Experian Automotive Quarterly Automotive Quarterly Briefing Fourth quarter 2016 automotive market...

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  • Experian Public

    Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Fourth quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations

    Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics

    Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

  • 2 Experian Public

    Todays presentationPart one

    Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar

    Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download

    Questions? Contact us at Auto@experian.com

    Whats on the Road

    VIO by model year, segment, age and market share

    U.S. light duty vehicles through December 31, 2016

    U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through December 31, 2016

    Marty Miller

    Senior Product Manager, VIO

  • 3 Experian Public

    Q4 2016 Registrations

    Market trends

    Geographic performance

    Manufacturer, make and model share

    Loyalty, conquest and defection

    Session overviewPart two

    Brad Smith

    Director, Automotive

    Market Statistics

  • 4 Experian Public

    U.S. Total Vehicles in Operation = 283.8M

    Light Duty

    Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans

    Cars and GVW Class 1 - 3

    Medium & Heavy Duty

    Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs,

    Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors

    GVW Class 4 - 8

    Power Sports

    Motorcycles, All-Terrain,

    Utility Task, Snowmobiles*Q4 2016 includes Puerto Rico

  • 5 Experian Public

    Whats on the road today?

    Light Duty Vehicles

    Vehicles in Operation

  • 6 Experian Public

    Source: Experian

    Automotive as of

    December 31, 2016

    (U.S. light duty

    vehicles only)

    U.S. Vehicles In Operation

    Q4 2015

    258millionVehicles on

    the road

    Q4 2016

    266millionVehicles on

    the road

    17.3*

    NEWVEHICLES

    DEALER

    41.9*

    USEDVEHICLES

    198.2*

    NOCHANGES

    9.3*

    EXIT

    Out of Operation

    *In millions;

    Q4 2016 includes Puerto Rico Q4 2015 does not

  • 7 Experian Public

    VIO change by model year (in millions)Q4 2015 to Q4 2016 New Sales 17.3M

    Out of

    Operation

    9.3M

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

  • 8 Experian Public

    Four cylinders dominate U.S. roadsFuel efficient, technology and more HP

  • 9 Experian Public

    VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

  • 10 Experian Public

    VIO by manufacturer market share

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

  • 11 Experian Public

    VIO trend by quarter with estimated projectionProjections based on current consumer patterns

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

  • 12 Experian Public

    The aftermarket Sweet Spot is defined as 6 to 12 model year old vehicles, and because of their age, are out of the general OEM manufacturer warranty for any repairs.

    These vehicles are within a time period when more part replacement or services are needed (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops which are supplied by aftermarket part manufacturers and retailers.

    Defining the Sweet Spot size helps identify the overall market potential, and changes can have implications to those that service it.

    Post Sweet Spot vehicles are defined as 13 model years old or older, and identify the models where less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value.

    Pre Sweet Spot vehicles are defined as 5 model years old or newer, and identify the incoming models into the Sweet Spot.

    The aftermarket Sweet Spot overviewPost and Pre Sweet Spot defined

  • 13 Experian Public

    Trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumesVIO by model year (in millions)

    85M vehicles within

    Sweet Spot

    (MY2005 2011) Pre-Sweet

    Spot

    Post-Sweet

    Spot

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

  • 14 Experian Public

    Sweet Spot changingManufacturer market share by age groups

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

  • 15 Experian Public

    Sweet Spot vehicles, where are they?Index Sweet Spot to total VIO count by state

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

  • 16 Experian Public

    Top 10 Sweet Spot commercial vehiclesVocation VIO

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

  • 17 Experian Public

    Whats on the road today?

    Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks

    Vehicles in Operation

  • 18 Experian Public

    Whats on the road today? VIO by model yearMedium and heavy duty vehicles

    32.7% of VIO

    MY2010+

    68.3% of VIO

    MY2001+

    83.8% of VIO

    MY1996+

    Vehicles in

    Operation

    Q4 2016

    7.1 million

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)

  • 19 Experian Public

    Market share by GVW Class and Fuel TypeMedium and heavy duty vehicles

    GVW Class Fuel Type

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)

  • 20 Experian Public

    High level Vocation market shareMedium and heavy duty vehicles

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)

  • Experian [Public, Confidential, Internal, Restricted choose the appropriate category]

    U.S. Market Overview

    New registration totals Year over year changes in performance Share by sales category Impact of demographics on purchasing behavior Share across geographies and vehicle segments Brand leaders

  • 22 Experian Public

    16.02

    13.18

    10.15

    11.62

    12.70

    14.31

    15.27

    16.2617.12 17.30

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    New

    Veh

    icle

    Reg

    istr

    ations (

    Mill

    ion

    s)

    Annual New Registrations

    U.S. passenger car and light truck surpassed 17 million units for the second consecutive year

    New vehicle registrations

    All Sales Categories

    Through December 2016

  • 23 Experian Public

    -17.72%

    -23.05%

    14.56%

    9.26%

    12.65%

    6.73% 6.52%5.29%

    1.03%

    -25%

    -20%

    -15%

    -10%

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    % Y

    OY

    Cha

    ng

    e

    Year over Year Change in New Vehicle Registrations

    Gains in annual new vehicle registrations have been steadily declining since 2012

    New vehicle registrations

    All Sales Categories

    Through December 2016

  • 24 Experian Public

    0.09%

    0.91%

    5.59%

    13.69%

    0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

    Retail

    Rental/Lease

    Commercial/Taxi

    Government

    Year Over Year Change

    2015 vs. 2016 Change by Sales Category

    Retail registrations were nearly unchanged from 2015, but fleet categories experienced significant gains

    New vehicle registrations

    All Sales Categories

    Through December 2016

  • 25 Experian Public

    4.35%

    17.18% 17.17%

    21.59%

    20.19%19.52%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

    % N

    ew

    In

    div

    idu

    al R

    eta

    il R

    eg

    istr

    ations

    Distribution of New Individual Retail Registrations

    The majority of new vehicle buyers in the U.S. are 45 years of age or older

    New individual vehicle registrations

    Through December 2016

  • 26 Experian Public

    51.59%13.86%

    25.11%

    3.64%

    3.57%

    13.07%

    10.57%

    16.72%

    11.98%

    11.71%

    18.22%

    10.52%

    0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

    $1,000,000+

    $750,000 - $999,999

    $450,000 - $749,999

    $350,000 - $449,999

    $250,000 - $349,999

    $200,000 - $249,999

    $160,000 - $199,999

    $100,000 - $159,999

    Less than $100,000

    Distribution of New Individual Registrations by Estimated Home Value & Vehicle Class

    Distribution of New Individual Registrations by Estimated Home Value

    Grand Total Non-Luxury Luxury Exotic

    Estimated home value is a strong predictor of vehicle purchase activity within the Exotic and Luxury segments

    New individual vehicle registrations

    Through December 2016

  • 27 Experian Public

    2.39%

    2.46%

    2.65%

    2.92%

    3.05%

    3.22%

    3.42%

    3.55%

    3.60%

    4.27%

    0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

    Striving Single Scene

    Boomers and Boomerangs

    Town Elders

    Silver Sophisticates

    No Place Like Home

    Digital Dependents

    Unspoiled Splendor

    Fast Track Couples

    Aging in Place

    Aging in Aquarius

    Non-Luxury

    Experians Mosaic lifestyle segmentation is also an excellent predictor of vehicle purchase activity

    2.34%

    2.76%

    3.33%

    3.69%

    3.79%

    4.60%

    4.61%

    5.01%

    7.69%

    12.67%

    0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

    Golf Carts and Gourmets

    Couples with Clout

    Fast Track Couples

    Generational Soup

    Kids and Cabernet

    Cosm