Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing• Aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any...
Transcript of Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing• Aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any...
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Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing First quarter 2018 automotive market share trends and registrations
Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager and Industry Consultant
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Today’s presentation
Questions? Contact us at [email protected]
What’s on the Road
Marty MillerSenior Product Manager, VIO
VIO by model year, segment, age and market share
U.S. light duty vehicles through March 31, 2018
New, Used and other market changes
Industry news analysis
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U.S. and Canada total Vehicles in Operation = 317.6M
Light DutyPassenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans
Cars and GVW Class 1 – 3
Medium & Heavy DutyLarge Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs,
Cement Trucks, Semi-TractorsGVW Class 4 - 8
Power SportsMotorcycles, All-Terrain,
Utility Task, Snowmobiles
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What’s on the road today?Light Duty Vehicles
Vehicles in Operation
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Source: Experian as of March 31, 2018
(U.S. light duty vehicles only)
U.S. Vehicles In Operation – a 12 month viewQ1 2017
268.3millionVehicles on
the road
Q1 2018272.1millionVehicles on
the road
17.0*
NEWVEHICLES
DEALER
42.5*
USEDVEHICLES
199.4*
NOCHANGES
13.2*EXIT
Out of Operation
*In millions; U.S. totals include Puerto Rico
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U.S. VIO change by model year (in millions)Q1 2017 to Q1 2018
Current 20Model Years
86.1% of VIO
Current 25Model Years
94.6% of VIO
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
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U.S. VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
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U.S. VIO by manufacturer market share
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
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U.S. VIO Average Age for all vehicles and current 20 MYs
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
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Cylinder market share and 20 years of Turbo/Supercharged
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
All model years
Current 20 model years
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Cylinder Percentage of Coverage by Model Year and HP
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
“Other” Cylinder ranges hidden
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• 6 to 12 model year old vehicles• Aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any repairs• Likely require more part replacement & services (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that
may be performed by aftermarket service shops using parts from aftermarket part manufacturers• Sizing the Sweet Spot helps identify overall market potential and changes can have implications to those
that service it
The Aftermarket “Sweet Spot”
• 13 model years old & older• Less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value
“Post Sweet Spot” vehicles
• 5 model years old & newer; many covered by the vehicle’s manufacturer warranty• Identifies models coming into the Sweet Spot
“Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles
The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined
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U.S. trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumesVIO by model year (in millions)
31.1% vehicles within “Sweet Spot”
(MY2007 – 2013)
Pre-SweetSpot
Post-SweetSpot
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
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U.S. Sweet Spot vehicles – domestic vs import brands
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
Pre-SweetSpot
Post-SweetSpot
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Volumes and market share
New and Used Vehicles
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New vs Used vehicle registrations 1st quarter trend
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
New Registrations
Used Registrations
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New vehicle registrations for the 1st quarter - Manufacturer
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
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New vehicle registrations for the 1st quarter – Vehicle Type
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New vehicle registrations for the 1st quarterTop Makes and Models
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
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New vs Used vehicle registrations demographic generation1st quarter trend
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
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Ford to stop selling sedansTariffs – who might be affected?
Automotive Market News
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Ford sedan new registrations trend
Source: Experian Automotive new registrations by calendar year
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Measure loyalty of Ford sedan owners and view types of vehicles they purchase upon disposal of Ford sedans
Source: Experian Automotive Loyalty Disposal New to New transactions
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Measure loyalty of Ford sedan owners and Models they buy
Source: Experian Automotive Loyalty Disposal New to New transactions
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Tariffs – Where are the newest vehicles made?
Source: Experian Automotive April 2017 – Mach 2018 light duty, new registrations
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• Total light duty VIO continues to grow to 272.1 million in the U.S. market
• VIO market share for GM and Ford continues to decline as older vehicles move out of operation
• Sweet Spot has stopped declining and has started on its growth spurt that is expected to continue for several years
• New and Used vehicle registrations for the first quarter have dipped a little, though still are above 2015 figures
• Cross overs registrations of new vehicles continue to increase in sales over prior time periods
• Millennial buyers have increased and are now the 2nd
largest buying generation within the U.S. market
Summary
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Today’s presentation
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