Exclusion from-education-final-report

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  • 1.1 e x c l u s i o n f r o m e d u c a t i o n : T h e E c o n o m i c C o s t o f O u t o f S c h o o l C h i l d r e n i n 2 0 C o u n t r i e s b y M i l a n T h o m a s w i t h N i c h o l a s B u r n e tt

2. E n r o l l i n g i s E s s e n t i a l 3. C o n t e n t s P a g e F OREWOR D 0 6 E x e c u t i v e S u mm a r y 1 1 B a c k g r o u n d 1 5 T h e E c o n o m i c C o s t o f O u t o f s c h o o l C h i l d r e n 1 8 M i c r o e c o n o m i c C o s t E s t i m a t i o n 2 3 M a c r o e c o n o m i c C o s t E s t i m a t i o n 3 2 D i s c u s s i o n : T h e U r g e n c y o f E n r o l l i n g 3 6 O u t o f s c h o o l C h i l d r e n C o n c l u s i o n 4 0 A n n e x 1 : E P D C D a t a 4 2 A n n e x 2 : E c o n o m e t r i c s 4 4 R e f e r e n c e s 4 9 4. D RC : D e m o c r a t i c R e p u b l i c o f C o n g o EAC : Ed u c a t e A C h i l d E F A : Ed u c a t i o n F o r A l l G D P : G r o s s D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t G M R : Ed u c a t i o n F o r A l l G l o b a l M o n i t o r i n g R e p o r t H D I : H u m a n D e v e l o pm e n t I n d e x M D G : M i l l e n n i u m D e v e l o pm e n t G o a l s OOSC : O u t o f s c h o o l C h i l d r e n UIS : UNESCO I n s t i t u t e f o r St a t i s t i c s UN : U n i t e d N a t i o n s A c r o n y m s 5. 06 This is the second publication from Educate A Child (EAC) that focuses on the costs of not providing universal primary educationto individuals and to nations. Like the first, it was developed by and is published jointly with Results for Development (R4D). This study, using more recent data, covers more countries and reinforces in significant ways the findings of the first study. In addition, it further develops the estimation methodology, which we believe is an important contribution to future knowledge generation in relation to the economic and related costs of not educating children at the primary level. The key findings from this research are that the costs of not educating out of school children significantly outweigh the necessary investments for providing universal primary education, and that for some countries; these costs exceed the value of an average year of economic growth. Additionally, using the findings from the first study, educating out of school children will also yield impressive savings in a range of other sectors including health, agriculture, and the environment, which can have a positive effect on growth and productivity. F OREWOR D 6. 07 Investing in basic education seems an obvious solution in a global community where economic disparities are increasing and becoming more visible, leading to dissatisfaction, and sometimes social unrest, among segments of society worldwide. Why then, are investments in primary education not on the increase across the board, and especially in those countries where the numbers of out of school children are highest? The evidence exists and it has been shown to be constant over decades. We can only surmise that it has not reached leaders and decision-makers in a form that enables them to understand the importance to nations, as well as individuals, of providing free, quality primary education to all. We hope that this research can contribute to decisions that result in increased investment in primary education. Mary Joy Pigozzi, PhD Director, Educate A Child F OREWOR D 7. 08 A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t T h e a u t h o r s w o u l d l i k e t o e x p r e s s t h e i r g r a t i t u d e t o e d u c a t e a c h i l d f o r p r o v i d i n g t h e o r i g i n a l i d e a a n d f u n d i n g f o r t h i s p a p e r . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e y t h a n k m a r y p i g o z z i f o r s u b s t a n t i v e f e e d b a c k o n e a r l y d r a f t s , a n d l u b n a a l - a tt i a h f o r h e r c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e d e s i g n o f t h i s r e p o r t . T h e y a l s o t h a n k s h e e n a b e l l o f t h e u n e s c o i n s t i t u t e f o r s t a t i s t i c s f o r c a l c u l a t i n g a n d p r o v i d i n g o u t o f s c h o o l c h i l d r e n t y p o l o g y f i g u r e s f o r t h i s s t u d y , a n d b i r g e r f r e d r i k s e n a n d a n n e g u i s o n - d o w d y f o r t h e i r v a l u a b l e c o n c e p t u a l g u i d a n c e . 8. 09 T h e a u t h o r a n d p u b l i s h e r h a v e m a d e e v e r y e f f o r t t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h i s b o o k w a s c o r r e c t a t p r e s s t i m e , t h e a u t h o r a n d p u b l i s h e r d o n o t a s s u m e a n d h e r e b y d i s c l a i m a n y l i a b i l i t y t o a n y p a r t y f o r a n y l o s s , d a m a g e , o r d i s r u p t i o n c a u s e d b y e r r o r s o r o m i s s i o n s , w h e t h e r s u c h e r r o r s o r o m i s s i o n s r e s u l t f r o m n e g l i g e n c e , a c c i d e n t , o r a n y o t h e r c a u s e . D i s c l a i m e r 9. Executive Summary 10. 12 In April 2013, Results for Development Institute (R4D) reviewed the benefits of primary education and estimated the economic cost associated with large populations of out of school children in a background study for Educate A Childs (EAC) High Level Strategic Meeting to Accelerate Efforts to Reach out of school Children (Burnett, Guison-Dowdy and Thomas 2013). This report is an extension of that study. It updates economic cost estimates to reflect the latest data from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), further develops the estimation methodology, and expands the estimation exercise to a set of 20 low- and middle-income countries. EACs mission to support the Education for All initiative and Millennium Development Goals for education is more pressing and relevant than ever. Although significant progress toward achieving universal primary education has been made over the past decade, out of school children (OOSC) remain a pervasive global problem. According to UNESCO estimates, there are at least 57 million OOSC of primary-school age in the world (UIS 2013). To underscore the importance of reducing the global number of out of school children, this paper uses two methods to estimate the economic loss associated with OOSC. The first estimation approach uses labor market data to estimate the total earnings that will be forfeited in the near future due to undereducated workers if primary school enrollment patterns do not change. The second approach is based on cross-country regressions that estimate the relationship between national education attainment and per capita income (Psacharopoulos and Patrinos 2011, Barro and Lee 2010). E x e c u t i v e S u mm a r y 11. 13 The estimated economic costs of OOSC vary substantially with OOSC prevalence rates across the sample, from 1% of GDP in Thailand to 10% of GDP in Gambia. Because these estimates do not account for the non-income benefits of primary education (such as improved health and citizenship), they are likely lower bounds for the total cost of OOSC in each country. This report reveals that for nine countries with high OOSC prevalence, the economic benefit associated with achieving universal primary education exceeds multiple years of economic growth. In Mali and Nigeria, for example, the projected cost of OOSC is worth over two years of average GDP growth. In fact, the economic cost of OOSC tends to be highest in countries that have experienced slow growth over the past decade, suggesting that enrolling out of school children and providing them with quality education could contribute to global economic convergence, reducing economic inequality between and within countries. Furthermore, for all countries in the sample (even those with low OOSC prevalence, like Brazil and Indonesia), the estimated economic gain from achieving universal primary education exceeds the estimated increase in public spending required to enroll those OOSC in primary school. Thus there are strong equity and efficiency arguments in favor of endowing OOSC with quality primary education. Taken together, the findings of this report should provide impetus for efforts to reach out of school children and ensure that all citizens have access to primary education and the opportunity to achieve their full economic and social potential. E x e c u t i v e S u mm a r y 12. Background 13. 16 Despite global initiatives dedicated to achieving universal primary education, over 57 million children of primary school age were not enrolled in school in 2011 (UIS 2013). These are the worlds out of school children (OOSC). Nearly half of them were expected never to enroll in school, while the rest either had already dropped out or expected to enroll late. Significant progress in achieving universal primary education has been made over the past decade, as the global number of OOSC dropped by 44%, from 102 million in 2000 to 57 million in 2011. However, much of those gains were achieved prior to 2004, and progress in reducing OOSC has stagnated in recent years (GMR 2012). B a c k g r o u n d Figure 1: Half of the worlds OOSC are concentrated in 14 countries Adapted from UIS 2013. 14. 17 B a c k g r o u n d Considerable regional variation underlies the aggregate trend in OOSC. Although the global absolute number of OOSC has fallen since 1999, the number of OOSC has increased in many countries. Fourteen countries alone, nine of which are in Sub-Saharan Africa, account for half of the worlds OOSC population (Figure 1). With significant progress being made in South and West Asia, a growing concentration of OOSC are in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is home to over half of the worlds OOSC. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of OOSC rose from 29.0 million in 2008 to 29.8 million in 2011. Over one-sixth of all OOSC are in Nigeria (GMR 2012), where the rate of OOSC has actually increased since 2001. In some countries, the lack of progress in reducing OOSC can be attributed to disruption from armed conflict (e.g. the Democratic Republic of Congo), e