Every Breath You Take€¦ · Professor John Sodeau Department of Chemistry & Environmental...
Transcript of Every Breath You Take€¦ · Professor John Sodeau Department of Chemistry & Environmental...
Professor John Sodeau Department of Chemistry & Environmental Research Institute
University College Cork @JohnSodeau, crac.ucc.ie
Every Breath You TakeEva Philbin Award Lecture
Institute of Chemistry of Ireland
…no climate.........
PV=nRT n/VT
THERMAL GRADIENT SET UP
INTENSE
WEAK
Earth rotates
Sun heats Earth. Hot air is less dense and rises
Earth rotates and cold dense air flows in underneath
Low pressure on top of high pressure! WIND
Off-axis, rotating planet
OCEANS
IMPORTANT
Winds: Earth’s natural air conditioning
TRANSFER HEATFROM
EQUATOR TO POLES
TRANSFER AIR POLLUTANTS THROUGHOUT
THE FLUID ATMOSPHERE
Atmosphere: Gk. atmos “vapour/steam" + spharia "sphere”
We create air pollution (anthropogenic)TRANSPORT AGRICULTURE SOLID FUEL
What are the most abundant Air Pollutants?
INVISIBLE PARTICULATE MATTER (PM10 and PM2.5 and PM1)
VISIBLE SOLID PARTICLESBLACK CARBON BROWN CARBON
Why does our Air need care?
GLACIER MELTING
INCREASING NUMBERS OF MORE INTENSE “EXTREME”
WEATHER EVENTS
FLOODING
DESERTIFICATION
From snowball to life as we know it, Jim
20 October 2017~700,000,000 BC
With initial thanks to atmospheric CO2…..and later H2ONATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT
The Four Horsemen ride again?
2. FOOD INSECURITY1. DROUGHT
4. WAR 3. FAMINE
Climate Change Refugees: How many for Ireland? (1089 in 2018)
GLOBAL ESTIMATES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEE NUMBERS RANGE BETWEEN 10’S OF MILLIONS AND
100’S OF MILLIONS.CERTAINLY MORE THAN 1089
It all starts with our Atmosphere
Our atmosphere keeps us warm and protects us from UV radiation
Atmospheric chemical composition and climate change
2005
High point in 2016 for CO2
was 0.0410%.
That is 410 ppmv
(parts per million by volume)
All of these chemical components allow the Sun’s UV and visible
radiation through to the surface. When these wavelengths
(photon energies) reach the surface they become degraded to
infrared (IR) radiation and bounce upwards.
Only carbon dioxide of the above group can trap this energy.
Water Vapour: another IR trap
Cycle dependent on the Earth’s average surface
temperature(+15 oC).
In August 2017 the temperature was 1 oC above
the 1981-2010 norm.
With no atmosphere (containing CO2 and H2O)
our surface temperature would be -18 oC !
Water Cycle
How the Greenhouse effect works
The trapping by atmospheric gases like
CO2 or CH4 and particles like black carbon of outgoing infrared
wavelengths emitted by Earth.
CO2 effect predicted in 1896!
“I have calculated the mean alteration of temperature that would follow if the quantity of carbonic acid varied from its present value to a doubled value: 5-6 C.”
Methane: Production and Feedbacks
CLIMATE CHANGE
MORE RAIN
MORE WETLANDS
MORE METHANE
FEEDBACKS
July 2017 1842 ppbv
July 2016 1834 ppbv
1 short ton =2000 lbs
59 years of CO2 data from Mauna Loa, HawaiiMarch 1958 to October 2017
Decade Total Increases Average Annual Rates of Increase
2005 – 2014 21.06 ppm 2.11 ppm per year
1995 – 2004 18.67 ppm 1.87 ppm per year
1985 – 1994 14.24 ppm 1.42 ppm per year
1975 – 1984 14.40 ppm 1.44 ppm per year
1965 – 1974 10.56 ppm 1.06 ppm per year
1960 – 1964 3.65 ppm 0.73 ppm per year (5 years)
2015-2016:
4.5 ppm increase.
Are we going
exponential?
A missing piece of the puzzle: effect of aerosols on climate change
Volcanoes
Absorption of heat by dark particles
Winter is Coming: Aerosols and Climate Change
In 1815 the Mt Tambura strato-volcano in Indonesia erupted violently. In Europe, 1816 became known as the “Year without a Summer” with lower average temperatures by up to 3 0C.
The Irish Famine of 1740-1741: the first environmental migrants?
In 1737, two strato-volcanos (Vesuvius and Avachinski) erupted violently. In 1739, Ireland experienced the start of a full year of below average temperatures with Frost fairs possible on the Shannon. The crops failed. Many died or emigrated……
Not just Ireland, Danny!Between December 1739 and May 1740, London had 39 snowy days.
For two of these months, average temperatures were < 0 0C.
+ = +
Global temperature was 14.8 oC
in 2015
(1.0 oC above)
Paris Climate Accord: Start date 2020
168 80%
16 OCTOBER 2017
AIM:
To keep global temperatures well below 2 oC
above 1850-1900 levels by 2100
(To aspire to 1.5 oC)
Global temperature was 13.8 oC
in 1850-1900
Global temperature was 15.0 oC
in 2016
(1.2 oC above)
We are close to a + 2 0C world at 410 ppmv CO2. What level in 2100?
Source: Stern Review
LOW
ESTIMATE
MEDIUM
ESTIMATE
HIGH
ESTIMATE
The Health Problems of Particle Pollution
Deaths per
year due to
air pollution
calculated
from data like
this
Nobody has
air pollution as
a cause of
death on a
death
certificate
Cardiovascular effects of Particle Pollution
FREE RADICAL INFLAMMATION
PM, NOX
WHO now estimates that around 8 M people die each year - one in eight of total global deaths – as a result of air pollution exposure. (4.3 M indoor and 3.7 outdoor).
Majority due to cardiovascular disease.
STROKE
HEALTHY
Possible effects on dementia of airborne ultra-fine particles (UFP)
Magnetite (Fe3O4) nanoparticles <150 nm in diameter have been
found in brain tissue harvested in Manchester and Mexico City.
Magnetite contains Fe(II).
Fe(II)/H2O2
2017 Canadian Study shows dementia links to living <200 m from busy roads
Tyres/Brakes/Exhaust
Air Pollution Particles from Solid Fuel Burning
Solid fuel burning produces PRIMARY PM2.5
Smoky coal (4.3 kg/1000 kg burnt)Home heating oil (0.1 kg/1000 kg burnt) Gas (0.0/1000 kg burnt)Peat (4.5kg/1000kg burnt)Wood (9.0 kg/1000kg burnt)
Sources of Air Pollution in Killarney (EPA/UCC SAPPHIRE PROJECT)
Domestic Solid
Fuel Burning
produces > 70%
of the small
particles
Traffic
produces 1%
of the small
particles
The Health Problems of NO2 pollution
Nearly 9500 people are killed by air pollution each year in London. About 3500 from PM2.5 and ~6000 from NO2
1480 people killed by air pollution in Ireland each year. 1480 from
PM2.5 and 10 from NO2
Air Quality needs to be monitored and reported in real-time….like most of Europe
“Urban background stations and traffic oriented stations
should be part of the monitoring programme in
the designated zones.” (EU CAFÉ Directive)
“Up to date information on concentrations of all regulated pollutants in ambient air should be readily available to the
public.” (EU CAFÉ Directive)
Up-to-date information on Air Pollution: EU and beyond
World Air Quality Index (19th October 2017) http://aqicn.org/map/europe/
ONE STATION IN IRELAND:NOT REPORTING.
(Things can only get better)
Is the future electric?
Yes it is from a roadside air pollution
perspective
No it is not from a climate
change perspective
with our current fossil fuel power
stations
Yes it is from a climate change
perspective when we STOP
generating electricity from
fossil fuels