Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005Fire and Climate Change Forest Fires and Climate Change in Canada.
Transcript of Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005Fire and Climate Change Forest Fires and Climate Change in Canada.
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Forest Fires and Climate Change in Canada
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Canadian Fire Statistics
• Incomplete prior to 1970• Currently - average of 9000
fires a year burn 2.6 million ha• Area burned is highly episodic
– 0.4 to 7.6 million ha
• Lightning fires – 35% of total fires – represent 85% of area burned
• Fire size– 3% of fires are >200 ha– represent 97% of area burned
CanadaAnnual Area Burned
Year
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Mill
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hec
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Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Large Fires in Alaska and Canada 1980-1999
Fire polygons kindly provided by Canadian Fire Agencies (Provinces, Territories and Parks Canada) and the state of Alaska
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Forest Fires – 4 Key Factors
• Fuel - loading, moisture, structure etc.
• Ignition - human and lightning
• Weather - temperature, precipitation atmospheric moisture and wind; upper atmospheric conditions (blocking ridges)
• Humans - land use, fragmentation, fire management etc.
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Fire and Carbon
Fire plays a major role in carbon dynamics: it can determine the magnitude of net biome productivity
1) combustion: direct loss
2) decomposition of fire-killed vegetation
3) stand renewal: young successional stands have potential to be greater sinks than mature stagnant forests
~700 Pg carbon stored in the boreal forest ~30-35 % of the global terrestrial biosphere
Canadian Direct Carbon Emissions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
16019
5819
6019
6219
6419
6619
6819
7019
7219
7419
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7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
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00
Year
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arb
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Fossil Fuel
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Climate Change Projections
• GCMs project 1.4 – 5.80 C increase in global mean temperature by 2100
• Greatest increases will be at high latitudes, over land and winter/spring
• Projected increases in extreme weather(e.g., heat waves, drought, floods, wind storms and ice storms)
• Observed increases across west-central Canada and Siberia over past 40 years
Observations above – summer temperature changes below 2080-2100
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Projected temperature changes vary considerably from year to year
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
A smoking gun?
• Area burned in Canada is strongly related to human-caused warming
• Impacts of climate change are here already
• A warmer future means more fire in Canada
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
GCMs Seasonal Severity Rating
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Area Burned Projections
Canadian –3xCO2Hadley –3xCO2
Projections of area burned based on weather/fire danger relationships suggest a 75-120% increase in area burned by the end of this century according to the Canadian and Hadley models respectively
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Fire Occurrence Prediction
• People-caused and lightning-caused fire occurrence • Models for Ontario suggest 25-100% increase in fire
starts by 2090
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Fossil Fuel emissions: increase greenhouse gases
Weather becomes more conducive to fire: more fire
Carbon released from more fireenhances greenhouse gases further
Fire and Weather Feedbacks: potentially positive
Cause warmer conditions
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
SummarySummary
• Weather/Climate and fire are strongly Weather/Climate and fire are strongly linkedlinked
• Fire activity is likely to increase Fire activity is likely to increase significantly with climate change although significantly with climate change although the response will have large temporal and the response will have large temporal and spatial variability spatial variability
• Integrated approaches will be required Integrated approaches will be required to adapt to climate-change altered fire to adapt to climate-change altered fire activity in terms of social, economic activity in terms of social, economic and ecological policies and practicesand ecological policies and practices
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Collaborators/Partners
• Universities – Arizona, Australian National University, Manitoba, Montana, Toronto and UQAM/UQAT
• BC Ministry of Forests, Environment Canada, NRCan, Ontario MNR and US Forest Service,
• GCTE & IGBP• Action Plan 2000, Climate
Change Action Fund,NCE – SFMN, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, PERD
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Proxy data also indicate that the recent warming is likely unprecedented in at least the past millennium
Source: IPCC(2001)
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Global surface temperatures are rising
Relative to 1961-90 average temperature
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Fire Ecology• Boreal forests survive and even
thrive in semi-regular high intensity fires
• Removes competition • Prepares seedbed• Survival strategies - Cone
serotiny, vegetative reproduction and bark thickness
• Role of fire suppression –Smokey syndrome
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Climate change – optimistpessimist or
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Fire Issues
• An average of $500 million spent by fire management agencies in Canada a year on direct fire fighting costs
• Health and safety of Canadians
• Property and timber losses due to fire
• Balancing the positive and negative aspects of fire
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Fire and Climate Change Research –
Purpose
• Understand relationships between weather/climate and fire
• Model future fire activity – fire weather, area burned, fire intensity/severity, fire season length etc.
• Adaptation strategies for an altered fire regime due to climate change
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Outline
• Fire background• Climate change• Impacts of climate change on
fire activity• How do we cope?
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Fire and Climate Change Research – where are we?
• Future fire weather – fire danger
• Fire season length
• Preliminary studies
– Future area burned
– Changes in fire intensity
– Fire occurrence prediction
– Level of protection studies
– Adaptation plans
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Length of fire season
CCC –3xCO2 Hadley –3xCO2
• Fire season length increases by 10-50 days over much of the boreal according to
the Canadian and Hadley GCMs
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
0.0 - 0.20.2 - 0.40.4 - 0.60.6 - 0.80.8 - 1.01.0 - 1.21.2 - 1.41.4 - 1.61.6 - 1.81.8 - 2.02.0 - 3.03.0 +No fuel
HFI Ratio 3x/1x CO2
This will influence the type of fire (more crowning), reduce suppression effectiveness, and may lead to larger sized fires.
This will influence the type of fire (more crowning), reduce suppression effectiveness, and may lead to larger sized fires.
RCM - Ratio 3xCO2/1xCO2
Central Saskatchewan
RCM - Ratio 3xCO2/1xCO2
Central Saskatchewan
Potential Changes in Fire Intensity
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
What will the future be like?
• Longer fire seasons• More area burned • More intense fires• More ignitions –
human and lightning-caused
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Fire and Climate Change Research – where we are going
• Better estimates of future area burned and GHG emissions
• Fire Occurrence prediction – lightning and human-caused
• Interactions with other disturbances
• Understanding the effects of atmospheric and oceanic circulations on fire activity
• Understanding processes & interactions using historical data
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
So What!
• Health and safety of Canadians through improved fire weather and fire behaviour systems
• Options/strategic plans for landscape management
• Adaptation options for fire management agencies with respect to climate change altered fire regimes
• Fire season forecasts
• Input into decisions for Kyoto – are our forests carbon sinks or sources?
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
We are living in a flammable forest
Some Recent Incidents • Kelowna/Barriere, BC (2003)• Hillcrest/Blairmore, AB (2003)• Turtle Lake, SK (2002)• Chisholm, AB (2001)• Burwash Landing, YK (1999)• La Ronge, SK (1999)• Beardmore, ON (1999)• Shelburne County, NS (1999)• Badger, NF (1999)• Salmon Arm, BC (1998)• Swan Hills, AB (1998)• Granum, AB (1997) • Timmins, ON (1997)• Ft. Norman, NT (1995)• N&S Manitoba (1989)
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
How do we cope with more fire?
• Greater risk –
1) Increased fire activity 2)More Canadians live and work in the wildland urban interface
• More evacuations
• Smoke issues – Health and transportation
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Adaptation Strategies • Fire exclusion not an option in many regions
• Landscape fuels management– Fuel conversion– Fuel reduction– Fuel isolation
• “FireSmart” landscapes– Strategically located firebreaks– Education, prevention– Emergency planning
• Level of protection studies
spruce
aspen
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Sustainable Forest Management
• Future area burned may be less than historical area burned in some regions
• Natural Disturbance based Forest management could be used to recreate the forest age structure of fire-controlled pre-industrial landscapes
Future burn rate is lower than past burn rate:a real substitution is expectable.
Yield constraints
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Fire and Kyoto
• Fires contribute to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
• Currently our forests are a small sink of carbon or even a source of carbon due primarily to disturbances
• If Canada includes forest management(Art. 3.4 – managed forests) then we will have to account for disturbances
• Fire management protects values at risk – not carbon
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
Landscape Management - A Balancing Act
• How much fire does the forest need?
• New systems and models are needed to balance multiple objectives far a landscape with climate change altered disturbances( fire, insects, wind etc.)– Biodiversity (including
Habitat)– Harvesting, exploration etc.– Tourism & Recreation– Carbon?
Exeter IGBP Oct. 27-28 2005 Fire and Climate Change
ICFME Fire Video Clip