Learning Probabilistic Models: An Expected Utility Maximization
Expected utility is always used as a heuristic
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Expected utilityis always used as aheuristic
Konrad Talmont-KaminskiMarie Curie-Sklodowska U., Poland
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Line of argument
Problem with bounded rationalityDual systems of reasoningWhat is a heuristic?Expected utility as a heuristic
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H. Simon Reason in Human Affairs, 1983
Bounded rationality
Processes satisficing not maximisingMethods context-dependentReasoning consists of heuristics
All reasoning?
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Heuristics all the way up?
What about logical reasoning?What about scientific reasoning?Does not look like heuristicsBut…
Simon’s explanation of discovery of Boyle’s Law
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J. EvansK. FrankishS. SlomanK. StanovichD. Kahneman& others
Dual reasoning
System 1Heuristics
Intuitive, quick, innate, automatic
System 2Real reasoningLogical, slow, learned, conscious
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Kahneman’s system 1
Simple heuristicsAnchoring & adjustment, representativeness, availabilityDescriptiveFocus on errors producedNecessitated by empirical data
But Gigerenzer’s critique
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Kahneman’s system 2
Logical reasoningUtility theory, etc.Descriptivebut also normativeNecessitated by desire to maintain classical norms of rationality &Need to explain ‘system 2’ reasoning
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Expected utility
Paradigmatic exampleIf EU functions as heuristic, (plausibly) all reasoning doesEU does not function as Kahneman heuristicNeed to go back to Simon’s concept
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Simon
Not necessarilyNot necessarilyNot necessarilyNot necessarily
Kahneman
IntuitiveInnateQuick
Automatic
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Simon’s heuristics
Very broad categoryKahneman examplesBehavioural adaptationsScientific reasoningIn danger of becoming vacuousOnly useful if it supports substantive generalisations
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Bill WimsattReengineering Philosophy for Limited Beings, 2007
Common traits of heuristics1. Fallible2. Efficient3. Systematically biased4. Problem-transforming5. Purpose relative6. Descended from other
heuristics
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EU as heuristic?
EU formalism does not look like a heuristicBut how is EU applied in real situations?Using simplifying assumptionsNeed to consider formalism+assumption
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Traits of EU+assumptions
1. Fallible2. Efficient3. Systematically biased4. Problem-transforming5. Purpose relative6. Descended from other
heuristics
?
?
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Heuristics all the way up
EU functions as a heuristicMaximising formalism situated in satisficing methodologySame phenomenon in other cases?Kahneman’s ‘system 2’ not descriptiveProbably not primitively normative, either
H. MercierD. SperberWhy do Humans Reason,BBS forthcoming
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Conclusions
It is heuristics all the way upKahneman’s conception of heuristics very limitedSimon’s conception much broader and more usefulNeed to go back to Simon
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Thank you
Konrad Talmont-KaminskiIn a Mirror, Darkly: How the Supernatural Reflects Rationality (forthcoming)