.6 63.5 67.2 68.6 69.3 71 69.8 67.2 64.3 67.6 59.9 66.4 61.5 54.5 64.3 57.9 64.0 59.2 51.4

IS NL DK NO CY AT SE UK IE DE CZ EL LV FI EE ES SI PT EU 27 MT LU IT SK FR BG BE TK LT PL HR RO HUFYRO

M

Source: Eurostat, own elaboration

Downturn in employment: rates for women, peak levels and trough values

Women

20

40

60

80

Em

ploy

men

t ra

te, %

.

Peak value 81.1 75.7 74.4 73.2 71.8 70.0 67.5 66.3 66.3 65.9 65.5 65.2 63.2 63.1 62.7 60.8 60.6 60.4 59.2 57.7 56.6 55.8 55.2 55.1 54.3 53.1 52.6 51.1 49.1 47.5 38.7 33.2 24.9

Trough valuer 75.4 73.0 69.5 68.8 68.8 65.6 59.9 58.8 65.8 64.4 60.1 64.4 62.1 60.6 57.9 55.3 59.1 54.8 57.8 55.7 55.5 55.1 51.8 51.6 50.0 52.2 46.3 49.6 45.7 45.7 36.4 32.1 21.6

IS NO DK SE NL FI EE LV AT UK SI DE CY PT LT IE FR BG EU 27 CZ BE LU ES SK RO PL HR HU EL IT MTFYRO

MTK


Employment losses should be measured against potential rather than actual employment levels. Losses for men nearly 3 times as high with peak-to-trough measure, nearly twice as high with deviation from trend measure.


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Men, Trend Women, Trend Men Women

Choice of measure matters

Weakness in strength: levelling downward of the gender pay gap

National evidence from 9 countries

BE, DK, EE, FI, HR, LT,NO, SK, and CY

- The gender wage gap declined in the majority of countries during the first year of the recession.

- Trend factors had some role in this decline. But in the assessment of the national experts the recession may have accelerated the decline.

- Factors driving the GPG decline: non wage components of the pay packet, segregation; role of Equal Pay Policy.

Levelling downward of gender gaps: the importance of changing income roles

Discouraged workers were and remain more frequent among women, but the rise following the recession was more or less proportionately distributed between the sexes. The gender gap decreased slightly.

Unlike men, women increased labour market participation. At the trough point male inactivity was 0.9 percentage points higher than at the peak quarter while female inactivity was 0.1 points lower.

Dual breadwinners households are the vast majority but lost ground in favour of female breadwinners households (from 73.7% to 70%: 2007-8).

Women’s income role clearly in transition from that of secondary (but in no way marginal) workers and that of primary or co-primary earners. This crisis has emphasized the ‘insurance’ role of women’s earnings.

EU27 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR EL HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK2008 0.68 0.12 1.26 3.13 0.12 0.08 0.17 0.06 1.12 0.41 0.94 0.11 0.1 1.76 0.02 2.15 0.65 0.07 1 0.27 0.72 1.35 0.14 0.86 0.32 0.39 0.46 0.152009 0.81 0.1 1.16 3.61 0.44 0.13 0.36 0.1 1.71 0.68 1.47 0.13 0.1 2.15 0.72 2.25 1.32 0.13 2.43 0.13 0.61 1.34 0.18 1.26 0.43 0.77 0.43 0.172010 0.93 0.14 1.02 5.1 0.47 0.22 0.33 0.08 1.73 0.85 1.43 0.09 0.11 2.22 0.77 2.58 1.1 0.07 3.54 0.16 0.79 1.34 0.17 1.72 0.53 0.76 0.48 0.28

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Disc

oura

ged

wor

kers

, % o

f 15

-64

y.o.

MEN

EU27 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR EL HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK2008 1.35 0.14 3.81 2.9 0.85 0.2 0.57 0.14 0.59 1.29 1.02 0.15 0.32 1.6 0.01 5.08 0.47 0.27 1.12 0.37 0.84 1.78 0.37 2.38 0.58 0.61 0.39 0.092009 1.48 0.11 3.71 3.55 1.64 0.22 0.59 0.1 0.81 1.78 1.37 0.17 0.3 1.95 0.26 5.06 0.99 0.7 2.59 0.5 0.9 1.82 0.31 2.98 0.69 1.16 0.45 0.132010 1.57 0.12 3.09 3.9 1.74 0.25 0.58 0.08 0.95 2.19 1.33 0.14 0.34 2.2 0.28 5.41 0.88 0.55 3.17 0.72 0.87 1.7 0.35 3.52 0.8 1.03 0.45 0.13

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Dis

cour

aged

wor

kers

, % o

f 15-6

4 y.

o.

WOMEN


Discouraged workers,in % of population 15-64

Levelling downward of gender gaps: women’s determination to stay

The number of involuntary part-timers grew more for women. In 2010, involuntary part-time rose sharply for men as a way to avoid dismissals. The percentage rise in the share of involuntary part-time was in fact about two points higher for men (+5.8 against +3.8). Nevertheless, given large gender disparities in part-time working, the increase in the number of women’s part-timers was almost double that of men.

The new Buffers or ‘Institutional Segmentation’: temporary employees, men and women

In the downturn firms found it easier to cut employment by failing to renew temporary contracts, while in the recovery they resorted to these contracts in preference to others. As a result temporary contracts declined in the downturn in ratio to total employment but quickly increased after the trough point was reached.

The ups and downs in the share of employees on temporary contracts were rather similar for men and women.

Temporary employment. downturn and recovery

Men

-5

5

15

25

Sh

are

of

tem

po

rary

em

plo

ym

ent,

% .

Share at trough point 19.0 18.9 17.8 13.6 13.1 12.1 12.0 11.1 10.1 9.9 8.7 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 5.5 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.2 0.7

Δ Peak-to-trough -1.5 -3.5 0.5 -0.3 1.6 -0.7 -2.6 -1.1 -1.1 -2.8 -1.5 -0.6 -0.4 -3.2 -0.5 0.9 -0.5 2.8 1.0 0.0 1.7 -0.9 -3.1 0.3 -1.8 -3.5 0.4 1.0 -0.6 -3.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2

2011Q2 20.8 19.4 17.8 13.9 12.1 12.2 12.6 12.6 11.0 12.7 10.8 9.0 12.2 11.5 7.8 7.7 8.5 7.8 6.1 6.6 7.1 6.0 9.002 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.9 3.7 4.2 4.5 1.4

PL ES PT NLFYROM

DE SI FREU2

7SE HR IT IS FI AT DK HU LV BE EL IR NO TK CZ CY LU UK ES SK BG MT LT RO

Women

-5

5

15

25

Sh

are

of

tem

po

rary

em

plo

ym

ent

%

.

Share at trough point 23.1 21.5 19.3 17.8 16.2 15.5 15.4 14.8 14.0 13.4 12.4 11.4 10.7 10.3 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.7 6.5 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.2 4.4 4.1 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.7

Δ Peak-to-trough -4.2 -0.7 -1.1 0.1 -0.8 -2.8 -3.7 -3.9 -1.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.9 0.5 1.6 1.1 -0.8 -2.3 0.2 0.1 -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 0.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.8 3.6 -2.2 -0.2 1.0 -2.1 -0.2 -0.2

2011Q2 23.9 21.3 20.2 16.9 19.2 17.2 18.0 16.9 14.7 13.8 13.0 12.2 10.7 9.3 10.0 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.2 12.7 9.2 8.0 7.0 7.7 5.8 5.0 5.4 6.814 6.4 4.0 3.5 2.1 1.1

ES PL PT NL CY SI FI SE FR DEEU2

7IT HR

FYROM

IR EL NO DK CZ IS BE AT LU HU UK MT LV TK SI ES BG LT RO


The new Buffers: young men and women and male migrants

Most vulnerable groups of workers: young and migrants.

Male migrants from outside the EU recorded the highest employment fallout (peak-to-trough % variations) while outcomes for mobile workers from within the EU appear to differ across countries.

Female migrants were largely spared, especially those from within the EU. Many of them work in the care sector.

Nationality profile of employment losses and gains: men


MEN

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

∆ ER -3.6 -5.3 -8.1 0.6 2.2 2.0 -3.8 -5.2 -8.6 0.9 2.2 2.7 -1.7 -1.5 -2.7 2.0 2.2 5.4 -15.3 0.0 -30.0 9.4 0.0 11.5 -10.0 -19.0 -16.1 0.3 3.4 -1.0 -3.7 -4.2 -5.6 0.8 2.5 1.8

local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra

Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery

EU 27 EU15 DE EE ES UK

UKESEEDEEU27 EU15

Deterioration of working conditions (other than pay) shared by men and women, but different implications

Deteriorations of working conditions also include: delay in wage payments (BG, EE, EL, LV, LT), occupational downgrading (UK), violations of health and safety regulations (LT, SI) or of (normal) working schedules (PL) and trade union rights (TK), pressure and harassment at work (FI, FR), and downright discrimination (PT).

Evidence of curtailment of rights of pregnant women to maternity leave & benefits, and the right to resume job after maternity (EL, PT, IT and CZ). Bad news for fertility.

Men are more vocal about the deterioration of working conditions: Subjective evaluation of the change in working conditions 2008-10

Had to take a reduction in pay

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

BE BG CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR UK HU NL NO PL PT SE SI

%

Had less security in job

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


%

Note: Blue for Men, Red for Women Source: own elaboration on ESS data

Had to work shorter hours

0

10

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60

70


%

Had to do less interesting work

0

10

20

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70


%

Where the gender gap may have increased: unpaid work

Indirect evidence: Pronounced fall in expenditure for routine maintenance goods and services, care services as well as meals and drinks

National evidence for IT, SI, ES, and TK:There is some evidence that the gender gap in the allocation of unpaid work may have gone up during the recession in countries where disparities in unpaid work are especially pronounced (Italy and Turkey)

Beware of the recession tail: fiscal consolidation and the second dip

Source: OECD 2011

The most frequent measures in 19 countries: AT, BG, CZ, DE, EL, FR, FYROM, HU, IE , IS, LI, LV, NL, MT, PL, PT, RO, SE, UK

On the expenditure side: Wage freezes or wage cuts in the public sector (11 countries); Staffing freezes or personnel cuts in the public sector (9 countries); Pension reforms: postponing retirement and/or bringing the age of retirement for women

in line with that for men (8 countries); Cuts and restrictions in care related benefits/allowances/facilities(8 countries); Reduction of housing benefits or family benefits (6 countries); Tightening of eligibility criteria for unemployment and assistance benefits or reductions in

replacement rates (5 countries);

On the revenue side: Tax measures (6 countries); VAT increase (5 countries); Increase in fees for publicly subsidized services (health care fees,

transport fees, others) (2 countries).

Fiscal consolidation and gender equality

Share of GDP affected Countries and measures

Expected repercussions on gender equality/ labour market gaps 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Greece Rationalization of public wage sector bill Disproportionate impact on men, unfavourable 0.9

Public sector downsizing Unfavourable to women, among others 2.4 Rationalization of social benefits Unfavourable to women, among others 1.9

Pension reform Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable Netherlands

Less government subsidies Unfavourable to women, among others 0.3 0.08 0.12 0.19 0.24 Cuts in childcare subsidies Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.24

Portugal Wage cuts and recruitment freeze Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.11 0.36 0.58 0.84

Cuts in family allowances and social benefits Unfavourable to women, among others 0.03 0.05 0.06 VAT increase Unfavourable to women, among others 0.63 1.5 1.56 1.61

United Kingdom 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Reduction in operational budgets Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable n.a.

Wage and staff freeze in public sector Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.19* Contributory employment and support allowance 0.07 0.09 0.12

Housing benefits capping Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.01 0.02 Restrictions in Disability Living Allowance Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.01 0.01

Child benefits freeze Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.03 0.11 0.22 0.24 Increased public pension contributions Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.01 0.08 0.1

VAT increase Unfavourable to women, among others 0.79

In half of the countries that we were able to include in our evaluation exercise the consolidation provisions deemed to entail ‘risks’ of rolling back women’s integration into the labour market on an equal footing represent no less than 1% of GDP in one or more years within the announced consolidation period.

Source: Karamessini (2011), Plantenga and Remery (2011), Ferreira (2011), Fagan and Norman (2011)

Fiscal consolidation: women more at risk?

What levelling downward of employment gaps boils down to

At peak values, just before the recession begun, 10 Member States were above the 65% employment rate mark for women, but the number was down to 6 in the second quarter of 2011 as EE, LV, UK and SI slipped below the 65% mark. In the vast majority of Member States the 70% target for 2020 looks further away now than four years ago.

To move forward

At policy level Review/auditing/monitoring of consolidation or recovery

packages from a gender equality perspective A ‘pink new deal’

Within civil society at large Spread awareness of transition from ‘welfare’ to ‘bankfare’ More literacy in financial matters for women

Expert Group on Gender and Employment Francesca Bettio, University of Siena

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