Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Migration, crisis and the

‘discourses of discontent’ in post-communist society

Charles WoolfsonREMESO, Institute for Research on

Migration, Ethnicity and Society, Linköping University

Structure of Presentation

1. ‘Exit’, ‘voice’ and ‘loyalty’

2. The crisis of post-communist neo-liberalism

3. Responses to the crisis - ‘discourses of discontent’

4. Failure of ‘voice’ and renewed ‘exit’ –

a ‘second surge’ of migration from East to West?

Exit,Voice and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and

States Albert O. Hirschman, 1970.

• Disappointment of expectations as the quality of services in an organisation deteriorates

• ‘Exit’ – leave the organisation • ‘Voice’ - expression of dissatisfaction - ‘general

protest addressed to anyone who cares to listen’• ‘Loyalty’ - confounding factor– tends to delay

‘exit’ and legitimise ‘voice’• Both ‘exit’ and ‘voice’ can be ‘recuperative

mechanisms’ allowing organisational recovery• ‘Voice’ and ‘exit’ can also work together to

reinforce organisational failure rather than recovery

‘The boom’

Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2008

• Lithuania’s economic miracle continues unabated. With one of the highest growth rates in Europe and a marked decrease in unemployment, the country now enjoys the benefits of reforms implemented during the 1990s.

• EU accession in 2004 further bolstered the country’s continuing economic miracle.

Source http://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/fileadmin/pdf/Gutachten_BTI_2008/ECSE/Lithuania.pdf

Corporate taxes in the selected countries, 2004: 11 lowest rates of

taxation (percent)

Source: UNCTAD 2004, World Investment Report 2003, Geneva 78

The ‘Baltic Tigers’ GDP Growth Rates 2006

Loans to non-financial enterprises and households

Source: Bank of Lithuania, Financial Stability Review, 2006 from Rainer Kattel Financial Fragility in the Baltic States

Global Property Guide, 2007

Total social protection expenditures as % of GDP in Eastern Europe

Expenditure on social protection as % GDP

32.9%

13.3%

‘The Bust’

The ‘Hard Landing’ – a foreseeable disaster

Real GDP growth rate compared to previous year

GDP 2009 % change compared with the same

quarter of the previous year

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Estonia -15.0 -16.1 -15.6 -9.5

Latvia -18.5 -17.0 -19.2 -17.1

Lithuania  -15.3 -16.6 -14.7 -13.2

source: Eurostat PEEIs http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-07042010-BP/EN/2-07042010-BP-EN.PDF

Construction output 2009 – annual variation % change compared with the same quarter of the previous year

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Estonia -31.3 -28.3 -28.5 -25.7

Latvia -29.7 -32.4 -36.8 -38.5

Lithuania -42.8 -48.0 -49.3 -52.3

Volume of retail trade Sep 09 – Feb 10 % change compared with the same month of

the previous year Sept 09

Oct 09

Nov 09

Dec 09

Jan10

Feb10

Estonia -21.3 -18.6 -21.2 -16.0 -9.0 -7.2

Latvia -30.5 -28.6 -30.1 -30.1 -16.0 -13.3

Lithuania -25.6 -24.7 -27.5 -26.7 -16.8 -17.1

Household consumption expenditure 2009 % change compared to same quarter of

2008

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Estonia -16.5 -19.4 -19.9 -18.2

Latvia -18.3 -23.5 -25.6 -21.7

Lithuania -14.5 -16.9 -17.7 -19.0

Source: Eurostat PEEIs http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-17032010-AP/EN/3-17032010-AP-EN.PDF

Total hourly labour costs Q4 2009 compared to same quarter of 2008

Unemployment in the Baltic States: by quarter 2009/2010

source: Statistics Lithuania http://www.stat.gov.lt/en/news/view?id=8612&PHPSESSID=b76ba862ad603ba09ac9822e498ca4ec

Percentage of part-time workers in employed population

2008 Q2/ 2009 Q2

IMF Global Economic Outlook April 2010

• Economies that faced the crisis with unsustainable domestic booms that had fueled excessively large current account deficits (Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania) and those with vulnerable private or public sector balance sheets (Hungary, Romania, Baltics) are expected to recover more slowly.

Lithuania 16 January 2009

Protest against crisis measures‘Teargas and truncheons’

‘Voice’• Unfolding ‘narratives of resistance’ or

‘discourses of discontent’ from below• Addressed to ruling authorities and posing

incompatible (?) questions about the new social order (post-communism).

• A condensed ‘telegraphy of protest’ - news reports, slogans on banners and placards, protest manifestos and declarations, voices on the street.

• Issues of fairness and social justice and perceived betrayal of expectations

16 January 2009 Protesters gather outside parliament

Prime Minister – don’t make your wallet fuller using money taken away from our

children

Union Confederation leaders

Supporters listening

Our power is in being united! For workers’ rights!

For the Lithuanian worker – a European salary

Jokers out from Parliament!Freedom for word and press!!!

Who is the president, parliament and government serving?

A.Brazauskas – why have you stopped progressive taxation?

The parliament are thieves

Let’s tax ‘fart’ coming out of Parliament !!

Stop business collapse!

‘Double patriotism’ – Lithuanian flag and Lithuanian basketball flag

Waiting for the ‘right’ moment…

The ‘ extreme right’

Demonstrators deputation asks to meet with Prime Minister

Hammering on the door of the parliament

Anger

Snowballs, eggs and rocks

Fulfilling their ‘historic mission’

The dogs

http://www.flickr.com/photos/cinamonas/3202692521/

Fear

No Fear!

Load up, load up, load up with rubber bullets !

Teargas on Independence Square

Special Forces

Can this be Lithuania?

A ‘rioter’

Discourses of discontent

Why are you unhappy?

‘I paid so much taxes that this is all I have left’ – holds up plastic bag of white ‘cent’ coins.

‘This is not what we imagined. We imagined a completely different Lithuania. All people want justice.

‘Muted’ voices

“Barefoot policemen – the nation is in danger”

Firefighters - to the rescue…

Mothers and babies protest benefit cuts

‘Silenced’ protester

‘Exit’and the end of loyalty

Cumulative outflows of EU8 citizens into EU15 Member States (2004-2007)

% of Working Age Population of Individual EU8 Countries

Source: Francesca D'Auria, Kieran Mc Morrow and Karl Pichelmann, Economic impact of migration flows following the 2004 EU enlargement process: A model based analysis.

Emigration and Immigration 1990-2006

Source: International Migration of Lithuanian Population 2006, Statistics Lithuania

Lithuania official migration statistics 2001-2008

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

7 253 7 086 11 032 15 165 15 571 12 602 13 853 17 015

Source: Statistics Lithuania

NB. 60% underestimate of true figure suggests that actual figure for 2008 equals the peak the 2005 post-EU accession surge.

“In the spiritual sense, we have a lot of people disappointed with their authorities and the state, citizens who believe in nothing, and we must breathe self-confidence and trust in a common Lithuanian future into these citizens”. A. Kubilius, Prime Minister of Lithuania, April 2009.

http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/22716/

The end of ‘loyalty’

Lithuania1991 76%2009 50%

Change -26%

Lithuania2009 48%

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7824942.stm

More ‘exit’ after ‘voice’?

• ‘Double failure’ of ‘voice’ - organised social dialogue/protest

- muted ‘discourses of discontent’

• Systemic ‘shock’ / end of ‘loyalty’

• Renewed migratory ‘exit’ (silent protest)

• ‘Internal exit’ (populism and xenophobia?)