Evaluation of CONCEPTS Ice-Ocean Forecasting Systems Greg Smith 1, Christiane Beaudoin 1, Alain Caya...
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![Page 1: Evaluation of CONCEPTS Ice-Ocean Forecasting Systems Greg Smith 1, Christiane Beaudoin 1, Alain Caya 1, Mark Buehner 1, Francois Roy 2, Jean-Marc Belanger.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649e405503460f94b325aa/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Evaluation of CONCEPTS Ice-Ocean Forecasting Systems
Greg Smith1, Christiane Beaudoin1, Alain Caya1, Mark Buehner1, Francois Roy2 , Jean-Marc Belanger1, Frederic Dupont1, Fraser Davidson3, Jennifer
Wells3, Tom Carrieres4 , Hal Ritchie5, Youyu Lu6 , Charles-Emmanuel Testut7 and Gilles Garric7
1 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, CANADA2 Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada, Dorval, CANADA
3 Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, CANADA4 Canadian Ice Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa, CANADA
5 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, CANADA6 Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford, CANADA
7Mercator-Océan, Toulouse, FRANCE
GODAE Oceanview Workshop, Santa Cruz, USA (Jun 13-17, 2011)
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OutlineOutline
• Operational Gulf of St. Lawrence Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Forecasting System
• CONCEPTS Objectives
• Global Forecasting System
– Evaluation with AVHRR and Radarsat
• NW Atlantic/Arctic Forecasting System
– Evaluation against IMS analyses
• Future Work and Interests
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The Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) Coupled Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS-CGSL)
-5°C-5°C
-15°C-15°C
-25°C-25°C
• Operational regional forecasting system (GEM-Ops) has tendency to overestimate cold events in winter.
• Increased heat fluxes in coupled system buffers air temperatures and improves forecasts
• Demonstrates importance of air-sea-ice coupling even for short-range weather forecasts
• Coupled GSL system now operational at CMC
– as of last week!
S. Desjardins
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CONCEPTS
• Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental Prediction Systems
• Aim:– Development of Regional and Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Development of Regional and Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean
Forecasting SystemsForecasting Systems
– Global coupled medium-to-monthly forecasting system:▪ GEM atmospheric model and 4DVAR/EnKF analysis system▪ Coupled to 1/4° resolution (ORCA025) NEMO ice-ocean model▪ Ocean initialized using Mercator analysis system (PSY3)▪ Initially: produce 10 day uncoupled ice-ocean forecasts
– Regional short-term forecasting system▪ Preparation and issuing service for MET/NAVAREAS 17&18▪ Build on developments made by CNOOFS (F. Davidson et al.) ▪ Coupled to CMC regional forecasting system (RDPS)▪ Based on subdomain of ORCA12 for NW Atlantic + Arctic
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CONCEPTS Global - V0
• Ice-ocean model:– NEMO v3.1 : OPA9 ocean model and LIM2-EVP sea ice– ORCA025: Global tri-polar 1/4° resolution
• Atmospheric forcing from GEM Global (GDPS; 33km)– Forced using CORE bulk formula– 3hrly forcing frequency (including diurnal cycle)
• Initialization:– Ice and ocean fields taken from Mercator (PSY3V2) analysis
• Output:– Weekly 10-day forecasts of ocean and ice fields
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Comparison with AVHRR SST observations
• Differences taken between AVHRR SST data and hourly output from weekly forecasts.
• Statistics accumulated for each day for forecasts made from May 20, 2009 to Mar 23, 2010.
• Results shown for day 10 of forecasts
• Poor coverage in polar regions and due to cloud cover
Mean
Std. dev.
Number of comparisons
F. Roy
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Comparison with AVHRR SST observations
Mean
Std. dev.
Mean
Std. dev.
Day 1 Day 10
Development of warm bias
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Comparison with AVHRR SST observations
Mean
Std. dev.
Mean
Std. dev.
Day 1 Day 10
Cold bias present in analysis
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Regional RMS differences with AVHRR SST
• CMC SST analysis has smaller RMS diff for day1
• Similar error growth in both persistence curves
• Forecast beat persistence of analysis for most regions
• Forecasts show smaller diff as compared to persistence of CMC SST analyses for N. Atl, N. Pac and T. Ind.
Forecasts
Persistence of SAM2 analyses
Persistence of CMC analyses
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CONCEPTS Global V1
• AIM: Produce daily analyses and 10day forecasts.
• Based on PSY3V2, with following modifications:– Updated SAM2 to NEMOv3.1, with LIM2-EVP(done)– Assimilate CMC-SST analysis (in place of RTG)(done)– Ocean analysis merged with 3DVAR-FGAT ice analysis (done)– Daily analysis updates (planned)
• Status:– Modifications to SAM2 ongoing– Routine production of ice-ocean analyses since Dec. 2010– Evaluation of ice-ocean forecasts underway– Starting initial trials of coupled runs.
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CMC/CIS Sea-ice Analysis System
• Uses 3DVAR-FGAT, with covariances obtained from EnKF
• North American Analysis: • Four analyses per day of ice
concentration at 5 km resolution
• Global Analysis: • two analyses per day on 10km grid
• Currently assimilates: • SSM/I, AMSR-E, CIS daily charts,
RadarSAT image analyses
• Work in progress to add:• SSMIS, scatterometer, visible-infrared,
SAR and ice thickness satellite-based observations
M. Buehner
SSM/I AMSR-E
CIS Chart RadarSAT
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Verification against NOAA IMS analyses
• Evaluation of 5km North American analyses
• Based on contingency tables values
• Uses threshold of 0.4 for ice/noice
• Overestimation of ice cover in CMC operational analysis during melt
M. Buehner
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CONCEPTS Global V1
• AIM: Produce daily analyses and 10day forecasts.
• Based on PSY3V2, with following modifications:– Updated SAM2 to NEMOv3.1, with LIM2-EVP(done)– Assimilate CMC-SST analysis (in place of RTG)(done)– Ocean analysis merged with 3DVAR-FGAT ice analysis (done)– Daily analysis updates (planned)
• Status:– Modifications to SAM2 ongoing– Routine production of ice-ocean analyses since Dec. 2010– Evaluation of ice-ocean forecasts underway– Starting initial trials of coupled runs.
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Comparison with PSY3V2R2
• Difference after 28 cycles (valid 20091125)
• Cycle started 20090513
• Impact of changes to SST assimilation
• Difference in SSS due to relaxation timescale, atm forcing and ice assimilation
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Verification against Radarsat
• Evaluation of 30 day ice forecasts
• Model appears to have some skill in predicting mean ice cover, but ice dynamics is still a challenge…
• Careful analysis required to understand small-scale details represented in Radarsat image analyses
CIS Radarsat image analysis
Labrador Sea
Model (mean error)
Model (std. dev.)
Persistence of CMCICE (mean error)
Persistence of CMCICE (std dev)
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CONCEPTS Regional forecasting system
• C-NOOFS: Canadian-Newfoundland Operational Oceanographic Forecasting System
• Lead: F. Davidson (NAFC)• Produces daily 10-day forecasts at 1/12°
resolution for the Northwest Atlantic • Initialized using Mercator data assimilation
system (PSY2). • Merged with 3DVAR-FGAT ice analysis• Designed to meet needs of Coast Guard and
Navy, as well as variety of applications influenced by sea ice
C-NOOFS
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CNOOFS Comparison with Spring Survey
• Comparison of bottom temperature from 2010 Spring Survey of Grand Banks for
– NWA025 (~PSY3V2R2)– NWA12 (~PSY2V3R1)
F. Davidson
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EC/MSC’s involvement in METAREA’s
• Development of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system in support of METAREA monitoring and warnings.
• Development of short-term marine forecast system using a regional high resolution coupled multi-component modelling (atmosphere, land, snow, ice, ocean, wave) and data assimilation system
• To predict:- Near Surface atmospheric conditions,- Sea ice (concentration, pressure, drift, ice edge)
- Freezing spray,- Waves, and- Ocean conditions (temperature and currents)
• Improved Arctic monitoring
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Regional Coupled Forecasting System
• Build on CNOOFS and Coupled GSL
• Develop coupled forecasting system for N. America/Arctic
• Couple NEMO to GEM regional (10km)
• 5km LAM over METAREAS 17&18
• with 5km Atm 4DVAR/EnKF
• 1/12th regional SAM2
• Produce 48hr weather and marine forecasts
C-NOOFS
1/12°
GEM RDPS
10km
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Plans and interests
• CONCEPTS Global:– Running 1/4° global 10day forecasting system since Dec. 2010– Operational transfer in coming year– Next steps:
▪ produce daily analyses and ▪ improve consistency of ice and ocean analyses
• CONCEPTS Regional– Develop/evaluate N.Atl/Arctic coastal 1/12th NEMO– Begin work on 1/12th regional data assimilation system
• Evaluation and intercomparison of ice-covered waters– Ice thickness (Radarsat, Cryosat, AVHRR)– Marginal ice zone (MIZ)– How can ice rheologies be improved to better represent fine-scale ice
deformations over short lead times?– How do we constrain the ocean under-ice and in the MIZ?