Exit Polls Around the World
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Transcript of Exit Polls Around the World
Exit Polls Around the World
Mitofsky International
Informs NYMay 17, 2006
Warren Mitofsky
2004 U.S. PROJECTIONS
Projections for 124 races
51 president
34 senate
11 governor
7 statewide house
20 referenda
And for 23 Democratic Primaries and a Caucus
THE DATA
• Sampled 50 states + DC• Interviewed 60 to 100+ voters in 1,469
precincts – over 110,000 interviews • Interviewed 5,800 absentee voters in 13
states before election day• Collected vote returns from 2,985 sample
precincts• Received vote by county from the
Associated Press
THE ESTIMATES
• Exit polls – interviews with voters in
sample precincts
• Quick counts – vote returns in
sample precincts
• County returns
All our projections were all correct !
All NEP members’ projections were all correct !
WE DID ONE MORE THING---
We provided analysis of issues and identified the make-up of the constituencies supporting each candidate.
We did this for all 124 races and for the nation as a whole.
Edison/Mitofsky Worked for NEP
Edison Media Research
Mitofsky International
National Election Pool
ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, NBC News
WHY DO NEWS ORGANIZATIONS DO IT?
• Transfer of power – electing a U.S. President is the biggest story in the free world
• Legitimize television news – in the early days television was viewed as only entertainment
Recent Exit Polls in Emerging Democracies
Recent Exit Polls in Emerging Democracies
Moldov Philippines New Delhi UkraineTaiwan VenezuelaPalestine ZimbabweBelarus Georgia
Recent Exit Polls in Other Countries
Recent Exit Polls in Other Countries
France AzerbaijanGermany BelarusBritain ItalyIsrael
• Credibility of a new government depends on the belief in a transparent election
• Official counts are not always believable
• Exit polls are the first word on the transfer of power in a democracy
• Credibility of a new government depends on the belief in a transparent election
• Official counts are not always believable
• Exit polls are the first word on the transfer of power in a democracy
NOTABLE PROJECTIONSNOTABLE PROJECTIONS
• 1988 Chile, Presidential referendum
• 2004 Belarus, Presidential referendum
• 2004 Venezuela, Presidential referendum
• 2004 Ukraine, Presidential 1st run-off
• 2000 U.S., Presidential election
FREE & FAIR ELECTIONFREE & FAIR ELECTION
• It does not mean – Error Free
• It means – Errors are Random
FREE & FAIR ELECTIONFREE & FAIR ELECTION
Assurances may come from ….– Unbiased free press
– Unbiased electoral observers
– Independent projections
All projections are
not equal !
When Exit Polls and Official Result Differ
• Established Democracies
“What went wrong with the exit poll?”
• New Democracies
“Is the official result wrong?”
Rule # 1Rule # 1
The Pollster is Not Partisan
(Ignore partisan polls)
Rule # 2Rule # 2
The projection must be reported promptly by
unbiased media(Ignore delayed reports
and/or biased source)
Rule # 3Rule # 3
Methods used for conducting the exit poll or quick count must be…–Generally accepted as good
practice.
–Methods must be disclosed
Methods must be disclosed before the election.
Otherwise there can be no credibility for the results.
Methods must be disclosed before the election.
Otherwise there can be no credibility for the results.