Evolutionary Changes and Salmon

Tom Quinn

steelhead

sockeye

chum

pink

coho

Chinook

masou

cutthroat

Salmo

Salvelinus

Oncorhynchus

After Hendry & Stearns; Crespi

Pacific salmon(semelparous)

AAtlantic salmon & brown trout

Study area

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Year

CalifOregonWashTotal

Coho salmon harvestWhy?

ESA scorecardNot

Species E T C Listed

Chinook 2 7 1 7Chum - 2 - 2Coho - 3 2 1Cutthroat - (1) 1 4Pink - - - 2Sockeye 1 1 - 5Steelhead 2 8 2 3

Totals 5 22 6 24

A great deal of effort (and money) has gone into evaluating demographic effects of the 4Hs

Hydropower

Harvest

Habitat

Hatcheries

EvolutionaryEcological

Hatchery Harvest Habitat Hydropower

Data source:Made up

Can salmon evolve fast enough to persist in

human-altered environments?

Eggs

Spawners

Parr

Smolts

1-ocean

15%

60%

18%

3%Sexual

selection

Typical stage-specific survival rates

Columbia RiverChinook salmon

Steve Schroder

(~4000)

Some key questions:

• Can phenotypic plasticity help buffer salmon against anthropogenic changes?

• What type of anthropogenic changes require the most dramatic evolutionary response?

• How fast can salmon evolve in response to anthropogenic change?

• To what extent are the evolutionary changes reversible?

SymposiumBackground

Robin Waples, NOAA Ruth Shaw, U. Minnesota

Salmon PrimerTom Quinn, U. WashingtonMary Power, UC BerkeleyRay Hilborn, U. Washington

Evolution PrimerStevan Arnold, Oregon

StateAndrew Hendry, McGillSonia Sultan, WesleyanJeff Hutchings, DalhousieJoel Kingsolver, UNCMichael Whitlock, UBCRichard Law, U. York

Case studiesMaureen Purcell, USGS, SeattleBill Bradshaw, U. Oregon

1. Size-selective harvest2. Disease prevalence and resistance3. Climate change4. Selective loss of habitat types 5. Effects of dams on water flow and temperature6. Habitat fragmentation & population structure7. Snake River fall chinook salmon

Workshop topics

John Williams, NWFSCJay Hesse, Nez Perce TribeBilly Connor, US Fish & Wildlife ServiceSteve Arnold, Oregon State Nils Ryman, Stockholm U.Jeff Hutchings, Dalhousie U.

[Rich Zabel, NWFSC][Robin Waples, NWFSC]

Snake River fall chinook salmonWork group

Habitat loss (impassable dams)Habitat quality

Impediments to migrationFlow & TemperatureTurbidity, pH, gravel, etcEstuary

HatcheryHarvestInvasive species

Snake River fall chinook salmonAnthropogenic factors

Why me?

Size at date

2004 1950

90 mm70 mm

Snake River fall chinook salmon

B. WilliamsUnpubl. data

Size at date

Threshold for smolting

2004 1950

Smolt – adult survival

3x higher for yearling life history

yearling subyearling

Can it be explained by drift?No – would require Ne ~ 10 (est Ne ~ 1000)

Can it be explained by environmental changes and phenotypic plasticity?Perhaps – but no quantitative analysis

Can it be explained by evolution?Yes – required evolutionary rate falls within empirical range (assuming h2 = 0.4)

Rate of phenotypic change:2 sd in 50 years = 12 generations

Stevan Arnold model (after Lande 1976)

Heritability in Chinook salmon

Growth rate 0.3Age at maturity 0.2 – 0.6Precocious male maturation 0.1 – 0.5Disease resistance up to 0.8

Heath et al.Hankin et al.

Hard

Future of EvoSalmon?Products

ReportOverview paperPaper for Mol. Ecol.Special issue of journal?

NESCENT workgroups?Research

Andrew Hendry

1. Evolutionary effects on functionality of ecosystems?

2. Do human activities that are causing the effects need to be controlled?

3. Could management changes alter evolutionary effects?

4. Further research?

Policy Questions