Exchange rate movements in the long term
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Transcript of Exchange rate movements in the long term
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International Finance 130440-1165
Exchange rate movements in the long term
International Finance 130440-1165
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International Finance 130440-1165
Lecture outline
The law of one price The purchasing power parity (PPP) theory The monetary model and PPP Extensions of the PPP theory
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International Finance 130440-1165
The law of one price
Assumption: no barriers to trade, no transportation costs The price of identical goods should be equal in different
countries if expressed in the same currency
Example: If ER=1,5 USD/GBP PGBP=30 GBP PUSD=45 USD
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International Finance 130440-1165
The law of one price
PGBP>PUSD imports from USA price
falls in GB
PUSD= ER USD/GBP*PGB
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International Finance 130440-1165
The purchasing power parity theory
The purchasing power (PP) of a currency is reflected in the nominal price of a reference basket of goods and services.
If one can buy the same basket for 30 GBP and for 45 USD the PP of the GBP is higher than of the USD
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International Finance 130440-1165
The purchasing power parity theory
The nominal ER of two currencies conforms the PPP if for a unit of a currency we can purchase the same basket of goods in our country and abroad
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International Finance 130440-1165
The purchasing power parity theory
The PP of two currencies is measured with the real ER
RER= NER* Pn/Pa
NER*Pn/Pa=1 RER=1
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International Finance 130440-1165
The purchasing power parity theory
Overvalued currency if RER>1 it means:
NER* Pn>Pa
Undervalued currency if RER<1 it means:
NER* Pn>Pa
Arbitrage Pn and NER decreases (or
increases) so RER=1
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International Finance 130440-1165
The absolute and relative version of PPP theory
The absolute version seem not to be confirmed empirically
RER does not equal 1!
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International Finance 130440-1165
The PLN RER vs EUR
Źródło: R. Kelm, Model behawioralnego kursu równowagi złotego do euro, Bank i Kredyt 41 (2), NBP,
Warszawa 2010.
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International Finance 130440-1165
The absolute and relative version of PPP theory
The relative version of the theory: the NER changes of one currency equal the
difference between the domestic price changes and abroad
(NERt-NERt-1)/NERt-1=Πnt-Πat
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International Finance 130440-1165
Inflation differentials
According to the PPP theory the changes in the nominal ER are due to inflation differentials
Πn=3% Πa=1% the national currency
should depreciate at 2% p.a.
NERt/NERt-1=101/103=98%
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International Finance 130440-1165
Empirical verification of PPP
Empirical proofs only in a longer term The PPP RER is offen used to compare
wealth in different countries Problem- consumption structure Depending on the reference basket- there
are several RER PPP
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International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Assumption: NER= Pn/Pa so the PPP is fullfilled
Pn=Mn/L(in, Yn)
Pa= Ma/L(ia, Ya)
NER is determined in the long term by the relative money supply and demand in two countries
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International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Money supply increase price increase currency depreciation
Interest rate increase decrease of money demand by constant money supply increase of prices depreciation
Production increase money demand increase price decrease appreciation
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International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Puzzling evidence?? The influence of interest rate changes on
ER depends on the reason why the interest rate changed!
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International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Raising money supply Persistent inflation The interest rate parity and PPP If people expect the PPP theory to hold, the
interest rate difference between two countries equals the difference between the expected inflation in those two countries
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International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Πe=(Pe-P)/P
(NERe-NER)/ NER= Πen- Πea
in= ia+ (NERe-NER)/NER
in- ia = Πen- Πea
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International Finance 130440-1165
The Fisher effect
in- ia = Πen- Πea
The increase of the expected inflation in one country causes in a long term an identical increase of the interest rate denominated in the currency of this country
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International Finance 130440-1165
The Fisher effect
The effect holds only in long term It explains the paradox of the relation
between ir changes and er changes In the short term- sticky prices
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International Finance 130440-1165
The empirical verification of the relative PPP theory
Źródło: R. Kelm, Model behawioralnego kursu równowagi złotego do euro, Bank i Kredyt 41 (2), NBP,
Warszawa 2010.
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International Finance 130440-1165
Main factors impeding PPP
Barriers to trade Non-tradable goods Incompetitive market structures Differences in consumption structures
and prices The Ballassa-Samuelson effect
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International Finance 130440-1165
Barriers to trade
Transportation cost Trade policy Barriers to capital movement
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International Finance 130440-1165
Nontradable goods
Services No international price relation Great share of nontradables in GDP
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International Finance 130440-1165
The Big Mac Index
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International Finance 130440-1165
Incompetitive market structures
Market segmentation Price discrimination Dumping prices
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International Finance 130440-1165
Consumption structure differences
Different measures of prices and inflation Majority of consumption- national
products Differences in consumption structure
influence PPP ER
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International Finance 130440-1165
The Balassa-Samuelson effect
The price level in countries with higher labour productivity grwoth is higher than in countries with lower productivity growth
Differences in productivity growth in tradables and nontradables sectors
Productivity growth wages growth in both sectors
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International Finance 130440-1165
The Balassa-Samuelson effect
Higher inflation in the nontradables sector Effect- countries with higher
productivity higher price level RER >1
Especially- cathing up countries
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International Finance 130440-1165
Extending the PPP theory
Real ER movements Long term equilibrium on the FX market International long term ineterest rate
differentials
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International Finance 130440-1165
Real exchange rate movements
RER depreciation RER appreciation
Example: NER USD decreases from 0,7 to 0,6 EUR/USD
ΠEUR= 105 and ΠUSD=130
This means USD RER appreciation
RERt/RERt-1= (NERt/NERt-1)* Πn/Πa
=(0,6/0,7)*(130/105)= 1,06
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International Finance 130440-1165
Long term equilibrium on the FX market
NER=RER*(Pn/Pa)
by given RER the NER is influenced by money demand and supply
by given money demand and supply NER is influenced by RER
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International Finance 130440-1165
Long term equilibrium on the FX market
Shifts in relative money supply Shifts in relative money supply growth
rates Shifts in relative demand for products Shifts in relative supply of products
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International Finance 130440-1165
Long term equilibrium on the FX market
If all shock are monetary in a long term the RER conforms PPP!!!
Monetary shocks influence only the PP which changes the ER
If real shocks occure- the ER does not conform to PPP
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International Finance 130440-1165
International long term interest rate differentials
Interest rate differentials depend not only on inflation expectations but also on expected RER
in-ia= (NERe-NER)/NER +(Πen - Πea )
The interest rate differential equals the expected real depreciation of the ER and expected inflation differentials
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International Finance 130440-1165
Real ineterest rate parity
The expected RER changes equal the expected real interest rate changes
rine-riae=(RERe-RER)/RER
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International Finance 130440-1165
Summing up
No empirical evidence of the absolute version of the PPP theory
NER*Pn/Pa=1 RER=1
The relative version of the PPP theory
(NERt-NERt-1)/NERt-1=Πnt-Πat
Empirical evidence only in the long term
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International Finance 130440-1165
Summing up
The monetary model based on PPP The Fisher effect
in- ia = Πen- Πea
Factors impeding the PPP theory Extensions of the PPP theory
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International Finance 130440-1165
References P. Krugman, M.Obstfeld, International economics: theory and policy. Part II,
Pearson, Addison Wesley, Boston 2009 R. Kelm, Model behawioralnego kursu równowagi złotego do euro, Bank i
Kredyt 41 (2), NBP, Warszawa 2010 M. Rubaszek, Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium
exchange rate in Poland, Bank i Kredyt 40 (1), NBP, Warszawa 2009. R. Clarida, J. Gali, Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how
importanta are nominal shocks?, NBER Working Paper, 1994. M. Wagner, J. Hlouskova, What’s really the story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?, Diskussionschriften, Universität
Bern, 2004