Experian Automotive Quarterly BriefingExperian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Second quarter 2016...

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Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Second quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations

Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics

Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, VIO

2©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.

Today’s presentationPart one

Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar

Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download

Questions? Contact us at [email protected]

What’s on the Road

VIO by model year, segment, age and market share

U.S. light duty vehicles through June 30, 2016

U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through June 30, 2016Marty Miller

Senior Product Manager, VIO


Q2 2016 Registrations

Market trends

Geographic performance

Manufacturer, make and model share

Loyalty, conquest and defection

Session overviewPart two

Brad Smith

Director, Automotive Market Statistics


U.S. Total Vehicles in Operation = 281.9M

Light Duty

Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans

Cars and GVW Class 1 - 3

Medium & Heavy Duty

Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses,

RVs, Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors

GVW Class 4 - 8

Power Sports

Motorcycles, All-Terrain,

Utility Task, Snowmobiles

*Q2 2016 now includes Puerto Rico


Vehicles in

Operation

What’s on the road today?

Light duty vehicles

6©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.

Experian Public.

Source: Experian

Automotive as of

June 30, 2016 (U.S.

light duty vehicles

only)

U.S. Vehicles In Operation

Q2 2015

255.6millionVehicles on

the road

Q2 2016

264.1millionVehicles on

the road

17.3*

NEWVEHICLES

DEALER

41.3*

USEDVEHICLES

196.7*

NOCHANGES

8.8*

EXIT

Out of Operation

*In millions;

Q2 2015 excludes Puerto Rico


VIO change by model year (in millions)Q2 2015 to Q2 2016

New Sales 17.3M

Out of Operation

8.8M

Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)


The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” is defined as 6 to 12 model year old vehicles, and because of their age, are out of the general OEM manufacturer warranty for any repairs.

These vehicles are within a time period when more part replacement or services are needed (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops which are supplied by aftermarket part manufacturers and retailers.

Defining the Sweet Spot size helps identify the overall market potential, and changes can have implications to those that service it.

“Post Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 13 model years old or older, and identify the models where less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value.

“Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 5 model years old or newer, and identify the incoming models into the Sweet Spot.

The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined


Trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumesVIO by model year (in millions)

86.3M vehicles within “Sweet Spot”

(MY2005 – 2011)

Pre-SweetSpot

Post-SweetSpot



Sweet Spot changingVehicle manufacturer market share age groups



VIO by manufacturer market share



VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share



Vehicle type average ageAverage vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period) andRolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period)



VIO VocationHow light duty commercial vehicles are used



VIO Vocation – Top makes and modelsLight duty vehicles as of Q2 2016(excludes rental / leasing / dealers)



Vehicles in

Operation

What’s on the road today?

Medium and heavy duty vehicles


What’s on the road today? VIO by model yearMedium and heavy duty vehicles

31.2% of VIOMY2010+

68.4% of VIOMY2001+

84.8% of VIOMY1996+

Vehicles in operation

Q2 2016

7.0

million

Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)


Total average ageAverage age by top brand names



Top 10 VIO Market share of VocationMedium and heavy duty vehicles



U.S. Market Overview

What products are selling?

Who’s buying?

Where is it happening?


For the first time since the recession, year over year quarterly volumes decline, down 2.3% from Q2 2015

4.4 M4.5 M

3.8 M

2.5 M

3.0 M3.2 M

3.7 M

4.0 M

4.3 M4.5 M

4.4 M

0.0 M

0.5 M

1.0 M

1.5 M

2.0 M

2.5 M

3.0 M

3.5 M

4.0 M

4.5 M

5.0 M

New

Reg

istr

ati

on

Vo

lum

e (

Millio

ns)

New passenger car / light truck registrations through June 2016


6.9%

58.2%

30.5%

18.8%

-3.7%

-3.9%

-15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55%

Commercial/Taxi

Dealer Manufacturer

Government

Other

Rental/Lease

Retail

% Change from Q2 2015

Q2 ‘15 vs. Q2 ‘16

Retail market is down 3.9% from Q2 2015 with increases in fleet sales providing a cushion to softening consumer demand

Total new vehicle registrations through June 2016


10 states accounted for nearly 60% of retail registrations in the first quarter of 2016

New vehicle registrations

Individual buyers

Q2 2016

Source: Experian Automotive registrations Q2 2016


Most states experienced declines in new vehicle registration as compared to Q2 2015


Individual buyers

Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2016

Source: Experian Automotive registrations Q2 2016


1.50%

1.70%

1.76%

1.93%

2.22%

2.27%

2.39%

2.39%

2.44%

2.65%

2.68%

2.78%

2.83%

7.01%

7.72%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

CLEVELAND-AKRON (CANTON)

PHOENIX (PRESCOTT)

TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA)

ATLANTA

MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE

WASHINGTON, DC (HAGRSTWN)

HOUSTON

SAN FRANCISCO-OAK-SAN JOSE

BOSTON (MANCHESTER)

DETROIT

DALLAS-FT. WORTH

PHILADELPHIA

CHICAGO

LOS ANGELES

NEW YORK

Market Share by Nielsen DMA®

Los Angeles and Detroit were the only two DMAs in the top 15 to experience year over year increases in registration volume

DMA® is a registered service mark of The Nielsen Company. Used under license.


Individual buyers

Q2 2016

Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q1 2016


2.3%

2.6%

2.7%

2.8%

2.9%

3.2%

3.2%

5.5%

5.9%

6.6%

8.2%

9.6%

10.1%

11.4%

16.1%

Mid Range Car - Premium

Small Car - Budget

Sport Car - Touring

Pickup - Small

Van - Mini

Upscale - Near Luxury

SUV - Entry Level

SUV - Lower Mid Range

CUV - Premium

CUV - Mid Range

Mid Range Car - Lower

Mid Range Car - Standard

Small Car - Economy

Pickup - Full Sized

CUV - Entry Level

Top 15 Vehicle Segments

Led by Entry CUV, 10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new individual registrations in Q2 2016

Individual new vehicle registrations Q2 2016


-24.8%

-20.5%

-20.0%

-18.9%

-18.5%

4.7%

6.0%

7.8%

14.1%

26.7%

Alt Power - Hybrid Car

Upscale - Ultra

Sport Car - Upper Premium

Upscale - Luxury

SUV - Premium Large

CUV - Entry Level

Small Car - Budget

SUV - Large

Pickup - Small

CUV - Premium

Q2 2016 % Change from Q2 2015

CUVs and SUV led in year over year growth, while luxury, premium and hybrid segments declined from compared to Q2 2015

Individual new vehicle registrations through June 2016

Minimum 5,000 registrations


0.58%

0.62%

2.02%

2.11%

2.25%

3.36%

3.87%

4.01%

4.11%

8.24%

11.88%

11.92%

12.00%

15.77%

16.20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Tata

Mitsubishi

Mazda

Daimler

BMW

VW

Subaru

Kia

Hyundai

Nissan

Honda

Ford

FCA US LLC

Toyota

GM

Share of Individual Registrations

Top 15 Manufacturers (Q1 2016)

General Motors outsold Toyota by 15k units to lead Q2 2016 market share



2.02%

2.06%

2.08%

2.31%

2.50%

3.13%

3.87%

4.01%

4.11%

5.69%

7.49%

10.79%

10.85%

11.30%

13.14%

Mazda

Lexus

Mercedes-Benz

Dodge

Ram

GMC

Subaru

Kia

Hyundai

Jeep

Nissan

Honda

Chevrolet

Ford

Toyota

Share of Individual Registrations

Top 15 Makes (Q1 2016)

Toyota outsold Ford by over 62k units to lead Q2 2016 brand market share



1.31%

1.37%

1.48%

1.54%

1.63%

1.79%

1.82%

2.25%

2.26%

2.41%

2.42%

2.55%

2.55%

2.84%

2.87%

Chevrolet Equinox

Toyota Tacoma

Nissan Altima

Jeep Wrangler

Ram 1500

Nissan Rogue

Ford Escape

Toyota Camry

Toyota Corolla

Toyota RAV4

Honda CR-V

Chevrolet Silverado 1500

Honda Accord

Honda Civic

Ford F150

Share of New Individual Registrations

Top 15 Models

With year over year sales up over 20%, Ford F150 led all models in market share



Loyalty, Conquest & Defection


Consistent view of activity across all buyers

Captures additions to household fleets

Looks for loyalty first and foremost

Census coverage, findings applicable to dealers of all sizes

Most timely loyalty metric available

Requires an owned vehicle to be registered to another owner

► Creates additional lag in reporting

Registration must occur within 90 days of new vehicle purchase

► Some off lease used vehicles missed due to turn time

Does not capture additions to household fleet

Smaller population, finding not applicable to small dealers

Overview of Loyalty Methodologies

Household Disposal


68.60%

61.40%

28.80%

23.90%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Lo

yalty R

ate

Household Loyalty Trends

Manufacturer Make Model Lender

As vehicle sales decline, loyalty rates dip

Household Methodology

New to New

Through May 2016


67.1%

59.9%

27.6%

22.5%

61.4%

54.0%

21.1%

15.4%

54.3%

42.6%

13.3%

3.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Manufacturer Make Model Lender

New Certified Used Non-Certified Used

New buyers are the most loyal to their brands, followed buy Certified Used and Non-Certified Used


June 2015 – May 2016


48.3%

54.0%

56.8%

57.4%

61.1%

61.5%

63.4%

64.1%

65.2%

65.7%

68.6%

69.0%

69.6%

71.8%

71.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Mazda

Tata

Porsche

VW

BMW

Hyundai

Nissan

Kia

Honda

Daimler

FCA US LLC

Toyota

Subaru

Ford

GM

Manufacturer Loyalty Rate (Household)

Manufacturer Loyalty Rates

General Motors edged Ford to lead all manufacturers in repurchase loyalty


New to New

June 2015 – May 2016

Minimum 5,000 RTM


56.8%

57.0%

61.1%

61.5%

61.6%

61.8%

62.3%

62.8%

63.3%

64.1%

65.0%

65.8%

65.8%

69.6%

70.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Porsche

Cadillac

BMW

Hyundai

Lexus

Ram

Lincoln

Nissan

Honda

Kia

Toyota

Mercedes-Benz

Chevrolet

Subaru

Ford

Make Loyalty Rate (Household)

Make Loyalty Rates (Top 15)

Ford led all brands with 70.8% of returning owners buying another Ford vehicle


New to New

June 2015 – May 2016

Minimum 5,000 RTM


40.40%

40.80%

41.00%

41.10%

42.10%

42.20%

42.60%

43.20%

43.20%

43.70%

44.30%

44.60%

46.30%

46.70%

50.30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Cadillac Escalade

Acura RDX

Hyundai Genesis

Ram 3500

Subaru Forester

Kia Soul

Cadillac SRX

Chrysler Town & Country


Subaru Outback

Lincoln MKX

Land Rover Range Rover

Lincoln MKZ

Ford F150

Ram 1500

Model Loyalty Rates (Household)

Model Loyalty Rates (Top 15)

Ram 1500 led all models with a 50.3% model loyalty rate


New to New

June 2015 – May 2016

Minimum 5,000 RTM


When loyalty does not exist a conquest / defection relationship is present

Conquest is assessed against the purchased vehicle / vehicle attribute

Defection is assessed against the owned vehicle / vehicle attribute

Conquest / defection ratio is the number of conquests divided by the number of defections

Conquest / defection net is the number of conquests less the number of defections

Conquest / Defection Metrics


0.64

0.74

0.78

0.78

0.84

1.03

1.10

1.13

1.16

1.23

1.43

1.43

1.49

1.70

3.48

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

GM

Toyota

Ford

Mitsubishi

Honda

Nissan

Hyundai

Volvo

FCA US LLC

VW

Mazda

BMW

Daimler

Kia

Subaru

Manufacturer Conquest / Defection Ratio

For every customer lost, Subaru gains nearly 3.5 new customers from other brands


New to New

June 2015 – May 2016

Minimum 5,000 RTM


0.4

0.67

0.69

0.8

0.84

0.88

1

1.1

1.16

1.22

1.44

1.51

1.7

1.81

3.48

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Dodge

Chevrolet

Toyota

Ford

Honda

Volkswagen

Nissan

Hyundai

GMC

Lexus

BMW

Mercedes-Benz

Kia

Jeep

Subaru

Make Conquest / Defection Ratio

Small and mid-size brands are gaining owners while the larger, more established brands struggle to maintain their owner base


New to New

June 2015 – May 2016

Minimum 5,000 RTM

Top brands based on RTM


0.48

0.61

0.68

0.71

0.81

0.82

0.84

0.88

0.92

0.96

0.99

1.11

1.13

1.14

1.15

1.50

1.78

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

Toyota Camry

Toyota Corolla

Nissan Altima

Honda Accord


Honda Civic

Chevrolet Equinox

Ford Explorer

Ford Escape

Ford Fusion

Hyundai Sonata

Ford F150

Toyota RAV4

Honda CR-V

Toyota Tacoma

Honda CR-V

Toyota RAV4

Model Conquest / Defection Ratio

Import utility vehicles gain more new owners as sedans fall out of favor among new buyers


New to New

June 2015 – May 2016

Minimum 5,000 RTM

Top models based on RTM


Full Size Truck

Market Analysis


Full Size Pickup Competitive Share

28.9%

32.6%

11.0%

18.5%

9.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Ford F150 GMC Sierra 1500 Ram 1500 Toyota Tundra

Individual new vehicle registrations through June 2016

Total share among models listed = 100%


Full Size Pickup Model Loyalty

44.00%

49.80%

42.10%

52.30%

33.80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Model Loyalty Trend

Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Ford F150 GMC Sierra 1500 Ram 1500 Toyota Tundra


-6,006

491

8,962

50,183

-8,054

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

ChevroletSilverado

1500

FordF150

GMCSierra1500

Ram1500

ToyotaTundra

Conquest / Defection Net

0.91.0

1.2

2.2

0.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

ChevroletSilverado

1500

Ford F150 GMCSierra1500

Ram 1500 ToyotaTundra

Conquest / Defection Ratio

Full Size Pickup Conquest and Defection Metrics


New to New

June 2015 – May 2016

Model level metrics

Ram 1500 excludes Dodge Ram


U.S. vehicles in operation have increased to 264.1 million units

86.3 million vehicles fall into the aftermarket “sweet spot”

Nearly one-quarter of passenger cars / light trucks on the road were manufactured by General Motors

New registration volumes fell in Q2 for the first time since the recession

► Softening retail market is being offset with increases in fleet sales

Retail registration volumes were down as compared to Q2 2015 in all by 9 U.S. states

Entry level CUV remained popular with consumers controlling just over 16% of the market

General Motors outsold Toyota by 15k units to lead manufacturer market share

► Toyota outsold Ford to lead all brands

General Motors led in manufacturer loyalty

► Ford was tops in brand loyalty

Ram 1500 had highest model to model loyalty rate

Summary of Todays Presentation


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Experian Automotive

Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar

Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download

Questions? Contact us at [email protected]

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