Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications
description
Transcript of Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications
![Page 1: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem
Applications Nicholas A. Bond
University of Washington/JISAO
![Page 3: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Outline
• Excerpts from recent work (e.g., Capotondi et al. 2012 and Furtado et al. 2011)
• Results from some CMIP3 runs along with a few CMIP5 runs under the RCP8.5 scenario
• Musings
![Page 4: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Capotondi et al. (2012)2050-2099 vs. 1950-1999
![Page 5: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Capotondi et al. (2012)
mm per day psu
![Page 6: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Capotondi et al. (2012)(Surface to 200 m)
Potential density (kg/m3)
![Page 7: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Changes in February Mixed Layer Depth from Present to 2040s(standard deviations)
![Page 8: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Changes in Mean August Mixed Layer Depth from Present to 2040s(standard deviations)
![Page 9: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Furtado et al. 2011
![Page 13: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Skill of Global Climate Model (DHFP1) for PDO Prediction Lienert (Ph.D., 2011)
![Page 15: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
*Both
*Z
**Z
*Z
*Transport
Transport*
Temperature X-Section
![Page 16: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Parameters Evaluated• Bering Sea - Flow through Unimak Pass
(Nutrient supply); Spring Winds (Larval flatfish transports); Summer SST & Wind Mixing (Sustained productivity); etc.
• Gulf of Alaska - Along-coast winds (Larval fish distribution and abundance); Precipitation (Upper ocean baroclinity and eddy generation)
• NE Pacific - Coastal upwelling (Productivity); Zonal winds (LTL communities); Pycnocline depth; Upper-ocean transports
![Page 17: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Newport
Alaska PeninsulaVancouver Is.
PAPA
Seward Line
*
![Page 18: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
SODA ECHAM5 PCM1
MirocM MirocH MRI
Feb
Aug
Average Temperatures 1990-2000
![Page 19: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
SODA CCCMAT47_1 CCCMAT47_2
CCCMAT47_3 CCCMAT47_4 CCCMAT47_5
Feb
Aug
Average Temperatures 1990-2000
![Page 20: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
*
![Page 21: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Mean Zonal Currents in Vertical Plane along 170 W from SODA
![Page 22: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Mean Zonal Currents in Vertical Plane along 170 WFrom HadGEM2CC and GFDLESM2G models
![Page 23: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Absolute Model Errors
![Page 24: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Quasi-quantitative Assessment of Global Climate Model Capabilities
![Page 25: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Considerations• Recent research (e.g., Furtado et al. 2011)
indicates that current GCMs, in general, do not replicate observed ENSO-North Pacific linkages that well
• Past performance no guarantee of skill in future projections (e.g., Reifen & Toumi 2009)
• Unclear whether weighting or even omitting ensemble members provides any meaningful benefits (e.g. Pierce et al. 2009)
• Inter-model dominates intra-model variability for projections longer than 1-2 decades
• Lack of community consensus on best practices in the use of GCMs for regional applications
![Page 26: Evaluation of IPCC Global Climate Models for North Pacific Marine Ecosystem Applications](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051421/568164e3550346895dd74800/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Final Remarks• From present to mid-21st century, climate change
liable to be dominated by thermodynamic effects as opposed to dynamic effects (e.g., winds).
• Open questions: (1) Are the ocean components of global climate models sufficient for climate/ecosystem studies? (2) Are the new CMIP5 models significantly better than the CMIP3 models? (3) What is the best way to use existing climate model simulations for regional applications?
• The output from global climate models (perhaps subject to statistical downscaling) can complement that from vertically-integrated numerical models with full dynamics.