Evaluate, Enhance, and Apply Aura Products in Public Health

Tracking – Year 2 Report

Yang Liu

September 20-21, 2016

Asheville, NC

Study Motivation I

q  IntheUS,skincancercostsanes1mated$1.7billiontotreatandresultsin$3.8billioninlostproduc1vity.Themostseveretypeofskincancer,melanoma,causesover75%ofskincancerdeaths(~9,500/yr).

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q  Thelife1meriskofanAmericandevelopinginvasivemelanomais1in59(1in39forwhitemenand1in58inwhitewomen)(Rigeletal.2010)

Study Motivation II

q UVradia1onderivedfromsunexposureiswell-knowntobethemostimportantcauseofskincancer.

q UVexposuredatausedinlarge-scalemelanomaepidemiologicresearchhasingeneralbeenes1matedfromweatherparametersandarepoorlyvalidated.q  UVindexpublishedbyNWSq  TOMSUVmeasurementsq  Na1onalSolarRadia1onDatabase(NSRDB)bythe

Na1onalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)

Research Team

q Emory:YangLiu(PI),FutuChen,JesseBelle,XiaMeng

q U.Nebraska(nowatU.Iowa):JunWangq CDCEPHT:JudyQualters,FuyuenYip,andYingZhou

q CDCDivisionofCancerPreven1onandControl(DCPC):BlytheRyersonandTomRichards,JaneHenley

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q Developacounty-level,solarradia1onandUVexposuredatasetfortheNa1onalEnvironmentalPublicHealthTracking(EPHT)networkatCDCtodistributethroughtheirna1onalportal

q Provideannualsolarradia1onandUVexposurees1matestotheDivisionofCancerPreven1onandControl(DCPC)atCDContheirmelanomaepidemiologicalmodelingeffort

Yr 2 Study Objectives

Milestones

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Milestones Deadline Team Status Generation of OMI UV data 04/2016 UNL Complete Generation of UV exposures for DCPC

04/2016 Emory /CDC

Complete

Health and exposure data integration in GIS for Tracking

04/2016 Emory /CDC

Complete

Epidemiological study 04/2017 Emory /CDC

Ongoing

Data Transition to CDC 11/2016 Emory Ongoing Documentation & metadata preparation

04/2017 Emory Ongoing

Training and outreach 04/2017 Emory Ongoing

Exposure Datasets q  SolarAnywhere

q  Proprietary,widelyusedbyenergyindustryq  ReliesonGOESimageryandAquaMODISAOD,modeled

withGOCARTq  GlobalHorizontalIrradiance(measureofinsola1on,unit:

Wh/m2)at0.1°resolu1onfor1998–2012q  Permissionobtainedtodistributeaggregateddataon

Trackingportal

q NSRDBversion2q  Hourlyground-measuredandmodeledGHIvaluesat1,300

sitesfortheyears1991-2010

Trend of SolarAnywhere GHI

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Solar radiation exposure is better estimated for individual patients instead of using long-term averages

County-level, unweighted arithmetic annual mean daily total GHI

NSRDB Spatial Modeling

q  Correla1onsbetweenSolarAnywhereandNSRDBwerehigh,withsite-specificcorrela1onsrangingfrom0.84to0.98withanaverageof0.94

q  Firstspa1allyinterpolateNSRDBdatatocoun1es,thenmergewithSolarAnywheretoextendtheoverallsolarradia1on1meseries

q UniversalKrigingwitheleva1onasthefixedeffectwasappliedtotheNSRDBdatatocalculatedcounty-levelGHIes1mates

q Datamergingisunderway

OMI UV Data Processing

q  Level2OMUVBproducts(spa1alresolu1on13x24km)betweenOctober1,2004andMay31,2014wereprocessed.

q Morerecentdataarecurrentlybeingprocessedq  Firstparametertoextract:Erythemallyweighteddailydose(EDD)(Unit:J/m2)

q  Spa1allyjoinedtocoun1es

Interannual Trend of OMI UV Radiation

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Annual mean erythemally weighted daily dose (EDD) of UV radiation has been gradually increasing by ~1% per year over the past decade

Epidemiological Study

q OurDCPCpartnersdevelopedgeneralizedlinearmixedmodels(GLMM)toanalyzetheassocia1onbetweenmelanomaincidenceratesandUVexposure

q  Expectedcountsofmelanomaineachcountystra1fiedbysexandbyagegroupwerecalculatedandusedasdependentvariables(statetreatedasarandomeffect)

q  Covariatesmayincludeeduca1on,poverty,householdincome,healthinsurance,indoortanning,rural-urbanstatus,etc.

l𝐨𝐠( 𝒀↓𝒊𝒋 )=(𝜸↓𝟎 + 𝝁↓𝟎𝒋 )+(𝜸↓𝟏 + 𝝁↓𝟏𝒋 )𝑼𝐕+∑↑▒(𝜸↓𝒌 + 𝝁↓𝒌𝒋 ) 𝑪𝒐𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒔+ 𝜺↓𝒊𝒋 

Preliminary Results Based on GHI

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All Stages Early-stage Late-stageSex / Global Horizontal Irradiance Rate Ratio Rate Ratio Rate RatioMalesLow (3149-3913) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)Medium (3914-4502) 1.13 1.14 1.11High (4503-5873) 1.24 1.27 1.28

FemalesLow (3149-3913) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)Medium (3914-4502) 1.03 1.05 1.02High (4503-5873) 1.04 1.06 1.14

CombinedLow (3149-3913) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)Medium (3914-4502) 1.09 1.10 1.08High (4503-5873) 1.16 1.18 1.23

Men tend to have higher risks of developing melanoma than women when exposed to high-level of solar radiation

Application Readiness Level Status

q  StartofprojectARL=3q  CurrentARL=6q  Milestone1:County-averageSolarAnywheredatahavebeendeliveredtoDCPCinFebruary.County-averageNSRDBdataarebeingprocessedforTracking.OMIUVdataarebeingprocessedforTracking.

q  Milestone2:WripenapprovalhasbeenobtainedfromthevendorofSolarAnywhereforportalpublica1on.WehavemetwithTrackinginJuneandthefinalformatfordatadeliveryhasbeendecided.Codedevelopmentfordataproduc1onisinprogress.

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Budget

q  Emoryyr2budgethasbeenfullyallocated.

q  Aposi1vebalancewascarriedoverfromyr2becauseDr.JunWanghasbeentransi1oningfromUNLtoUIthepastyearandittooksome1metoestablishanewsubawardwithUI(executedinSeptember)

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Risks and Issues!

q Technical Challenges!q  It took over two years to get approval to

access the indoor tanning data from the Census RDC!

q  We are in the final stage to complete all the required security clearance !

q  Actual data extraction will take place in Yr 3 but full implementation of this dataset in DCPC’s epidemiological study may be pushed to the NCE period!

Plan for Year 3

q  CompleteSolarAnywhere,NSRDB,andOMIdataproduc1onanddelivery

q  Completemetadataprepara1onforTrackingportaldissemina1on

q  Par1cipateinTrackingoutreacheffortstoadver1seourdataproducts

q  AccessandextractCensusindoortanningdataq DeliverindoortanningdatatoDCPCq WorkwithDCPCandTrackingonmanuscriptprepara1on

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