EVALUATION OF THE NOAA REAL TIME OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM_ATLANTIC AT THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...
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EVALUATION OF THE NOAA EVALUATION OF THE NOAA REAL TIME OCEAN FORECAST REAL TIME OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM_ATLANTIC AT THE SYSTEM_ATLANTIC AT THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER CENTER R.M. Daniels, IMSG @ NOAA / OPC J.M. Sienkiewicz, NOAA / OPC
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Transcript of EVALUATION OF THE NOAA REAL TIME OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM_ATLANTIC AT THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...
EVALUATION OF THE NOAA EVALUATION OF THE NOAA REAL TIME OCEAN FORECAST REAL TIME OCEAN FORECAST
SYSTEM_ATLANTIC AT THE SYSTEM_ATLANTIC AT THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTERCENTER
R.M. Daniels, IMSG @ NOAA / OPCJ.M. Sienkiewicz, NOAA / OPC
OUTLINEOUTLINE•Ocean Prediction CenterOcean Prediction Center
•RT_OFS_ATL vs. Satellite (GOES) SSTRT_OFS_ATL vs. Satellite (GOES) SST – West Atlantic: Jan 2006 – Apr 2007, weeklyWest Atlantic: Jan 2006 – Apr 2007, weekly– Gulf of Mexico: Oct 2006 – Apr 2007, biweeklyGulf of Mexico: Oct 2006 – Apr 2007, biweekly
•Water LevelsWater Levels– Feb – Apr 2007, weeklyFeb – Apr 2007, weekly
•Comparison w/ BuoysComparison w/ Buoys– West Atlantic: Oct 2006 – Apr 2007, dailyWest Atlantic: Oct 2006 – Apr 2007, daily– Gulf of Mexico: Jan 2007 – Apr 2007, dailyGulf of Mexico: Jan 2007 – Apr 2007, daily
• New Parallel ModelNew Parallel Model–Preliminary Analysis: Last weekPreliminary Analysis: Last week
•Future PlansFuture Plans
April NoreasterApril Noreaster
RT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SSTRT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SSTin the West Atlanticin the West Atlantic
GOES SST 03/02/2007RT_OFS_ATL SST 03/02/2007
44004
41009
`̀RT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SSTRT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SST
in the West Atlanticin the West Atlantic
Nowcast
44004
41009
RT_OFS_ATL – GOES SST 03/02/2007
Degre
es
C
RT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SSTRT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SSTin the West Atlanticin the West Atlantic
RT_OFS_ATL – GOES SST 03/02/200724 Hour Forecast
Degre
es
C
44004
41009
RT_OFS_ATL – GOES SST 03/02/2007
48 Hour Forecast 72 Hour Forecast
Degre
es
C
Degre
es
C
96 Hour ForecastD
egre
es
C
120 Hour Forecast
Degre
es
C
120 Hour Forecast
GOES SST March 15, 2007 RT_OFS_ATL SST March 15, 2007
RT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SSTRT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SSTin the Gulf of Mexicoin the Gulf of Mexico
NAVOCEANO GULF FEATURES ANALYSIS March 14, 2007
Gulf of MexicoGulf of Mexico
RT_OFS_ATL CURRENTS March 15, 2007
Gulf of MexicoGulf of Mexico
GOES SST March 15, 2007RT_OFS_ATL SST March 15, 2007
42003
Gulf of MexicoGulf of MexicoRT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST March 15, 2007
RT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST December 20, 2006
RT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST December 27, 2006
RT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST January 2, 2007
RT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST January 3, 2007
WATER LEVELS: NOS STATIONS WATER LEVELS: NOS STATIONS and RT_OFS_ATLand RT_OFS_ATL
Lewes, DE Boston
WATER LEVELS: NOS STATIONS WATER LEVELS: NOS STATIONS and RT_OFS_ATLand RT_OFS_ATL
Nantucket Cape May, NJ
Atlantic Buoys
41001 East Hatteras41002 South Hatteras44004 Hotel44005 Gulf of Maine44008 Nantucket41008 Grays Reef41009 Canaveral41010 Canaveral East
NOAA OFFSHORE BUOYSNOAA OFFSHORE BUOYS
41001
4100241008
4100941010
44004
44005
44008
Gulf of Mexico Buoys
42001 Mid Gulf42002 Western Gulf42003 East Gulf42019 Freeport42020 Corpus Christi42035 Galveston42039 Pensacola42040 Mobile South
NOAA OFFSHORE BUOYSNOAA OFFSHORE BUOYS
420034200142002
4203942019
42020
42035 42040
Buoy 41009 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Atlantic Hourly RMS of RT_OFS_ATL and Buoy SST
forJanuary 2007
Buoy 41001 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 41002 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 44004 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 44005 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 44008 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 41008 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 41010 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 42001 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 42002 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 42003 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 42019 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 42020 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 42035 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 42039 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Buoy 42040 RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Gulf of Mexico Hourly RMS of RT_OFS_ATL and Buoy SST
forJanuary 2007
Average RMS for Atlantic and Gulf of Average RMS for Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Buoys in January 2007Mexico Buoys in January 2007
Atlantic Buoys RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
y = 0.0188x + 2.0832
R2 = 0.6743
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Gulf of Mexico Buoys RMS of Model - Buoy SST for January 2007
y = 0.0431x + 0.8469
R2 = 0.8923
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Small PositiveSlopes
Deg
rees
CD
eg
rees
C+0.02° C / Day
+0.04° C / Day
Atlantic Buoys RMS of Model - Buoy SST for February 2007
y = 0.0563x + 1.9215
R2 = 0.9812
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Gulf of Mexico Buoys RMS of Model - Buoy SST for February 2007
y = 0.0547x + 0.8501
R2 = 0.9703
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Average RMS for Atlantic and Gulf of Average RMS for Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Buoys in February 2007Mexico Buoys in February 2007
Small PositiveSlopes
Deg
rees
CD
eg
rees
C+0.06° C / Day
+0.06° C / Day
Atlantic Buoys RMS of Model - Buoy SST for March 2007
y = 0.0397x + 1.907
R2 = 0.1182
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Gulf Buoys RMS of Model - Buoy SST for March 2007
y = 0.1767x + 0.7599
R2 = 0.3419
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0 Hour 24 Hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 96 Hours 119 Hours
Average RMS for all Atlanic and Gulf of Average RMS for all Atlanic and Gulf of Mexico Buoys in March 2007Mexico Buoys in March 2007
Deg
rees
CD
eg
rees
C
Small PositiveSlopes
+0.04° C / Day
+0.18° C / Day
Average of Daily Difference (Bias) between
RT_OFS - Buoy SST
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
NDBC Buoy
Deg
rees
C
Average of Daily Standard Deviation of
RT_OFS - Buoy SST
0.000.200.400.600.801.001.20
NDBC Buoy
Deg
rees
C
Average of Daily Difference (Bias) between
RT_OFS_ATL - Buoy SST
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
All Buoys Atlantic Buoys Atlantic Buoysw/out 44004
Gulf of MexicoBuoys
Deg
rees
C
Average Daily Standard Deviation of
RT_OFS_ATL - Buoy SST
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
All Buoys Atlantic Buoys Gulf of MexicoBuoys
°
Parallel RT_OFS April 22, 2007 Goes SST April 22, 2007
New Parallel RT_OFS_ATLNew Parallel RT_OFS_ATLin the West Atlanticin the West Atlantic
Parallel RT_OFS – Goes SST April 22, 2007 Parallel RT_OFS – Goes SST April 21, 2007
New Parallel RT_OFS_ATLNew Parallel RT_OFS_ATLin the West Atlanticin the West Atlantic
New Parallel RT_OFS_ATLNew Parallel RT_OFS_ATLin the Gulf of Mexicoin the Gulf of Mexico
Parallel RT_OFS April 22, 2007 Goes SST April 22, 2007
New Parallel RT_OFS_ATLNew Parallel RT_OFS_ATLin the Gulf of Mexicoin the Gulf of Mexico
Parallel RT_OFS – Goes SST April 22, 2007Parallel RT_OFS – Goes SST April 20, 2007
Conclusions and Future Conclusions and Future PlansPlans
• Assimilation Problems in Western Atlantic (Gulf Assimilation Problems in Western Atlantic (Gulf Stream Overshoot and Florida Current) and in Gulf of Stream Overshoot and Florida Current) and in Gulf of Mexico (Loop Current)Mexico (Loop Current)
• RT_OFS_ATL shows only small decrease in Forecast RT_OFS_ATL shows only small decrease in Forecast Capability out to Five DaysCapability out to Five Days
• Compare RT_OFS_ATL with other SST products Compare RT_OFS_ATL with other SST products including the NOAA NCDC Optimum Interpolation 1/4 including the NOAA NCDC Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree Daily SST Analysis (Reynolds & Smith)Degree Daily SST Analysis (Reynolds & Smith)
• Continue Reviewing New Parallel Run of RT_OFS_ATLContinue Reviewing New Parallel Run of RT_OFS_ATL
• Continue and expand analysis of Water LevelsContinue and expand analysis of Water Levels
