Exit Polls Around the World

Mitofsky International

Informs NYMay 17, 2006

Warren Mitofsky

2004 U.S. PROJECTIONS

Projections for 124 races

51 president

34 senate

11 governor

7 statewide house

20 referenda

And for 23 Democratic Primaries and a Caucus

THE DATA

• Sampled 50 states + DC• Interviewed 60 to 100+ voters in 1,469

precincts – over 110,000 interviews • Interviewed 5,800 absentee voters in 13

states before election day• Collected vote returns from 2,985 sample

precincts• Received vote by county from the

Associated Press

THE ESTIMATES

• Exit polls – interviews with voters in

sample precincts

• Quick counts – vote returns in

sample precincts

• County returns

All our projections were all correct !

All NEP members’ projections were all correct !

WE DID ONE MORE THING---

We provided analysis of issues and identified the make-up of the constituencies supporting each candidate.

We did this for all 124 races and for the nation as a whole.

Edison/Mitofsky Worked for NEP

Edison Media Research

Mitofsky International

National Election Pool

ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, NBC News

WHY DO NEWS ORGANIZATIONS DO IT?

• Transfer of power – electing a U.S. President is the biggest story in the free world

• Legitimize television news – in the early days television was viewed as only entertainment

Recent Exit Polls in Emerging Democracies

Recent Exit Polls in Emerging Democracies

Moldov Philippines New Delhi UkraineTaiwan VenezuelaPalestine ZimbabweBelarus Georgia

Recent Exit Polls in Other Countries

Recent Exit Polls in Other Countries

France AzerbaijanGermany BelarusBritain ItalyIsrael

• Credibility of a new government depends on the belief in a transparent election

• Official counts are not always believable

• Exit polls are the first word on the transfer of power in a democracy

• Credibility of a new government depends on the belief in a transparent election

• Official counts are not always believable

• Exit polls are the first word on the transfer of power in a democracy

NOTABLE PROJECTIONSNOTABLE PROJECTIONS

• 1988 Chile, Presidential referendum

• 2004 Belarus, Presidential referendum

• 2004 Venezuela, Presidential referendum

• 2004 Ukraine, Presidential 1st run-off

• 2000 U.S., Presidential election

FREE & FAIR ELECTIONFREE & FAIR ELECTION

• It does not mean – Error Free

• It means – Errors are Random

FREE & FAIR ELECTIONFREE & FAIR ELECTION

Assurances may come from ….– Unbiased free press

– Unbiased electoral observers

– Independent projections

All projections are

not equal !

When Exit Polls and Official Result Differ

• Established Democracies

“What went wrong with the exit poll?”

• New Democracies

“Is the official result wrong?”

Rule # 1Rule # 1

The Pollster is Not Partisan

(Ignore partisan polls)

Rule # 2Rule # 2

The projection must be reported promptly by

unbiased media(Ignore delayed reports

and/or biased source)

Rule # 3Rule # 3

Methods used for conducting the exit poll or quick count must be…–Generally accepted as good

practice.

–Methods must be disclosed

Methods must be disclosed before the election.

Otherwise there can be no credibility for the results.

Methods must be disclosed before the election.

Otherwise there can be no credibility for the results.