Evolution and Complexity: How the

Universe created wealth (diversity)

and how humans are destroying it.

Is there a future for mankind?

By Robert U. Ayres,

Prof Emeritus INSEAD

Institute Scholar, IIASA

1

The underlying physics• Energy is the building block of the universe

• Energy is conserved: neither created nor destroyed

(the First Law of thermodynamics).

• But not all energy can do work (lift, push,

accelerate, etc.) The useful part is called exergy.

The other part is called anergy.

• Exergy is not conserved. Doing work destroys

exergy and increases entropy.

• The second law of thermodynamics says that

Energy always flows from hot to cold, from order

to disorder.2

What is ENTROPY ?

• It is a state, not a substance.

• It increases every time there is any

action (or any flow of exergy)

• It is the “arrow of time”

• It is (roughly speaking) a measure of

disorder.

• It is a ratio of probabilities: toward more

probable v. toward less probable3

The universe as a heat engine

The expansion of the universe is like the

expansion stroke of a heat engine: it

converts heat and pressure into kinetic

energy. The work being done is not

against a piston, but is against the force of

gravity acting from the center of mass.

The work that is being done is “symmetry

breaking”, or creation of gradients or

differentiation and/or complexification.4

At first there was perfect symmetry:

All possible states were

superimposed, no gradients

• Elementary particles were spontaneously

“condensed” from “the vacuum”, as it cooled.

Particle-anti-particle pairs instantaneously

recombined and self-destructed.

• Why is the number of anti-particles not equal

to the number of particles”?

• But why is the number of protons equal to the

number of electrons? (No net charge)

• It’s a puzzle.5

The first symmetry-breaking

transitions• At the BB all forces/carriers were indistinguishable

(perfect symmetry)

• First fermions(that occupy space) were distinguished from “bosons” (that don’t). Fermions have half integer “spin”, bosons have integer spins.

• Then came electric charge (+, - or 0) and mass (+,- or 0)

• The “strong force” is distinguished from the electro-weak force.

• Fermions split into quarks (that “feel” the strong force) and leptons (that don’t feel it).

• Then the “electro-weak” force also split and electromagnetism was distinguished from the “weak” force. Chirality (right/left “handedness”)not conserved.

6

Later• Quantum fluctuations broke the early symmetry of

uniformity, homogeneity and isotropy

• Gravitational force created density variations, resulting in proto stars.

• Gravitational force (pressure) in stars enabled fusion of H, He, up to iron. Fusion made the stars “shine”.

• Gravitational collapse of large stars (super-novae) (after exhaustion of H, He) created heavier elements and interstellar dust

• Dust clouds condense to form new planets and stars, such as Earth.

7

The carbon-nitrogen cycle and the proton-proton chain for synthesis

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNO_cycle

8

The Milky Way ─ our Galaxy

9Source: http://www.atlasoftheuniverse.com/galaxy.html

Nuclear binding energy (potential) per

nucleon (MeV)

10

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

-7

-5

-3

-1

0

Atomic Weight

MeV

H

H

Li Be

He

O

C

Ne

NB

Si

220

PA

Cr Ni

Se

As Kr Nb

Mo Te

SnI Xe Ba

TaRe

Hg

1

2

Region ofmaximumnuclearstability

Potential forexothermic

fission

Potential forexothermicfusion

Source: [adapted from Aston 35,36; Bainbridge 32,33]

OsWTl

Fe

Elementary abundances

11

0 5 10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Atomic number, Z

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Abundance of Si is normalized to 106

He

Be

Hf Th

U

H

LiB

N

F

NaAl

PClK

Sc

V

MnCo

Cu

Ga

AsBrRb Y

NbTcRhAg

ISb CsLa

PrPm EuTbHoTm

CO

NeMgSi

SAr

Ca

Ti

Cr

Fe

Ni

Zn

GeSeKrSr

Zr

MoRuPdCdSn TeXeBa

CeNd

SmGdDyErYb

W

OsPt

Hg

Pb

Lu

TaRe

IrAuTl BiIn

Abundance (Log 10)

Source:https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SolarSystemAbundances.png#/media/File:SolarSystemAbundances.png)

Periodic Table showing origin of elements – and wealth

12

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_nucleosynthesis

A gas cloud in CassiopeiaThe red color indicates that organic compounds are present

13http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA03096

Silica grains in dust clouds where UV-driven chemical reactions can take place

14http://www.astrochem.org/sci_img/icegrain.jpg

The sun and solar system

• Our sun is “middle-aged”: 5 billion years old. It is now 15 deg.C warmer than at the beginning.

• The planets formed in a disk-shaped dust cloud, from density inhomogeneities that became gravitational attractors.

• The Earth was originally two planets that collided. The larger one kept all the heavy elements, including the iron core. The smaller one (which causes tides) is the moon.

• Convection currents in the iron-nickel core generate the magnetic field that protects Earth from cosmic rays and solar wind.

15

The Magnetosphere of the Earth

Source: http://gbailey.staff.shef.ac.uk/researchoverview.html

16

Geology: ore differentiation

• Magmatic

– Cumulate deposits – fractional crystallization processes

can concentrate metals (Cr, Fe, Pt)

– Pegmatites (holocrystalline rock), mostly quartz, feldspar,

mica); late stage crystallization forms other pegmatites

(Li, Ce, Be, Sn, and U)

• Hydrothermal

– Magmatic fluid - directly associated with magma

– Porphyries - Hot water heated by contact with plutons

(intrusive igneous rock crystalizing from magma)

– Skarn – hot water associated with contact metamorphisms

– Exhalatives – hot water flowing to surface

– Epigenetic – hot water from other sources17

Bio-chemistry becomes important

• The early atmosphere was “reducing” i.e. methane, ammonia, CO2, N2, but no oxygen (?) and no ozone-layer. (doubts)

• Small molecules formed on silica dust particles in space (protected from UV) in clouds. Some are deposited on Earth by comets or as organic “chondrites” in meteorites.

• Self-reproducing macro-molecules) like RNA emerged. Nobody knows how, but plausible theories exist.

18

More symmetry-breaks, greater

complexity as life evolved on Earth

• Atmosphere, oceans (liquid water) on a solid

crust result in surfaces where small molecules

react to produce larger (more stable) ones

• Stable ions e.g. amino acids, carboxy chains,

phosphates, accumulate in aqueous solution

• Membranes (with 2 sides) evolve from

phospho-lipids. Distinction between inside and

outside.

• Cyclic auto-catalytic synthesis reactions evolve

inside membrane bubbles (cells).

• Metabolism based on fermentation of “food”19

Formation of bi-polar lipo-phosphate

membranes: The origin of cells

20Source: Wikimedia, Mariana Ruiz

Schematic model of the Chemoton: A self-

replicating chemical system

21

A1

A5A4

A2

A1

XY

TI

T*

waste

materia

lY

Nutrient

X

Tm+1

Tm

Tm+k

V I

T (membranogenetic

molecule)

Tm

A3

intermediates producing

molecules V

pVnVn

pVnV1

pVn

pVn

polymers

of molecules

Vn

R(condensation

by-product)

bi-layer

membrane

bi-layer membranebi-layer membrane

Source: adapted from (Smith and Szathmary 1995, Figure 2.2 p. 21)

Still more symmetry-breaks, more

differentiation, more complexity

• Prokaryotes specialize in different environments

• Mergers create eukaryotes with internal “organs”

• Photo-synthesizers (plants) differentiate from

“grazers”(animals)

• Oxygen respiration permits greater mobility

• Multi-cellular organisms are more efficient. The

“food chain” evolves.

• Sexual reproduction

• Skeletons, invasion of land, warm blood, mammals

22

The photosynthesis cycle

http://www.mhhe.com/biosci/genbio/enger/student/olc/art_quizzes/genbiomedia/0158.jpg23

The Krebs (citric acid) cycle for oxygen

respiration

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0b/Citric_acid_cycle

_with_aconitate_2.svg/350px-Citric_acid_cycle_with_aconitate_2.svg.png24

Carbon dioxide: planetary

temperature regulator• Liquid water is essential to support living

(self-reproducing) organisms.

• Water is liquid between 0 and 100 degrees Celsius. Most organisms thrive in temperatures less than 40 C.

• The CO2 level in the atmosphere intercepts light in certain frequencies. That determines surface temperature

• Most CO2 is now in carbonates or in the oceans

25

Long historic relationship between

carbon dioxide and temperature

26

Source: http://www.paulmacrae.com

Carbon sequestration (fossil fuels)

• The “carboniferous age” lasted 112 million years,

(from 363 million years ago to 251 million years

ago.) Earth’s climate was warmer and more humid

than today, the carbon dioxide level in the

atmosphere was much higher, due to volcanoes.

• Dead biomass on land was buried in silt and

compressed, “cooked” and turned into coal. Marine

biomass ended up as petroleum or methane.

• A small fraction of the carbon that was captured

then is now recoverable and usable by humans. But

there is enough to “fry us all” if we burn it.

27

Skipping over a lot of evolutionary

details, from fish to dinosaurs to

mammals….

• Several (4?) million years ago there were

hominids, living in trees.

• Some of them came down from the trees,

walked on two feet, learned to run, lost their

hair, and used the other two “feet” for gripping.

• They also learned to plan. For that they needed

language.

• Their brains got bigger to accommodate this

need. They are us.28

The stone age and pre-history:

From the caves to the cities

• Weapons and tools: Arrows and spears, hammers and knives

• Taming fire: cooking, clay pots, metallurgy

• Taming animals (dogs, cats, cattle, horses..)

• Agriculture (seeds, breeding, irrigation)

• Walls for protection (villages, towns, cities)

• Social organization (tribal fights, wars to acquire land)

• Language, symbols, art29

From clay tablets (8000 BCE) to printed

books (1500 CE)

• Metallurgy: the manufacture of weapons and armor, a

well as plows and iron pots

• Clothing: from animal skins to leather and woven

textiles (wool, linen, silk)

• Mobility: horses, carts and carriages, ships propelled by

oars and sails

• Social organization: hierarchies and ranks,

classification by occupation (caste)

• Communication: words, symbols, alphabets, numbers,

records (clay tablets, skins, paper)

• Money and trade; the rise of capitalism

• The transition from hunting and gathering in the forest

to agriculture 30

Since long-distance sea travel..

• Fall of Constantinople (1452) & closure of the

“silk road” by Ottoman Turks.

• Portuguese explorers (Vasco da Gama, et al)

• Replication by printing on paper (1450)

• The Reformation and the religious wars

• Deforestation, coking of coal, iron & railroads

• The Industrial Revolution, coal, steam & steel

• Whales, rock oil, the ICE and the automobile

• Electricity, telecommunication, electrification.

• Digital technology, the internet, the cell-phone31

The first industrial revolution

Labor productivity grows

Production of iron

grows

Price of iron

falls

demand for coal

growsPrice of coal falls

production & sales of coal grow

Need for pumping

Deeper mines,

flooding

Coal replaces charcoal in

iron-making

Steam power replaces horses,

wind, etc.

Invention of steam engine for

pumping (Newcomen)

Iron replaces wood in carts,

etc.

32

Progress of internal combustion engines

100

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960

Trevithick (1804)

Stephenson (1825)

Stephenson's Rocket (1829)"Tom Thumb"

"Silent Otto" (1876)(Stationary)

Henson (1842)

Daimler-Maybach (1885)

Wright Brothers (1903)

Mercedes (1901)

Manley (1902)

Rolls-Royce

Rolls-Royce Eagle

Rolls-Royce Merlin

V-8(1965)

Maxim 1894)

Hp/lb

10-1

10-2

10-3

Steam Locomotive

Otto Cycle, Auto

Steam Aero

Turbo Jet

Otto Cycle, Aero

Diesel, Aero

Turbo Prop

33

19th century generator efficiency: Electric power

output per unit of mechanical power output

18381820 1840 1860 1880 1900

Magneto-electric

Dynamo-electric,

Dynamo-electric,

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

drum winding

ring winding

(permanenent magnets)

Gramme

Nollet-Holmes

Hefner-Altaneck

Edison

34

Rapid growth of electrification of

factories and households in the US

1887 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960

Year

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(Series discontinuous at 1899)

% of Factories with Electric Drive

% of Households Wired

Source: Historical Statistics of the United States35

Moore’s Law: Is there a limit?

36

Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity

37

The count-down to singularity

38

Where does it end? Some

things to think about.

• Will computers and robots take over?

• Will we learn to live much longer?

• What happens when the oil really runs

out? Can renewables replace oil?

• Is nuclear power (uranium, thorium or

tritium) the answer?

• What about rare metals? Can we mine

the asteroids? 39

More things to think about…

• What happens when the fresh water

runs out?

• Can the world feed itself?

• Can we prevent climate change?

• Can we end poverty?

• Can we live with extreme inequality?

• Can we live with each other?

40

Thanks for your

patience…and for your

thoughts

41